death toll from coal power expansion in vietnam
TRANSCRIPT
Impacts of planned coal-fired
power plant expansion on air
quality and health in VietnamLauri Myllyvirta, coal and air pollution specialist,
Greenpeace East Asia
Existing coal-fired power
plants in Mekong Region
Existing coal-fired power plants
(gray) and new projects (red)
Current annual average PM2.5 level
attributed to coal-fired power plants
μg/m3
Projected future PM2.5 level
attributed to coal-fired power plants
μg/m3
Current Nov-Apr average ozone
levels attributed to coal power
μg/m3
Projected Nov-Apr average ozone
levels from new coal power
μg/m3
Assessing health impacts
Total population in each grid location
Current number of deaths from different
air-pollution-related causes in Vietnam
and neighboring countries
Increase in PM2.5 and ozone due to coal
emissions
Increase in risk of diseases with higher
pollution exposure (epidemiological
studies)
Total health impacts caused by coal
power emissions
Estimated current health impacts
of coal power plants in Vietnam
Within
Vietnam Total
PM2.5
exposure to
adults
Stroke 1670 2020
Ischemic
Heart Disease 1130 1660
Lung Cancer 310 410
Other
cardiovascular
diseases 350 450
Respiratory
diseases 500 690
PM2.5
exposure to
children
Lower
Respiratory
Infections 60 70
Ozone
exposure to
adults
Respiratory
diseases240 720
Total
Central 4300 6000
Low 2400 3300
High 6300 8900
Projected future health impacts
of coal power plants in Vietnam
Within
Vietnam Total
PM2.5
exposure to
adults
Stroke 8200 10040
Ischemic
Heart Disease 5210 8650
Lung Cancer 2300 2980
Other
cardiovascular
diseases 1420 1980
Respiratory
diseases 2710 3800
PM2.5
exposure to
children
Lower
Respiratory
Infections 130 180
Ozone
exposure to
adults
Respiratory
diseases1170 2420
Total
Central 21100 30100
Low 11900 16700
High 31000 44200
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
China China keyregions
EuropeanUnion
U.S. India,proposed
Vietnam
mg/N
m3 (
@6% O
2)
Emission limits for new coal-fired power plants
SO2 NOx Dust
RE the mainstay of power
generation investments
Globally, 2014 was the first year when renewable
energy use grew more than fossil fuels
In U.S. and Europe, majority of new generating capacity
is powered by renewable energy; coal is on the decline
China’s coal use is falling and all of electricity demand
growth is being covered from non-fossil sources, mainly
renewable energy
Policy recommendations
Include cumulative air quality and
health impact assessment into
planning for power plants and
industry, including long range
transport
Publish plant-level emission data in
real-time and annually
Enables impact assessment
Improves enforcement
Already being done in U.S. and China
Policy recommendations
Further investment into cleaner
energy sources and better emission
control equipment
Update air emission standards to
match other developing and developed
countries
Re-assess the generation sources in
light of
Health impacts and societal costs
Rapid reductions in cost of renewable
energy – majority of investment already
goes to renewables in China, U.S. and
Europe
Thank you!
Extra slides
Emissions(SO2, NOx, dust)
Dispersion & chemistry in the atmosphere
Population exposure to PM2.5
Health impacts
Coal power plant database developed for the project
Cutting-edge atmospheric model (Geos-Chem) at Harvard University
High-resolution population density maps from NASA
Results of large epidemiological studies
Death rates from lung cancer, stroke, heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and lower respiratory infections in each country
Emission rates from official statistics, companies and academic studies
National emission standards
Fuel use data from the IEA
Methodology - impact pathway approach