dec. 13, 2003 [email protected] 1 quality control of weather radar data...

Dec. 13, 2003 [email protected] 1

Quality Control of Weather Radar Data

[email protected] Severe Storms Laboratory &

University of Oklahoma

Norman OK, USAhttp://cimms.ou.edu/~lakshman/


Weather Radar

Weather forecasting relies on observations using remote sensors. Models initialized using observations Severe weather warnings rely on real-time

observations.

Weather radars provide the highest resolution In time: a complete 3D scan every 5-15 minutes In space: 0.5-1 degree x 0.25-1km tilts Vertically: 0.5 to 2 degrees elevation angles


NEXRAD – WSR-88D

Weather radars in the United States Are 10cm Doppler radars

Measure both reflectivity and velocity. Spectrum width information also provided. Very little attenuation with range Can “see” through thunderstorms

Horizontal resolution 0.95 degrees (365 radials) 1km for reflectivity, 0.25km for velocity

Horizontal range 460km surveillance (reflectivity-only) scan 230km scans at higher tilts, and velocity at lowest tilt.


NEXRAD volume coverage pattern

The radar sweeps a tilt.

Then moves up and sweeps another tilt.

Typically collects all the moments at once Except at lowest

scan The 3dB beam width

is about 1-degree.


Beam path

Path of the radar beam slightly refracted earth curvature Standard atmosphere:

4/3 Anamalous propagation

Beam heavily refracted Non-standard

atmospheric condition Ground clutter: senses

ground.


Anomalous Propagation

Buildings near the radar.

Reflectivity values correspond to values typical of hail.

Automated algorithms severely affected.


AP + biological

North of the radar is some ground-clutter.

The light green echo probably corresponds to migrating birds.

The sky is actually clear.


AP + precipitation

AP north of the radar A line of

thunderstorms to the east of the radar.

Some clear-air return around the radar.


Small cells embedded in rain

The strong echoes here are really precipitation.

Notice the smooth green area.


Not rain

This green area is not rain, however.

Probably biological.


Clear-air return

Clear-air return near the radar

Mostly insects and debris after the thunderstorm passed through.


Chaff

The high reflectivity lines are not storms.

Metallic strips released by the military.


Terrain

The high-reflectivity region is actually due to ice on the mountains.

The beam has been refracted downward.


Radar Data Quality

Radar data is high resolution, and is very useful.However, it is subject to many

contaminants.Human users can usually tell good data from

bad.Automated algorithms find it difficult to do so.


Motivation

Why improve radar data quality?McGrath et al (2002) showed that the

mesocyclone detection algorithm (Stumpf et al, Weather and Forecasting, 1999) produces the majority of its false detections in clear-air.

The presence of AP degrades the performance of a storm identification and motion estimation algorithm (Lakshmanan et al, J. Atmos. Research, 2003)


Quality Control of Radar Data

An extensively studied problem.Simplistic approaches:

Threshold the data (low=bad)High=bad for AP, terrain, chaffLow=good in mesocylones, hurricane eye, etc.

Vertical tilt testsWorks for APFails farther from the radar, shallow

precipitation.


Image processing techniques

Typically based on median filtering reflectivity dataRemoves clear-air return, but fails for AP.Fails in spatially smooth clear-air return.Smoothes the data

Insufficiently tested techniquesFractal techniques.Neural network approaches.


Steiner and Smith

Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2002 A simple rule-base. Introduced more sophisticated measures

Echo top: the highest tilt that has at least 5dBZ. Works mostly. Fails in heavy AP, shallow precipitation.

Inflections Measure of variability within a local neighborhood of pixel. A texture measure suited to scalar data.

Their hard thresholds are not reliable.


Radar Echo Classifier

Operationally implemented on US radar product generators

Fuzzy logic technique (Kessinger, AMS 2002) Uses all three moments of radar data

Insight: targets that are not moving have zero velocity, and low spectrum width.

