december 2013 housing report

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A comprehensive Housing Report from the Fort Collins Board of REALTORS®. Residential Market Statistics for single family detached and attached homes provided by IRES. Please note that IRES no longer includes "to be built" and "under construction listings. For more information please call 223-2900

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: December 2013 Housing Report
Page 2: December 2013 Housing Report

November 2013 Monthly Snapshot

One-Year Change in One-Year Change in

Single FamilySold Listings

Single FamilyDays On Market

23456789

101112131415

Click on desired metric to jump to that page.

Monthly Indicators

- 8.3% - 20.8% + 2.6%One-Year Change inNovember was largely another encouraging month for residential real estate.

Our attention has shifted from multiyear high prices and sales volumes to seller activity, inventory levels and building permits. And let's not forget the calendar effect. As families gather together, fewer house hunters are scheduling showings and writing offers. Watch for month-to-month activity to moderate while year-over-year comparisons remain strong.

New Listings were up 0.5 percent for single family homes but decreased 6.3 percent for townhouse-condo properties. Pending sales clocked in at 62 for single family homes and 18 for townhouse-condo properties.

The Median Sales Price was up 2.6 percent to $258,635 for single family homes but decreased 0.9 percent to $165,000 for townhouse-condo properties. Months Supply of Inventory stood at 3.3 for single family units and 2.3 months for townhouse-condo units.

Recent economic and jobs data have surprised to the upside by exceeding expectations. This likely keeps the new Federal Reserve leadership on track for March 2014 tapering. Non-farm payrolls grew by 204,000 jobs in October, outperforming Wall Street expectations. In another bullish sign, August payrolls were revised upward to a 238,000 job gain – positive momentum that should support housing recovery. Just in time for the holidays.

Single FamillyMedian Sales Price

Residential real estate activity in Area 9, comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.

Single Family Activity Overview

All Properties Activity Overview

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.

Townhouse-Condo Activity Overview

Days on Market Until SaleHousing Affordability IndexAll Properties Activity OverviewGlossary of TermsMonths Supply of Inventory

New ListingsPending SalesSold ListingsMedian Sales PriceAverage Sales PricePercent of List Price Received

Page 3: December 2013 Housing Report

Single Family Activity OverviewKey metrics for Single Family by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.

Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 11-2012 11-2013 Percent Change YTD-2012 YTD-2013 Percent Change

-- --

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 14

-- --

Months Supply Not enough historical data for chart -- 3.3 -- --

Active Listings Not enough historical data for chart -- 876 -- --

Affordability Index 150 143 - 4.7% 153 142 - 7.2%

Pct. of List Price Received 98.2% 98.3% + 0.1% 98.4% 98.9% + 1.0%

Average Sales Price $280,422 $309,159 + 10.2% $281,282 $300,394

Days on Market 106 84 - 20.8% 103 81 - 21.4%

-- --

Sold Listings 217 199 - 8.3% 2,633 2,996 + 13.8%

Median Sales Price $252,000 $258,635 + 2.6% $246,000 $261,500 + 6.3%

+ 6.8%

+ 10.2%

Pending Sales 182 62 - 65.9% 2,735 2,826 + 3.3%

New Listings 194 195 + 0.5% 3,481 3,837

Under Contract Not enough historical data for chart -- -- -- --

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

Page 4: December 2013 Housing Report

Townhouse-Condo Activity OverviewKey metrics for Townhouse-Condo by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.

Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 11-2012 11-2013 Percent Change YTD-2012 YTD-2013 Percent Change

-- --

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 14

-- --

Months Supply Not enough historical data for chart -- 2.3 -- --

Active Listings Not enough historical data for chart -- 147 -- --

Affordability Index 211 208 - 1.4% 225 206 - 8.4%

Pct. of List Price Received 98.1% 97.7% - 0.4% 97.8% 99.0% + 1.0%

Average Sales Price $170,797 $185,044 + 8.3% $163,111 $178,154

Days on Market 60 71 + 18.3% 90 73 - 18.9%

-- --

Sold Listings 50 51 + 2.0% 654 728 + 11.3%

Median Sales Price $166,500 $165,000 - 0.9% $153,500 $167,500 + 9.1%

+ 9.2%

+ 1.9%

Pending Sales 44 18 - 59.1% 681 705 + 3.5%

New Listings 48 45 - 6.3% 807 822

Under Contract Not enough historical data for chart -- -- -- --

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

Page 5: December 2013 Housing Report

New Listings

New ListingsSingleFamily

Year-Over-YearChange

Townhouse-Condo

Year-Over-YearChange

Dec-2012 138 +0.7% 26 -10.3%

Jan-2013 268 +23.5% 50 +2.0%

Feb-2013 295 +5.7% 66 +13.8%

Mar-2013 365 +4.6% 78 -29.7%

Apr-2013 383 +1.6% 115 +16.2%

May-2013 515 +21.2% 87 +1.2%

Jun-2013 485 +26.0% 89 +1.1%

Jul-2013 418 +4.8% 96 +33.3%

Aug-2013 364 +5.2% 89 +23.6%

Sep-2013 298 +21.1% 61 +7.0%

Oct-2013 251 -4.9% 46 -31.3%

Nov-2013 195 +0.5% 45 -6.3%

12-Month Avg 331 +9.9% 71 +1.4%

Historical New Listings by Month

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4

A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.

