decision support and business intelligence...

Decision Support and Business Intelligence

Systems (9th Ed., Prentice Hall)

Chapter 4: Modeling and Analysis

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-2

Learning Objectives

n  Understand the basic concepts of management support system (MSS) modeling

n  Describe how MSS models interact with data and the users

n  Understand the well-known model classes and decision making with a few alternatives

n  Describe how spreadsheets can be used for MSS modeling and solution

n  Explain the basic concepts of optimization, simulation and heuristics; when to use which


Learning Objectives

n  Describe how to structure a linear programming model

n  Understand how search methods are used to solve MSS models

n  Explain the differences among algorithms, blind search, and heuristics

n  Describe how to handle multiple goals n  Explain what is meant by sensitivity analysis,

what-if analysis, and goal seeking n  Describe the key issues of model management


Opening Vignette:

“Model-Based Auctions Serve More Lunches in Chile”

n  Background: problem situation n  Proposed solution n  Results n  Answer and discuss the case questions


Modeling and Analysis Topics

n  Modeling for MSS (a critical component) n  Static and dynamic models n  Treating certainty, uncertainty, and risk n  Influence diagrams (in the posted PDF file) n  MSS modeling in spreadsheets n  Decision analysis of a few alternatives (with decision

tables and decision trees) n  Optimization via mathematical programming n  Heuristic programming n  Simulation n  Model base management


MSS Modeling

n  A key element in most MSS n  Leads to reduced cost and increased revenue

n  DuPont Simulates Rail Transportation System and Avoids Costly Capital Expenses

n  Procter & Gamble uses several DSS models collectively to support strategic decisions

n  Locating distribution centers, assignment of DCs to warehouses/customers, forecasting demand, scheduling production per product type, etc.

n  Fiat, Pillowtex (…operational efficiency)…


Major Modeling Issues

n  Problem identification and environmental analysis (information collection)

n  Variable identification n  Influence diagrams, cognitive maps

n  Forecasting/predicting n  More information leads to better prediction

n  Multiple models: A MSS can include several models, each of which represents a different part of the decision-making problem n  Categories of models >>>

n  Model management


Categories of Models Category Objective Techniques

Optimization of problems with few alternatives

Find the best solution from a small number of alternatives

Decision tables, decision trees

Optimization via algorithm

Find the best solution from a large number of alternatives using a step-by-step process

Linear and other mathematical programming models

Optimization via an analytic formula

Find the best solution in one step using a formula

Some inventory models

Simulation Find a good enough solution by experimenting with a dynamic model of the system

Several types of simulation

Heuristics Find a good enough solution using “common-sense” rules

Heuristic programming and expert systems

Predictive and other models

Predict future occurrences, what-if analysis, …

Forecasting, Markov chains, financial, …


Static and Dynamic Models

n  Static Analysis n  Single snapshot of the situation n  Single interval n  Steady state

n  Dynamic Analysis

n  Dynamic models n  Evaluate scenarios that change over time n  Time dependent n  Represents trends and patterns over time n  More realistic: Extends static models


Decision Making: Treating Certainty, Uncertainty and Risk

n  Certainty Models n  Assume complete knowledge n  All potential outcomes are known n  May yield optimal solution

n  Uncertainty n  Several outcomes for each decision n  Probability of each outcome is unknown n  Knowledge would lead to less uncertainty

n  Risk analysis (probabilistic decision making) n  Probability of each of several outcomes occurring n  Level of uncertainty => Risk (expected value)


Certainty, Uncertainty and Risk


Influence Diagrams (Posted on the Course Website)

n  Graphical representations of a model “Model of a model”

n  A tool for visual communication n  Some influence diagram packages create and solve

the mathematical model n  Framework for expressing MSS model relationships

Rectangle = a decision variable Circle = uncontrollable or intermediate variable Oval = result (outcome) variable: intermediate or final

Variables are connected with arrows à indicates the direction of influence (relationship)


Influence Diagrams: Relationships

Amount inCDs

InterestCollected

Price

Sales

Sales

~Demand

CERTAINTY

UNCERTAINTY

RANDOM (risk) variable: Place a tilde (~) above the variable’s name

The shape of the arrow

indicates the type of

relationship


Influence Diagrams: Example

~Amount used inAdvertisement

Unit Price

Units Sold

Unit Cost

Fixed Cost

Income

Expenses

Profit

An influence diagram for the profit model

Profit = Income – Expense Income = UnitsSold * UnitPrice UnitsSold = 0.5 * Advertisement Expense Expenses = UnitsCost * UnitSold + FixedCost


