December 15th, 2015

Integrated Resource Plan: A vision of New Infrastructure Development for PREPA’S Transformation

Puerto Rico Electric Power

This presentation provides a summary of the key recommendations of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) proposed for PREPA for the period from 2016 to 2035 and the underlying analysis and assumptions, especially focused in:

The IRP report at PREPA’s website (http://www.aeepr.com/Aeees/ley57.asp) also includes:

Core Objective and Agenda

■ Generation expansion plan

■ Transmission expansion plan

• Demand Forecast• Fuel Forecast• Fuel Infrastructure• Demand Response• Environmental Compliance

■ Renewable penetration for multiple years, transmission study details, distributed generation.

■ Complementary Studies:

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What is an Integrated Resource Plan?

■ An Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is:

A long term planning assessment, typically covering a 20 year period, by which an electrical service company finds the optimal plan to:

• Supply the current and forecasted electrical demand

• Meeting regulatory requirements

• Reliability criteria

• The least cost possible

Usually subject to public review and final regulatory approval.

Essential to effectively plan any decision to replace, retire, or build new generation.

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PREPA’s IRP

■ PREPA’s IRP:

A requirement of Act 57 – 2014: PREPA must present an IRP to the Puerto Rico Energy Commission (PREC) by July 2015.

An essential part of the restructuring process that PREPA is currently undergoing.

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PREPA’s IRP

■ According to Act 57 – 2014, PREPA’s IRP shall include the following, among others:

Evaluation of supply resources to satisfy Puerto Rico’s energy demand over a 20 year planning horizon

Current generation system evaluation, including improvements, replacements, and retirements, if necessary

Interconnection of renewable energy projects to meet law requirements, including distributed generation and utility scale producers

Compliance with environmental regulations

Energy source diversification, stabilize energy costs, improve system reliability and stability

Electric transmission system capacity and reliability

Evaluation of energy efficiency (EE) and demand side management (DSM) programs

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PREPA’s IRP

■ Main issues affecting PREPA’s IRP:

Environmental compliance:

• MATS Rule• Clean Power Plan (CO2)

Regulatory compliance

• PREC rules, as per Act 57-2014

PREPA’s restructuring process

• Forbearance Agreement with creditors• Business Plan

System costs, reliability, and safety

• Renewable sources integration• Generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure• Fuel diversification• Energy demand forecast

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■ The performance of the portfolios under various futures was assessed based on the following main metrics:

Cost Metrics

– Capital Cost– Total System Costs (Fuel, O&M, annualized CapEx, Purchased Power)

Operations Metrics

– Reliability (LOLH / Reserve)– Curtailment (inability to accept renewable generation)

Environmental and Compliance Metrics

– CO2 (Clean Power Plan and GHG New Source Standard)

– Other pollutants (SOX, NOX, FPM)

Portfolio SelectionMetrics

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Driver Site Project COD Fuel Cost

MATS Compliance

AOGP and related

Gas Port Jul-17 -- 373.6

Aguirre Steam 1 Conversion Oct-16 Gas 38.4

Aguirre Steam 2 Conversion Jul-17 Gas 38.4

Aguirre CC 1 Dual Fuel Conversion Oct-16 Gas/Diesel

24.1

Aguirre CC 1 Dual Fuel Conversion Jul-17 Gas/Diesel

24.1

Palo SecoNew Palo Seco F Class (359MW) Jan-21 Diesel

369.3

Unit RetirementsFY21, FY27,

FY31 -- 135.6

Additional T&D Investments FY16-FY20 262.4

PREPA’s IRP Recommended Main Projects 1st Five Years

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Driver Site Project COD Fuel Cost

Energy Efficiency, CPP

& Improvements

Aguirre

Aguirre CC 1 Repowering Jul-21 Gas 185.2

Aguirre CC 2 Repowering Jul-22 Gas 185.2

New Aguirre 1 H Class (393 MW) Jul-26 Gas

397.7

New Aguirre 2 H Class (393 MW) Jul-27 Gas

397.7

Costa SurNew Costa Sur 5 H Class (393 MW) Jul-30 Gas

397.7

New Costa Sur 6 H Class (393 MW) Jul-31 Gas

397.7

PREPA’s IRP Recommended Main Projects Next 10 Years

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38 kV230 kV 115 kV

Puerto Rico’s Electrical System

G 602

Palo SecoPower Plant

400G

G

San Juan Power Plant

San Juan Combined Cycle440

G 42 Jobos

G 42

Yabucoa

G 454 AES PowerPlant

G 900AguirrePowerPlant

AguirreCombinedCycle

G 592

G 507

EcoelécticaPowerPlant

G 990

Costa SurPowerPlant

G 247

Cambalache

G 42

Vega Baja

G 42

Daguao

1500 MW

1400 MW

1900 MW

G 220

Mayagüez

G 2

Culebra

G 6

Vieques

■ A 20% RPS Sensitivity was carried out for 2035 under all Futures:

This implies 23% renewable penetration and that 68% of the peak could be supplied from renewable for Future 1 to 3.

Futures 1 to 3

Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Compliance20% Penetration

Year 2035 Conditions

Peak Generation Total 2,927 Sales + Net Metering 16,734,283 Energy DG (322 MW) @ 21 % Capacity Factor 592,566 Net Sales 16,141,718 Target Penetration 20%

Target PPOA Energy 3,228,344 PPOA PV + Wind MW in Projects 1,056 Add PV @ 21% for required penetration 599 Total PPOA 1,656 Average Capacity Factor 22%DG 322 Total Renewable 1,978 Total % Energy from Renewable 23%% Renewable as function of peak 68%

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Renewable Integration Curtailment

12

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

$ 20

15 T

ho

usa

nd

P1F1 RPS and Renewable Penetration

Renewable Curtailment Cost RPS (PPOA/Net sales)

RPS Target Renewable Penetration

Reduced RPS Target

If nothing is done to renew PREPA’s generation fleet, the situation is much worst, paying up to $250 million in curtailment penalties in a year for power NOT served.

PREPA’s IRP Benefits

■ Environmental compliance: MATS Rule

Clean Power Plan (CO2)

■ 20% Renewable energy integration

■ Fuel diversification through use of natural gas and significant reduction in oil fuel dependency

■ Modern, highly efficient and flexible generation fleet

■ Modern and Reliable T&D System

■ Stable electricity cost and reliable power

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PREPA’s IRP Benefits

■ Main issues affecting PREPA’s IRP:

Environmental compliance:• MATS Rule• Clean Power Plan (CO2)

20% Renewable energy integration

Fuel diversification through use of natural gas and significant reduction in oil fuel dependency

Modern Generation Fleet and T&D System

More stable electricity cost and reliable power

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Thank You!