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TRANSCRIPT
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Defined Risk StrategyDefine Risk, Improve Outcomes – Investing Redefined
For Advisor Use Only
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2For Advisor Use Only
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Challenges Facing the 60/40 Portfolio
Hedge Market Risk - Protect Irreplaceable Capital
• The Investor’s Dual Dilemma• 40% creating pressure on the 60%• Forecasted returns for equities and portfolio implications
• Addressing the shortcomings of MPT and asset allocation• Hedging to reduce tail risk and to smooth the ride • The Defined Risk Strategy – Distinct approach with over 20-year history
Unique Challenges for Investors
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3For Advisor Use Only
Challenges Facing the 60/40 Portfolio – Dual DilemmaI
State of Bond Markets Bond bull market appears
out of gas Traditional role of bonds is
in peril Yields low, but appear set
to rise Quantitative easing –
elephant in the room Massive flows into spread
products
State of Equity Markets U.S. & foreign markets near
all time highs Valuations priced for
perfections 2nd-longest bull market in
history Uncertainty regarding Trump Market expectations are low
Investors’ Dual Dilemma:
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
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To achieve an 8% average return,
solve for X…
X = 12%
40% Bonds 2% return
4For Advisor Use Only Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR, wealthcommonsense.com, Swan Global Investments, LLC
The 40% is Creating Pressure on the 60%
Challenges Facing the 60/40 Portfolio – Dual DilemmaI
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Forecasted Returns Over Next 5 to 10 Years
Source Organization Equities BondsJohn Bogle (1) Vanguard 4% 3%BlackRock (2) BlackRock 3.6% 1.8%Rob Arnott (3) Research Affiliates 0.4% 2.8%
JP Morgan (4) JP Morgan 5.5% 2.5%
Morningstar Investment Management (5) Morningstar 1.8% 2.5%
“Long-Term Asset Class Forecasts” (6) State Street Global Advisors 5.8% 2.3% – 2.9%
“Ten Year Capital Market Assumptions” (7)BNY Mellon Investment Management
6.3% 2.6%
What Do Experts Say?
5
For Advisor Use Only Source: Information pulled from numerous sources:1. October 2017. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=842900 Based on U.S. large cap equities and 50% U.S. 10-year Treasury and 50% U.S.
corporate bond index.2. November 2017. https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-us/insights/portfolio-design/capital-market-assumptions Based on U.S. large cap equities and
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. 3. December 2018. https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/645-cape-fear-why-cape-naysayers-are-wrong.html Based on U.S. large cap
equities and Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. RA states their returns forecast in real terms. 4. September 2017. https://am.jpmorgan.com/gi/getdoc/1383498280832 Based on U.S. large cap equities and U.S. 30-year bond.5. September 2017. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=842900 Based on U.S. large cap equities and U.S. bonds.6. June 2017. https://www.ssga.com/market-commentary/forecasts/2017/Q3/long-term-asset-class-forecasts-june-30-2017.pdf Based on U.S. large cap equities and
U.S. bonds (range present includes the forecast for 10+ years for U.S government bonds at 2.3%, U.S. TIPS at 2.4%, to U.S. Investment-Grade bonds at 2.9%).7. 2017. http://www.bnymellonam.jp/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2_BNY-Mellon-10yr-CapMkt-2017-WP.pdf Based on U.S. large cap equities and U.S. Bond
Aggregate.
Challenges Facing the 60/40 Portfolio – Muted Returns ForecastedI
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=842900https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-us/insights/portfolio-design/capital-market-assumptionshttps://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/645-cape-fear-why-cape-naysayers-are-wrong.htmlhttps://am.jpmorgan.com/gi/getdoc/1383498280832http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=842900https://www.ssga.com/market-commentary/forecasts/2017/Q3/long-term-asset-class-forecasts-june-30-2017.pdfhttp://www.bnymellonam.jp/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2_BNY-Mellon-10yr-CapMkt-2017-WP.pdf
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“Because Traditional Asset Allocation is Not Enough.”- Randy Swan
1) Russell 3000 1.00 0.62 0.61 0.52 0.41 -0.08
2) MSCI EAFE Index 0.62 1.00 0.58 0.35 0.35 0.01
3) MSCI Emerging Markets 0.61 0.58 1.00 0.43 0.30 0.04
4) Barclays U.S. Corp High Yield 0.52 0.35 0.43 1.00 0.44 -0.11
5) FTSE Nareit ALL REITs 0.41 0.25 0.30 0.44 1.00 -0.10
6) S&P GSCI -0.08 0.01 0.04 -0.11 -0.10 1.00
Long-Term Correlation Matrix: January 1988 – July 20071 32 4 5 6
Crisis Correlation Matrix: August 2007 – February 2009
1) Russell 3000 1.00 0.92 0.83 0.75 0.86 0.59
2) MSCI EAFE Index 0.92 1.00 0.94 0.73 0.74 0.63
3) MSCI Emerging Markets 0.83 0.94 1.00 0.75 0.62 0.69
4) Barclays U.S. Corp High Yield 0.75 0.73 0.75 1.00 0.70 0.50
5) FTSE Nareit ALL REITs 0.86 0.74 0.62 0.70 1.00 0.41
6) S&P GSCI 0.59 0.63 0.69 0.50 0.41 1.00
1 32 4 5 6
0.49 or Less
0.50 to 0.69
0.70 to 0.79
0.80 to 0.89
0.90 or More
6For Advisor Use Only Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR, Swan Global Investments, LLC
Hedge Market Risk / Protect Wealth – Shortcomings of MPTII
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7For Advisor Use Only Source: Swan Global Investments
By limiting losses during market downtowns, less upside capture is required to outperform ‘buy and hold’.
