define the future of the industrial iot - eit digital · 1) augmented reality; 2) s. henderson and...
TRANSCRIPT
Etienne Scholl
5G: Business beyond communication
Define the future of the industrial IoT
This isEricsson
Etienne Scholl
Define the future of the industrial IoT
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 3
Ericsson at a glance
42,000
24,100
62,400
2.5 billion
1 billion
180
111,000
Subscribers
managed by us
Subscribers
supported by us
Services professionals Employees
Countries with customers
R&D Employees
Patents
In R&D
222,6 B. SEK Net Sales
31,6 B. SEK
NETWORKSCreate one network for
a million different needs
ITTransform IT to accelerate
business agility
MEDIADelight the TV
consumer every day
INDUSTRIESConnect industries to
accelerate performance
Full year 2016 figures
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 4
More connections
190020102000
10
30
50
15 years
26 billion connected devices
25 years
5 billion connected people
100 years
1 billion connected places
20
40
Con
ne
ctio
ns (
bill
ion
)
2020
Our vision
50 billion connected devices
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 5
Digitalization as a result of global mega trends
Source: Arthur D. Little
Scarcity and stability of resources Rise of emerging economies
Social & demographic shiftsUrbanization and integrated
mobility
New health & wellbeing demands Digital revolution
Hyper-competition Fast changing business ecosystems
New customer power and
sophistication Disruptive technological advances
GLOBAL TRENDS
BUSINESS TRENDS
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 6
All industries will face transformations
Source: Arthur D. Little Digital Transformation Study 2015 Examples
Continuous
improvement
Service everywhere
Embedded into
ecosystem
Personalization
Shared across
community
Product-as-a-service
Active creation
Value chain
disintegration
Manufacturing AutomotivePublic
Transport
Financial
ServicesHealthcarePublic safety
Energy &
utilities
Media &
entertainment
Automa-
ted threat
detection
Infotain-
ment
Remote
health-
care
Smart grid
Autono-
mous cars
P2P
Money
Transfer
Sourcing
via e-
commerce
Mobile
VR/AR
gaming
Critical
control of
robotics
Drone
field
mainte-
nance
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 7
Digitalization revenues for ICT players in industries
Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little
Note; 1) Year 2026
Public safety
ManufacturingFinancial services
Healthcare
Public transport
Energy & utilities
+14%
+16%
+17%
+16%
+11%+10%
+11%
Retail
Automotive
Media &
entertainment
Agriculture
+15%
+20%
+21%
CAGR 16´-26´
713; 21%
602; 17%
511; 15%
437; 13%
295; 8%
276; 8%
232; 7%
213; 6%
140; 4%
38,1%
USDbn
1307
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 8
SMART
AGRICULTUREFLEET
MANAGEMENT
SMART
METER
LOGISTICS
TRACKING
TRAFFIC SAFETY
& CONTROL
INDUSTRIAL
APPLICATION &
CONTROL
REMOTE
TRAINING
REMOTE
MANUFACTURING REMOTE
SURGERY
SMARTPHONESHOME
NON-SIM
DEVICES
ENTERPRISE
VENUES
MOBILE/
WIRELESS/
FIXED
4K/8K UHD
BROADCASTING
VR/AR
5G is use case driven
LOW COST, LOW ENERGY
SMALL DATA VOLUMES
MASSIVE NUMBERS
ULTRA RELIABLE
VERY LOW LATENCY
VERY HIGH AVAILABILITY
Critical MTCMassive MTC
Enhanced mobile broadband
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 9
Technical expectations of 5G
Peak Data Rate
1 - 20 Gbps
User Experienced Data Rate
10 -100 Mbps
Spectral Efficiency
×1 - ×3
Mobility350 - 500
km/h
Latency 1 - 10 ms
Connection Density
10k - 1m
devices / km2
Network Energy Efficiency
×1 - ×100
Area Traffic Capacity
0.1 - 10
Mbps / m2
Availability99.999%
(of time)
Battery life 10 years*
Reliability99.999%
(of packets)
Position
accuracy10m - <1m
Security
Strong subscriber
authentication, user
privacy and network
security
*For low power IoT devices Source: ITU-R, NGMN, 3GPP
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 10
5G enabled digitalization revenues for ICT players
Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little
Note; 1) Year 2026
Public safety
Manufacturing
Energy & utilities
+122%
+126%
+126% +134%
+125%+115%
+128%
+134%
+113%
+135%
250; 19%
233; 18%
164; 13%
160; 12%
129; 10%
119; 9%
104; 8%
73; 6%
55; 4%
20; 1%
USDbn
CAGR 19´-26´
Healthcare
Public transport
Media &
entertainment
Automotive
Financial services
Retail Agriculture
3458
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 11
5G enabled digitalization revenues for ICT playersRevenues generated by new industry digitalization value-producing opportunities that are created or
enhanced by the introduction of 5G networks
5G enabled digitalization revenues for ICT players
1 5 18 49113
168216 250
1 6 2052
115
164
206233
1 311
31
72
108
140
164
1 414
36
81
116
144
160
0 28
23
54
82
109
129
0 28
22
51
77
101
119
0 26
17
42
65
86
104
0 2
7
17
38
54
66
73
0 1
3
9
21
33
45
55
0 0
1
4
8
13
17
20
5 28
97
259
595
879
1130
1307
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
+181%
+22%USD bn
• Agriculture
• Retail
• Automotive
• Media &Entertainment
• Public transport
• Healthcare
• Financial Services
• Manufacturing
• Public Safety
• Energy & Utilities
“Normal market
growth”
“Ramp up”
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 12
/ USE CASE #2 /
automotive
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 13
KEY
INDUSTRY
TRENDS
Autonomous driving
Connected services
Safety and traffic
efficiency services
Other
Total: 104
40
29
27
8
5G enabled revenue for ICT players
5G operator
addressable
Current service
revenues
+3%
Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little
2026, USDbn
5G operator addressable market
1.736 48
Car sharing
and changing
commuter habits
Electric mobility
with decreasing
battery costs and
a green agenda
Digital enterprise
and connected
supply chain
Autonomous
driving and a
connected traveler
with telematics
Use case categories
1 2 3 4
Automotive – industry opportunity
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 14
Business potential automotive
Operator addressable revenues per region
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
North America EuropéLatin America Middle East & AfricaNorth East Asia South East Asia Oceania & India
15
5
10
0
Operator addressable market per use case category
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Automotive - other
Autonomous driving
Safety and traffic
efficiency services
Connected services
Automotive - other
USDbn North America
Latin America
North East Asia
Europe
Middle East & Africa
South East Asia, Oceania & India
USDbn
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 15
› Predictive maintenance of vehicle
› Capturing sensor data for real-time traffic, weather, parking, and mapping services
On the road to 5G
› WiFi Hotspot
› On demand GPS map data
› Over-the-air software updates
Current
› Autonomous vehicle control
› Cooperative collision avoidance
› Vulnerable road user discovery
5G Experience (2021+)
Automotive use case evolution explained
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 16
KEY
CHALLENGES
/TRENDS
1) The global economy can save 5.6 trillion per year once autonomous cars become fully penetrated (2026), Morgan Stanley
Autonomous cars
Road congestion is
increasing creating
costs in terms of
time and pollution
Improved convenience
Improved safety
Reduced congestion
Global cost savings from
autonomous vehicles to society
POSITION ACCURACY
Role and key dimensions of 5G
1 2 3
High mitigation potential
in avoiding journeys and
modal shifts due to
behavioral change
4Significant number
of traffic accidents
occur
Stricter
emission
regulations
$5.6 TN1
RELIABILITYAVAILABILITY
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 17
Entry point for
managing company
and user accounts
+Access to relevant
Scania and third
party services
+Solving industry pain points
Powered by Ericsson Connected
Vehicle Marketplace Scania
ONE will greatly enhance the
user experience of Scania’s
connected service offer
LESSONS LEARNED | REQUIREMENTS
One framework for services
Quality of service
Complete solution
SCANIA ONE
Multi-channel
user
experience
+
“Scania One is the framework for seamlessly and
efficiently integrating both current and coming
services in a single environment. These services,
taken together, will significantly contribute towards
greater efficiency and thereby higher revenues for
transport companies.”
Christian Levin, Executive Vice President,
Head of Sales and Marketing, Scania
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 18
manufacturing/ USE CASE #3 /
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 19
KEY
INDUSTRY
TRENDS
Industrial control and automation
Planning and design systems
Field devices
Other
Total: 233
119
38
56
20
5G enabled revenue for ICT players
5G operator
addressable
Current service
revenues
+7%
Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little
2026, USDbn
5G operator addressable market
1.736 113
Increasing
volatility from
business cycles and
product life cycles
The smart factory is
advancing from developments
in the internet of things and
automation
Hyper competition
with no sustainable
competitive
advantages
Use case categories
1 2 3
manufacturing –industry opportunity
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 20
Business potential manufacturing
Operator addressable revenues per region
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
North America EuropéLatin America Middle East & AfricaNorth East Asia South East Asia Oceania & India
North America
Latin America
North East Asia
Europe
Middle East & Africa
South East Asia, Oceania & India
Operator addressable market per use case category
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Manufacturing - other
Planning and design
systems
Field Devices
Industrial control and
automation systems
Manufacturing - other
USDbn
40
10
20
0
USDbn
30
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 21
Manufacturing use case evolution explained
On the road to 5G
› Intra-/inter enterprise communication
› Connected goods
Current 5G Experience (2022+)
› Collaborative robots
› Distributed control system
› Remote quality inspection
› Remote control of robots
› Augmented reality support in training, maintenance, construction and repair
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 22
KEY
CHALLENGES
/TRENDS
Note: 1) Also includes AR, Big Data and Advanced machining applications
Critical control of production line robotics
Skill gap left by
the baby boomer
generation leaving
the workforce
High costs
of labor in
developed
countries
Aging workforce in
OECD countries with
lower ability to handle
physically heavy tasks
Lower cost
Improved safety
Higher quality
+15-20%Process and assembly OPEX
savings potential
Role and key dimensions of 5G
2 3 41
Components are
becoming more
complex with
larger variation
1
LATENCYPEAK DATA RATE
TRAFFIC CAPACITY
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 23
KEY
CHALLENGES
/TRENDS
1) Augmented reality; 2) S. Henderson and S. Feiner, ‘‘Exploring the benefits of augmented reality documentation for maintenance and repair,’’ IEEE Trans. Vis. Comput. Graphics
