Ekonomi dan Keuangem Indonesia Vol 39, No. 3, 1991

Deforestasi dan Isu Pemanfaatan Lahan yang Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

Syahid A. Boenjamin

A B S T R A K

The purpose of this article is to assess some views on deforestation problems and to examine the existence of some economic problems facing Indonesia in relation to its high rate of deforestation. Further, using an optimal control model, the author tries to estimate Indonesia's forest stock in the steady-state and to analyze the sensitivity of the stock to changes in some economic variables.

Relating to Indonesia's high rate of deforestation, the author argue that (1) deforestation in this country is mainly caused by population pressures, which made the cycle of shifting cultivation shorter; (2) agriculture-related factor is the largest contributor to deforestation rather than logging activities; (3) relatively short period of timber concession and low taxes and royalties have encouraged private concessionaires to maximize short-run profits, hence discouraging reforestation program; (4) it is estimated that economic losses resulted from deforestation (in terms of erosion, water pollution, etc.) in Java alone is around USSfOO million per year.

Indonesia's forest stock in the steady-state is shown to be positively related to forestry returns and negatively related to agriculture returns. Social discount rate and prices, however, do not show significant influences on the stock.

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I . PENDAHULUAN

D e f o r e s t a s i t e l a h m e n j a d i i s u i n t e r n a s i o n a l y a n g h a n g a t , t e r u t a m a d i n e g a r a -n e g a r a y a n g m e m i l i k i h u t a n t r o p i s y a n g l u a s . K e p r i h a t i n a n y a n g d i k e m u -k a k a n b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n e f e k r u m a h k a c a , k a r e n a h u t a n a d a l a h " p a r u - p a r u b u m i . " N e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g m e l a k s a n a k a n p r o g r a m p e m a n f a a t a n h u t a n k i n i b e r a d a d i b a w a h t e k a n a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l a g a r m e n g a m b i l l a n g k a h - l a n g k a h u n t u k m e m p e r l a m b a t l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i . I n d o n e s i a a d a l a h s a l a h s a t u d i a n t a -r a n y a . ,

T u j u a n a r t i k e l i n i a d a l a h u n t u k m e n g k a j i p e l b a g a i p a n d a n g a n a t a s m a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i d a n u n t u k m e n g u j i a d a n y a b e b e r a p a m a s a l a h e k o n o m i y a n g d i h a d a p i I n d o n e s i a d a l a m k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n t i n g g i n y a l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i d i n e g a r a i n i . B a g i a n t e r a k h i r a r t i k e l m e m b a h a s s u a t u m o d e l p e n g e n d a l i a n o p t i m a l [optimal control model) m e n g e n a i k e b e r l a n j u t a n ( s u s t a i n a b i l i t a s ) p e n g g u n a a n l a h a n h u t a n . M o d e l i n i d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n g e s t i m a s i c a d a n g a n h u t a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g d i I n d o n e s i a , d a n u n t u k m e n g a n a l i s i s s e n s i t i v i t a s b e b e r a p a v a r i a b e l e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p p e r k i r a n c a d a n g a n .

I I . L A J U D E F O R E S T A S I D I INDONESIA

I n d o n e s i a m e m i l i k i l u a s l a h a n s e b e s a r 1 9 1 9 j u t a h e k t a r e . S e k i t a r 6 0 p e r s e n d i a n t a r a n y a b e r u p a h u t a n a l a m i . H u t a n I n d o n e s i a a m a t p e n t i n g b a g i d u n i a . D i p e r k i r a k a n , I n d o n e s i a m e m i l i k i h a m p i r 6 0 p e r s e n d a r i s e l u r u h h u t a n t r o p i s d i A s i a d a n k e m u n g k i n a n s e k i t a r 9 0 p e r s e n m a s i h p e r a w a n . D i l i h a t d a r i p r o d u k s i k o m e r s i a l , I n d o n e s i a j u g a m e m i l i k i h u t a n y a n g t e r k a y a d i d u n i a . H u t a n a l a m i d i p e r k i r a k a n m e m i l i k i n i l a i c a d a n g a n , y a i t u r e n t e e k o n o m i y a n g d a p a t d i p e r o l e h b i l a h u t a n - h u t a n i t u d i m a n f a a t k a n k a y u n y a , l e b i h d a r i U S $ 1,2 t r i l i u n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 0 . ( D e e , 1 9 9 0 )

D i s t r i b u s i l u a s h u t a n m e n u r u t p u l a u d i s a j i k a n d a l a m T a b e l 1 . L e b i h d a r i 8 0 p e r s e n h u t a n t e r k o n s e n t r a s i d i t i g a p u l a u t e r b e s a r ( S u m a t e r a , K a l i m a n t a n d a n I r i a n J a y a ) . P a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 0 , d a r i 7 3 , 7 j u t a h e k t a r e h u t a n y a n g d i s e d i a k a n u n t u k d i u s a h a k a n s e c a r a k o m e r s i a l , 3 8 , 9 j u t a h e k t a r e b e l u m t e r j a m a h . ( D e e , 1 9 8 9 )

A k i b a t d a r i p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g p e s a t , t e r u t a m a d a l a m d u a d e k a d e t e r a k h i r , k e k a y a a n i n i b e r k u r a n g d e n g a n c e p a t . P a d a a w a l 1 9 7 0 , F A O m e m p e r k i r a k a n b a h w a l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a h s e k i t a r 3 0 0 . 0 0 0 h a / t a h u n ; d a l a m p e r i o d e 1 9 8 0 - 8 6 , l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i i n i t e l a h m e l o n j a k m e n j a d i 9 0 0 . 0 0 0 h a / t a h u n .

T a b e l 2 m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p r a k t e k - p r a k t e k p e n e b a n g a n y a n g b u r u k h a n y a m e n y u m b a n g s e b a g i a n k e c i l d a r i d e f o r e s t a s i . H u t a n y a n g h i l a n g a k i b a t k e g i a t a n p e n e b a n g a n s e m a c a m i n i h a n y a l a h 8 0 . 0 0 0 h a / t a h u n , a t a u s e k i t a r 1 0 p e r s e n d a r i s e l u r u h d e f o r e s t a s i . S a l a h s a t u f a k t o r u t a m a d a l a m p r o y e k - p r o y e k p e m b a n g u n a n a d a l a h k o n v e r s i h u t a n u n t u k p e r k e b u n a n d a n

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Deforestrasi dan Isu Pemanfaatan Lah2m yang Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

t r a n s m i g r a s i y a n g d i s p o n s o r i p e m e r i n t a h . D i p e r k i r a k a n s e k i t a r 2 5 0 . 0 0 0 h e k t a r e h u t a n d i b e r s i h k a n s e t i a p t a h u n s e l a m a 1 9 8 0 - 8 6 u n t u k k e p e r l u a n i n i .

