death toll from coal power expansion in vietnam

17
Impacts of planned coal-fired power plant expansion on air quality and health in Vietnam Lauri Myllyvirta, coal and air pollution specialist, Greenpeace East Asia

Upload: lauri-myllyvirta

Post on 14-Apr-2017

355 views

Category:

Health & Medicine


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Impacts of planned coal-fired

power plant expansion on air

quality and health in VietnamLauri Myllyvirta, coal and air pollution specialist,

Greenpeace East Asia

Page 2: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Existing coal-fired power

plants in Mekong Region

Page 3: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Existing coal-fired power plants

(gray) and new projects (red)

Page 4: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Current annual average PM2.5 level

attributed to coal-fired power plants

μg/m3

Page 5: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Projected future PM2.5 level

attributed to coal-fired power plants

μg/m3

Page 6: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Current Nov-Apr average ozone

levels attributed to coal power

μg/m3

Page 7: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Projected Nov-Apr average ozone

levels from new coal power

μg/m3

Page 8: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Assessing health impacts

Total population in each grid location

Current number of deaths from different

air-pollution-related causes in Vietnam

and neighboring countries

Increase in PM2.5 and ozone due to coal

emissions

Increase in risk of diseases with higher

pollution exposure (epidemiological

studies)

Total health impacts caused by coal

power emissions

Page 9: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Estimated current health impacts

of coal power plants in Vietnam

Within

Vietnam Total

PM2.5

exposure to

adults

Stroke 1670 2020

Ischemic

Heart Disease 1130 1660

Lung Cancer 310 410

Other

cardiovascular

diseases 350 450

Respiratory

diseases 500 690

PM2.5

exposure to

children

Lower

Respiratory

Infections 60 70

Ozone

exposure to

adults

Respiratory

diseases240 720

Total

Central 4300 6000

Low 2400 3300

High 6300 8900

Page 10: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Projected future health impacts

of coal power plants in Vietnam

Within

Vietnam Total

PM2.5

exposure to

adults

Stroke 8200 10040

Ischemic

Heart Disease 5210 8650

Lung Cancer 2300 2980

Other

cardiovascular

diseases 1420 1980

Respiratory

diseases 2710 3800

PM2.5

exposure to

children

Lower

Respiratory

Infections 130 180

Ozone

exposure to

adults

Respiratory

diseases1170 2420

Total

Central 21100 30100

Low 11900 16700

High 31000 44200

Page 11: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

China China keyregions

EuropeanUnion

U.S. India,proposed

Vietnam

mg/N

m3 (

@6% O

2)

Emission limits for new coal-fired power plants

SO2 NOx Dust

Page 12: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

RE the mainstay of power

generation investments

Globally, 2014 was the first year when renewable

energy use grew more than fossil fuels

In U.S. and Europe, majority of new generating capacity

is powered by renewable energy; coal is on the decline

China’s coal use is falling and all of electricity demand

growth is being covered from non-fossil sources, mainly

renewable energy

Page 13: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Policy recommendations

Include cumulative air quality and

health impact assessment into

planning for power plants and

industry, including long range

transport

Publish plant-level emission data in

real-time and annually

Enables impact assessment

Improves enforcement

Already being done in U.S. and China

Page 14: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Policy recommendations

Further investment into cleaner

energy sources and better emission

control equipment

Update air emission standards to

match other developing and developed

countries

Re-assess the generation sources in

light of

Health impacts and societal costs

Rapid reductions in cost of renewable

energy – majority of investment already

goes to renewables in China, U.S. and

Europe

Page 15: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Thank you!

Page 16: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Extra slides

Page 17: Death toll from coal power expansion in Vietnam

Emissions(SO2, NOx, dust)

Dispersion & chemistry in the atmosphere

Population exposure to PM2.5

Health impacts

Coal power plant database developed for the project

Cutting-edge atmospheric model (Geos-Chem) at Harvard University

High-resolution population density maps from NASA

Results of large epidemiological studies

Death rates from lung cancer, stroke, heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and lower respiratory infections in each country

Emission rates from official statistics, companies and academic studies

National emission standards

Fuel use data from the IEA

Methodology - impact pathway approach