dec 29 2015 mag 4.8 earthquakeprobus-northshorevancouver.ca/images/pdf/speakers...(translaon, h....
TRANSCRIPT
Dec292015Mag4.8
EarthquakeTuesday,11:39PMlocalAmeLocated17kmNNEofVictoria(80kmsouthofUBC)“Deep”intraslabearthquake
at52kmdepthFeltacrosssouthernVancouverIslandandLowerMainlandNosignificantdamageNocasualAes
‘Wehavetoworryaboutamagnitude-7-to7.5intraslabearthquakelocated31milesbeneathSeaAleorVancouver.’geologistSimonPeacocksays.USAToday,Oct.29,1999
2001 Nisqually (Olympia) Earthquake • Feb.28,2001,10:55AM• Mw=6.8• Depth=52km• LocatedbetweenTacomaandOlympia• Upto40secondsoflocalgroundshaking• ~400injured,1death• $2+billiondamage
March11,2011ImagineyouareinTokyo,workingonyourcomputer:hXp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-FMpNBfna8AndthenyouturnonyourTV:hXp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3AdFjklR50
Houses were washed away by tsunami in Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture in eastern Japan, after Japan was struck by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the northeastern coast. New York Times
The tsunami, seen crashing into homes in Natori, Miyagi prefecture. AP
Part of houses swallowed by tsunami burn in Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture (state) after Japan was struck by a strong earthquake off its northeastern coast Friday, March 11, 2011. New York Times
2011TohokuEarthquake(NEJapan)Friday,March11,2011at2:46PMlocalAmeMagnitude9.0–fourthlargestsince1900Generatedpowerfultsunamiupto40metershigh
• swept>10kminland(Sendaiplain)• inundatedarea>550km2
15,894deaths+2,572missingpersons+1,600evacuaAondeaths300,000evacuees(230,000sAlldisplaced)125,000+buildingsdestroyed;onemilliondamagedEst.economiccost(WorldBank)=US$235billionReal-AmeearthquakewarningissuedFukushimaDaiichinuclearpowerplant–heavilydamaged,parAal
meltdowns,radioacAvityrelease,clean-upongoingJapan–historyofdevastaAngearthquakes,tsunamis
-1923GreatKantoEQ,M7.9,143,000deaths-excellentbuildingcodes,seismicmonitoring,plans,etc.
InferreddistribuAonofslipforthegreat11March2011TohokuEarthquakebasedoninverAngfourdifferentdatasets(Yokotaetal.,2011)
Simonsetal.(2011)
Pre-EQGPS
AserEQ
hXp://eqseis.geosc.psu.edu/~cammon/Japan2011EQ/
Red=mainshocksandasershocksof11March2011earthquake
HeadquartersforEarthquakeResearchPromoAon
2011TohokuEarthquake(NEJapan)Earlyalertsystemsavedmanythousandsoflives
80bullettrainsstoppedsafely98%TVstaConsbroadcastalerts52millioncellphonealerts
BUT-thesizeoftheearthquakeandthetsunamiweresignificantlyunderesCmated,bothpriortotheearthquakeandinrealCmealertsmessages.LackofindependentoversightandregulaConofJapanesenuclearpowerindustry
hNp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=xYctjv7ouBc
P-waves(~6.4km/s)travelfasterthantheS-waves(~3.7km/s)andsurfacewavesthatcausegroundshaking.Electronstravelwayfasterthanseismicwaves!
LivecoverageofJapanparliamentarysessioninTokyo,370kmfromepicenter
Notes Update number
Time since first P-wave
detection (sec)
Estimated magnitude
Estimated maximum shaking
intensity (JMA scale)
Lat Lon Depth (km)
Origin time
1st assessment of the event, 5.4 sec after 1st P-wave
detection
1 5.4 4.3 1 38.2 142.7 10 14:46:19
2 6.5 5.9 3 38.2 142.7 10 14:46:19
3 7.5 6.8 4 38.2 142.7 10 14:46:19
Earthquake warning issued 4 8.6 7.2 5-lower 38.2 142.7 10 14:46:19
5 9.6 6.3 4 38.2 142.7 10 14:46:19
6 10.7 6.6 4 38.2 142.7 10 14:46:19
7 11.0 6.6 4 38.2 142.7 10 14:46:19
8 15.9 7.2 4 38.1 142.9 10 14:46:17
9 22.2 7.6 5-lower 38.1 142.9 10 14:46:16
10 30.0 7.7 5-lower 38.1 142.9 10 14:46:16
11 45.0 7.7 5-lower 38.1 142.9 10 14:46:16
12 65.1 7.9 5-upper 38.1 142.9 10 14:46:17
13 85.0 8.0 5-upper 38.1 142.9 10 14:46:17
14 105.0 8.1 6-lower 38.1 142.9 10 14:46:17
15 116.8 8.1 6-lower 38.1 142.9 10 14:46:17
Table notes. The first P-wave detection was at 14:46:40.2. All times are JST on March 11, 2011.