P e n y e b a b u t a m a d e f o r e s t a s i i n i t e r n y a t a p e r l a d a n g a n b e r p i n d a h d a n k o n v e r s i u n t u k p e r t a n i a n s k a l a k e c i l d i l u a r p r o y e k - p r o y e k p e m b a n g u n a n . P e r l a d a n g a n b e r p i n d a h a d a l a h a d a p t a s i r a s i o n a l a t a s l a h a n y a n g k u r a n g s u b u r . D a l a m s i s t e m i n i , v e g e t a s i d i t e b a n g d a n d i b a k a r a g a r s u m b e r - s u m b e r k e s u b u r a n t e r l e p a s k e t a n a h . K e t i k a k e s u b u r a n t a n a h m e n u r u n , l a h a n d i t i n g g a l k a n s e h i n g g a s e m a k b e l u k a r k e m b a l i t u m b u h . K a r e n a p a r a p e t a n i u m u m n y a l e b i h m e n y u k a i m e n e b a n g h u t a n s e k u n d e r k e t i m b a n g h u t a n p r i m e r , m e r e k a k e m b a l i k e l a h a n y a n g s a m a s e t e l a h 1 0 - 2 0 t a h u n .

Tabel 1: Estmate of Amounth of Land Under

Forest Cover (ha)

Island FAO Estimate Departement of

1980 Forestry

1984

Sumatera 22,200,000 24,174,000

Kalimantan 35,400,000 36,674,000

I r i a n Jaya 38,000,000 28,816,000

Sub Total 95,600,000 89,664,000

Other 18,000,000 22,769,000

Total 113,600,000 112,433,000

Source:- FAO, Tropical Forest. Resource

Assessment Projekt, 1981

- Departement of Forestry, 1987

P e l b a g a i s t u d i R e P P r o t ( 1 9 8 7 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a h a m p i r 2 j u t a k e l u a r g a t e r l i h a t d a l a m p r a k t e k p e r l a d a n g a n b e r p i n d a h i n i , d a n s e k i t a r 2 8 j u t a h e k t a r e l a h a n d i l u a r J a w a d i g u n a k a n u n t u k s i s t e m p r o d u k s i s e m a c a m i n i . J i k a l a h a n - l a h a n i n i d i p e r k i r a k a n b e r t a m b a h s e k i t a r 2 p e r s e n p e r t a h u n , m a k a d e f o r e s t a s i a k i b a t k o n v e r s i h u t a n b e r s k a l a k e c i l i n i d i l u a r J a w a a k a n b e r k i s a r p a d a 5 0 0 . 0 0 0 h a / t a h u n .

A k a n t e t a p i , h a r u s d i i n g a t b a h w a d a t a t e n t a n g d e f o r e s t a s i i n i d i d a s a r k a n a t a s p e r k i r a a n k a s a r , b u k a n a t a s k e g i a t a n p e n g u m p u l a n d a t a y a n g a k u r a t . M i s a l n y a , p e r k i r a a n B a n k D u n i a ( 1 9 8 8 ) m e n g e n a i d e f o r e s t a s i a k i b a t p e r l a d a n g a n b e r p i n d a h d i p e r o l e h d e n g a n v a r i a n s y a n g s a n g a t b e s a r .

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Tabel 2: Rate of Deforestation in Indonesia

('000 ha.)

1980 - 86 Annual Rate

Smallholder Conversion 3,000 500 -Kalimantan 2,100 350 - I r i a n Jaya 300 50 -Other 600 100

Development Projects 1,280 213 -Sponsored Transming 600 100 -Spontaneous Transming 600 100 -Estate Crops 80 13

Other 840 140 -Logging Damage 480 80 -Normal F i r e Loss 360 60

Total 5120 860

Note

East Kalimantan F i r e 3000

Total Logging 960 160

Source: World Bank Estimation, 1988

Deforestrasi dan Isu Pemanfeiatan Lahan yang Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

E s t i m a s i b e r k i s a r a n t a r a 3 5 0 . 0 0 0 h i n g g a 6 5 0 . 0 0 0 h e k t a r e . D i p i h a k l a i n , d e f o r e s t a s i a k i b a t p r o g r a i.Ti t r a n s m i g r a s i b a r a n g k a l i l e b i h b e s a r d a r i p c i d a y a n g d i t u n j u k k a n o l e h e s t i m a s i t e r s e b u t . S e b a g a i a k i b a t d a r i b u r u k n y a s u r v e y y a n g d i l a k u k a n u n t u k p e n e m p a t a n t r a n s m i g r a n , l a h a n p e r t a n i a n y a n g d i b e r i k a n k e p a d a p a r a t r a n s m i g r a n k u r a n g s u b u r . I n i d a p a t m e r a n g s a n g m e r e k a ( t i d a k l a m a s e t e l a h d i t e m p a t k a n ) u n t u k b e r a l i h k e k e g i a t a n l a i n a t a u m e n i n g g a l k a n l a h a n y a n g d i s e d i a k a n p e m e r i n t a h u n t u k p i n d a h l e b i h j a u h k e d a l a m h u t a n u n t u k t a n a m a n b a r u m e r e k a .

