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Application of Simple Models in a Complex Environment John Jarrett – Atkins 19th August, 2009. Defence. Measuring the Benefits of Technologies to Expeditionary Campaign Infrastructure. British Forces Deployments since WW II. Camp/Base requirements. Self reliant Water Bulk water - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Defence
Measuring the Benefits of Technologies to Expeditionary Campaign Infrastructure
Application of Simple Models in a Complex Environment
John Jarrett – Atkins
19th August, 2009
British Forces Deployments since WW II
Camp/Base requirements
• Self reliant– Water
• Bulk water• Potable water
– Power– Waste Management
• Solid waste• Water• Bodily waste
– Protection
Camp requirements
• Facilities– Medical– Staff Working Environment (Command and
Control)– Workshops– Accommodation
• Sleeping• Catering• Ablutions
– Welfare
Types of Camps
• Forward Operating bases– Mobile– Tented
Accommodation– Basic facilities
Types of Camps
• Transitory Camps– Static– Establish a presence
in an area– Improved Tented
Accommodation– More sophisticated
facilities• A/C• Shower facilities• etc.
Types of Camps
• Temporary Camps– Static– Longer term– Temporary Deployable
Accommodation– More sophisticated
facilities
Vulnerabilities
• Protection– Personnel– Stores
• Fuel• Water
• Re-supply– Fuel– Water– Food
Re-supply
• Long lines of Communication• High demand for fuel and water• Regular requirement for
vulnerable convoys to maintain operations
• More convoys require more fuel
Some statistics
• A 7500 man camp uses about 12 million litres of fuel per year on Generators alone
• That requires 3 Tankers per day• Generators use about 60% of all fuel delivered to a camp• The Camp Stores about a third of a million litres just for
generators• Two thirds of the fuel will be used to power air-
conditioning units and to heat water (predominantly for Showers and washing)
Focus Area
• Energy and Water identified as key areas:– Offer greatest potential for improvement through
technology– Alternative Energy sources offer the potential of ‘free’
energy• The Accommodation, Ablutions and Catering areas
contained the vast majority of the requirement for Heating/Cooling and Water Heating.
Objective
• To be able to identify which future technologies offer the greatest potential to benefit a deployed camp– In a variety of climates– For a range of camp sizes and roles
• In that way funding can be directed in order to develop those technologies which offer the most benefit.
Measure of Effectiveness
Shared Processes
Power GenerationPotable Water Generation
Raw Materials Source
Camp Activities
SWE, Accm, Med, Tech
Waste Processing
Waste Materials Sink
Fuel and Water
Power
Potable Water
Grey Water
Black Water
Water Recycling
Waste Water
Solid WasteRecycling
Solid Waste
Military Capability
Camp Utility
Scenarios
Type and Level of Activities
RequiredCamp Utility
Solid Waste
Other Losses
Other Losses
Other Losses
Solution
• To develop a model to represent the camp as a single system– Modelling the ‘draw’ on power, and– The demand for water
• Use this model to represent alternative technologies on different types and sizes of camps in various climates
• Use ‘fuel used’ as a Measure of Effectiveness– The less fuel used the more effective the system– Assume constant ‘Capability’
Prototype Model description
Accom Ablutions
Laundry
Dining AreaKitchens
ShowersAccom
Accom
Accom
Accom
Showers
Dining Area
Accom
Accom
Accom
Accom
Accom
ECU8 persons50 personsFood Warmers
10 personsCookers
8 personsHot Water
Washing MachinesDryers
Hot Water
External temperature
Modelling Solution
• A time event simulation package used (SIMUL8)– Fast prototyping– Visual– Easily adaptable– Good Interface
• Data input• Output
Climate Control
Power Generation
Water Demand
Water Heating
Water Waste
ValidationPower use comparison
Model output vrs. Deployed Operational Camp data500 man ITC - Hot climate
00
:15
01
:15
02
:15
03
:15
04
:15
05
:15
06
:15
07
:15
08
:15
09
:15
10
:15
11
:15
12
:15
13
:15
14
:15
15
:15
16
:15
17
:15
18
:15
19
:15
20
:15
21
:15
22
:15
23
:15
Time
Po
wer
Dra
wn
(kW
)
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Tem
per
atu
re (
0 C)
Model Power use(incl. 100 kW)
Real life data(Deployed Camp)
ExternalTemperature
Technologies
• A technology trawl identified over 300 technologies pertinent to ECI
• Of which around 30 were relevant to Environmental control, Water use, Water heating or Power supply
• Some examples:– Spray-on foam insulation– Negative ion airflow – air wash– Solar Water heating– Water cooled evaporative air conditioning– Combined Heat & Power– Thermal paint – Heat reflective
Cases
• Two climates were considered:– Hot and Dry– Temperate
• Three types of Camp– FOB ~ 600 men– Transient ~ 2500 men– Temporary Camp ~ 7000 men
• Clearly some Technologies are not relevant to some camp types or climates.