hNp://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/research/WarningsInJapan/
Oct2007–JapanturnedonfirstpublicnaConalearthquakewarningsystemOperatedbytheJapanMeteorologicalAgency(JMA)
Mar2011–firsttruetest
Tsunamiwaveheights,11March2011TohokuEarthquake
MeasuredtsunamiheightsresulCngfrom11March2011Earthquake.JapanSocietyofCivilEngineersTohokuEarthquakeTsunamiInformaCon,hNp://www.coastal.jp/tsunami2011/index.php
“Ahouseonahighlandbringspeaceandhappinesstoyourchildrenandgrandchildren-Remembertheravagesofthegreattsunami-Donotbuildanyhousesbelowthispoint”
(translaCon,H.Takagi,WasedaU;Photo–M.Oishi)
GrandtsunamimonumentinAneyoshi,Miyako
Builtaperthe13July869ADSanriku(Jōgan)EarthquakeEsCmatedmag=8.3+(Minouraetal.,2002)Tsunamireached38.9metersabovesealevel
WehavenowriNenhistoricalrecordofpastmagnitude9CascadiaearthquakesButoralhistoriesofaboriginalgroupsinthePacificNorthwesttellofenCrevillagesdevastatedbyviolentgroundshakingandmassivefloods
Chief Louis Nookmiis (1880-1964)
“This is the most important story the Huu-ay-aht people have”
AwallofwateresCmatedatover50feetsweptthroughAnaclaandothercoastalvillagesdrowningthousandsofNuu-chah-nulth-aht
DrownedCoastalForests-Cascadia
BrianAtwaterU.S.GeologicalSurvey
AtwaterandHemphill-Haley(1997)
9PM,Jan26,1700ADbasedonJapanesetsunamirecord!
124 Turbidite Event History—Methods and Implications for Holocene Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,500
Turb
idite
mas
s (s
cale
d)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
T1
T2T3
T4T5T6
T7
T8
T9
T10
T11
T12
T13
T14T15
T16
T17
T17a
T18
cluster avg. = 330 yr(150–510)
clusterclusterclustercluster avg. = 560 yr
(340–740)cluster avg. = 510 yr
(330–690)
cluster
Gap 980
(800–1,130)years
Gap 1190
(1,020–1,380) years
cluster
Gap720
(570–870)years
Gap730
(540–910)years
cluster avg. = 500 yr(320–580)
cluster avg. = 300 yr(120–480)
A
B
C
Calibrated years B.P. (1950)
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,50010,000
Turb
idite
mas
s (s
cale
d)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
T1
T2T3
T4T5T6
T7
T8
T9
T10
T11
T12
T13
T14T15
T16
T17
T17a
T18
cluster avg. = 330 yr(150–510)
clusterclusterclustercluster avg. = 560 yr
(340–740)
clustercluster avg. = 550 yr
(370–730)cluster avg. = 300 yr
(120–480)
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
0.00
Diss
imila
rity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 17a18
DendrogramVariables C2 Clustering method: Complete linkage (furthest neighbor) Distance type: Euclidean Scale type: Standard deviation
Cophenetic correlation: 0.809855 Delta(0.5): 0.393080 Delta(1.0): 0.445 917
Event number
Gap 980
(800–1,130)years
Gap 1,190
(1,020–1,380) years
Gap730
(540–910)years
Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4
Figure 60. A, Time series of Cascadia turbidite emplacement for the northern and
central Cascadia margin. Bars are scaled with height representing turbidite mass (taller bars are larger turbidites).
Bar widths are the 2V�error range from OxCal combines for each event. Turbidite mass is calculated from gamma density data for
cores M9907-12PC (Juan de Fuca Channel) and M9907-23PC (Cascadia Channel) (data given in table 12). The time series suggests a history of clusters of earthquakes (average repeat times shown) separated by gaps of ~750–1,150 years. Gaps appear to have a tendency to conclude with a large event. B, Four cluster models. C, Clustering dendrogram for the north-central Cascadia turbidite time series, model B.