D e f o r e s t a s i a k i b a t f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n p e r t a n i a n a d a l a h g e j a l a y a n g u m u m d i I n d o n e s i a . A k i b a t t e k a n a n p e n d u d u k d a n k e t e r b a t a s a n k a p a s i t a s p e n y e r a p a n t e n a g a s e k t o r - s e k t o r e k o n o m i d i J a w a , s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d i l u a r J a w a t e l a h m e n i n g k a t . P a d a a w a l 1 9 7 0 - a n , p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a m e n g a l a m i p e r g e s e r a n t e r u s m e n e r u s d a r i p r e r t a n i a n k e s e k t o r - s e k t o r l a i n . D e n g a n s e k i t a r 7 0 p e r s e n p e n d u d u k t i n g g a l d i d a e r a h p e d e s c i a n d a n t e r g a n t u n g , l a n g s u n g d a n t i d a k l a n g s u n g , p a d a p e r t a n i a n s u b s i s t e n , p e r u b a h a n t e r s e b u t j e l a s m e n g u n t u n g k a n . A k a n t e t a p i , s e b a g a i a k i b a t p e n u r u n a n p e n e r i m a a n d a r i m i n y a k s e l a m a 1 9 8 0 - a n , l a j u p e r t u m b u h ­a n d a n p e k e r j a a n d i s e k t o r - s e k t o r l a i n t e r p a k s a m e n u r u n . M i s a l n y a , p e r t u m ­b u h a n s e k t o r m a n u f a k t u r m e n u r u n d a r i 1 3 p e r s e n p e r t a h u n s e i a m a 1 9 7 0 - a n m e n j a d i s e k i t a r 3 , 7 p e r s e n s e t e l a h 1 9 8 3 . I n i m e n y e b a b k a n m u n c u l n y a k e m b a l i t e k a n a n a t a s s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n u n t u k m e n y e r a p k e l e b i h a n t e n a g a k e r j a . S e k t o r p e r t a n i a n y a n g m e n y e r a p s e k i t a r 2 6 p e r s e n p e k e r j a b a r u s e l a m a 1 9 7 1 - 8 0 , m e n y e r a p s e k i t a r 4 2 p e r s e n s e l a m a 1 9 8 0 - 8 5 ( l i h a t T a b e l 3 ) .

Tabel 3: Shere of Employment Growth ( % )

In Java and the Outer Islands

Area 1971-80 1980-85

Java 58 50

Agriculture 8 12

Other 50 38

Outer Islands 42 50

Agriculture 18 30

Other 24 20

Total 100 100

Agriculture 26 42

Other 74 58

Source: World Bank, 1990

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D i J a w a , d i p i h a k l a i n , k a p a s i t a s s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n u n t u k m e n y e r a p t e n a g a k e r j a t e r b a t a s . H i n g g a a w a l 1 9 8 0 - a n , 7 5 p e r s e n d a r i p e r m u k a a n l a h a n d i J a w a d i t a n a m i d a n s e k i t a r 8 7 p e r s e n d i g u n a k a n s e c a r a p r o d u k t i f ( B a n k D u n i a , 1 9 9 0 ) . B u r u h t a n i t a n p a t a n a h d i J a w a y a n g m e n g i n g i n k a n p e k e r j a a n d i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n h a r u s p i n d a h k e l u a r J a w a .

P a d a a k h i r 1 9 8 0 - a n , k o n d i s i d i l u a r J a w a m e n g h a s i l k a n t e k a n a n y a n g s a m a a t a s t a n a h . W a l a u p u n 4 0 p e r s e n p e n d u d u k t i n g g a l d i l u a r J a w a , h a n y a 2 0 p e r s e n d a r i s e l u r u h i n d u s t r i m e n e g a h d a n b e s a r y a n g b e r l o k a s i d i S a n a . I r i i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p a r a p e k e r j a b a r u a k a n m e n c a r i p e k e r j a a n d i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . W a l a u p u n J a w a m e m p u n y a i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k y a n g t e r g a n t u n g p a d a s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n y a n g l e b i h b e s a r k e t i m b a n g d i l u a r J a w a , d a r i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 h i n g g a 1 9 8 5 s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d i J a w a h a n y a m e n y e r a p 1 2 p e r s e n d a r i p a r a p e k e r j a b a r u , s e m e n t a r a s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d i l u a r J a w a m e n y e r a p 3 0 p e r s e n .

P e r l u a s a n p e r t a n i a n a k i b a t f a k t o r - f a k t o r i n i d i c e r m i n k a n d a l a m T a b e l 4 . S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 3 - 8 3 , p r o d u k s i b e r a s l a h a n k e r i n g m e n i n g k a t l e b i h d a r i 5 0 p e r s e n d a n b e r t a m b a h l u a s s e k i t a r 3 , 4 j u t a h e k t a r e . P e r t a m ­b a h a n t e r s e b u t t e r u t a m a a m a t p e s a t d i l u a r J a w a , s e p e r t i S u l a w e s i ( 5 , 6 % p e r t a h u n ) , K a l i m a n t a n ( 4 , 6 % p>er t a h u n ) , d a n S u m a t e r a ( 3 , 7 % p e r t a h u n ) . I n i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d u d u k d i k o m b i n a s i k a n d e n g a n k e t e r b a ­t a s a n p / e n y e r a p a n t e n a g a k e r j a d i J a w a t e l a h m e n g a k i b a t k a n k e n a i k a n p e r m i n t a a n a k a n l a h a n d i l u a r J a w a , s e h i n g g a m e n y u m b a n g p a d a l a j u d e f o ­r e s t a s i .

Tabel 4: Average Annual Rate of Expansion

of Wetland and Dryland Rice, 1973-83

Island Wetland Dryland

Java 1.1 1.8

Sumatera 2.2 3.7

Nusa Tenggara 2.2 3.7

Kalimantan 3.5 4.6

Sulawesi 1.6 5.6

Source: World Bank, 1990

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Deforestreisi dan Isu Pemanfjiatan Lahan yeing Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