Gains Needed to Recover from Losses
Gain
Loss
Gain Percent
Loss Percent
11% 25% 43%67%
100%150%
233%
400%
900%
- - - - - - - - --10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90%
II Hedge Market Risk / Protect Wealth – Avoid Big Losses
The Math Behind Investment Losses
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Narrowing the Distribution of ReturnsParametric Monthly Return Distribution Since July 1997
8For Advisor Use Only Source: Morningstar and Swan Global Investments
-22%
-21%
-20%
-19%
-19%
-18%
-17%
-16%
-16%
-15%
-14%
-14%
-13%
-12%
-11%
-11%
-10% -9
%-8
%-8
%-7
%-6
%-5
%-5
%-4
%-3
%-2
%-2
%-1
% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10%
10%
11%
12%
13%
13%
14%
15%
16%
16%
17%
18%
19%
19%
20%
21%
21%
22%
23%
S&P 500 DRS Select CompositeObjective Distribution
II Hedge Market Risk / Protect Wealth – Reduce Tail Risk
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$1,809
$2,051
13.37%
Return Comparison
$1,500
Starting Value
Hedge Market Risk / Protect Wealth – Smoothing the RideII
Limiting Downside & Upside Capture
For Advisor Use Only Source: Crestmont Research, 2018, https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Half-Half.pdf 9
NOTE – Returns based on S&P 500 Price Index, not the Total Return index.
Ending Values
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10For Advisor Use Only Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR and Swan Global Investments. All S&P 500 data based on historical performance of the S&PTotal Return Index. All historical performance of the Swan DRS Select Composite is net of fees. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The graphs above show an investment of $100,000 over eleven successive, 10-year investment periods. The first period is 1/1998 to 12/2007; the last period is 1/2008 to 12/2017.
Each period contains at least one bull market and one bear market.
Consistency with Reduced Volatility – Timing Not Required
Hedge Market Risk / Protect Wealth – Smoothing the RideII
The Swan DRS Select Composite produced more consistent outcomes over the same 10-year periods.
The S&P 500 Index produced very different outcomes for the successive 10-year periods.
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11For Advisor Use Only
“By actively seeking to not lose big,
we believe that investors will be
better off in the long run.”- Randy Swan, CEO and Lead Portfolio Manager
Defined Risk Strategy – Investment Philosophy
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Defined Risk Strategy – Investment Philosophy
We believe… Therefore, we…
It is difficult to consistently and successfully execute market-timing strategies
It is difficult to select stocks that will consistently outperform the market
The key to long-term wealth creation is to minimize downside risk
Remain invested at all times
Invest in index-based ETFs
Maintain an actively managed systematic put hedge to seek protection from large market drawdowns
For Advisor Use Only
Pursuing investment returns in a variety of market conditions is critical to long-term success
It is important to control risk in every phase of a market cycle
Seek to generate market-neutral income by buying and selling puts and calls
Follow a rules-based approach to remove emotions from process.
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Defined Risk Strategy - Investment Process
2 Create Hedge
Buy puts on the underlying equity
At or Near-the-Money
Long-term – generally one to two years, initially
3 Harvest Option Premium
Seek to sell shorter-term options
Market-neutral, non-directional trading strategies
1 Establish Equities
Purchase exposure to asset class, such as S&P 500 Russell 2000 EAFE EM
Invested at all times
Transparent Disciplined Repeatable
The Process is
112
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For Advisor Use Only
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DRS Investment Process – Step 1: Always Invested
Always Invested – No predictive or market timing methods
1 Establish Equities
14For Advisor Use Only Source: Swan Global Investments and Morningstar; the S&P 500 Index, the Russell 200 Index, the MSCI EAFE Index and the MSCIEmerging Markets Index are unmanaged indexes, and cannot be invested into directly.
U.S. Large Cap Equities
U.S. Small Cap Equities
Foreign Developed Equities
Invest in SPX via SDPR S&P 500 ETFs (equally weighted) SMA qualified accounts use SPY instead of sector ETFs
Invest in iShares Russell 2000 ETFs or basket of stocks that closely represent the Russell 2000 Index
Invest in iShares MSCI EAFE ETFs or basket of stocks that closely represent the MSCI EAFE Index
Emerging Markets Equities Invest in iShares MSCI EM ETFs or basket of stocks that closely represent the MSCI Emerging Markets Index
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DRS Investment Process – Step 2: Always Hedged
Always Hedged
2 Create Hedge to Enhance Risk/Return Profile
Longer-term puts are used for their lower average daily cost and stability
Equities stay hedged at all times
Risk Profile of Equity + Hedge
Risk Profile of Underlying Equity
Underlying Equity Return ProfileHedged Equity Return Profile
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For Advisor Use Only Source: Swan Global Investments and Morningstar; the S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index, and cannot be invested intodirectly. Swan DRS returns are from the Select Composite, net of all fees. NOTE – this chart is for illustration purposes, not a guarantee of futureperformance. The charts and graphs contained herein should not serve as the sole determining factor for making investment decisions.
