Four Corners Geological Society: P.O. Box 1501, Durango, CO 81302 www.fourcornersgeologicalsociety.org

December - Joint Luncheon Meeting with the Society of Petroleum Engineers

Talk, Title & Abstract Pgs. 1-2

Speaker’s Bio Pg. 2

Meeting Location Pg. 3

Prez Sez Pg. 3

Events, Meetings & Courses Pgs. 4-5

Inside this issue:

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December 2015

NEWSLETTER

SPEAKER: Dr. Peter R. Rose, AAPG Distinguished Lecturer

DATE /

TIME:

Monday, December 14th,

11:30am—1:30pm, Luncheon

LOCA-

TION:

Red Lion Inn, 700 Scott Ave., Farmington, NM

COST: $20.00/person, $2.00/person talk only, Students free. You can RSVP & pay

online at: http://www.fourcornersgeologicalsociety.org/Events/events.asp

RSVP: By Thursday, December 9th at 5pm to Rebecca Helms, rhelms@rwpc.us or

970-563-5356. (Students, please RSVP by email as the online PayPal system doesn’t work

for free admission).

Full Page (7.5 x 9.5”) $100/mo or $1,000/yr Half Page (7.5 x 4.5”) $50/mo or $500/yr Quarter Page (3.5 x 4.5”) $25/mo or $$250/yr

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SINCE 1950 ABSTRACT: Cognitive bias, in its many manifestations, is the major cause of ge-

otechnical overestimation and faulty probability forecasts in petroleum geoscience.

The five most prevalent cognitive biases in petroleum E&P are: Confirmation Bias;

Overconfidence; False Analogs; Anchoring; and Motivational Bias. They are caused

by premature selection of theory, personal hubris, lack of perspective, lack of imagi-

nation, laziness, and excessive self-interest. Important influences include the existing

organizational reward system, economic pressure for objective geotechnical results,

and the anticipated consequences of project reviews and evaluations. In fact, the field

of E&P Risk Analysis emerged during the 1980s to help identify and reduce bias in

assessing the value of new plays and prospects. Companies that routinely utilize disci-

plined methods of Risk Analysis tend to deliver on their E&P promises.

Pioneering work by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, his late colleague Amos

Tversky, and others since the 1970s has made scientists much more aware of the dan-

gers that Cognitive Bias pose for the practice of objective, reliable science. Even so,

increasing awareness of obvious agenda-serving scientific publications, slanted peer

review (“pal-review”), withholding of codes and formulae, unreproducible experi-

mental results, and scientific fraud indicate that procedures to identify and limit Cog-

nitive Bias are not being appropriately utilized throughout the scientific community.

This is probably because many of the organizational and economic pressures routinely

experienced by E&P geoscientists are not as intensely or widely operative within aca-

demic and governmental organizations. The late physicist and Nobel laureate Richard

Feynman recognized (1974) the danger of Cognitive Bias: “the first principle is that

you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.” Feynman knew (Continued on page 2)

Cognitive Bias, The Elephant in the Living

Room of Science and Professionalism

SAVE THE DATE: Our next meeting will be on January 21st, in Farmington, from 5:30—8:00pm. Cat

Campbell (AAPG Rocky Mountain Section President) will give a talk titled, “Pavilion, WY., The Importance of Public Perception”. Location to be announced.

Four Corners Geological Society: P.O. Box 1501, Durango, CO 81302 www.fourcornersgeologicalsociety.org