i n . D E F O R E S T A S I D I INDONESIA: B E R B A G A I ISU

A. Beberapa pendekatan terhadap masalah deforestasi

S e h e l u m m e n g a n a l i s i s i s u - i s u y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n d e f o r e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a , k i t a a k a n m e m b a h a s d u a p e n d e k a t a n a t a s d e f o r e s t a s i . K e p r i h a t i n a n K a u m E n v i r o n m e n t a l i s m e n g e n a i d e f o r e s t a s i t e r u t a m a b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n f u n g s i l i n g k u n g a n h u t a n s e b a g a i p e n y e r a p k a r b o n d i o k s i d a . P e r u s a k a n h u t a n , t e r u t a m a d i d c i e r a h t r o p i s , d a p a t m e m p e r p a r a h p e n u m p u k a n C O 2 d i s e l u r u h d u n i a ( e f e k r u m a h k a c a ) d a n m e n y e b a b k a n p e n i n g k a t a n s u h u b u m i . P e n i n g k a t a n s u h u i n i b e r a k i b a t b u r u k t e r h a d a p p e r t a n i a n dan m e n g a n c a m k o t a - k o t a p a n t a i j i k a e s k u t u b m u l a i m e n c a i r . ( H a r t w i c k a n d O l e w i l e r , 1 9 8 6 ) . T e o r i - t e o r i t e n t a n g i k l i m m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k e n a i k a n b e b e r a p a j e n i s g a s t e r t e n t u d a l a m a t m o s f i r d a p a t m e n g h a s i l k a n k e n a i k a n s u h u b u m i , d e n g a n m e n g u r a n g i k e h i l a n g a n p a n a s d a r i p e r m u k a a n b u m i d a n d e n g a n m e n i n g k a t k a n r a d i a s i m a t a h a r i a k i b a t m e n i p i s n y a l a p i s a n o z o n . A k a n t e t a p i , R o b e r t s o n ( 1 9 9 0 a ) m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a m o d e l - m o d e l i l m i a h b e l u m s e c a r a m a n t a p m e n j e l a s k a n b a g a i m a n a g a s - g a s i n i m e m p e n g a r n h i a t m o s f i r d a n b a h w a d a t a s t a t i s t i k t e n t a n g r a t a - r a t a s u h u b u m i m e m b e r i k a n d u k u n g a n y a n g t e r b a t a s t e r h a d a p p r o p o s i s i y a n g m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a i k l i m b u m i s e c a r a b e r t a h a p m e m a n a s . S e l a i n i t u , t e o r i - t e o r i t e r s e b u t m e n g a b a i k a n k e n y a t a a n b a h w a a i a m m e m i l i k i s i s t e m p e n y e s u a i a n n y a s e n d i r g u n a m e l i n d u n g i d i r i n y a d a r i k e r u s a k a n l i n g k u n g a n y a n g d i t i m b u l k a n m a n u s i a .

B e r l a n d a s k a n a s u m s i b a h w a m a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i a d a l a h m a s a l a h g l o b a l , b e b e r a p a o r a n g c e n d e r u n g m e n g u s u l k a n k e t e r l i b a t a n p e n d e k a t a n m u l t i l a t e r a l u n t u k m e m p e r k o k o h t e k a n a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l a t a s n e g a r a - n e g a r a k a y a h u t a n u n t u k m e l i n d u n g i h u t a n . M i s a l n y a , K o n f e r e n s i D e n H a a g t a h u n 1 9 8 9 m e n g u s u l k a n p e n g g u n a a n " i n s t r u m e n h u k u m " u n t u k m e n d u k u n g h a l i t u , d a n d a l a m h a l i n i M a h k a m a h I n t e r n a s i o n a l d a p a t d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e m a k s a k a n s t a n d a r y a n g d i i n g i n k a n d a n d i s e t u j u i y a n g d i b e n t u k o l e h s u a t u l e m b a g a b a r u P B B .

I n d o n e s i a b e r a d a d i b a w a h t e k a n a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l u n t u k m e n g u r a n g i l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i n y a y a n g d e m i k i a n t i n g g i . I n i d i d a s a r k a n a t a s t u d u h a n b a h w a d e f o r e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a d e m i k i a n t i n g g i n y a s e h i n g g a n e g a r a i n i d i t e m p a t k a n s e b a g a i n e g a r a k e d u a ( s e t e l a h B r a z i l ) y a n g m e n y u m b a n g t e r h a d a p p e n i n g ­k a t a n s u h u b u m i ( B a n k D u n i a , 1 9 9 0 ) . I n d o n e s i a , s e p e r t i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g l a i n y a n g m e m i l i k i h u t a n t r o p i s , m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a n e g a r a - n e g a r a b a r a t l a h y a n g h a r u s d i s a l a h k a n k a r e n a m e n e b a n g s e b a g i a n b e s a r h u t a n , b a i k h u t a n m e r e k a s e n d i r i m a u p u n h u t a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g , s e l a m a p r o s e s f ) e m b c i n g u n a n m e r e k a ( H u r s t , 1 9 9 1 ) . M i s a l n y a , p a d a t a h u n 1 9 6 3 , l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t s a m a d e n g a n l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a s e k a r a n g ( S o e m a r w o t o , 1 9 9 0 ) . D i n y a t a k a n p u l a b a h w a j i k a h u t a n t r o p i s m e n j c i d i s u m b e r d a y a d u n i a d a n s a n g a t p e n t i n g b a g i i k l i m d u n i a d i m a s a d e p a n , m a k a n e g a r a - n e g a r a k a y a h a r u s b e r s e d i a m e n g k o m p e n s a s i opportunity costs u n t u k m e l i n d u n g i s u m b e r d a y a i n i ( P o t t e r , 1 9 9 1 ) . D a l a m h a l I n d o n e s i a ,

2 4 3

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S a l i m ( 1 9 8 2 ) m e n g u s u l k a n g a g a s a n debt for nature-swap s e b a g a i p e n g a t u r a n k o m p e n s a s i .

D i p i h a k l a i n , p a r a a h l i e k o n o m i c e n d e r u n g m e n o l a k a n g g a p a n b a h w a p e n d e k a t a n m u l t i l a t e r a l a d a l a h s a t u - s a t u n y a c a r a u n t u k m e n y e l e s a i -k a n m a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i d i k e b a n y a k a n n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g ( R o b e r t s o n , 1 9 9 0 a ) . M a s a l a h p e n i n g k a t a n s u h u b u m i , s e p e r t i k e r u s a k a n l i n g k u n g a n y a n g l a i n , b e r a s a l d a r i p e l i m b a h a n m a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i d i t i n g k a t n a s i o n a l ; k a r e n a i t u , t i n d a k a n - t i n d a k a n n a s i o n a l d i a n g g a p l e b i h e f e k t i f u n t u k m e n g a t a s i m a s a l a h ' i n i . K e r u s a k a n l i n g k u n g a n p a d a u m u m n y a a d a l a h h a s i l s a m p i n g a n d a r i b e r b a g a i k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i d i m a n a b i a y a s o s i a l y a n g d i t i m b u l k a n n y a t i d a k t e r c a k u p d a l a m a k u n t a n s i y a n g b e r l a k u d i p a s a r . A d a n y a e k s t e r n a l i t a s b a i k p a d a s i s i k o n s u m s i m a u p u n s i s i p r o d u k s i m e r a n g s a n g m e k a n i s m e p a s a r u n t u k m e n g a b a i k a n b i a y a - b i a y a t e r s e b u t ( a r g u m e n k e g a g a l a n p a s a r ) . J i k a b i a y a - b i a y a i n i d a p a t d i i n t e r n a l i s a s i k a n , k e p u t u s a n k o n s u m s i d a n p r o d u k s i s w a s t a a k a n b e r u b a h d a n k e r u s a k a n a t a s l i n g k u n g a n a k a n b e r k u r a n g , d a n u n t u k m e n c a p a i i n i p e r a n a n i n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h s a n g a t p e n t i n g . D a l a m h a l d e f o r e s t a s i , i n t e r n a l i s a s i b i a y a - b i a y a t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i l a k u k a n m e l a l u i p e n g e n a a n p a j a k p e n e b a n g a n p o h o n d a n r e t r i b u s i p e r i z i n a n .

