Theodore Gordon

Senior Research Fellow

The Millennium Project

November 16, 2009"Sapienza" Università di Roma

In our world, in our time, there are few good decisions and many bad ones

Futures research exists to help improve decision making; are bad decisions a mark of its failure? Can its utility be improved?

Bad decisions are often attributed to ethical failures (e.g. the current recession)

Yet ethics rates a top spot in Millennium Project studies that involve decision making

Cosmetics

Food

Is FR value free?What are the ethical implications of future developments?

The uses of futures research in decision making lie hereCan the contribution of futures research be improved?

Decision Making

Ethics

Futures Research

Ethical failures lie here.How can values playa bigger role in decisions?

A NEW DECISION SCIENCE

1. Decision time is short in an accelerating world

2. Things go wrong

3. Governments sometimes lie

4. Political forces

5. Uncertainty and surprise

6. Imaginations are limited

7. Innate irrationality

Lack of a moral compass Bad luck Naivety Expediency Self-interests Amorality Timidity Xenophobia Prejudice

Good decisions are hard to find The Montreal Protocol limiting ozone depleting

gasses Population forecasts of the 60’s that led to family

planning  AIDS forecasts that led to massive research,

prevention Silent Spring, Limits to Growth: environmental

programs. And on a global scale we find improvements in

GDP per capita, food availability, life expectancy, literacy, infant mortality, access to fresh water and health care, and school enrollment.

So some good decision making is happening

Iraq Michael Phelps decision to smoke pot Sinking the Lusitania   Red Socks selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees Atari turned down Steve Jobs Gary Cooper turning down the lead in GWTW Auto makers fly to DC in private jets “Pay-to-play“ former Gov. Blagojevich of

Chicago Sub prime mortgages

Is it all quarter-backing on Monday morning?

Twenty five years ago there was no Internet, camera-phones, few PCs, no flat screens,

WI-FI, Republic of Kosovo, environmental consciousness, International Space Station

No Euros, WTO, or NATO in Afghanistan

No asymmetrical warfare with Super Powers

Most believed that a nuclear WW III would occur

China has more Internet users then population of US.

Genetic code written like software: new life forms

Intelligent infrastructure: networks of sensors and RFIDs

Global brain(s) from Internet and collective intelligence

Humans as cyborgs – technology on and in the body

US and China cooperating: Apollo-like energy program

Japan anticipating electricity from Solar Power Satellites

Technological synergies Feedback of accomplishments New instrumentation and analysis

capacities Globalization Result: The Singularity ? (Kurzweil)

What can slow it?Natural limits (e.g. energy)Catastrophe (e.g. SIMAD)Religion, cultureFear of the unknown

Some bad decisions turn out badly as a result of unanticipated consequences.

  Challenger launched despite suspicions

  Thalidomide caused birth defects

  Lead was added to gasoline

  Nosocomial infections in hospitals

  Suntan, meat, butter: once good for you now

questionable

Unfortunate examples Gulf of Tonkin The U-2 incident The existence of secret CIA prisons (rendition)

Paranoia results: are they lying? Media complicity or manipulation? Conspiracy theories: UFO’s, assassinations,

economy, inflation

Governments use the media because, the first info is what most people remember.

Crises trigger decisions: short term issues are higher priority than long term issues

Political dynamics shape decisions Demonstration of power Need for re-election Trading favors Turf protection Media imperatives and timing Role of polls Ultimately direct democracy

Systems may not behave as expected. Complexity and chaos (small errors have large

consequences) Chance events (discovery of a large scale fraud

affecting the entire financial system.)

Systems may not behave as they once did. Failure of analogies (sales of CD ROMs may not

be a predictor of music download sales). Failure of historical examples (are the job

creation strategies of the depression useable now?)

Modeling

Before there was Who could have forecasted

A chain reaction Atomic power, (Prehoda: Hahn-Strassmann point)

A transistor The demise of the vacuum tube

Penicillin Antibiotics

Petroleum Gasoline

Internet Google

15

The framing of a question biases its answer

We tend to see patterns where none may exist

Odds are often ignored.

Loss looms larger than gains

Decisions are often situation dependent

Frequently reported and recent events are accorded higher probability.

Lower probability events are seen as more probable than they should be.

From: Teversky and Kahenman, and The Hidden Traps in Decision Making (HBR Classic) John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa , January 2006 Issue and Future Savvy, Adam Gordon

Disproportionate weight is given to the first information

Killing a project is extremely difficult

People tend to seek information supporting an existing predilection

Difficult decisions are avoided

Any data are persuasive

People take orders: the Milgram phenomenon.

