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  • UNCLASSIFIED

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    DEFENCE ASSESSMENT

    2014

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    DEFENCE ASSESSMENT 2014 ii

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    Published in May 2015 by the Ministry of Defence

    Available online at: http://defence.govt.nz

     Crown Copyright

    This copyright work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand licence. In

    essence, you are free to copy, distribute and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to the Ministry of Defence and abide by the other licence terms.

    To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/nz/. Please note that no

    Ministry of Defence or New Zealand Government emblem, logo or Coat of Arms may be used in any way which infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act 1981 or would infringe such provision if the relevant use occurred within New Zealand. Attribution to the Ministry of Defence should be in written form and not by reproduction of any such emblem, logo or Coat of

    Arms.

    http://defence.govt.nz/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/nz/

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    DEFENCE ASSESSMENT 2014 iii

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    CONTENTS

    Contents ______________________________________________________________ iii

    Figures ____________________________________________________________ iv

    Introduction _____________________________________________________________ i

    1. Trends and factors influencing conflict and cooperation _______________________ 3

    Conflict trends ___________________________________________________ 3 1.1.

    Conflict trends conclusions _________________________________________ 7 1.2.

    Drivers of conflict and cooperation ____________________________________ 8 1.3.

    Evolving areas of interest __________________________________________ 20 1.4.

    2. Geographic strategic assessment _______________________________________ 25

    New Zealand ___________________________________________________ 25 2.1.

    Antarctica and the Southern Ocean __________________________________ 30 2.2.

    Australia _______________________________________________________ 32 2.3.

    South Pacific ___________________________________________________ 34 2.4.

    North Asia _____________________________________________________ 38 2.5.

    South East Asia _________________________________________________ 42 2.6.

    South Asia _____________________________________________________ 48 2.7.

    North America and the Arctic _______________________________________ 50 2.8.

    Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation ______________________ 53 2.9.

    The Middle East and North Africa ___________________________________ 57 2.10.

    Sub-Saharan Africa ______________________________________________ 60 2.12.

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    DEFENCE ASSESSMENT 2014 iv

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    FIGURES

    Figure 1-1: Types and Numbers of Conflict ____________________________________ 4

    Figure 1-2: Missions Directed by the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations ______ 5

    Figure 1-3: Multi-Component Global Power Index _______________________________ 9

    Figure 1-4: Shares of Global Power Index _____________________________________ 9

    Figure 1-5: Real Defence Spending Changes Since the 2008 Financial Crisis ________ 10

    Figure 1-6: Changing Contribution to Global Growth as Percentage of GDP __________ 11

    Figure 1-7: Glacial Melt and Future Water Security in the Tibetan Plateau Region _____ 13

    Figure 1-8: Projected Median Population Age by Country for 2015-2040 _____________ 15

    Figure 1-9: Accelerating Adoption of Technology _______________________________ 17

    Figure 2-1: Maritime Boundaries ____________________________________________ 27

    Figure 2-2: Antarctic Region Map ___________________________________________ 30

    Figure 2-3: Average Increase in Percentage Point Share of GDP __________________ 39

    Figure 2-4: Defence Spending Trends in the Asia-Pacific_________________________ 44

    Figure 2-5: Association of South East Asian Nations Related Diplomatic Architecture ___ 46

    Figure 2-6: Defence Spending Trends in Europe _______________________________ 54

    file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401541 file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401542 file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401543 file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401546 file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401549 file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401550 file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401551 file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401552 file://edxmod/CorpDocs/Defence%20Assesssment%202014/Defence%20Assessment%20drafts/Defence%20Assessment%202014%20draft%20public%20version%20v3.docx%23_Toc417401554

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    DEFENCE ASSESSMENT 2014 1

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    INTRODUCTION

    The international environment is characterised by constant change. Change in the position and relative influence of various states, the role and influence of international institutions and non-state actors, and change in what constitutes internationally acceptable behaviour. It is an environment that is shaped by action and reaction, dialogue and dispute, coercion and cooperation.

    It is therefore important that all elements of national strategy are examined regularly and systematically.

    In order to effectively set a nation’s defence policy priorities, the contemporary strategic environment and the shape it may take in the future must be well understood. This in turn underpins decisions on the appropriate mix of military capabilities and relationships needed to advance national security interests.

    This document provides an assessment of the strategic environment out to 2040 and will inform the development of a new Defence White Paper 2015.

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    DEFENCE ASSESSMENT 2014 2

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    DEFENCE ASSESSMENT 2014 3

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    1. TRENDS AND FACTORS INFLUENCING CONFLICT AND COOPERATION

    In order to effect ively set a nation’s defence policy priorities, the contemporary strategic environment and the shape it may take in the future must be well understood. This in turn underpins decisions on the appropriate mix of military capabilities and relationships needed to advance national security interests.

    This Chapter is divided into three sections. Section one details major trends in the characteristics of contemporary conflict. Section two assesses the key themes that are broadly encouraging or deterring future conflict. Section three then assesses a number of evolving, thematic areas that are likely to affect future conflicts. The following Chapter rounds out this analysis, expanding on the observations made in the previous three sections through a geographic lens. All sections seek to place identified trends within short, medium or long - term contexts.

    1.1. CONFLICT TRENDS

    CHARACTER OF CONFLICT

    1. Conflict is traditionally divided into two types: between states (inter-state) and within states (intra-state) and is understood to exist across a spectrum of intensity.1 Generally, inter-state conflict has tended to be characterised by high intensity combat between conventional military forces operating according to the Laws of Armed Conflict.2 Intra-state conflict has generally been distinguished by lower intensities, and non-conventional military tactics (such as the use of improvised explosive devices) used by non-state groups which seek out new, innovative and asymmetric ways of fighting larger, more powerful armed forces. These groups make use of civilian populations and may disregard the restrictions and norms of international law.

    1 Intensity of conflict (high, medium, low) refers to the overall tempo, degree of violence and technological

    sophistication of the violence employed and/or encountered. The rate of consumption of resources can also be a measure of intensity. The intensity of a conflict is high when the violence is continuous or when the encounters between combatants are particularly violent; medium when violence is frequent; and low when violence is occasional. 2 The Law of Armed Conflict comprises a set of rules, established by treaty or custom, that seek to protect

    persons and property/objects that are (or may be) affected by armed conflict and limits the rights of parties to a conflict to use methods and

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