S a y a n g n y a , d i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g b e b e r a p a k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i b a h k a n m e m p e r b u r u k d e f o r e s t a s i ( a r g u m e n k e g a g a l a n k e b i j a k a n ) . R e p e t t o ( 1 9 8 8 ) m e n c a t a t b a h w a p e m e r i n t a h - p e m e r i n t a h d i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g t e l a h m e n j u a l k a y u t e r l a l u m u r a h , m e n g o r b a n k a n p e n e r i m a a n p e m e r i n t a h d a n m a n f a a t d i l u a r p e r k a y u a n y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i t e g a k a n h u t a n , y a n g s e r i n g k a l i d i n i l a i t e r l a l u r e n d a h , d a n m e r a n g s a n g e k s p l o i t a s i p e r k a y u a n . S y a r a t - s y a r a t p e r j a n j i a n k o n s e s i h u t a n d a n s i s t e m p e n e r i m a a n t e l a h m e n d o r o n g p e n g u s a h a a n h u t a n y a n g b o r o s d a n m e n g u r a s s u m b e r d a y a . S e l a i n i t u , k e b i j a k a n - k e b i j a k a n d i l u a r s e k t o r k e h u t a n a n s e r i n g k a l i m e n o p a n g p e n i n g k a t a n d e f o r e s t a s i . M i s a l n y a , B i n s w a n g e r ( 1 9 8 9 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p e r a t u r a n a l o k a s i l a h a n d i B r a z i l t e l a h m e m p e r c e p a t d e f o r e s t a s i . P e m b e r i a n l a h a n y a n g l u a s d i s e r a h k a n d e n g a n p r o p o r s i l a n g s u n g d e n g a n h u t a n y a n g d i b e r s i h k a n k e p a d a p a r a p e t e r n a k u n t u k m e n a n a m t u m b u h a n t e r t e n t u . L e b i h d a r i i t u , d i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a m o d i f i k a s i a t a s k e b i j a k a n y a r f g b e r l a k u , s e b a g a i r e a k s i t e r h a d a p d e f o r e s t a s i , j u s t r u m e m p e r b e s a r p e n i p i s a n h u t a n . U p a y a u n t u k m e n g u r a n g i l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i t i d a k d a p a t d i l a k u k a n b e g i t u s a j a , m i s a l ­n y a , d e n g a n m e m b a t a s i i m p o r k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n . S e b a g a i m a n a d i k e m u k a k a n o l e h L i n d s a y ( 1 9 8 9 ) b a h w a p e l a r a n g a n b e r t a h a p t e r h a d a p e k s p o r k a y u g e l o n ­d o n g a n y a n g d i l a k u k a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a 1 9 8 1 - 8 6 k e n y a t c i a n n y a m a l a h m e m p e r ­c e p a t p e n g a m b i l a n k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n . K e b i j a k a n s e m a c a m i t u , k e n d a t i d i t u -j u k a n u n t u k m e r a n g s a n g n i l a i t a m b a h d o m e s t i k , t e l a h m e n y e b a b k a n p e n i n g ­k a t a n d e f o r e s t a s i k a r e n a d a l a m h a l i n i p a s a r k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n d a l a m n e g e r i t e r i s o l a s i d a r i p a s a r i n t e r n a s i o n a l d a n k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n d i h a r g a i t e r l a l u r e n d a h , s e h i n g g a m e n i n g k a t k a n p e r m i n t a a n a k a n k a y u g e l o d o n g a n d a r i i n d u s t r i p e r k a y u a n d a l a m n e g e r i .

D i t i n g k a t n a s i o n a l , k e p r i h a t i n a n m e n g e n a i m a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i

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Deforestrasi dan Isu Pemanfaatan Lahan yang Berkelanjutan di Ihdonesia

c e n d e r u n g d i f o k u s k a n p a d a d e g r a d a s i l i n g k u n g a n l o k a l y a n g d i t i m b u l k a n o l e h d e f o r e s t a s i . H u t a n m e m i l i k i b e b e r a p a f u n g s i p e n t i n g s e p e r t i p e r l i n d u n g a n m a t a a i r d a n p e n c e g a h a n e r o s i t a n a h , p e n c e m a r a n a i r , d a n p e r l i n d u n g a n d a n p e m u p u k a n t a n a h d a n k a y u u n t u k p e m a n f a a t a n d i m a s a d e p a n . J i k a l a h a n a k a n d i k o n v e r s i k a n u n t u k k e p e r l u a n l a i n , s e p e r t i u n t u k p e r t a n i a n t a n a m a n p a n g a n a t a u p e m b a n g u n a n k o t a , s e b a g i a n b e s a r m a n f a a t l i n g k u n g a n i n i h i l a n g . B i a y a - b i a y a s e m a c a m i n i t i d a k d i m a s u k k a n d a l a m p e r t i m b a n g a n d a l a m m e n g a m b i l k e p u t u s a n d a n m e r a n g s a n g k e r u g i a n e k o n o m i s y a n g h a r u s d i t a n g g u n g s e k t o r l a i n . P a r a k o n s e r v a s i o n i s e k s t r e m b a r a n g k a l i a k a n m e n d u ­k u n g p e l a r a n g a n t o t a l a t a s p e m a n f a a t a n h u t a n u n t u k m e n c e g a h k e r u s a k a n l i n g k u n g a n . A k a n t e t a p i , j i k a b i a y a n y a d a p a t d i i n t e r n a l i s a s i s e c a r a t e p a t , t e r u t a m a m e l a l u i s i s t e m f i s k a l , l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i d a p a t d i k u r a n g i s a m p a i t i n g k a t y a n g d a p a t d i p e r t a n g g u n g j a w a b k a n . D i p i h a k l a i n , r e n t e e k o n o m i y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i s e k t o r k e h u t a n a n d a p a t d i g u n a k a n u n t u k p e n g e l u a r a n y a n g m e n a i k k a n t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n d a n m e m a n t a p k a n m a n a j e m e n h u t a n y a n g e f i s i e n ; m i s a l n y a , d e n g a n u n t u k m e n d a n a i p r o y e k - p r o y e k r e f o r e s t a s i y a n g t e p a t , m e n a i k k a n e f i s i e n s i p e n e b a n g a n h u t a n d a n i n d u s t r i p e r k a y u a n , m e n a i k k a n e f i s i e n s i d a l a m s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n u n t u k m e n g h i n d a r i m e t o d e p r o d u k s i y a n g e k s t e n s i f , d a n s e b a g a i n y a .