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DRS Investment Process – Step 2: Always Hedged
2 Advantages of Rolling the Hedge (LEAP)
By rolling the hedge annually:
The portfolio is always hedged;
The DRS is not under duress to seek protection;
The DRS is not exposed to the steeper drop off in value of put option.
16For Advisor Use Only Note: This graphic is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the concept of resetting the hedge and does not represent aspecific trade.
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DRS Investment Process – Step 3: Always Seeking to Harvest Option Premium
Always seeking returns in a variety of market conditions
3 Harvest Option Premium
Put Option Call Option
Profit or Loss
$
$
0
-$
-$
Systematically seek option premium income to help subsidize the cost of the hedge
Market neutral, rules-based options strategy
Predetermined adjustment and exit triggers
Potential Profit Zone
17For Advisor Use Only
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DRS Investment Process – Step 3: Seek to Harvest Option Premium
3 Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility
18For Advisor Use Only Source: Bloomberg and SG Financial Engineering, from 1/2/1990 to 12/29/2017
-140%
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16
Positive Spread Negative Spread Implied Volatility Realized Volatility
Implied vs. Realized Volatility - Jan 2, 1990 – Dec 29, 2017
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Seeking Improved Risk/Return
Targeted Band of Returns for the Defined Risk Strategy
Represents targeted range of returns
Underlying Equity Return Profile Option Premium Trades Create Targeted Return BandHedged Equity Return Profile
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For Advisor Use Only Source: Swan Global Investments and Morningstar; the S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index, and cannot be invested intodirectly. Swan DRS returns are from the Select Composite, net of all fees. NOTE – this chart is for illustration purposes, not a guarantee of futureperformance. The charts and graphs contained herein should not serve as the sole determining factor for making investment decisions.
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Process Put to the Test
S&P 500 Annual Total Return Option Premium Trades Create Targeted Return BandActual DRS Returns per Year Since Inception Hedged Equity Return Profile
Targeted Return vs. Actual Return
Swan DRS Select Composite - S&P 500
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For Advisor Use Only Source: Swan Global Investments and Morningstar; the S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index, and cannot be invested intodirectly. DRS returns are from the Select Composite, net of all fees. NOTE – this chart is for illustration purposes, not a guarantee of future performance.The charts and graphs contained herein should not serve as the sole determining factor for making investment decisions.
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Process Put to the Test – Across Global Equities
Annual Returns of Underlying AssetOption Premium Trades Create Targeted Return BandAnnual Returns of Defined Risk U.S. Small Cap Composite vs. U.S. Small Cap (Russell 2000)
Hedged Equity Return Profile
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Targeted Return vs. Actual Return
Swan DRS - Applied to Multiple Asset Classes
Annual Returns of Defined Risk Emerging Markets Composite vs Emerging Markets (MSCI EM)Annual Returns of Defined Risk Foreign Developed Composite vs Foreign Developed (MSCI EAFE)
For Advisor Use Only Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR and Swan Global Investments; Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot be invested into directly.Past performance is no guarantee of future results. NOTE – this chart is for illustration purposes, not a guarantee of future performance. The chartsand graphs contained herein should not serve as the sole determining factor for making investment decisions. The results above refer to the DRS U.S.Small Cap Composite, the DRS Foreign Developed Composite, and the DRS Emerging Markets Composite respectively, and include a 1% fee, from theirinception through 6/30/2018. Structures mentioned may not be available within your Broker/Dealer. See disclosures at the end of this presentation formore information about benchmarks and indexes.
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Compelling Risk Statistics
Risk / Return Metrics
Swan DRS Select Composite – S&P 500
Retu
rn
Swan DRS – U.S. Large Cap*
S&P 500 Index
60% S&P 500 Index /40% Barclays U.S. Aggregate
Return (%)
Std Dev (%)
Beta vs. Market
Cash-Adj Alpha vs
Market (%)
R-Squared vs Market
(%)
Sharpe Ratio
Max Drawdown (monthly)
Swan DRS Select Composite 8.32 9.37 0.30 6.13 22.39 0.67 -18.56%
S&P 500 Index 7.49 14.82 1.00 0.00 100.00 0.37 -50.95%
60% S&P 500 / 40% Barclays US Agg 6.78 8.91 0.59 2.04 97.70 0.53 -32.54%
Standard Deviation
22
For Advisor Use Only. Source: Swan Global Investments and Morningstar; the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and the S&P 500 Index areunmanaged indices, and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.* Swan DRS results are from the Select Composite, net of fees, as of 6/30/2018. Structures mentioned may not be available within your Broker/Dealer.
July 1997 – June 2018 (Single Computation)
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Risk / Return Metrics
Swan DRS - Applied to Multiple Asset Classes
23
For Advisor Use Only. Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR and Swan Global Investments; the S&P 500 Index, the Russell 2000 Index, the MSCI EAFE Index andthe MSCI Emerging Markets Index are unmanaged indexes, and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Theresults above refer to the DRS U.S. Small Cap Composite, the DRS Foreign Developed Composite, and the DRS Emerging Markets Compositerespectively, and include a 1% fee, from their inception through 6/30/2018. Structures mentioned may not be available within your Broker/Dealer.