SPEAKER’S BIOGRAPHY: PETER R. ROSE

AAPG Distinguished Lecturer

Pete Rose (Ph. D., Geology, Uni-

versity of Texas, Austin) has been

a professional geologist for 56

years, specializing in Carbonate

Stratigraphy, Petroleum Geology,

Basin Analysis, E&P Risk Assess-

ment, and Mineral Economics. In

1998, he founded Rose & Associ-

ates, LLP. Pete retired in 2005; the Firm continues as

the global standard among consulting companies in the

field of E&P Risk Analysis. His 2001 AAPG book,

Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Explora-

tion Ventures, now in its 7th printing, is widely consid-

ered to be the "Bible" in its field, and has been translat-

ed into Japanese, Chinese, and Russian. He has au-

thored or co-authored more than 80 published articles

and over 300 presented papers on an extremely wide

variety of topics (Micropaleontology to Petroleum Eco-

nomics!). From 2001 to 2004 Pete wrote a regular col-

umn, "The Business Side of Geology", for The Explor-

er, AAPG’s monthly news magazine. Pete received the

coveted Parker Memorial Medal from the American

Institute of Professional Geologists in 1998. In 2005 he

became the 89th President of AAPG. He was co-chair

of the 2007 Interdisciplinary Conference on Oil and

Gas Reserves Definitions, held in Washington, D.C.,

which was instrumental in encouraging the U. S. Secu-

rities and Exchange Commission to modernize its rules

on oil and gas reserves reporting, as occurred the fol-

lowing year. This facilitated the investment component

of the “shale revolution” in the U. S. during the 2008-

2015 development period. In 2013 he became the first

American recipient of the prestigious Petroleum Group

Medal of the Geological Society of London, and in

2014 AAPG honored him with its Halbouty Outstand-

ing Leadership Award. His many years of experience,

helping thousands of geoscientists to improve their ge-

otechnical performance by detecting and reducing bias

in their prospect and play evaluations, have prepared

Pete Rose well to address the broader effects of cogni-

tive bias in science and professional matters, the sub-

ject of his distinguished lecture, "Cognitive Bias, the

Elephant in the Living Room of Science and Profes-

sionalism".

that dedicated practice of the Scientific Method is the key to elimination of Cognitive Bias, recommending “a kind

of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty – a kind of leaning

over backwards.” A practical research approach familiar to many geoscientists is T. C. Chamberlain’s “Method of

Multiple Working Hypotheses”, introduced in 1890. Also important is the separation of E&P activity into two es-

sential and complementary components – 1) play and prospect generation; and 2) play and prospect risk assess-

ment. Professionalism constitutes the conscious honoring of such principles. Sound and objective science is essen-

tial to the continued progress of Society. Is it possible that methods widely applied by Petroleum Geoscience to

identify and counter Cognitive Bias might also be useful to other branches of Science?

(ABSTRACT, Continued from page 1)

Four Corners Geological Society: P.O. Box 1501, Durango, CO 81302 www.fourcornersgeologicalsociety.org

“PREZ SEZ” by John Youle

Last weekend I walked my 10 year old lab, Ruby, through the

ravine that splits our neighbor-

hood. A few houses down,

through the white crusted trees

and underbrush, I could see our

brand new neighbor’s dog strain-

ing to get a good view of us from

its position on the back deck of its home. I don’t know this

dog’s name, or even the owners name yet, but the dog is a big

black beast that takes its security job seriously.

As we approached the perimeter of this dog’s domain it let

out a single probing bark. The bark was a loud deep baritone

that exuded the type of confidence that’s constructed from

strength and ability, and it dripped with menace. If the

hound of the Baskervilles had a bark, it would sound like this

dog.

Ruby responded to the probing bark by wagging wildly and

running up to edge of the new dog’s property confident in

having found a new friend. But the beast had no interest in

the wagging lab; instead, its attention was drawn to another

deep baritone bark that had answered it from the other side of

the neighborhood. The beast flexed as it snapped to attention

and peered across the ravine looking for the responder.

“WOOF snort, WOOF snort, WOOF snort” the beast bel-

lowed back to the other side of the neighborhood.

Immediately, a salvo of intimidating barks fired back at the

new dog from the other side of the ravine, and soon, a full-on bark war erupted.

As the neighborhood shook under the barrage of barks Ruby

finally figured out that the new dog wasn’t interested in her.

So she dropped her nose to the trail, wound up the metro-

nome wag she uses when on her daily quest, and continued to

search for that two-day-old pizza crust she is certain the uni-

verse has provided for her just under the next bush. We

moved on with the bark war ringing in our ears.