P e n e t a p a n k e b i j a k a n y a n g c e r m a t d a n p e r h a t i a n a t a s i n s t r u m e n e k o n o m i a k a n m e n g a r a h k e p a d a p e n c a p a i a n k o n s e p y a n g d i s e b u t " p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g b e r k e l a n j u t a n (sustainable development)." K o n s e p p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g b e r k e l a n j u t a n b e r l a n d a s k a n p e n g a k u a n b a h w a s u m b e r -s u m b e r d a y a b e r s i f a t t e r b a t a s ; s e h i n g g a , p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i h a r u s d i c a p a i t a n p a m e n g a b a i k a n k e n y a t a a n i n i . P a r a e k o n o m i w a n a k a n m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a i n t e r v e n s i p e m e r i n t a h d i p e r l u k a n u n t u k m e m a s t i k a n b a h w a e k s t e r ­n a l i t a s d a l a m p e m a n f a a t a n h u t a n ( y a i t u d e g r a d a s i l i n g k u n g a n a k i b a t d e f o r e s t a s i ) d i t a n g a n i d e n g a n t e p a t . B e r l a n d a s k a n m o d e l p e n g e n d a l i a n o p t i m a l ( s e b a g a i m a n a d i b a h a s s e c a r a r i n g k a s n a n t i ) , p a r a e k o n o m i w a n p e r c a y a b a h w a j i k a p e m e r i n t a h m e n g a m b i l p e r a n a k t i f d a l a m m e n a n g a n i m a s a l a h - m a s a l a h e k s t e r n a l i t a s , s e k t o r s w a s t a a k a n m e n g g u n a k a n l a h a n h u t a n s e c a r a e f i s i e n . D a l a m c a k r a w a l w a k t u y a n g t i d a k t e r b a t c i s , m e k a n i s m e p a s a r a k a n m e n y e d i a k a n t a n d a - t a n d a y a n g m e m a d a i b a g i s e k t o r - s e k t o r e k o n o m i , t e r m a s u k s e k t o r k e h u t a n d a n s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n , u n t u k m e n y e s u a i k a n d i r i t e r h a d a p a d a n y a d e g r a d a s i l i n g k u n g a n . D e g r a d a s i a k a n d i c e r m i n k a n d a l a m p e n u r u n a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s d a l a m s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . P a d a a k h i r n y a , h a l i n i a k a n d i t r a n s f o r m a s i k a n k e d a l a m s i n y a l h a r g a d a n a k a n m e m p e n g a r n h i p r o s e s p e n g a m b i l a n k e p u t u s a n m e n g e n a i p e m a n f a a t a n l a h a n h u t a n .

A k a n t e t a p i , h a r u s d i i n g a t b a h w a p e n d e k a t a n e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p p e m a n f a a t a n l a h a n h u t a n y a n g b e r k e l a n j u t a n b e l u m d i j e l a s k a n s e c a r a m e m u a s k a n d a l a m k o n s e p k e b e r l a n j u t a n d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g d e f o r e s -t r a s i n y a t e r u t a m a d i t i m b u l k a n o l e h t e k a n a n p e n d u d u k . F a k t o r i n i s e c a r a e k s o g e n m e n y e b a b k a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e r m i n t a a n a k a n l a h a n p e r t a n i a n d a n m e n c i p t a k a n m a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i . S e s u n g g u h n y a , i n i l a h f a k t o r u t a m a y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n d e f o r e s t a s i d i p e l b a g a i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g , n a m u n m o d e l -

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m o d e l e k o n o m i u n t u k p e n g g u n a a n l a h a n h u t a n y a n g o p t i m a l j a r a n g m e m p e r h i t u n g k a n h a l i n i .

B. P e l b a g a i i s u d a l a m d e f o r e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a

I s u p e r t a m a b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n t i n g g i n y a l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a . J i k a h a l i t u t e r u s b e r l a n g s u n g d e n g a n l a j u s e p e r t i s e k a r a n g , h a l i n i a k a n m e n g a n c a m p e m a s o k a n k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n d a n p r o d u k - p r o d u k h u t a n o l a h a n . S e b a g a i m a n a y a n g t e l a h d i k e m u k a k a n d i a t a s , p e r l a d a n g a n b e r p i n d a h a d a l a h f a k t o r u t a m a y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n d e f o r e s t a s i . A d a k e p e r c a y a a n b a h w a s i s t e m p r o d u k s i s e m a c a m i n i t i d a k p e r l u m e n g g a n g g u s i s t e m e k o l o g i k a r e n a p a r a p e t a n i m e m b e r s i h k a n h u t a n s e k u n d e r p a d a l o k a s i y a n g s a m a d a l a m j a n g k a w a k t u t e r t e n t u . A k a n t e t a p i , s e b a g a i a k i b a t t e k a n a n p e n d u d u k , s i k l u s n y a m e n j a d i s e m a k i n p e n d e k d a n l o k a s i n y a c e n d e r u n g m e n i n g k a t . K a r e n a h u t a n -h u t a n p r i m e r t i d a k a k a n d i b e r s i h k a n h a n y a d e n g a n m e t o d e t r a d i s i o n a l , p a r a p e t a n i c e n d e r u n g m e m b e r s i h k a n h u t a n y a n g b e r a d a d i b a w a h p r o g r a m p e n e b a n g a n s e l e k t i f . I n i t e n t u s a j a a k a n m e n g a n c a m r o t a s i o p t i m a l h u t a n y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n .