Compelling Risk Statistics
Return (%) Std Dev (%) Beta vs. MarketSharpe Ratio
Swan DRS – U.S. Small Cap(1/1/2016 – 6/30/2018)
9.46 6.60 0.48 1.30
Russell 2000 Index(1/1/2016 – 6/30/2018)
17.52 12.90 1.00 1.28
Swan DRS – Foreign Developed(1/1/2016 – 6/30/2018)
3.76 5.29 0.44 0.56
MSCI EAFE Index(1/1/2016 – 6/30/2018)
9.16 10.38 1.00 0.80
Swan DRS – Emerging Markets(1/1/2015 – 6/30/2018)
1.88 8.30 0.48 0.16
MSCI EM Index(1/1/2015 – 6/30/2018)
6.03 15.52 1.00 0.35
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Swan DRS Select Composite vs. S&P 500 Index vs. 60/40
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For Advisor Use Only Source: Swan Global Investments and Morningstar; the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and the S&P 500 Index areunmanaged indices, and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. DRS results are from the Swan DefinedRisk Select Composite, net of fees, as of 6/30/2018. Structures mentioned may not be available within your Broker/Dealer.
Proven Ability to Minimize Losses in Bear Markets
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Swan DRS
S&P 500
60/40
40%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
19.17% 11.55% 12.26% 3.17% 7.46% 12.22% -0.65% 12.28% 7.47% 18.14% 8.81% -4.50% 25.00% 8.10% -5.38% 9.01% 14.34% 6.52% -2.93% 9.59% 10.83% -1.98%
10.58% 28.58% 21.04% -9.10% -11.89% -22.10% 28.68% 10.88% 4.91% 15.79% 5.49% -37.00% 26.46% 15.06% 2.11% 16.00% 32.39% 13.69% 1.38% 11.96% 21.83% 2.65%
9.01% 20.98% 12.00% -0.99% -3.71% -9.82% 18.48% 8.30% 4.00% 11.12% 6.22% -22.06% 18.40% 12.13% 4.69% 11.31% 17.56% 10.62% 1.28% 8.31% 14.21% 1.00%
Process Put to the Test – Hedge Market Risk / Protect Wealth
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Rolling Returns are Revealing
Rolling Period S&P 500: July 97-Dec 2017 Swan DRS: July 97-Dec 2017 DRS vs S&P 500
Current Return
Average Rolling Return
Worst Rolling Return
Best Rolling Return
Current Return
Average Rolling Return
Worst Rolling Return
Best Rolling Return
% of Occurrences DRS Outperformed
Rolling 1 Year 21.84% 8.27% -43.32% 53.62% 10.83% 8.31% -6.87% 38.25% 37.87%
Rolling 2 Year 16.79% 6.92% -26.08% 37.22% 10.21% 7.92% -0.80% 23.95% 42.15%
Rolling 3 Year 11.41% 6.11% -16.09% 25.56% 5.64% 7.73% 1.31% 19.18% 50.24%
Rolling 4 Year 11.98% 5.78% -9.76% 22.42% 5.86% 7.75% 3.18% 12.90% 60.80%
Rolling 5 Year 15.79% 5.69% -6.63% 23.00% 7.51% 7.83% 3.50% 12.89% 64.71%
Rolling 6 Year 15.83% 5.73% -1.13% 21.72% 7.75% 7.84% 4.51% 11.14% 72.57%
Rolling 7 Year 13.76% 5.61% -3.85% 17.27% 5.77% 7.96% 5.29% 10.81% 77.30%
Rolling 10 Year 8.50% 4.77% -3.43% 8.53% 6.69% 8.04% 6.24% 10.67% 79.53%
Rolling 15 Year 9.92% 5.55% 3.76% 10.04% 7.47% 7.82% 6.76% 9.38% 88.06%
Since Inception: July 97-Dec 2017 S&P 500 Index Swan DRS
Annualized Return 7.54% 8.64%
25
For Advisor Use Only Source: Swan Global Investments and Zephyr StyleADVISOR. Data based on historic returns of the S&P 500 Total Return Indexand Swan DRS Select Composite net of fees, from 7/1997 to 12/31/2017, and assume no portfolio withdrawals. Results in the table are the best, worst,and average annualized returns, based on month-end returns, for every rolling period listed within the overall time frame of July 1st, 1997 toDecember 31st, 2017. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future results and there can be no assurance, and investors should not assume, thatfuture performance will be comparable to past performance.
Process Put to the Test – Hedge Market Risk / Consistency of Returns
S&P 500 Index vs. Swan DRS Select Composite - Rolling Annualized Returns Since InceptionBased on Month-End Results
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Defined Risk Strategy - Implementation
Where Does the Defined Risk Strategy fit?
A core equity complement/supplement
Swan DRS Select Composite outperformed the
S&P 500 Index in 79.53% of rolling 10 year periods*
A fixed income complementSwan DRS Select Composite never lost money in any
3 year period, worst 2 year period loss was -0.80%*
Absolute return/alternativeResearch suggests Swan Defined Risk Strategy may
shift the efficient frontier**
All data above refers to Swan Defined Risk Strategy Select Composite and performance net of fees, since inception in July 1997.