The bark war ended abruptly with an urgent loud baritone

human bark, a painful yelp, and the slamming of a door.

And from the other side of the neighborhood, a slamming

door responded.

Yup, you probably already figured out that the dang new dog

was just barking at its own echo! It was also displaying a

type of cognitive bias. The dog expected and therefore found

a situation it knew how to deal with, and in doing so it com-

pletely misinterpreted the actual situation at hand, missed an

opportunity to meet a very playful neighbor dog, and an-

noyed the entire neighborhood. AAPG distinguished lecturer

Pete Rose will talk to us in Farmington on Dec. 14 about how

to combat cognitive bias in the oil business. Hope you can

attend.

Stay Curious,

John

Past President: Paul Spear, (505) 436-3790, x103 geospear2000@yahoo.com President: John Youle, (970) 563-5232, jyoule@rwpc.us

President-Elect: Rebecca Helms (970) 563-5356, rhelms@rwpc.us Treasurer: Tom Staatz, (505) 215-2908, tstaatz@gmail.com

Secretary: Kim Gerhardt, 375-2700, kim@mydurango.net Newsletter Editor: Kim Gerhardt, 375-2700, kim@mydurango.net

Book Chairperson: Tom Ann Casey, (970) 749-7196, tcasey@rwpc.us

2015-2016 OFFICERS OF THE FOUR CORNERS GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY

MEETING LOCATION:

RED LION INN,

FARMINGTON, NM

Four Corners Geological Society: P.O. Box 1501, Durango, CO 81302 www.fourcornersgeologicalsociety.org

EVENTS, MEETINGS & COURSES (by date)

PTTC (Petroleum Technology Transfer Council) WORKSHOP: Golden, CO, December 1-3rd. “Well

Log Sequence Stratigraphy: Applications to Sandstones and Shales”. Instructor Jeff May, Ph.D.

For information and to register: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/well-log-sequence-stratigraphy-

applications-to-sandstones-and-shales-tickets-17109790845.

URTeC 2016 ABSTRACT DEADLINE: Dec 3rd. For Unconventional Resources Technology Conference

to take place August 1-3, San Antonio Texas. Information at: http://urtec.org/2016

ROCKY MT ASSOC. OF GEOLOGISTS DECEMBER LUNCHEON: Denver CO, Dec. 4th., Maggiano's Little

Italy - 500 16th Street Mall #150, 11:30am. Speaker: Dr. Leslie J. Wood, “Re-visiting Controls on Shelf

Sand Distribution and Re-newing Exploration Success in These Highly Complex Depositional Settings”.

To register go to: https://www.rmag.org/i4a/ams/amsstore/category.cfm?category_id=3.

ANNUAL COLORADO GROUNDWATER CONFERENCE: Denver, CO, Dec. 4th. Registration is open at (http://www.agwt.org/civicrm/event/info?reset=1&id=193). NAPE EXPO, Denver, CO, December 9-10th. Colorado Convention Center. Conference schedule at: http://napeexpo.com/themes/site_themes/nape/files/common_files/Schedule_Denver2015.pdf.

DENVER REGIONAL EXPLORATION GEOLOGISTS’ SOCIETY MEETING: Colorado School of Mines, December 7th. Speaker: Charles H. Thorman, CTGS Intl., Inc. & U.S. Geological Survey, Geologist Emeritus, “Depth/Burial Problems associated With metamorphic Core Complexes: Field vs. laboratory Data or Thinking outside The Box ”

PTTC (Petroleum Technology Transfer Council) WORKSHOP: Golden, CO, December 16th. “Air

Emmission Analysis for State and Federal Air Compliance ”. Instructor L. Peter (Pete) Galusky , Jr.

Ph.D., P.E.. For information and to register: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/air-emission-analysis-for-state-and-federal-air-compliance-tickets-18458429660.

