decision sciences certificate program basis statistics
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DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM BASIS STATISTICS BUSINESS CALCULUS Quantitative Business Analysis ----PLUS—TWO ELECTIVES--------- BUS 191 DECISION ANALYSIS BUS 196D DATA MINING
POTENTIAL ELECTIVES STATISTICS II Quantitative Methods for Supply
Chain PLANNING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FINANCIAL ENGINEERING
BUS 191: DECISION MAKING UNDER
UNCERTAINTYDr. Ron Davis
BT 355: [email protected]
www.cob.sjsu.edu/facstaff/davis_r/[email protected]
Office Hours BT 355; (408) 924-3547 MW 3:15-5:45pm;
Tue 2:45-5:45pm Online the night before
exams in Elluminate Chatroom for BUS191
PREREQUISITES
MATH 70 – Finite Math (optional)
BUS 90 – Business Statistics Equivalency Forms Signed
REFERENCE TEXT
MAKING HARD DECISIONS with DecisionTools by Robert Clemen/Terence Reilly
The DecisionTools Suite from Palisade Corp.
Course Reader Chapters
TOPICS IN DECISION ANALYSIS
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Discrete Continuous
UTILITY FUNCTIONS – (Exponential) BASIC DECISION PROBLEM
EVPI and CEVPI DECISION TREES AND BAYESIAN INVERSION
EVSI and CEVSI INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS – (Data Structures) SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
RAINBOW DIAGRAMS TORNADO DIAGRAMS
SOFTWARE ADD-INS from PALISADE CORP Case Studies
EXCEL ADD-INS The DecisionTools Suite
RISKview – Distribution viewing tool BestFit – Data Fitting with multiple distributions @RISK – Risk analysis and Simulation PrecisionTree – influence diagrams and decision
trees TopRank – “What if” sensitivity analysis tool RISKOptimizer – optimization of simulation
models
BlackBoard WEB Course Technology
http://sjsu6.blackboard.com WebCT account
UserID = Student ID with “W” in front Password = spring (or your choice)
BUS 191 will be in your course list
Blackboard FEATURES Course Content Calendar eMail Bulletin Board Chat Room
BASIS FOR GRADE Four Computer Projects
50 or 100 points each Data Analysis – Best Fit Distribution Analysis – RISKview Simulation - @Risk and RISKOptimizer Decision Analysis – PrecisionTree and TopRank
Three Exams MidTerms 1 & 2: 150 points Final: 250 points
Extra Credit 10 URLS on OR/MS in use today ~25 points per project
EXTRA CREDIT ADJUSTMENT FORMULA
ST = Semester point Total EC = Extra Credit point total SA = Adjusted Score SA= 850*(ST+EC)/(850+EC) SA computed in EXCEL not Blackboard Computations done in Excel, does not
show in WebCT
EXAM RULES CHEAT SHEETS ALLOWED
One page notes each midterm Three pages for the final
CHEATING NOT ALLOWED No talking until you leave the room No passing of papers back and forth No copying of answers from neighbor Sharing of points for identical answers
HINTS FOR YOUR SUCCESS
Use a three ring notebook binder Print stuff from the web Punch holes in your printout and store
in your three ring binder Work all the practice problems Browse the web using search engines
for extra credit points and related info
TYPES OF DECISIONS
DECISION QUALITY CHAIN
DECISION QUALITY RATINGS
DECISION PROCESS
ORGANIZATIONAL DECISIONS