decision support for watershed assessment, protection and restoration keith m. reynolds scott d....

Decision support for watershed assessment,

protection and restoration

Decision support for watershed assessment,

protection and restoration

Keith M. ReynoldsScott D. Peets

USDA Forest Service PNW Research StationUSDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Four dimensions of integrationFour dimensions of integration


Chewaucan integrated assessmentChewaucan integrated assessment

Within scaleWithin scale Concurrent evaluation of upland, riparian, and in-Concurrent evaluation of upland, riparian, and in-

channel attributes relative to stream reach and channel attributes relative to stream reach and watershed condition.watershed condition.

Across scaleAcross scale Linking evaluations over spatial scales.Linking evaluations over spatial scales. Comparing evaluations over time.Comparing evaluations over time.

Across phases of adaptive managementAcross phases of adaptive management Going from assessment to planning and implementation Going from assessment to planning and implementation

for protection and restoration.for protection and restoration.


Within scale: EMDS systemWithin scale: EMDS system

EMDS = Ecosystem management decision supportEMDS = Ecosystem management decision support EMDS goals and objectivesEMDS goals and objectives

Improve the efficiency with which assessments are Improve the efficiency with which assessments are conductedconducted

o Optimize use of informationOptimize use of information

Improve the quality of assessment productsImprove the quality of assessment productso More comprehensive analysisMore comprehensive analysiso Better integration of diverse topicsBetter integration of diverse topics


AdaptiveAdaptivemanagementmanagement

cyclecycle

MonitorMonitor

PlanPlanPlanPlan

ActActEvaluateEvaluate

Goals Knowledge Technology InventoryGoals Knowledge Technology Inventory

Revised goalsRevised goals

New knowledgeNew knowledge

InventoryInventory

New technologyNew technology

EMDS in adaptive managementEMDS in adaptive management


Knowledge basesKnowledge bases

EMDS is an ArcView extension that integrates EMDS is an ArcView extension that integrates knowledge-based reasoning into GISknowledge-based reasoning into GIS

A KB is a meta databaseA KB is a meta database A A formal logical representationformal logical representation of how to evaluate of how to evaluate

informationinformation

Numerous, diverse topics can be analyzed within a Numerous, diverse topics can be analyzed within a single knowledge basesingle knowledge base

Integrated analysisIntegrated analysis

Knowledge base of networksKnowledge base of networks

Concern

Ecostate Ecostate

Ecostate Ecostate Link Link

Link LinkLink

= NetworkConcern

Etc.

Data

Knowledge base processingKnowledge base processing

Concern

Ecostate

Ecostate Ecostate

Link LinkLink

Get

dat

a re

quir

emen

ts

Eva

luat

e da

ta


Forms of uncertaintyForms of uncertainty

ProbabilisticProbabilistic Uncertainty of eventsUncertainty of events

LinguisticLinguistic Lofti Zadeh, 1966Lofti Zadeh, 1966 Uncertainty about the definition of the eventUncertainty about the definition of the event A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which

one can assign a measure of truthone can assign a measure of truth Truth values Truth values

Indices that quantify the degree of support for a Indices that quantify the degree of support for a proposition provided by its premisesproposition provided by its premises


Fuzzy membership functionsFuzzy membership functions


Chewaucan basin: a multi-scale exampleChewaucan basin: a multi-scale example

Prototyping watershed Prototyping watershed assessment for the assessment for the evaluation monitoring evaluation monitoring program of the NWFP program of the NWFP Aquatic Conservation Aquatic Conservation Strategy:Strategy:

dealing with multiple scales dealing with multiple scales and making the process and making the process more consistent.more consistent.


Sequence of steps in assessment and priority‑setting. Sequence of steps in assessment and priority‑setting.