140

39

194

48

195

45

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

November

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

3,178

709

3,481

807

3,837

822

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

Year to Date

2011 2012 2013

- 6.3% + 23.1% + 0.5% + 38.6% + 13.8% + 10.2% + 9.5% + 1.9%

2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

- 18.6% - 13.1% - 22.0% - 11.4%

Page 6: December 2013 Housing Report

Pending Sales

Pending SalesSingleFamily

Year-Over-YearChange

Townhouse-Condo

Year-Over-YearChange

Dec-2012 165 +42.2% 33 -5.7%

Jan-2013 237 +37.0% 53 +39.5%

Feb-2013 255 +8.5% 57 +9.6%

Mar-2013 330 +17.9% 76 +43.4%

Apr-2013 311 +9.5% 111 +16.8%

May-2013 357 +15.2% 86 0.0%

Jun-2013 348 +14.5% 76 -9.5%

Jul-2013 293 -0.7% 64 -4.5%

Aug-2013 241 +5.2% 64 +8.5%

Sep-2013 206 -7.6% 50 -2.0%

Oct-2013 186 -15.5% 50 -3.8%

Nov-2013 62 -65.9% 18 -59.1%

12-Month Avg 249 +4.9% 62 +3.1%

Historical Pending Sales by Month

A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5

157

34

182

44

62

18

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

November

0

100

200

300

400

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

2,212

562

2,735

681

2,826

705

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

Year to Date

2011 2012 2013

- 59.1% + 29.4% - 65.9% + 15.9% + 21.2% + 3.3% + 23.6% + 3.5%

2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

+ 40.2% + 1.6% + 2.9% - 2.9%

Page 7: December 2013 Housing Report

Sold Listings

Sold ListingsSingleFamily

Year-Over-YearChange

Townhouse-Condo

Year-Over-YearChange

Dec-2012 175 +1.7% 49 +22.5%

Jan-2013 168 +54.1% 34 -15.0%

Feb-2013 184 +52.1% 40 +73.9%

Mar-2013 266 +16.2% 51 0.0%

Apr-2013 283 +16.9% 66 +46.7%

May-2013 327 +10.1% 101 +31.2%

Jun-2013 329 +1.2% 89 -5.3%

Jul-2013 394 +23.5% 92 +13.6%

Aug-2013 342 +15.2% 79 -8.1%

Sep-2013 244 -2.4% 80 +37.9%

Oct-2013 260 +14.5% 45 -8.2%

Nov-2013 199 -8.3% 51 +2.0%

12-Month Avg 264 +13.0% 65 +12.0%

Historical Sold Listings by Month

A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7

167

33

217

50

199

51

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

November

0

100

200

300

400

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

2,133

551

2,633

654

2,996

728

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

Year to Date

2011 2012 2013

+ 2.0% + 51.5% - 8.3% + 29.9% + 18.7% + 13.8% + 23.4% + 11.3%

2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

+ 7.7% - 1.1% + 6.6% + 106.3%

Page 8: December 2013 Housing Report

Median Sales Price

Median Sales PriceSingleFamily

Year-Over-YearChange

Townhouse-Condo

Year-Over-YearChange

Dec-2012 $245,000 +4.4% $170,000 +8.0%

Jan-2013 $251,547 +6.1% $181,450 +12.0%

Feb-2013 $245,013 +6.5% $146,700 -6.0%

Mar-2013 $255,000 +3.2% $162,500 +9.8%

Apr-2013 $260,900 +6.5% $159,700 +20.1%

May-2013 $265,000 +11.8% $157,500 -1.6%

Jun-2013 $274,000 +9.6% $178,000 +21.1%

Jul-2013 $272,500 +9.9% $158,050 +2.3%

Aug-2013 $269,000 +5.5% $168,000 +15.5%

Sep-2013 $261,250 +4.7% $194,250 +31.7%

Oct-2013 $254,644 +3.9% $159,000 -3.8%

Nov-2013 $258,635 +2.6% $165,000 -0.9%

12-Month Avg* $260,000 +6.1% $167,500 +8.8%

Historical Median Sales Price by Month

Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

* Median Sales Price for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8

$244,900

$169,750

$252,000

$166,500

$258,635

$165,000

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

November

$125,000

$150,000

$175,000

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

$275,000

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