26
For Advisor Use Only Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR and Swan Global Investments. All data based on historical performance of the S&P Total Return Index and the Swan DRS Select Composite net of fees, as of 12/31/2017. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future results.* See slide 25 for research summary. ** See slide 35 for research summary.
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Offering a unique combination of advantages in the marketplace.
27For Advisor Use Only
Defined Risk Strategy – Distinguishing Characteristics
Always Invested, Always Hedged
Distinct, innovative approach to directly address market risk
Demonstrated ability to minimize losses consistently in bear markets
Time-tested, non-directional options income trading strategies
Transparent, disciplined, repeatable investment process
A full portfolio solution not dependent on fixed income or market timing
Enviable, long-term track record, both on an absolute and risk-adjusted return basis
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Addendum
28For Advisor Use Only
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• Founded in 1997 by Randy Swan
• An SEC-registered investment adviser
• Manages over $4.76 billion in assets as of 6/30/18
29
Swan is an asset management firm based in Durango, CO.
Swan Global Investments at a Glance
AUM Overview
For Advisor Use Only. Structures mentioned may not be available within your Broker/Dealer.
• An actively managed, hedged-equity, rules-based process
• Seeks consistent returns over full market cycles
• Designed to hedge against large stock market declines
• Mutual Funds
• Separately Managed Accounts
• Overlay: Customize existing equity portfolio with DRS
• Collective Investment Trusts (CITs) for qualified retirement plans
• LP: Multi-Strategy Fund
Swan developed the Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), inception 7/1/97
Defined Risk Strategy (DRS) is available in the following structures:
Current Structures $ AUM in Millions (as of 6/30/18)
Mutual Funds 3,094
SMA 1,339
Custom Overlay 61
CIT 266
Total AUM $4,76
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Prior to Swan:- Flight-test engineer, developing computer
aided design software at Boeing
- Led software development as Dir. of Operations and part owner of Object Publishing Software
Rob Swan
Founder, CEO, Lead Portfolio Manager
Developed the Defined Risk Strategy (DRS)
Oversees and manages the DRS and its implementation across numerous asset classes
Randy SwanPrior to Swan:- Senior manager for KPMG’s Financial
Services Group, primarily working with insurance companies and risk managers
- Developed the DRS to solve the problem of portfolio insurance in market drawdowns
COO & Portfolio Manager
Manages day-to-day operations of the DRS
Oversees investment management, trading, and the development and maintenance of proprietary technology
Portfolio Managers
Swan Investment Management Team
Chris Hausman, CMT®
Portfolio Manager, Chief Risk Officer, Market Technician
Micah Wakefield, CAIA® Marc Odo, CFA®, CAIA®, CIPM®, CFP®
Client Portfolio ManagerPortfolio Manager, Director of Research & Product Development
30For Advisor Use Only
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Swan Defined Risk Strategy Select Composite Net of Fees
31
For Advisor Use Only. Source: Swan Global Investments and Morningstar; the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and the S&P 500 Index areunmanaged indices, and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Swan DRS results are from the SelectComposite, net of fees, as of 6/30/2018. Structures mentioned may not be available within your Broker/Dealer.
Growth of $100,00 – July 1, 1997 to June 30, 2018
Net Annualized Performance (June 30, 2018)
Swan DRS Select Composite S&P 500 Index 60% S&P 500 Index / 40% Barclays US Agg
YTD -1.98% 2.65% 1.00%3 Year 4.88% 11.93% 7.88%5 Year 6.00% 13.42% 8.97%10 Year 6.40% 10.17% 7.84%Inception (7/97) 8.32% 7.49% 6.78%
$455,551
$536,073
$396,808
Proven Long-Term Track Record Over Full-Market Cycles
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32For Advisor Use Only Source: Swan Global Investments and Morningstar; the S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index, and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. DRS results are from the Select Composite, net of all fees, from 7/1/1997 to 12/31/2017.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-8%
to -6
%
-6%
to -4
%
-4%
to -2
%
-2%
to 0
%
0% to
2%
2% to
4%
4% to
6%
6% to
8%
8% to
10%
10%
to 1
2%
12%
to 1
4%
14%
to 1
6%
16%
to 1
8%
18%
to 2
0%
20%
to 2
2%
22%
to 2
4%
Process Put to the Test – Hedge Market Risk / Reduce Tail Risk
Swan DRS Select Composite – Rolling Distribution of 5-Year Returns
Swan DRS Select Composite (Net of Fees)
S&P 500 Index
-
Rolling 10-YearRolling 5-Year
Rolling 1-Year Swan DRS Select Composite (Net of Fees)S&P 500
Rolling 3-Year
33For Advisor Only Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR and Swan Global Investments. All data based on historical performance of the S&P Total Return Index and the Swan DRS Select Composite net of fees, as of 12/31/2017. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future results.