AR assisted factory maintenance
Production down-time
– causing reduced
utilization, lead-times
and bottle necks
Operational inefficiencies –
imperfect maintenance
planning, failure diagnostics
and training
Reduced oper. down-time
Reduced repair time spent
Less human-made errors
25%cost reduction
Role and key dimensions of 5G
2 31
Costly breakdowns
– extra components,
material, labor and
buffers
2
LATENCY PEAK DATA RATE
CONNECTION DENSITY
1
UP TO
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 24
Energy & utilities/ USE CASE #4 /
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 25
KEY
INDUSTRY
TRENDS
Smart grid
Smart energy management
Other
Total: 250
188
53
9
5G enabled revenue for ICT players
5G operator
addressable
Current service
revenues
+6%
Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little
2026, USDbn
5G operator addressable market
1.736 101
Structural
shifts with
increasingly
retiring assets
New
decentralized
business models
Electrification
and renewable
energy generation
Oil supply imbalance
and instability, fracking
advancements and
carbon constraints
Use case categories
1 2 3 4
Energy and utilities –industry opportunity
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 26
Business potential energy & utilities
Operator addressable revenues per region
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
North America EuropéLatin America Middle East & AfricaNorth East Asia South East Asia Oceania & India
30
10
20
0
North America
Latin America
North East Asia
Europe
Middle East & Africa
South East Asia, Oceania & India
Operator addressable market per use case category
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Smart grid
Energy and utilities - other
Smart energy managementUSDbn USDbn
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 27
Energy & utilities use case evolution explained
On the road to 5G
› Dynamic and bidirectional grid
› Smart metering
Current 5G Experience (2023+)
› Distributed energy resource management
› Distribution automation
› Control of edge-of-grid generation
› Virtual power plant
› Real time load balancing
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 28
KEY
CHALLENGES
/TRENDS
Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little, Kalorama Information
Drone field service and maintenance
Power companies
increasingly monitoring
transmission and
distribution grid
Assets are
often located
in remote
locations
Fines from
authorities for
power outages
Increased worker’s safety
Improved grid uptime
Reduced costs
+30%Cost reduction potential
compared to regular monitoring
Role and key dimensions of 5G
2 3 41
Increased share of renewables
means more producing units
over a larger area that often
is more remote
PEAK DATA RATE
POSITION ACCURACY
AVAILABILITY
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 29
Meter to cashUndisclosed customer
IoTAaS Smart metering solution
Integrated meter management
Customer portal
Enterprise cloud billing
Operative costsavings
Reduction in case to
resolution time
20%
60%
Reduction in cost to deploy
prepaid
50%
Idea to implementation
reduced to hours vs months
Online bill and actions
in real time vs 24 hr lag
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 30
Healthcare/ USE CASE #5 /
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 31
Healthcare use case evolution explained
› Telesurgery
› Augmented reality aiding medical treatment
On the road to 5G
› Remote patient monitoring
› Connected ambulance
› Electronic health records
Current
› Precision medicine
› Remote robotic surgery
› Ambulance drones
5G Experience (2022+)
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 32
KEY
CHALLENGES
/TRENDS
Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little, Kalorama Information
Remote examination and monitoring
Increased number
of chronic
diseases and need
for constant care
Greater
freedom of
choice for
patients
Increased
awareness of own
health and higher
demands on quality
Healthcare efficiency
Patient convenience
Improved patient safety
$31.4 bnAdvanced patient monitoring
market size (2015)
RELIABILITYAVAILABILITYSECURITY
Role and key dimensions of 5G
2 3 41
Medical staff shortages
as population ages
and baby boomers
retire
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 33
KEY
CHALLENGES
/TRENDS
Increasing
personalization
and comparability
of treatments
Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little, Kalorama Information
Remote robotic surgery
Scarcity of
surgeons –
especially in highly
specialized areas
Increasing
complexity
requiring new tools
and specialization
Increasing
demands – from
increased health
awareness
Improved outcomes
Patient convenience
Reduced cost
$20.8 bnEstimated surgical robot market
size (2024)
RELIABILITYAVAILABILITYSECURITY
Role and key dimensions of 5G
1 2 3 4
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 34
Better use of
senses: Sight,
hearing and touch
+ Improved efficiency:
Using the skills and
resources in an
efficient way
+Solving industry pain points
Ericsson’s contribution –
Providing the infrastructure and
research expertise to assist with
edge computing, latency
reduction and network slicing.
LESSONS LEARNED | REQUIREMENTS
Latency is critical
Quality of service
Complete solution
Kings college collaboration
The 5G Business Potential, second edition, executive summary | Commercial in confidence | © Ericsson AB 2017 | Page 35