Evaluate reachesEvaluate reaches

Summarize reach condition to watershed scaleSummarize reach condition to watershed scale

Evaluate watershedsEvaluate watersheds

Set priorities for watershed protection & restorationSet priorities for watershed protection & restoration

Set priorities for reach protection & restorationSet priorities for reach protection & restoration


Analysis strategyAnalysis strategy

Synthesis upward from reaches to watershedsSynthesis upward from reaches to watersheds Watershed assessment includes reach evaluationsWatershed assessment includes reach evaluations

Length-weighted average of reach index scoresLength-weighted average of reach index scores

Priority setting for protection and restoration is a Priority setting for protection and restoration is a step-down processstep-down process Prioritize watersheds, considering feasibility and Prioritize watersheds, considering feasibility and

efficacyefficacy Prioritize reaches, given watershed priority, and Prioritize reaches, given watershed priority, and

additional feasibility and efficacy criteriaadditional feasibility and efficacy criteria


Watersheds and reaches evaluatedWatersheds and reaches evaluated


Reach level knowledge baseReach level knowledge base

The logic specification The logic specification of a proposition: of a proposition:

The proposition of The proposition of suitable reach suitable reach condition evaluates as condition evaluates as true to the degree that true to the degree that its underlying its underlying premises are true.premises are true.


Reach knowledge base design continuedReach knowledge base design continued

A computed datum A computed datum evaluated against a evaluated against a fuzzy membership fuzzy membership function that is function that is dynamically defined. dynamically defined.

In-channel depends In-channel depends on several reach on several reach attributes …attributes …


Evaluating the in-channel networkEvaluating the in-channel network

The in-channel The in-channel topic is a premise topic is a premise of reach condition. of reach condition.

KB structure is KB structure is modular and well modular and well suited to suited to evolutionary design evolutionary design of complex models.of complex models.


Evaluation of reach conditionEvaluation of reach condition

Maps are the basic Maps are the basic products of an products of an EMDS assessment, EMDS assessment, but …but …


Interpreting map productsInterpreting map products

… … a knowledge base a knowledge base can also explain the can also explain the derivation of its derivation of its conclusions with conclusions with graphic, intuitive logic graphic, intuitive logic diagrams that show diagrams that show the evaluated state of the evaluated state of a knowledge base.a knowledge base.


Navigating the logicNavigating the logic

The entire logic structure The entire logic structure and all documentation is and all documentation is easily accessible to the easily accessible to the user and others who may user and others who may want to understand “the want to understand “the why.”why.”


Frequency of missing reach dataFrequency of missing reach data

EMDS is logic-based, EMDS is logic-based, and can reason with and can reason with incomplete incomplete information. information.


Influence of missing reach dataInfluence of missing reach data

The influence of The influence of data on the logical data on the logical completeness of completeness of an assessment is an assessment is highly dynamic.highly dynamic.


Frequency of reach index scoresFrequency of reach index scores

A snapshot in time A snapshot in time that can be that can be compared across compared across assessments with assessments with standard standard statistical tests statistical tests such as K-S.such as K-S.


Summary of reach evaluationsSummary of reach evaluations

WatershedWatershed Aggregate reach indexAggregate reach indexBear CreekBear Creek 0.100.10

Ben Young CreekBen Young Creek 0.330.33

Chewaucan RiverChewaucan River -0.10-0.10

Coffeepot CreekCoffeepot Creek 0.400.40

Dairy CreekDairy Creek 0.290.29

Elder CreekElder Creek 0.390.39

Morgan CreekMorgan Creek 0.060.06

South CreekSouth Creek -0.07-0.07

Swamp CreekSwamp Creek 0.200.20

Reach condition Reach condition indices are indices are aggregated over aggregated over watersheds for watersheds for input to the input to the watershed scale watershed scale analysis.analysis.

1.0 = true1.0 = true-1.0 = false-1.0 = false


Evaluating watershed conditionEvaluating watershed condition

The knowledge base The knowledge base operates at the operates at the watershed scale, but … watershed scale, but …


Linkage to the fine scaleLinkage to the fine scale

… … integrates synthesized integrates synthesized reach-level data from the reach-level data from the reach scale analysis.reach scale analysis.

The synthesis is a formal The synthesis is a formal specification for cross-specification for cross-scale linkage of analyses.scale linkage of analyses.


Watershed conditionWatershed condition

The index expresses the The index expresses the degree to which data degree to which data and logical antecedents and logical antecedents (e.g., premises) support (e.g., premises) support the proposition.the proposition.