D e f o r e s t a s i t e r j a d i d e n g a n b i a y a e k o n o m i s y a n g b e s a r . D e n g a n m e n e -r a p k a n n i l a i - n i l a i e k o n o m i s a t a s s e t i a p k e g i a t a n y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n d e f o r e s t a s i d a n k e n y a t e i a n b a h w a p e n e b a n g a n a d a l a h c a r a y a n g p a l i n g m e n g u n t u n g k a n u n t u k m e m a n f a a t k a n h u t a n . B a n k D u n i a ( 1 9 9 0 ) m e m p e r ­k i r a k a n b a h w a b i a y a - b i a y a e k o n o m i s a k i b a t d e f o r e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a b i s a m e n c a p a i k i r a - k i r a U S $ 1 m i l y a r p e r t a h u n . E s t i m a s i i n i h a n y a m e n u n j u k k a n b e s a r n y a k e r u g i a n y a n g h a r u s d i t a n g g u n g p e r e k o n o m i a n a k i b a t d e f o r e s t a s i d a n m e n g a b a i k a n m a n f a a t s o s i a l d a r i d e f o r e s t a s i . K e r u g i a n t e r s e b u t c u k u p b e s a r j i k a d i b a n d i n g k a n , m i s a l n y a , d e n g a n n i l a i p r o d u k s i k e h u t a n a n , y a n g b e r k i s a r p a d a a n g k a U S $ 2 , 4 3 m i l y a r p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 8 .

K e n d a t i d e m i k i a n , k e g i a t a n p e n e b a n g a n h u t a n d i I n d o n e s i a s e b a g i a n b e s a r d i l a k u k a n o l e h p e m e g a n g k o n s e s i h u t a n s w a s t a y a n g c e n d e r u n g m e m i ­l i k i o r i e n t a s i l a b a j a n g k a p e n d e k d a n k u r a n g b e r u s a h a m e n c a p a i e k s p l o i t a s i y a n g b e r k e l a n j u t a n d a l a m j a n g k a p a n j a n g . M e n u r u t B a n k D u n i a ( 1 9 9 0 ) , 4 0 p e r s e n d a r i c a d a n g a n h u t a n r u s a k d a l a m e k s p l o i t a s i h u t a n d a n d i l o k a s i -l o k a s i y a n g d i t e b a n g k e m b a l i s e b e l u m s i k l u s p e n e b a n g a n 3 5 t a h u n b e r a k h i r , k e r u s a k a n l e b i h p a r a h l a g i . S e l a i n i t u , k a r e n a s p e s i e s b e r k u r a n g s e c a r a p e r l a h a n d a n d a l a m b e b e r a p a k o n d i s i k h u s u s , p e n e b a n g a n s e l e k t i f j u g a c e n d e r u n g m e l i n d u n g i s p e s i e s y a n g s e h a t n a m u n k u r a n g b e r n i l a i . J i k a p e n g h u t a n a n k e m b a l i k u r a n g d i a w a s i o l e h p e m e r i n t a h , p e m e g a n g k o n s e s i k e r a p k a l i m e n a n a m k e m b a l i s p e s i e s - s p e s i e s d e n g a n b i a y a m i n i m u m , t e t a p i t e n t u s a j a i n i m e n g h a s i l k a n s p e s i e s y a n g k u r a n g b e r n i l a i d i m a s a d e p a n .

M a s a l a h d i a t a s s e b a g i a n d i s e b a b k a n o l e h k e b i j a k a n p e m e r i n t a h y a n g t i d a k m e m a d a i . K o n s e s i h u t a n y a n g r e l t i f p e n d e k ( 3 5 t a h u n ) b a r a n g k a l i m e n y u m b a n g k e p a d a p e n d e k n y a p e r s p e k t i f m e r e k a , s e m e n t a r a p a j a k d a n

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Deforestrcisi dan Isu Pemeuifekatem Lahan yang Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

r o y a l t i y a n g r e l a t i f r e n d a h m e r a n g s a n g p a r a p e m e g a n g k o n s e s i u n t u k m e m a k s i m u m k a n p e n e b a n g a n u n t u k m e m p e r o l e h l a b a d i a t a s n o r m a l . A k a n t e t a p i , s e j a k A p r i l 1 9 8 9 , p e m e r i n t a h t e l a h m e n a i k k a n r e t r i b u s i p e n g h i j a u a n s e b e s a r 1 5 0 p e r s e n d a b m e m p e r k e n a l k a n p a j a k b a r u a t a s k a y u g e r g a j i a j i .

S e p e r t i y a n g t e l a h d i s e b u t k a n , k e p r i h a t i n a n m e n g e n a i d e f o r e s t a s i t e r u t a m a b e r p u s a t p a d a d e g r a d a s i l i n g k u n g a n l o k a l . K e t i k a p e p o h o n a n d i t e b a n g , t a n a h k e h i l a n g a n p e l i n d u n g , e r o s i m e n i n g k a t d a n m a t e r i a l o r g a n i k t e r s a p u . J i k a s u a t u a r e a d i b a k a r a t a u d i t a n a m i s e l a m a b e b e r a p a t a h u n , t u n a s p o h o n h a n c u r . D a l a m h a l i n i t a n a h m e n j a d i r u s a k d a n k a p a s i t a s h u t a n u n t u k b e r e g e n a r a s i b e r k u r a n g . D i p i h a k l a i n , d e f o r e s t a s i y a n g t e r j c i d i d i a t a s m a t a a i r d a p a t m e n i n g k a t k a n k e t i d a k t e r a t u r a n a l i r a n s u n g a i . A k i b a t k u r a n g n y a p e r t a h a n a i i d i b a g i a n h u l u , h u j a n y a n g t u r u n m e n g a l i r d e n g a n c e p a t d a n t e r k o n s e n t r a s i p a d a a l i r a n a i r , s e h i n g g g a m e n i m b u l k a n b a n j i r b a n d a n g . S e l a m a m u s i m k e m a r a u , a l i r a n s u n g a i b e r k u r a n g d a n a k h i r n y a a k a n m e n g u r a n g i a l i r a n a i r b e r s i h b a g i p a r a p e m a k a i r u m a h t a n g g a d a n i n d u s t r i .

