decision making under uncertainty rees presentationa
TRANSCRIPT
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Decision making under uncertainty
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Complex Risk Systems view
Interdisciplinary Multidisciplinary Transdisciplinary
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Challenges – Uncertainty
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• Common interest in uncertainty • Cross-sectoral focus • Development of non-RCUK partnerships • Measurable impact • Potential growth area for councils
RCUK Uncertainty Research
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Existing RCUK initiatives
Multiple networks, institutions, training centres
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Call for Networks Proposals for networks to build 1-2 (£750k
max) Multidisciplinary academic & practitioner networks focussed on developing new tools and approaches to enable decision making under uncertainty.
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Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community.
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Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community. Engage with user organisations to analyse real world systems and, and enable two-way transfer and application of approaches
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Develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and to grow a multi-disciplinary community. Engage with user organisations to analyse real world systems and, and enable two-way transfer and application of approaches Identify areas for new multi-disciplinary research & knowledge translation to inform future research council investments
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Research needs Development of methods to assimilate uncertainty in decision theory for extreme events
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Research needs Formalisation of analysis of behaviour/ cognition/ perception and subjective based approaches into statistical approaches
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Research needs Methods to characterise, quantify, communicate and propogate uncertainty that could be universally applied to complex systems
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Research needs Developing decision theory to handle multi-modal uncertainty in complex (and fast changing) systems
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Challenges • Split decision-making • Different cultures, schedules, priorities,
organisational objectives • Confusion/
conflict with exiting initiatives
• Indistinct boundaries
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Key points
A great opportunity to: • work across disciplines • have substantial impact
by providing value to non-RCUK partners
• Influence the fast evolving RCUK research agenda
Questions ?