Influence Diagrams: Software

n  Analytica, Lumina Decision Systems n  Supports hierarchical (multi-level) diagrams

n  DecisionPro, Vanguard Software Co. n  Supports hierarchical (tree structured) diagrams

n  DATA Decision Analysis, TreeAge Software n  Includes influence diagrams, decision trees and simulation

n  Definitive Scenario, Definitive Software n  Integrates influence diagrams and Excel, also supports

Monte Carlo simulations

n  PrecisionTree, Palisade Co. n  Creates influence diagrams and decision trees directly in an

Excel spreadsheet


Analytica Influence Diagram of a Marketing Problem: The Marketing Model


Analytica: The Price Submodel


Analytica: The Sales Submodel


MSS Modeling with Spreadsheets n  Spreadsheet: most popular end-user modeling tool n  Flexible and easy to use n  Powerful functions

n  Add-in functions and solvers n  Programmability (via macros) n  What-if analysis n  Goal seeking n  Simple database management n  Seamless integration of model and data n  Incorporates both static and dynamic models n  Examples: Microsoft Excel, Lotus 1-2-3


Excel spreadsheet - static model example: Simple loan calculation of monthly payments

⎥⎦

⎤⎢⎣

⎡

−++

=

+=

1)1()1(

)1(

n

n

n

iiiPA

iPF


Excel spreadsheet - Dynamic model example: Simple loan calculation of monthly payments and effects of prepayment


Decision Analysis: A Few Alternatives Single Goal Situations Decision tables

n  Multiple criteria decision analysis n  Features include decision

variables (alternatives), uncontrollable variables, result variables

n  Decision trees n  Graphical representation of

relationships n  Multiple criteria approach n  Demonstrates complex

relationships n  Cumbersome, if many

alternatives exists


Decision Tables

n  Investment example

n  One goal: maximize the yield after one year

n  Yield depends on the status of the economy (the state of nature)

n  Solid growth n  Stagnation n  Inflation


Investment Example: Possible Situations

1. If solid growth in the economy, bonds yield 12%;

stocks 15%; time deposits 6.5% 2. If stagnation, bonds yield 6%; stocks 3%; time

deposits 6.5% 3. If inflation, bonds yield 3%; stocks lose 2%; time

deposits yield 6.5%


n  Payoff Decision variables (alternatives) n  Uncontrollable variables (states of economy) n  Result variables (projected yield)

n  Tabular representation:

Investment Example: Decision Table


Investment Example: Treating Uncertainty n  Optimistic approach n  Pessimistic approach n  Treating Risk:

n  Use known probabilities n  Risk analysis: compute expected values


Decision Analysis: A Few Alternatives

n  Other methods of treating risk n  Simulation, Certainty factors, Fuzzy logic

n  Multiple goals n  Yield, safety, and liquidity


MSS Mathematical Models

Decision Variables

Mathematical Relationships

Uncontrollable Variables

Result Variables

n  Non-Quantitative Models (Qualitative) n  Captures symbolic relationships between decision variables, uncontrollable

variables and result variables

n  Quantitative Models: Mathematically links decision variables, uncontrollable variables, and result variables n  Decision variables describe alternative choices. n  Uncontrollable variables are outside decision-maker’s control n  Result variables are dependent on chosen combination of decision variables

and uncontrollable variables

Dependent Variables

Intermediate Variables


Optimization via Mathematical Programming

n  Mathematical Programming A family of tools designed to help solve managerial problems in which the decision maker must allocate scarce resources among competing activities to optimize a measurable goal

n  Optimal solution: The best possible solution to a modeled problem n  Linear programming (LP): A mathematical model

for the optimal solution of resource allocation problems. All the relationships are linear


LP Problem Characteristics

1. Limited quantity of economic resources 2. Resources are used in the production of

products or services 3. Two or more ways (solutions, programs) to

use the resources 4. Each activity (product or service) yields a

return in terms of the goal 5. Allocation is usually restricted by constraints


Line

Linear Programming Steps

n  1. Identify the … n  Decision variables n  Objective function n  Objective function coefficients n  Constraints

n  Capacities / Demands

n  2. Represent the model n  LINDO: Write mathematical formulation n  EXCEL: Input data into specific cells in Excel

n  3. Run the model and observe the results


LP Example

The Product-Mix Linear Programming Model n  MBI Corporation n  Decision: How many computers to build next month? n  Two types of mainframe computers: CC7 and CC8 n  Constraints: Labor limits, Materials limit, Marketing lower limits