Mostly from: Teversky and Kahenman, and The Hidden Traps in Decision Making (HBR Classic) John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa , January 2006 Issue and Future Savvy, Adam Gordon

IssueImport to decision success

Ability of futures

research to improve

1. Decision time is short high high

2.Things go wrong very high moderate

3. Governments sometimes lie high low

4. Political forces shape the decision agenda high low

5. Uncertainty and surprise very high moderate

6. Imaginations are limited high high

7. Decision processes are often irrational. very high very low

.

ExpectedFuture

Desired Future

Gap Decisions

Change Goals

ChangeForecasts

One cannot know the future with certainty; but one can know a range of possible futures

Likelihood can be changed by policy and policy consequences can be explored

Judgment is not only permissible but necessary in some methods

Humans will have more influence on the future than in the past

Futures research is not a science

Large data

bases

ScenariosEconomet

ric Models

Delphi

Internet

Large data

basesTrend Impact

Analysis

Robust Decision Making

Real Time

Delphi

State of the

Future Index

Analysis Softwar

e

Collective

Intelligence

SystemsExperts

and Models

Example of SOFI (State of the Future Index) variables:Infant mortalityFood availabilityGNP per capita Access to fresh waterCO2 emissionsLiteracyWarsAIDS deathsTerrorist attacksDebt ratioUnemploymentCalories per capitaHealth careForest landsRich poor gap

…

Comparison of SOFI's

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

The problem of disaggregation

Becoming more useful: linking to decision makers

Extending the unknowable

Given a set of forecasts and the passage of time, we can check to see

Which have occurred when expected

Which have not happened but may yet

What was omitted from the study

Omitted futures are

Unknown but knowable, given the right tools

Unknown and unknowable

2

Selected Forecasts From 1964 RAND Delphi

Economically useful desalination of sea water 1970 1964-1980

Effective fertility control by oral contraceptive or other simple and inexpensive means 1970 1970-1983

Development of new synthetic ultra light materials 1971 1970-1978

Automated language translators 1972 1968-1976

New organs through transplanting or prosthesis 1972 1968-1982

Reliable weather forecasts 1975 1972-1988

Operation of a central data storage facility with wide access for generalized or 1980 1971-1991special information retrieval

Reformation of physical theory, eliminating confusion in quantum relativity and 1980 1975-1993simplifying particle theory

Implanted artificial organs made of plastic and electronic components 1981 1975-1988

3

MRI and CAT scans

Housing bubble

Cold war collapse

Nanotechnology

Google

Green revolution

HIV/AIDs

Hubble and the Large Hadron Collider

5

Anchored in history

Extrapolative : Most forecasts most of the tim

Scheduled and planned

Popular Image

Unanchored (unknown and unknowable)

7

Plausibility

HighLow

Significance

High

Low

Extrapolative

Scheduled and planned

Popular Images

Unanchored

8

The Shape of Future Ideas

Ideas before their time, non-Gaussian, non-linear, non-extrapolative, unexpected, often seen as infeasible or undesirable, counter paradigmatic

Controlled anti-gravity Faster than light particles or waves Time travel to the past Controlled positive telepathy Discovery of the cause of the “big bang” Proof that we are indeed alone in the

universe Youth pill Understanding cellular differentiation

16

Greed, corruption, and deceit led to a world recession

Over $1 trillion is paid in bribes each year; organized crime takes in over $2 trillion

Most of the annual 50 million tons of e-waste is dumped in developing countries

12–27 million people are slaves today

Media focuses on trivial news, and encourages unneeded products and unethical behavior.

 

The Chinese godmother case China’s education minister in a corruption scandal Is China is stripping Africa of raw materials? New US 'hate crime' legislation that adds sexual

orientation to other protected categories Shooting in Afghanistan: where is the breaking

point Insider trading prosecution using big stick Former commissioner of the NYPD pleaded guilty

to corruption charges A dozen states sue drug manufacturer over

allegations of kickbacksSource: newsline@globalethics.org; Nov 9, 2009

Low Corruption

High Corruption

Principles of conduct (human behavior not “things”)

Right vs. wrong (legal vs. illegal) -easy Right vs. right- tough

Ends based Utilitarian- greatest good for greatest number

Rules based Kantian: behavior followed by everyone

Care based Golden rule

Source: Institute for Global Ethics

Justice vs. Mercy The death penalty

Short-term vs. long term The stimulus package

Individual vs. Community Cheating on taxes

Truth vs. Loyalty Whistle blowing

Source: Institute for Global Ethics

The airline captain and the dying passenger

The cash flows in Bosnia

The prospect for avalanche or bankruptcy

Question: Does the acceleration of science,

and the technology that follows, lead to a better world?