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jun-
98M
ar-9
9De
c-99
Sep-
00Ju
n-01
Mar
-02
Dec-
02Se
p-03
Jun-
04M
ar-0
5De
c-05
Sep-
06Ju
n-07
Mar
-08
Dec-
08Se
p-09
Jun-
10M
ar-1
1De
c-11
Sep-
12Ju
n-13
Mar
-14
Dec-
14Se
p-15
Jun-
16M
ar-1
7De
c-17
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jun-
00M
ar-0
1De
c-01
Sep-
02Ju
n-03
Mar
-04
Dec-
04Se
p-05
Jun-
06M
ar-0
7De
c-07
Sep-
08Ju
n-09
Mar
-10
Dec-
10Se
p-11
Jun-
12M
ar-1
3De
c-13
Sep-
14Ju
n-15
Mar
-16
Dec-
16Se
p-17
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jun-
07N
ov-0
7Ap
r-08
Sep-
08Fe
b-09
Jul-0
9De
c-09
May
-10
Oct
-10
Mar
-11
Aug-
11Ja
n-12
Jun-
12N
ov-1
2Ap
r-13
Sep-
13Fe
b-14
Jul-1
4De
c-14
May
-15
Oct
-15
Mar
-16
Aug-
16Ja
n-17
Jun-
17N
ov-1
7
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jun-
02
Mar
-03
Dec-
03
Sep-
04
Jun-
05
Mar
-06
Dec-
06
Sep-
07
Jun-
08
Mar
-09
Dec-
09
Sep-
10
Jun-
11
Mar
-12
Dec-
12
Sep-
13
Jun-
14
Mar
-15
Dec-
15
Sep-
16
Jun-
17
Rolling Returns are Revealing (continued)
Swan DRS Select Composite (Net of Fees)S&P 500
Swan DRS Select Composite (Net of Fees)S&P 500
Swan DRS Select Composite (Net of Fees)S&P 500
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34For Advisor Use Only Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR and Swan Global Investments
Up/Down CaptureSince Inception of Swan DRS Select Composite, July 1, 1997 – June 30, 2018
Swan DRS – Risk Management vs. Return Management
Refers to Swan Defined Risk Strategy Select Composite and performance net of fees, since inception in July 1997. All Swan products utilize the Defined Risk Strategy ("DRS"), but may vary by asset class, regulatory offering type, etc. Accordingly, all Swan DRS product offerings will have different performance results due to offering differences and comparing results among the Swan products and composites may be of limited use.
Up Capture - Monthly Up Capture Quarterly Up Capture - Yearly Down Capture -MonthlyDown Capture -
Quarterly Down Capture - Yearly
DRS Select Composite 41.90% 52.80% 56% -22% -15.50% -21.20%S&P 500 100% 100% 100% -100% -100% -100%
-100.00%
-80.00%
-60.00%
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
-
Comparing Portfolios Over Time
For Advisor Use Only Sources: Zephyr StyleADVISOR, Morningstar, Mebane Faber, and Swan Global Investments. * Swan DRS results are from the Select Composite, net of fees, as of 12/31/2017.
Portfolio Statistics: July 1, 1997 - December 31, 2017
Annualized Returns
Cumulative Return
Population Standard Deviation
Sharpe Ratio
Worst Period Return
Maximum Drawdown
Alpha vs. Market
Beta vs. Market
Traditional 60% US Equities, 40% US Bonds 7.95% 380.10% 8.79% 0.67 -11.11% -28.70% 3.46% 0.55
60% US Equities, 20% US Bonds, 20% Alts 7.65% 353.47% 9.77% 0.57 -11.56% -33.69% 2.51% 0.64
Permanent Portfolio 6.28% 248.41% 6.03% 0.70 -8.63% -12.78% 4.53% 0.22
Ivy Portfolio 6.65% 274.14% 11.04% 0.42 -19.87% -46.28% 2.14% 0.59
Risk Parity 6.49% 262.91% 5.43% 0.82 -9.06% -15.11% 5.04% 0.18
Swensen 7.29% 322.91% 10.08% 0.52 -16.03% -37.61% 2.37% 0.62
El Erian 6.77% 283.14% 11.65% 0.40 -16.99% -42.04% 1.48% 0.69
Arnott 7.34% 327.39% 8.28% 0.64 -16.31% -29.40% 4.00% 0.42
Tobias 6.77% 283.01% 10.66% 0.44 -15.67% -38.54% 1.60% 0.66
Bernstein "Smart Money" 6.80% 285.06% 9.28% 0.51 -13.02% -34.92% 2.16% 0.58
Ferri "Core Four" 7.44% 335.58% 11.50% 0.47 -18.14% -44.92% 2.19% 0.68
Armstrong "Ideal Index" 6.65% 274.27% 10.60% 0.43 -14.42% -39.07% 1.53% 0.65
Dalio "All Seasons" 7.39% 330.93% 6.65% 0.80 -9.67% -14.42% 5.65% 0.22
60% US Equities, 20% Bonds, 20% Swan DRS Select Composite* 8.08% 391.65% 9.72% 0.62 -11.91% -30.88% 3.01% 0.63
Swan Defined Risk Strategy Select Composite* 8.64% 446.89% 9.40% 0.70 -16.15% -18.56% 6.44% 0.30
S&P 500 7.54% 343.80% 14.90% 0.37 -16.79% -50.95% 0.00% 1.00
35
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The Swan Defined Risk Strategy Select Composite demonstrates the performance of non-qualified assets managed by Swan Global Investments, LLC since inception. Itincludes discretionary individual accounts whose account holders seek the upside potential of owning stock, and the desire to eliminate most of the risk associated withowning stock. The Composite relies on LEAPS and other options to manage this risk. Individual accounts own S&P 500 exchange traded funds and LEAPS associated withthe exchange traded funds as well as multiple other option spreads that represent other indices that are widely traded. The Defined Risk Strategy was designed to protectinvestors from substantial market declines, provide income in flat or choppy markets, and to benefit from market appreciation. Stock and options are the primarycomponents of the strategy.