$237,700

$154,500

$246,000

$153,500

$261,500

$167,500

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

Year to Date

2011 2012 2013

- 0.9% - 1.9% + 2.6% + 2.9% - 0.6% + 6.3% + 3.5% + 9.1%

2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

+ 4.2% + 2.9% + 1.0% + 6.1%

Page 9: December 2013 Housing Report

Average Sales Price

Average Sales Price

SingleFamily

Year-Over-YearChange

Townhouse-Condo

Year-Over-YearChange

Dec-2012 $293,913 +7.7% $188,573 +20.4%

Jan-2013 $288,900 +7.9% $186,919 +11.2%

Feb-2013 $291,269 +16.8% $161,529 +11.3%

Mar-2013 $283,336 -1.9% $173,616 +4.1%

Apr-2013 $288,650 +4.3% $163,762 +7.7%

May-2013 $292,479 +8.6% $175,311 +5.8%

Jun-2013 $310,365 +6.1% $196,625 +20.0%

Jul-2013 $317,467 +13.1% $166,129 +5.0%

Aug-2013 $302,632 +4.3% $172,394 +11.6%

Sep-2013 $305,979 +6.2% $203,246 +28.5%

Oct-2013 $301,153 +6.0% $164,699 -13.1%

Nov-2013 $309,159 +10.2% $185,044 +8.3%

12-Month Avg* $300,036 +6.9% $178,811 +9.9%

Historical Average Sales Price by Month

Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

* Average Sales Price for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9

$277,396

$169,823

$280,422

$170,797

$309,159

$185,044

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

November

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

2011 2012 2013

+ 8.3% + 0.6% + 10.2% + 1.1% 2011 2012 2013

- 0.1% + 2.8%

$273,583

$155,697

$281,282

$163,111

$300,394

$178,154

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

Year to Date

+ 9.2% + 4.8% 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

+ 6.8% + 2.8% + 2.7% - 1.4%

Page 10: December 2013 Housing Report

Percent of List Price Received

Pct. of List Price Received

SingleFamily

Year-Over-YearChange

Townhouse-Condo

Year-Over-YearChange

Dec-2012 97.4% -0.9% 97.9% +0.7%

Jan-2013 97.9% +0.1% 98.4% +2.8%

Feb-2013 98.1% -0.2% 98.4% +3.6%

Mar-2013 98.9% +0.7% 98.9% +0.7%

Apr-2013 99.0% +1.1% 98.9% +1.5%

May-2013 99.2% +0.7% 99.1% +1.1%

Jun-2013 99.3% +0.6% 99.1% +1.0%

Jul-2013 99.1% +0.2% 99.5% +1.4%

Aug-2013 99.0% +0.8% 99.1% +0.8%

Sep-2013 99.1% +0.9% 99.6% +1.3%

Oct-2013 98.7% +0.4% 98.5% +0.5%

Nov-2013 98.3% +0.1% 97.7% -0.4%

12-Month Avg* 98.4% +0.4% 97.8% +1.1%

Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month

Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.

* Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10

97.0% 97.3% 98.2% 98.1% 98.3% 97.7%

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

November

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

97.5% 97.4% 98.4% 97.8% 98.9% 99.0%

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

Year to Date

2011 2012 2013

- 0.4% + 0.8% + 0.1% + 1.2% + 0.4% + 0.5% + 0.9% + 1.2% 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

+ 0.2% + 0.1% - 0.1% - 0.6%

Page 11: December 2013 Housing Report

Days on Market Until Sale

Days on MarketSingleFamily

Year-Over-YearChange

Townhouse-Condo

Year-Over-YearChange

Dec-2012 107 -10.8% 79 -47.0%

Jan-2013 104 -25.2% 83 -43.5%

Feb-2013 117 -8.6% 123 -12.8%

Mar-2013 84 -35.4% 73 -25.5%

Apr-2013 83 -25.9% 68 -19.0%

May-2013 71 -22.8% 77 -1.3%

Jun-2013 76 -18.3% 63 -25.0%

Jul-2013 71 -14.5% 58 -36.3%

Aug-2013 78 -19.6% 64 -12.3%

Sep-2013 67 -28.0% 92 +3.4%

Oct-2013 79 -25.5% 54 -51.8%

Nov-2013 84 -20.8% 71 +18.3%

12-Month Avg 82 -20.9% 73 -21.6%

Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month* Days on Market for all properties from December 2012 through November 2013. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11

Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.