Watershed condition Watershed condition depends on:depends on:

upland conditionupland conditionpassage barrierspassage barriersstream conditionstream condition


Upland condition: premise 1Upland condition: premise 1

This, and next two slides This, and next two slides show the state of primary show the state of primary premises underlying premises underlying evaluation of watershed evaluation of watershed condition.condition.

Upland condition depends Upland condition depends on:on:

canopy densitycanopy densityroad densityroad density


Passage condition: premise 2Passage condition: premise 2

Passage condition was Passage condition was expressed as percent of expressed as percent of main stem stream length main stem stream length accessible to fish.accessible to fish.


Stream condition: premise 3Stream condition: premise 3

Stream condition depends Stream condition depends on:on:

reach conditionreach conditionriparian vegetationriparian vegetationbank stabilitybank stabilityw/d ratiow/d ratiopool frequencypool frequencylarge woodlarge wood

spawning finesspawning fineswater temperaturewater temperature


Summary of limiting factors by watershedSummary of limiting factors by watershed

WatershedWatershed

Stream Stream conditioncondition

Upland Upland conditioncondition

Passage Passage barriersbarriers

BearBear

Ben YoungBen Young

ChewaucanChewaucan

CoffeepotCoffeepot

DairyDairy

ElderElder

MorganMorgan

SouthSouth

SwampSwamp


Setting priorities for watershed protection and restorationSetting priorities for watershed protection and restoration

An AHP model for WS An AHP model for WS restoration, based on restoration, based on results of the EMDS results of the EMDS assessment.assessment.

Some data re-evaluated Some data re-evaluated with respect to their with respect to their influence on feasibility influence on feasibility and efficacy.and efficacy.


Results of watershed priority modelResults of watershed priority model

Priority strategy:Priority strategy:

““Save the best Save the best and fix the rest.” and fix the rest.”


Explanation of watershed prioritiesExplanation of watershed priorities

How primary criteria How primary criteria in the AHP model in the AHP model contribute to the contribute to the total priority score total priority score for a watershed.for a watershed.


Reach restoration priority modelsReach restoration priority models

Common criteriaCommon criteria Watershed priority and reach conditionWatershed priority and reach condition

Forested reachesForested reaches Feasibility: bank stability, large wood and pool Feasibility: bank stability, large wood and pool

frequencyfrequency Efficacy: vegetation similarityEfficacy: vegetation similarity

Non-forested reachesNon-forested reaches Feasibility: bank stabilityFeasibility: bank stability Efficacy: pool frequency and veg similarityEfficacy: pool frequency and veg similarity


Setting priorities – forested reachesSetting priorities – forested reaches

An AHP model for reach An AHP model for reach restoration, based on restoration, based on results of the EMDS results of the EMDS assessment.assessment.

Some data re-evaluated Some data re-evaluated with respect to their with respect to their influence on feasibility and influence on feasibility and efficacy.efficacy.

(Efficacy)(Efficacy)


Protection and restoration priorities, forested reachesProtection and restoration priorities, forested reaches

Priority strategy:Priority strategy:

““Save the best Save the best and fix the rest.” and fix the rest.”


Contrib. of criteria, forested reachesContrib. of criteria, forested reaches


Analysis strategy (revisited)Analysis strategy (revisited)

Synthesis upward from reaches to watershedsSynthesis upward from reaches to watersheds Watershed assessment includes reach evaluationsWatershed assessment includes reach evaluations

Length weighted average of reach index scoresLength weighted average of reach index scores

Priority setting for protection and restoration is a Priority setting for protection and restoration is a step-down processstep-down process Prioritize watersheds, considering feasibility and Prioritize watersheds, considering feasibility and

efficacyefficacy Prioritize reaches, given watershed priority, and Prioritize reaches, given watershed priority, and

additional feasibility and efficacy criteriaadditional feasibility and efficacy criteria


keith reynoldskeith reynolds

Contact phone: 541-750-7434phone: 541-750-7434 email: [email protected]: [email protected]

EMDS websiteEMDS website http://www.fsl.orst.edu/emdshttp://www.fsl.orst.edu/emds

decision support for watershed assessment, protection and restoration keith m. reynolds scott d....

Documents

data slide

watershed scale

premises slide

evaluated slide

adaptive management

watershed priority

watershed condition

emds system emds