decision making lecture
TRANSCRIPT
Conformity[Asch, 1951, 1955, 1956]
• Is the test line equal in length to A, B, or C?
• Small (3 of 4) majorities are sufficient to elicit substantial conformity with a wrong result
• Any opposition can have a major effect; even a single dissenting individual can nullify the effect!
Asch Results: The Pressure to Conform
Condition Error rate
Subject is alone 1%
With 1 person who says “A” 3%
With 2 persons who say “A” 13%
With 3 persons who say “A” 33%
With 6 persons who say “A” and 1 person who says “B”
6%
Decision Making
Dr. Joe O’Mahoney 200707906133649
Learning objectives
• To critique rational approaches of decision making
• To understand the benefits and drawbacks of group decision making
• To understand and apply the concept of groupthink
• To learn some examples of decision-making
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‘Rational’ Decision Making
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• Traditional Types– Forcefield analysis
– Pareto diagam
– Cost / Benefit diagram
• Assumptions– Rational
– Objective
– Omniscient
Rational Decisions?
• Juries give more extreme punishments than individuals
• 75% people will kill others when told to do so by an authority figure
• You are ten times more likely to report an incident if you’re alone
• You are 30 times more likely to give an (incorrect) answer if your peers do
• Enron, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Bay of Pigs, Iraq…..
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Logical Constraints
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• Epistemology– Can’t predict the (social) future
– Can’t prove Cause and Effect
– Luck?
• Decision based on – Organisation benefit?
– Stakeholder benefit?
– Individual benefit?
Psychological Constraints
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• Conformity Bias (Kelman, 1958)
• Risky Shift e.g. surgery (Stoner, 1961)
• Polarisation e.g. French vs. Americans (Moscovici, 1969)
• Social Loafing e.g. Tug-of-war (Ingham, 1974; Latane, 1974)
Social Constraints
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• Cultural Norms
• Socialisation
• Obedience to Authority
Group Think (Janis, 1972)
• Disasters– Pearl Harbour, – Bay of Pigs, – Watergate, – Challenger
• Commonalities– Under pressure to make decisions– Isolation of group from outside– High stress from external threats– Feeling of invulnerability– Social pressure to conform– Stereotyping of dissenters
• Today– Iraq?– De Mendez shooting?
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Group Decision Making
• Advantages:– Multiple views and types of expertise– Social facilitation due to directed open discussion– Brainstorming might lead to creative solutions
• Disadvantages:– Often fails to equal the best individual solution– Polarization effect (e.g., “risky shift” phenomenon)– Social loafing (pool, elevator experiments)– In general: No optimal decision rule exists for more than 2 options
• Importance of HOW process is managed– Facilitators– Turns in speaking– Pros and cons
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