High reflectivity values usually good. Those that are not moving are probably AP.

Also makes use of Steiner-Smith measures Not vertical (echo-top) features (to retain tilt-by-tilt ability)

Good for human users, but not for automated use


Radar Echo Classifier

Finds the good data and the AP.

But can not be used to reliably discriminate the two on a pixel-by-pixel basis.


Quality Control Neural Network

Compute texture features on three moments. Vertical features on latest (“virtual”) volume

Can clean up tilts as they arrive and still utilize vertical features.

Train neural network off-line on these features to classify pixels into precip or non-precip at every

scan of the radar.

Use classification results to clean up the data field in real-time.


The set of input features

Computed in 5x5 polar neighborhood around each pixel.

For velocity and spectrum width:MeanVariance (Kessinger)value-mean


Reflectivity Features

Lowest two tilts of reflectivity:MeanVarianceValue-meanSquare diff of pixel values (Kessinger)Homogeneity radial inflections (Steiner-Smith)echo size

found through region-growing


Vertical Features

Vertical profile of reflectivitymaximum value across tiltsweighted average with the tilt angle as the

weightdifference between data values at the two

lowest scans (Fulton)echo top height at a 5dBZ threshold

(Steiner-Smith)Compute these on a “virtual volume”


Training the Network

How many patterns?Cornelius et al. (1995) used a neural

network to do radar quality controlResulting classifier not useful

discarded in favor of fuzzy logic Radar Echo Classifier.

Used < 500 user-selected pixels to train the network.

Does not capture the diversity of the data.Skewed distribution.


Diversity of data?

Need to have data cases that coverShallow precipitation Ice in the atmosphereAP, ground-clutter (high data values that are

bad)Clear-air returnMesocyclones (low data values that are

good)


Distribution of data

Not a climatalogical distribution Most days, there is no weather, so low reflectivities (non-

precipitating) predominate. We need good performance in weather situations.

Need to avoid bias in selecting pixels – choose all pixels in storm echo, for example, not just the storm core

Neural networks perform best when trained with equally likely classes At any value of reflectivity, both classes should be equally

likely Need to find data cases to meet this criterion. Another reason why previous neural network attempts failed.


Distribution of training data by reflectivity values


Training the network

Human experts classified the training data by marking bad echoes.Had access to time-sequence and

knowledge of the event.Training data was 8 different volume

scans that captured the diversity of the data.1 million patterns.


The Neural Network

Fully feed-forward neural network. Trained using resilient propagation with weight

decay. Error measure was modified cross-entropy.

Modified to weight different patterns differently.

Separate validation set of 3 volume scans used to choose the number of hidden nodes and to stop the training.


Emphasis

Weight the patterns differently because: Not all patterns are equally useful.

Given a choice, we’d like to make our mistakes on low reflectivities. We don’t have enough “contrary” examples.

Texture features are inconsistent near boundaries of storms. Vertical features unusable at far ranges.

Does not change the overall distribution to a large extent.


Histograms of different features

The best discriminants: Homogeneity Height of

maximum Inflections Variance of

spectrum width.


Generalization

No way to guarantee generalizationSome ways we avoided overfitting

Use the validation set (not the training set) to decide:

Number of hidden nodes When to stop the network training

Weight-decayLimited network complexity

<10 hidden nodes, ~25 inputs, >500,000 patterns

Emphasize certain patterns


Untrainable data case

None of the features we have can discriminate the clear-air return from good precipitation.

Essentially removed the migratory birds from the training set.


Velocity

We don’t always have velocity data. In the US weather radars,

Reflectivity data available to 460km Velocity data available to 230km

But higher resolution.

Velocity data can be range-folded Function of Nyquist frequency

Two different networks One with velocity (and spectrum width) data Other without velocity (or spectrum width) data


Choosing the network

Training the with-velocity and without-velocity networks

Shown is the validation error as training progresses for different numbers of hidden nodes

Choose 5 nodes for with-velocity (210th epoch) and 4 nodes for without-velocity (310th epoch) networks.