The benchmarks used for the DRS Select Composite are the S&P 500 Index, which consists of approximately 500 large cap stocks, and a 60/40 blended composite,weighted 60% in the aforementioned S&P 500 Index and 40% in the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. The 60/40 is rebalanced monthly. The Barclays US AggregateBond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includesTreasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency). The S&P 500Index is often used as a proxy for the overall U.S. equity market. Indexes and other benchmarks used herein are generally unmanaged and have no fees or expenses. Aninvestment cannot be made directly in an index or some of these benchmarks. Swan’s investments may consist of securities which vary significantly from those in thebenchmark indexes listed above and performance calculation methods may not be entirely comparable. Accordingly, comparing results shown to those of such indexesand benchmarks may be of limited use.
Disclosures
36For Advisor Use Only
Swan Defined Risk Strategy Select CompositeS&P 500 - Primary
Benchmark
60% S&P 500 / 40% Barclays Aggregate -
Secondary Benchmark
YearNet-of-Fee
ReturnComposite Dispersion
Composite Assets (No. of Accounts /
AUM in Millions)
Firm Assets in Millions
3-Yr Annualized Standard Deviation
Return
3-Yr Annualized Standard Deviation
Return
3-Yr Annualized Standard Deviation
1997 19.17% - 1 / 0.22 0.20 - 10.58% - 9.01% -1998 11.55% - 1 / 0.32 0.31 - 28.58% - 20.98% -1999 12.26% - 1 / 0.72 0.73 - 21.04% - 12.00% -2000 3.17% - 1 / 0.90 0.93 - -9.10% - -0.99% -2001 7.46% - 3 / 1.66 1.59 7.23% -11.89% 17.99% -3.71% 9.99%2002 12.22% - 3 / 1.97 1.92 10.20% -22.10% 18.66% -9.82% 10.77%2003 -0.65% 5.68% 6 / 3.74 3.74 10.11% 28.68% 17.85% 18.48% 10.26%2004 12.28% 5.80% 7 / 4.45 4.66 9.93% 10.88% 16.82% 8.30% 8.49%2005 7.47% 2.66% 7 / 4.76 4.98 6.20% 4.91% 16.01% 4.00% 5.61%2006 18.14% 3.71% 9 / 7.22 7.76 4.68% 15.79% 15.26% 11.12% 4.33%2007 8.81% 3.79% 10 / 8.82 9.40 6.11% 5.49% 14.80% 6.22% 4.56%2008 -4.50% 5.00% 12 / 12.15 15.65 9.55% -37.00% 15.88% -22.06% 9.48%2009 25.00% 11.69% 50 / 47.74 55.79 11.14% 26.46% 16.48% 18.40% 12.40%2010 8.10% 2.13% 71 / 86.09 97.90 10.96% 15.06% 16.65% 12.13% 13.56%2011 -5.38% 3.16% 97 / 46.89 59.44 9.74% 2.11% 16.56% 4.69% 11.28%2012 9.01% 1.73% 276 / 97.52 400.19 7.65% 16.00% 16.24% 11.31% 8.64%2013 14.34% 1.38% 286 / 230.84 1,052.99 6.84% 32.39% 15.94% 17.56% 7.00%2014 6.52% 0.47% 372 / 315.14 1,810.04 4.83% 13.69% 15.60% 10.62% 5.48%2015 -2.93% 0.46% 402 / 305.55 2,446.11 5.88% 1.38% 15.47% 1.28% 6.37%2016 9.59% 0.58% 566 / 379.28 3,620.08 5.46% 11.96% 15.24% 8.31% 6.33%2017 10.83% 0.26% 714 / 552.64 4,975.33 5.01% 21.83% 14.90% 14.21% 5.85%
Swan Global Investments, LLC. is a SEC registered Investment Advisor thatspecializes in managing money using the proprietary Defined Risk Strategy (DRS).Please note that registration of the Advisor does not imply a certain level of skill ortraining. Further information may be obtained by contacting the company directlyat 970-382-8901 or www.swanglobalinvestments.com. Swan Global Investments,LLC, Swan Global Management, LLC, and Swan Capital Management, LLC, and SwanWealth Advisors, LLC are affiliated entities. Sources: Swan Global Investments,Zephyr StyleADVISOR, and Morningstar; all information is provided “as is” withoutwarranty of any kind. Swan assumes no responsibility for typographical errors,inaccuracies or other errors which may occur.
This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute anyinvestment advice or tax advice. All Swan products utilize the Defined Risk Strategy("DRS"), but may vary by asset class, regulatory offering type, etc. Accordingly, allSwan DRS product offerings will have different performance results due to offeringdifferences and comparing results among the Swan products and composites maybe of limited use. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategieswill affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it willmatch or outperform any particular benchmark.