CC7 CC8 Rel Limit

Labor (days) 300 500 <= 200,000 /mo Materials ($) 10,000 15,000 <= 8,000,000 /mo Units 1 >= 100 Units 1 >= 200 Profit ($) 8,000 12,000 Max Objective: Maximize Total Profit / Month


LP Solution


LP Solution

n  Decision Variables: X1: unit of CC-7 X2: unit of CC-8

n  Objective Function: Maximize Z (profit) Z=8000X1+12000X2

n  Subject To 300X1 + 500X2 ≤ 200K 10000X1 + 15000X2 ≤ 8000K X1 ≥ 100 X2 ≥ 200


Sensitivity, What-if, and Goal Seeking Analysis

n  Sensitivity n  Assesses impact of change in inputs on outputs n  Eliminates or reduces variables n  Can be automatic or trial and error

n  What-if n  Assesses solutions based on changes in variables or

assumptions (scenario analysis) n  Goal seeking

n  Backwards approach, starts with goal n  Determines values of inputs needed to achieve goal n  Example is break-even point determination


Heuristic Programming

n  Cuts the search space n  Gets satisfactory solutions more

quickly and less expensively n  Finds good enough feasible

solutions to very complex problems

n  Heuristics can be n  Quantitative n  Qualitative (in ES)

n  Traveling Salesman Problem >>>


Heuristic Programming - SEARCH


Traveling Salesman Problem

n  What is it? n  A traveling salesman must visit customers in

several cities, visiting each city only once, across the country. Goal: Find the shortest possible route

n  Total number of unique routes (TNUR): TNUR = (1/2) (Number of Cities – 1)! Number of Cities TNUR 5 12 6 60 9 20,160 20 1.22 1018


When to Use Heuristics

When to Use Heuristics n  Inexact or limited input data n  Complex reality n  Reliable, exact algorithm not available n  Computation time excessive n  For making quick decisions

Limitations of Heuristics n  Cannot guarantee an optimal solution


n  Tabu search n  Intelligent search algorithm

n  Genetic algorithms n  Survival of the fittest

n  Simulated annealing n  Analogy to Thermodynamics

Modern Heuristic Methods


Simulation

n  Technique for conducting experiments with a computer on a comprehensive model of the behavior of a system

n  Frequently used in DSS tools


n  Imitates reality and capture its richness n  Technique for conducting experiments n  Descriptive, not normative tool n  Often to “solve” very complex problems

Simulation is normally used only when a problem is too complex to be treated using numerical optimization techniques

Major Characteristics of Simulation

!


Advantages of Simulation

n  The theory is fairly straightforward n  Great deal of time compression n  Experiment with different alternatives n  The model reflects manager’s perspective n  Can handle wide variety of problem types n  Can include the real complexities of problems n  Produces important performance measures n  Often it is the only DSS modeling tool for

non-structured problems


Limitations of Simulation

n  Cannot guarantee an optimal solution n  Slow and costly construction process n  Cannot transfer solutions and inferences to

solve other problems (problem specific) n  So easy to explain/sell to managers, may lead

overlooking analytical solutions n  Software may require special skills


Simulation Methodology n  Model real system and conduct repetitive experiments. n  Steps:

1. Define problem 5. Conduct experiments 2. Construct simulation model 6. Evaluate results 3. Test and validate model 7. Implement solution 4. Design experiments


Simulation Types

n  Stochastic vs. Deterministic Simulation n  In stochastic simulations: We use distributions (Discrete or

Continuous probability distributions)

n  Time-dependent vs. Time-independent Simulation n  Time independent stochastic simulation via Monte Carlo

technique (X = A + B)

n  Discrete event vs. Continuous simulation n  Steady State vs. Transient Simulation n  Simulation Implementation

n  Visual simulation n  Object-oriented simulation


n  Visual interactive modeling (VIM) Also called

n  Visual interactive problem solving n  Visual interactive modeling n  Visual interactive simulation

n  Uses computer graphics to present the impact of different management decisions

n  Often integrated with GIS n  Users perform sensitivity analysis n  Static or a dynamic (animation) systems

Visual Interactive Modeling (VIM) / Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS)


Model Base Management

n  MBMS: capabilities similar to that of DBMS n  But, there are no comprehensive model base

management packages n  Each organization uses models somewhat

differently n  There are many model classes

n  Within each class there are different solution approaches

n  Relations MBMS n  Object-oriented MBMS


End of the Chapter

n  Questions / Comments…


All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,

mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America.

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

decision support and business intelligence...

Documents