2015-2016 OFFICERS OF THE FOUR CORNERS GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY FOUNDATION

President: Gary Gianniny, (970) 247-7254, gianniny_g@fortlewis.edu

Treasurer: Joe Hewitt (505) 564-7740 jhewitt@blm.gov

Secretary John Mercier (505) 324-1166 mercierjohn007@gmail.com

Drawn in 1959 by Walt Osterhoud Drawn in 1972 by R.H. Butcher

THE MEANING OF THE FOUR CORNERS GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY LOGO

The FCGS was founded in 1950. By 1959 the society had a

symbol dominated by an oil derrick in the center of a four-

leafed clover, representing the four states of Utah, Colorado,

New Mexico and Arizona. The names of prominent basins and

mountain ranges surrounded all in an outer ring.

By 1972 the Society decided to adopt a more graphic

“logo” (then a new concept). We are still using this design

today. The central cross represents the borders of the four

states of the Four Corners Region. The flaring outward is sym-

bolic of the far-reaching influence of the Society as character-

ized by our publications which are classics in many libraries.

The four symbols in each quadrant represent the diverse interests of our membership. The feather quill (upper right) is for academics, the

pick (upper left) is for the mining industry, the oil and gas well symbol (lower right) is for the hydrocarbon industry and the Grand Can-

yon profile (lower left) represents geology for the wonder of it, as well as a reminder of the many river trips run by the Society over the

years.

Four Corners Geological Society: P.O. Box 1501, Durango, CO 81302 www.fourcornersgeologicalsociety.org

COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES, VAN TUYL LECTURE SERIES:

Schedule posted at: http://geology.mines.edu/GE_Lecture-Series. Lectures are given each Thursday from 4:00-5:00 pm in Berthoud Hall Room 241.

December 3. Peter Scholle, “Fifty-One Shades of Gray: The Deposition and Diagenesis of North Sea Chalks”.

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY, DEPARTMENT OF GEOSCIENCES SEMINAR SCHEDULE:

Schedule posted at: http://warnercnr.colostate.edu/geo-news-and-events/department-seminars . Sem-

inars are located in Room 320, Warner College of Natural Resources (NR) Building on Thursday after-

noons, and will begin at 12:30 p.m. Questions? Please call (970) 491-5661.

December 3. Fan-Chi Lin, Univ. of Utah. “Seismic Interferometry and Tomography Across USArray

– Imaging Interior Earth Structure from Upper Crust to Inner Core”.

ROCKY MT ASSOC. OF GEOLOGISTS JANUARY LUNCHEON: Denver CO, Jan. 6th., Maggiano's Little

Italy - 500 16th Street Mall #150, 11:30am. Speaker: Pete Stark & Steve Trammel, IHS will talk on, “The Petro-leum Industry Resets – Perspectives on the Road Ahead” To register go to:

https://www.rmag.org/i4a/ams/amsstore/category.cfm?category_id=3.

IHS TRAINING FOR RMAG MEMBERS (Must be full time student or unemployed RMAG member to

attend). Registration opens Dec. 1st. Held at IHS, 321 Inverness Drive S, Englewood, CO. More info at:

https://rmag.memberclicks.net/assets/IHStrainings/IHS%20Trainings_Full%20Pg_12.15.pdf Jan 25-27: Kingdom Seismic Interpretation (Value: $2,100) Jan 28-29: Kingdom Geological Interpretation (Value: $1,400) Feb 23-24: Overview Course (Value: $1,4000

Four Corners Geological Society: P.O. Box 1501, Durango, CO 81302 www.fourcornersgeologicalsociety.org

Build Up Your Personal Geology Library!

Pat Blair, in cleaning out Rob’s collections, is offering the

following publications to any member interested in them.

Please contact her directly at prblair@bresnan.net.

Journal of Research, USGS January 1973 - November 1978

Earth September 1986 – May 2012

Journal Geological Education January 1971 – November 2003

Environmental and Engineering Geoscience Spring 1995 – August 2006

AAPG Bulletin June 1944 – October 2009

GSA Bulletin January 1952 – May 2012

Geology September 1973 – June 2012

Monographs of different states /

areas / basins

1901 to Present