Government social marketing Positive weather control Cheap fresh water from salt water Massively destructive cyber-attacks Attempts at revival of extinct species Large scale improvement in life expectancy Chemicals for improving intelligence Invisibility cloaking Brain decoding

Early '80's Venezuela: Minister of State for the Development of Human Intelligence.

The country was 85% illiterate Mission: to raise the level of intelligence of the nation New mothers: taught foundations of intelligence for

their babies 20 five-minute spots on TV channels and in community The arts and thinking skills were taught University professors: how to be thought-provoking Worker training programs for illiterate adults

http://www.newhorizons.org/trans/international/dickinson_venezuela.htm

Chimeras: laboratory mice with human brain cells Mapping the synapses Human- computer symbiosis, (neural caps) Human to human transfer: synapse interconnect Brain boosters Computers as legal persons with emotions Methods to improve collective intelligence Tailored psychotropes (dream pills) Intuition, spiritual, and para-psychological phenomena Thought-control technology

Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG

Millennium Project, 2004- 05

Identify the key ethical issues of the next 50 years

Identify the key solution principles.

300 participants Europe, Latin America, North America, Asia,

Middle East, Africa Academics, consultants, NGO’s, government,

corporate

Round 1 Identify unique issues, promising to change human

behavior, for better or worse. (Time periods: 2010, 2025, 2050)

1300 suggestions, edited to 870 Statements about ethical decision principles

Round 2 For ethical issues: judge importance and difficulty to

resolve For the ethical decision principles: judge how widely

the principles might be accepted

Ethical Norms

FreedomJusticeCompassionDrivers

InstinctMediaReligionFamilyTechnology

Decision Principles

People are responsible for actionsSurvival is the highest priority.Hippocratic Oath: Do no harm.Golden rule

Ethical Issues Come From Conflict

“Privacy” vs. “Security of the group”

Technology

Economics

Natural Phenomena

Terrorism

Drivers

•Culture:•The family is the fundamental nucleus •Religion•Tradition

•The social environment•Violence in the media .•Demographics•Peers (or anti peers)

•Technology and science

Ethical Norms

Global ethical norms are as important as international laws.

-Primacy of the family-Democracy, freedom .-Protection of the planet-Justice-Compassion-Security-Value of imagination -Value of the human being-Love of people, animals, nature

Decision Principles

•Access to education is a fundamental right.

•The rights of women and children are uninfringeable

•Be fair

•Consider the environment and biodiversity

•Human survival is the highest priority.

•Make decisions which do no harm.

•Science, technology should serve society, rather than just pursue knowledge.

Ethical Issues Come From Conflict

Technology Economics

Natural Phenomena

Terrorism

•Is it ethical for society to create artificially intelligent elites?

•Should there be limits to pursuit of happiness?

•Should elimination of aging be available to all?

•Is it right to create intelligent “beings” that can compete with humans?

Ethical Issues Come From Conflict

Technology Economics

Natural Phenomena

Terrorism

•Should there be a right to suicide, euthanasia?

•Will it be right to modify newborns future violent behavior (search for SIMAD?)

•Is it ethical to extend lifespan at any cost?

The right to see or to be not seen

The right to influence

The right to constrain based on anticipation

The right to intervene based on behavior

Some principles apply across time (in top 10 across time):

▪Access to education is a fundamental human right.

▪People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.

▪Human survival as a species is the highest priority.

▪Treat other people the way you would like to be treated.

▪Science and technology should serve society, rather than pursue knowledge for its own sake.

Promote human survival Take responsibility Would it be acceptable if you were

recipient Promote education Use science and technology to serve

society

Care for future generations Do no harm Have universal applicability Show compassion, justice, fairness. Safeguard the rights of women and children Mitigate suffering

Would you want everyone to do as you have done? (Rule based)

Does it benefit more people than it hurts (Ends based)

Would you want it done to you? (Care based)

Do no harm (Hippocratic oath)

Would you mind seeing it in the NYT?

TransinstitutionsMany challenges cannot be addressed by existing organizations acting alone.

A New Decision Training CurriculumIrrational decisions, lessons of history, futures research, cognitive science, statistics, decision support methods, collective intelligence, ethics, goal seeking, risk, leadership, transparency, accountability, participatory decisionmaking .

Keep humans in the loopMuch decision making can be automated, but autonomous systems carry danger.