The Swan Defined Risk Strategy or DRS as used in this document refer to the Swan DRS Select Composite.
http://www.swanglobalinvestments.com/Sheet1
Swan Defined Risk Strategy Select CompositeS&P 500 - Primary Benchmark60% S&P 500 / 40% Barclays Aggregate - Secondary Benchmark
YearNet-of-Fee ReturnComposite DispersionComposite Assets (No. of Accounts / AUM in Millions)Firm Assets in Millions3-Yr Annualized Standard DeviationReturn3-Yr Annualized Standard DeviationReturn3-Yr Annualized Standard Deviation
199719.17%-1 / 0.220.20-10.58%-9.01%-
199811.55%-1 / 0.320.31-28.58%-20.98%-
199912.26%-1 / 0.720.73-21.04%-12.00%-
20003.17%-1 / 0.900.93--9.10%--0.99%-
20017.46%-3 / 1.661.597.23%-11.89%17.99%-3.71%9.99%
200212.22%-3 / 1.971.9210.20%-22.10%18.66%-9.82%10.77%
2003-0.65%5.68%6 / 3.743.7410.11%28.68%17.85%18.48%10.26%
200412.28%5.80%7 / 4.454.669.93%10.88%16.82%8.30%8.49%
20057.47%2.66%7 / 4.764.986.20%4.91%16.01%4.00%5.61%
200618.14%3.71%9 / 7.227.764.68%15.79%15.26%11.12%4.33%
20078.81%3.79%10 / 8.829.406.11%5.49%14.80%6.22%4.56%
2008-4.50%5.00%12 / 12.1515.659.55%-37.00%15.88%-22.06%9.48%
200925.00%11.69%50 / 47.7455.7911.14%26.46%16.48%18.40%12.40%
20108.10%2.13%71 / 86.0997.9010.96%15.06%16.65%12.13%13.56%
2011-5.38%3.16%97 / 46.8959.449.74%2.11%16.56%4.69%11.28%
20129.01%1.73%276 / 97.52400.197.65%16.00%16.24%11.31%8.64%
201314.34%1.38%286 / 230.841,052.996.84%32.39%15.94%17.56%7.00%
20146.52%0.47%372 / 315.141,810.044.83%13.69%15.60%10.62%5.48%
2015-2.93%0.46%402 / 305.552,446.115.88%1.38%15.47%1.28%6.37%
20169.59%0.58%566 / 379.283,620.085.46%11.96%15.24%8.31%6.33%
201710.83%0.26%714 / 552.644,975.335.01%21.83%14.90%14.21%5.85%
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Swan claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with GIPS. Swan’scompliance with GIPS has been independently verified for the periods July 1, 1997 through December 31, 2017. The Spaulding Group conducted Swan’s verification. Acopy of the verification report is available upon request. To receive copies of the report, please feel free to call (970) 382-8901 or [email protected]. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of GIPS on a firm-wide basis, and (2) the firm’s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with GIPS. Verification does not ensure theaccuracy of any specific composite presentation.
Swan offers and manages The Defined Risk Strategy (“DRS”) for its clients including individuals, institutions and other investment advisor firms. There are eight DRSComposites offered: 1) The DRS Select Composite which includes non-qualified accounts; 2) The DRS IRA Composite which includes qualified accounts; 3) The DRSComposite which combines the DRS Select and DRS IRA Composites; 4) The DRS Institutional Composite which includes high net-worth, non-qualified accounts thatutilize cash-settled, index-based options held at custodians that allow participation in Clearing Member Trade Agreement (CMTA) trades; 5) The Defined Risk FundComposite which includes mutual fund accounts invested in the S&P 500; 6) The DRS Emerging Markets Composite which includes mutual fund accounts invested inemerging markets; 7) The DRS Foreign Developed Composite which includes all research and development account(s), and mutual fund accounts invested in foreigndeveloped markets; 8) The DRS U.S. Small Cap Composite which includes all research and development account(s), and mutual fund accounts invested in U.S. small capissues. Additional information regarding Swan’s policies and procedures for calculating and reporting performance returns is available upon request.
Swan DRS performance results are presented in U.S. dollars and are net-of-actual-fees and trading expenses and reflect the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains.Actual fees may vary based on, among other factors, account size and custodial relationship. No current or prospective client should assume future performance of anyspecific investment strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investmentstrategies, contributions or withdrawals may cause the performance results of a client’s investment portfolio to differ materially from the reported compositeperformance. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable orprofitable for a client’s investment portfolio. Historical performance results for market indices and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transactionand/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performanceresults. Swan uses options in the DRS. Options carry additional risks and are not suitable for all clients. Clients must read and understand the current options riskdisclosure documents prior to entering into any options or other derivatives transactions. Prior to implementing a call writing program or any of the strategiesdescribed herein, a client should further discuss this investment process with other financial, legal and/or tax advisors. The options risk disclosure document is locatedat: http://optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp
The charts and graphs contained herein should not serve as the sole determining factor for making investment decisions. To the extent that you have any questionsregarding the applicability of any specific issue presented or discussed, you are encouraged to consult with Swan Global Investments. All information, including thatused to compile charts, is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Swan Global Investments does not guarantee its reliability. 313-SGI-073018
Disclosures
For Advisor Use Only PRESO-ADV-Q2-18
http://optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp
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