116 120

106

60

84

71

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

November

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

113 122

103

90 81

73

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

Year to Date

2011 2012 2013

+ 18.3% - 50.0% - 20.8% - 8.6% - 26.2% - 21.4% - 8.8% - 18.9%

2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

- 11.5% + 2.7% + 1.7% - 4.0%

Page 12: December 2013 Housing Report

Housing Affordability Index

Affordability IndexSingleFamily

Year-Over-YearChange

Townhouse-Condo

Year-Over-YearChange

Dec-2012 155 +3.3% 209 +0.5%

Jan-2013 152 +2.0% 200 -2.0%

Feb-2013 152 -1.3% 231 +9.0%

Mar-2013 147 +2.8% 213 -2.7%

Apr-2013 146 -0.7% 219 -9.5%

May-2013 139 -9.2% 215 +1.4%

Jun-2013 127 -13.6% 184 -18.9%

Jul-2013 129 -14.0% 204 -7.7%

Aug-2013 129 -11.6% 192 -16.9%

Sep-2013 134 -11.3% 173 -25.4%

Oct-2013 137 -10.5% 204 -3.3%

Nov-2013 143 -4.7% 208 -1.4%

12-Month Avg 141 -4.2% 149 -5.2%

Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month

This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12

144

196

150

211

143

208

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

November

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

2011 2012 2013

- 1.4% + 7.7% - 4.7% + 4.2% 2011 2012 2013

+ 2.1% + 0.5%

148

211

153

225

142

206

Single Family Townhouse-Condo

Year to Date

- 8.4% + 6.6% - 7.2% + 3.4% + 3.5% + 4.5% 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

Page 13: December 2013 Housing Report

All Properties Activity OverviewKey metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.

Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 11-2012 11-2013 Percent Change YTD-2012 YTD-2013 Percent Change

-- --

Current as of December 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 14

-- --

Months Supply Not enough historical data for chart -- 3.1 -- --

Active Listings Not enough historical data for chart -- 1,023 -- --

Affordability Index 1,035 1,035 - 1.2% 966 955 - 1.2%

Pct. of List Price Received 98.2% 98.2% + 0.6% 98.3% 98.9% + 0.6%

Average Sales Price $259,893 $283,839 + 7.3% $257,770 $276,491

Days on Market 97 81 - 21.0% 100 79 - 21.0%

-- --

Sold Listings 267 250 - 6.4% 3,287 3,724 + 13.3%

Median Sales Price $232,000 $239,000 + 3.0% $226,000 $243,000 + 7.5%

+ 7.3%

+ 8.7%

Pending Sales 226 80 - 64.6% 681 705 + 3.5%

New Listings 242 240 - 0.8% 4,288 4,659

Under Contract Not enough historical data for chart -- -- -- --

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

11-2010 11-2011 11-2012 11-2013

Page 14: December 2013 Housing Report

Glossary of Terms

New Listings

Pending Sales

Under Contract Activity

Sold Listings

Median Sales Price

Average Sales Price

Percent of List Price Received

Days on Market Until Sale

Housing Affordability Index

Active Listings

Months Supply of Inventory

Current as of October 10, 2013. All data from IRES, LLC. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13

A sum of all home sales prices divided by total number of sales.

A mathematical calculation of the percent difference from last list price and sold price for those listings sold in the reported period.

A sum of all home sales prices divided by total number of sales.

A measure of how affordable a region’s housing is to its consumers. A higher number means greater affordability. The index is based on interest rates, median sales price and average income by county.

A measure of the number of homes available for sale at a given time. The availability of homes for sale has a big effect on supply-demand dynamics and home prices.

A measure of how balanced the market is between buyers and sellers. It is expressed as the number of months it would hypothetically take to sell through all the available homes for sale, given current levels of home sales. A balanced market ranges from 4 to 7 months of supply. A buyer's market has a higher number, reflecting fewer buyers relative to homes for sale. A seller's market has a lower number, reflecting more buyers relative to homes for sale.

A measure of home values in a market area where 50% of activity was higher and 50% was lower than this price point.

A research tool provided by the Colorado Association of REALTORS®

A measure of how much new supply is coming onto the market from sellers (e.g., Q3 New Listings are those listings with a system list date from July 1 through September 30).

A count of all the listings that went into Pending status during the reported period. Pending listings are counted at the end of the reported period. Each listing can only be counted one time. If a listing goes into Pending, out of Pending, then back into Pending all in one reported period, this listing would only be counted once. This is the most real-time measure possible for home buyer activity, as it measures signed contracts on sales rather than the actual closed sale. As such, it is called a "leading indicator" of buyer demand.

A count of all listings Under Contract during the reported period. Listings that go Under Contract are counted each day. There is no maximum number of times a listing can be counted as Under Contract. For example, if a listing goes into Under Contract, out of Under Contract, then back into Under Contract all in one reported period, this listing would be counted twice.

A measure of home sales that were closed to completion during the report period.