Goldfingeretal.(2012)
ChrisGoldfinger(OregonStateUniv)BasedonoffshoresubmarinelandsliderecordNineteengreatmagnitude~9earthquakesin
thelast10,000yearsAveragerecurrenceinterval~500-530yearsRecurrenceintervalrangesfrom200to800
years,possibleclustersseparatedbygaps
Earthquakerecordlast10,000years
USGSM9.0planningscenariofromCREW(2103)
ModifiedMercalliIntensityScaleVII“VeryStrong”PerceivedShaking“Moderate”PotenRalDamage
DamagenegligibleinbuildingsofgooddesignandconstrucRon;slighttomoderateinwell-builtordinarystructures;considerabledamageinpoorlybuiltorbadlydesignedstructures;somechimneysbroken.
Essen:alinfrastructurewillbeheavilydamagedbygroundshaking,rockslides
• TransportaRonnetworks:
-bridges,roads,railways• Airports• Ports,shippingchannels• Electricity,naturalgas,liquidfuels• Watersystems–firefighRng,drinking• CommunicaRonnetworks• CriRcalfaciliRes-hospitals,firestaRons
CascadiaRegionEarthquakeGroup,
2013www.crew.org
Tsunamiwillinundatelow-lyingareasalongthewestcoastofVancouverIsland,Washington,Oregon,Calif
LiquefacRon
GeomapVancouver
Groundshakingdependsonearthquakemagnitude,distancefromepicenterandlocalgeologyUnconsolidatedsoil(muds,sands)àamplifiedshakingandliquefacRon:
-Richmond,Delta-FalseCreek
Geology
GroundShakinginVancouvercausedbyMagnitude9CascadiaEarthquake
Expect3to4minutesofverystronglateralshaking,withmanyaOershocksoccurringformonthsaOerwardWhatwillhappentomyhomeorworkplaceduringanearthquake?
Whenwasthebuildingbuilt? FirstcomprehensiveseismicbuildingcodeinCanada-1953 Majorupgradestoseismicbuildingcodesin1970,1985,2005 OurseismiccodesconRnuetobestrengthenedaswelearnmoreWhereisbuildinglocated? Loosesoil–moreshakingWhatisthebuildingmadeof? Unreinforcedconcreteorbrickbuildingsperformpoorly Woodframehomesshouldperformwell(exceptchimneysandglass)Howlongandhowviolentlydoesthegroundshake?
Journeayetal.(2015)AprofileofearthquakeriskfortheDistrictofNorthVancouver,BriCshColumbia.Geol.Surv.CanadaOpenFile7677
EsCmatedgroundmoConsProbabilisCc DeterminisCc
Riversands,gravel
Sandstone
Glacialsands,gravel,clay
Landfill
Granites
GeologicalSurveyCanada(1998)GeoScape
1.Planandprepare
AssessandreduceriskEmergencymanagementplanning,pracCse“TheworstAmetobeexchangingbusinesscardsisduringacrisis.”-MarciaMcNuG
Hardeninfrastructure
StrictbuildingcodesRetrofitorrebuildcriCcalinfrastructure Hospitals,firestaCons Bridges(disasterrelief) AirportSteadyinvestmentinallpublicbuildings Schools,communitycentres,…
Develop,deployearlywarningsystemsEducatepublicàpersonalpreparaCon
Secureyourhome,communicaConplan,disastersupplies NextShakeoutBC–October20,2016
2.Survive
DROPdownontoyourhandsandkneesGetundersturdydeskortableCrouchagainstinteriorwallTriangleoflife–no!Doorway–no!
COVERyourheadandneckHOLDONWaitunClshakingstopstogetoutTurnoffgas,waterWestcoasttsunami–seekhighground
3.RespondandrecoverSearchandrescueHelptheinjured,gethospitalsfuncConingReliefsupplies
GetairportandhighwaysopenRestoreessenCalservices
Water,electricity,sewerTelecommunicaCons
DebrisremovalGetourcityupandrunning
ReconnectandrebuildourcommuniCesMinimizeeconomicdisrupCon
NextShakeoutBC–October20,2016
WealthofinformaCononthewebonhowtobestprepareforanearthquake:
Resources
GovernmentofCanada-hGp://www.getprepared.gc.caGovernmentofBriHshColumbia-hGp://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/preparedbc/know-the-risks/earthquakesShakeoutBC–www.shakeoutbc.canextBCwideeventOctober20,2016CityofVancouver-hGp://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/earthquake.aspxUBC-hGp://riskmanagement.ubc.ca/emergency-mgt/emergency-procedures/earthquakeCascadiaRegionEarthquakeWorkgroup-www.crew.org