Behavior of training error

Training error keeps decreasing.

Validation error starts to increase after a while. Assume that point

this happens is where the network starts to get overfit.


Performance measure

Use a testing data set which is completely independent of the training and validation data sets.

Compared against classification by human experts.


Receiver Operating Characteristic

A perfect classifier would be flush top and flush left.

If you need to retain 90% of good data, then you’ll have to live with 20% of the bad data when using the QCNN Existing NWS

technique forces you to live with 55% of the bad data.


Performance (AP test case)


Performance (strong convection)


Test case (ground clutter)


Test case (small cells)


Summary

A radar-only quality control algorithmUses texture features derived from 3 radar

momentsRemoves bad data pixels corresponding to

AP, ground clutter, clear-air impulse returnsDoes not reliably remove biological targets such

as migrating birds.Works in all sorts of precipitation regimes

Does not remove bad data except toward the edges of storms.


Multi-sensor Aspect

There are other sensors observing the same weather phenomena.

If there are no clouds on satellite, then it is likely that there is no precipitation either.Can’t use the visible channel of satellite at

night.


Surface Temperature

Use infrared channel of weather satellite images.Radiance to temperature relationship exists.

If the ground is being sensed, the temperature will be ground temperature.

If satellite “cloud-top” temperature is less than the surface temperature, cloud-cover exists.


Spatial and Temporal considerations

Spatial and temporal resolutionRadar tilts arrive every 20-30s

High spatial resolution (1km x 1-degree)Satellite data every 30min

4km resolutionSurface temperature 2 hours old

20km resolution

Fast-moving storms and small cells can pose problems.


Spatial …

For reasonably-sized complexes, both satellite infrared temperature and surface temperature are smooth fields.

Bilinear interpolation is effective.


Temporal

Estimate motion Use high-resolution radar to estimate motion.

Advect the cloud-top temperature Based on movement from radar Advection has high skill under 30min.

Assume surface temperature does not change 1-2 hr model forecast has no skill above

persistence forecast.


Cloud-cover: Step 1

Satellite infrared temperature field. Blue is colder Typically higher

storms A thin line of fast-

moving storms A large thunderstorm

complex


Cloud-cover: Step 4

Forecast to move east, and decrease in intensity.

This forecast is made based on radar data.


Cloud-cover: Step 2

Combined data from 4 different radars.

Two “views” of the same phenomenon – the different sensors measure different things, and have different constraints.


Cloud-cover: Step 3

Estimates of motion and growth-and-decay made using KMeans texture segmentation and tracking.

Red – eastward motion.


Cloud-cover: Step 4

The forecast is for 43 minutes – time difference between satellite image and radar tilt.


Cloud-cover: Step 5

Surface temperature 20kmx20km spatial

resolution 2 hours old Interpolated from

data from weather stations around the country Best we have.


Cloud-cover: Step 6

Difference field White – temperature

difference more than 20K.

5K is a very conservative threshold.


Distribution of cloud-cover

Two precipitation cases May 8, 2003 July 30, 2003

Indicate that cloud-cover values more than 15K minimum.


Multi-sensor QC: Step 1

Original data from July 11, 2003 (KTLX)

Large amount of contamination. Clear-air Probably biological



Result of applying the radar-only neural network.

Most of the clear-air contamination is gone.

Possible precipitation north-west of the radar.



Cloud-cover field Some cloud-cover

north-west of the radar.

Nothing to the south of the radar.

5K threshold corresponds to the light blues.



Result of applying cloud-cover field to NN output.

Small cells retained, but biological contamination removed.


Conclusion

The radar-only neural network outperforms the currently operational quality-control technique.Can be improved even further using data

from other sensors.Needs more systematic examination.

dec. 13, 2003 [email protected] 1 quality control of weather radar data...

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