Data and Assumptions
Shelter Type
Base Factor Wall Roof
Prefab - Wall/roof TDA 0.42 0.24
Tent Tent 3 3
Combined shelter/Tent ITC 1 1
U Factor
Designation Personnel Type Shelter ECUSleeping Accom
Ablutions (Showers)
Laundry Kitchens Dining Shower Laundry
Battle Group 600 FOB Tent No 75 8 1 7 12 0.67 2 Brigade level 2500 Transient ITC Yes 313 25 4 30 52 18 10 Div. Level 7000 Temporary TDA Yes 875 70 12 84 140 18 10
Source Mil. Eng. Vol VII - 2008 Army Code No 71867
Note: 8 shower heads per module FOB10 shower heads per module ITC/TDA
Camp Size Shelter ModulesHot Water usage
(per person per day)
• The following Data and Assumptions have been elicited from Stakeholders and reviewed/validated by the Study team
Data and Assumptions
Area Personnel EquipmentPower (kW)
excl ECU² + ³ECU (kW)² Water (l)¹ Time active
Sleeping Accom.
8¹ small 0.2 8.84 075% 20:00-06:0025% 06:00-20:00
Ablutions (Showers)
10¹ None 4.0 8.84 6050% 06:00:08:0050% 18:00-20:00
Kitchens 10¹ Cookers 48.8 3.79 005:00 - 08:0011:00 - 13:0017:00 - 19:00
Dining 50¹Food warmers
8.7 6.63 006:00 - 09:0012:00 - 14:0018:00 - 20:00
Laundry 0Washing machines
119.3 8.84 10 25% 08:00-20:00
Assumptions:Fridge/Freezer - 9 kW ea.
Each person outputs 300 W of heat Cookers - 31 kW
In Sleeping Accomodation (when occupied but not sleeping) Food Warmers - 8 kW ea.
2 Laptops (80 W ea.) working 50% of the time (18:00 - 22:00) Washing Machine/Dryer - 60 kW ea.
2 Lights (60 W ea.) (18:00 - 22:00)
Sources:1. Source Mil. Eng. Vol VII - 2008 3. Task 9L Power Study
Non attributed data is an estimate for the purposes of modellingConversion from kVA to kW assumes a Pow er Factor of 75%
Consumption
2. Reducing Fossil Fuel usage within ECI equipment – Scoping Study, ECI/9000/08/02/20090206, Issue 2 dated 6 Feb 09, Matthew Whittington, ECI Technical manager.
Wild' heat generated
Modelling of Technologies
Examples• Condensation Air conditioning (A/C)
– Performance assumptions• 60% of normal A/C power reqd. at 35oC plus• 75% below 35oC• 30 litres of water per unit per 8 hours
– Assumed not to be recycled• Spray on Foam
– Assumptions• Significantly decreased insulation factor (i.e. more insulated)
– OCF• Tents not re-usable, no longer agile
Low Technology solutions
• Some simple low tech solutions had been identified in order to lower consumption:– A/C on only when personnel present
• Timers• Movement sensors
– Share generator power between camp sections– Recycling of ‘Grey’ waste water
• Approximately 30% of grey waste water is suitable for recycling
Impact of Low Technology solutions
Baseline comparison
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
001
:15
02:3
003
:45
05:0
006
:15
07:3
008
:45
10:0
011
:15
12:3
013
:45
15:0
016
:15
17:3
018
:45
20:0
021
:15
22:3
023
:45
Time
Po
we
r D
raw
n (
kW
)
Baseline
Baseline 2
Results – Technology Options
Per Day Baseline 1Foam
CoatingEvaporation
ECUNegative Ion W/M
Solar Water
Heating
Generator Heat
Exchanger
Thermal Paint
Total Energy (GJ) 73 83% 72% 97% 94% 91% 88%Total Water (L) 112,000 100% 134% 83% 100% 100% 100%Total Fuel Use (L) 11,118 89% 82% 99% 96% 85% 93%
Relative to Baseline 1
Conclusions
• A Camp able to operate solely on locally exploited resources is still a mid to long term goal– More feasible for a FOB (much lower power reqt.)– Solar and Wind power are not constant providers– Storage of energy still has a low efficiency
However the adoption of:• efficient running of camp• technologies to lower power/water requirements
– technologies identified as being most effective for future investment
• Along with alternative power sources
Conclusions
Will lead to:• Lower reliance on Fossil fuels
– Reduction in day of supply requirement• Fewer resupply convoys (and in turn less fuel required to power the
convoys)• Lower storage reqt
– Less vulnerable to supply disruption– Reduction in casualties to re-supply convoys
• Lower reliance on local Water supplies– Less disruption to water supplies for local population (immediately and
for the future)
– Reduction in the need for specialist Engineering equipment (Drilling and Purification assets)
– Less vulnerable to supply disruption
• Smaller logistic footprint on the ground
The shape of things to come?
Questions