T i d a k s e m u a d e g r c i d a s i l i n g k u n g a n l o k a l d a p a t d e n g a n m u d a h d i k u a n t i f i k a s i d a n d i k o n v e r s i k a n m e n j a d i n i l a i e k o n o m i . N a m u n , m i s a l n y a , M a g r a t h d a n A r e n s ( 1 9 8 9 ) m e n c o b a m e n g i d e n t i f i k a s i k e r u g i a n e k o n o m i s a k i b a t e r o s i d i J a w a . M e n u r u t m e t o d e m e r e k a , e r o s i m e m i l i k i a k i b a t b a i k p a d a l o k a s i m a u p u n d a e r a h l a i n . P e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p l o k a s i t e r b e s a r m e n c a k u p h i l a n g n y a k e s u b u r a n p a d a p e r m u k a a n t a n a h , b e r k u r a n g n y a l a p i s a n a t a s t a n a h , h i l a n g n y a k e l e m b a b a n t a n a h y a n g d i p e r l u k a n u n t u k p e r t u m b u h a n t a n a m a n d a n h i l a n g n y a k a p a s i t a s u n t u k m e n g h a s i l k a n t a n a m a n y a n g l e b i h m e n g u n t u n g k a n . D i p i h a k l a i n , p e n g a r u h n y a t e r h a d a p d a e r a h l a i n b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n t i m b u n a n p a r t i k e l t a n a h d i b a g i a n h i l i r . I n i m e n c a k u p t e r u t a m a : ( i ) p e l u m p u r a n s i s t e m i r i g a s i , ( i i ) p e l u m p u r a n p e l a b u h a n d a n s u n g a i ; ( i i i ) h i l a n g n y a k a p a s i t a s P L T A d a n i r i g a s i a k i b a t s e d i m e n t a s i r e s e r v o i r . B e r l a n d a s k a n p e n d e k a t a n i n i , e s t i m a s i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a b i a y a a k i b a t e r o s i t a n a h t e r h e i d a p l o k a s i d i J a w a s e k i t a r U S $ 3 1 6 j u t a p e r t a h u n , s e d a n g k a n b i a y a t e r h a d a p d a e r a h l a i n d i p e r k i r a k a n m e n c a p a i U S $ 25 s / d 9 0 j u t a p e r t a h u n .

IV . ESTIMASI CADANGAN HUTAN INDONESIA D A L A M J A N G K A PANJANG

S e b a g a i m a n a t e l a h d i d i s k u s i k a n d a l a m B a g i a n I I I , b a h w a i s u - i s u t e n t a n g d e f o r e s t a s i m e m p u n y a i d u a d i m e n s i : ( i ) d e g r a d a s i l i n g k u n g a n d a n ( i i ) k e b e r ­l a n j u t a n p e n g g u n a a n l a h a n h u t a n . E h u i , ei. ai ( 1 9 8 9 ) m e m p e r k e n a l k a n s u a t u m o d e l p e n g e n d a l i a n o p t i m a l u n t u k m e n a n g k a p s e c a r a t e p a t k e d u a d i m e n s i i n i . K e n d a t i h a n y a b e r i s i d u a s e k t o r , m o d e l t e r s e b u t m e m a s u k k a n d i m e n s i w a k t u . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , m o d e l t e r s e b u t m e m u n g k i n k a n k i t a m e n g a ­n a l i s i s d i n a m i k a p e n g g u n a a n l a h a n h u t a n d a l a m k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n p e r u ­b a h a n v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l e k o n o m i d a r i w a k t u k e w a k t u .

247

Boenjamin

B e b e r a p a a l i n e a b e r i k u t a k a n m e m b e r i k a n k e r a n g k a t e o r e t i s m o d e l j ) e n g e n d a l i a n o p t i m a l c a d a n g a n h u t a n y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n o l e h E h u i d a n k a w a n - k a w a n n y a . K e m u d i a n , m o d e l t e r s e b u t a k a n d i t e r a p k a n u n t u k k a s u s B u t a n I n d o n e s i a .

A. Kerangka Teoretis

T u j u a n . s o s i a l n y a a d a l a h u n t u k m e m a k s i m i s a s i u t i l i t a s y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i l a b a a g r e g a t d e n g a n p e m b a t a s p e r u b a h a n c a d a n g a n h u t a n d a r i w a k t u k e w a k t u . L a h a n b e r h u t a n d a n l a h a n b e k a s h u t a n d i a s u m s i k a n m e r u p a k a n s u m b e r l a b a d i m a s a d e p a n . B u t a n d i e k s p l o i t a s i b e r d a s a r k a n r o t a s i o p t i m a l d a n l a h a n b e k a s h u t a n d i a s u m s i k a n d i g u n a k a n s e p e n u h n y a u n t u k t u j u a n p e r t a n i a n .

S e c a r a f o r m a l , m o d e l p e n g e n d a l i a n s e p a n j a n g c a k r a w a l a w a k t u y a n g t a k b e r h i n g g a d i n y a t a k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

oc-

MaxW= Je^\u{Jl{D,F,X)]dt 0

d e n g a n p e m b a t a s :

B ( A F, X) = Pfit). Fit) + [L- Fit)] [Pait) • Z{D, F ( 0 ) -

Fit),X)-Pxit).Xit)] ( 1 )

; F ( < ) = - Z ) ( < ) = 0 i f F ( t ) = 0 (2)

F ( < ) , £)(<), X ( 0 > 0 (3)

> ( 0 ) = 0 , 1 = 1 (4)

D a l a m k a s u s i n i , W m e n c e r m i n k a n n i l a i s e k a r a n g (present value) k e s e j a h t e r a a n s o s i a l ; 6 a d a l a h t i n g k a t d i s k o n t o s o s i a l d a n { / ( • ) a d a l a h f u n g s i u t i l i t a s t u r u n a n k e d u a y a n g t e r g a n t u n g p a d a f u n g s i a g r e g a t . F u n g s i l a b a B d a l a m h a l i n i a d a l a h j u m l a h i m b a l a n b e r s i h b a i k d i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m a u p u n d i s e k t o r k e h u t a n a n ( p e r s a m a a n 2 ) . S e d a n g k a n L a d a l a h j u m l a h s e l u r u h l a h a n y a n g d a p a t d i t a n a m i d a n F ( < ) m e n c e r m i n k a n l a h a n y a n g t e r s e d i a u n t u k h u t a n ( y a i t u c a d a n g a n h u t a n ) , d a n L - Fit) a d a l a h s e l u r u h a r e a u n t u k p e r t a n i a n p a d a w a k t u t. A k h i r n y a , F a ( < ) , Pfit), d a n F x ( t ) m a s i n g - m a s i n g a d a l a h i m b a l a n u n t u k p e r t a n i a n d a l a m k i l o g r a m , i m b a l a n p e r h e k t a r b a g i k e h u t a n a n , d a n b i a y a p e r k i l o g r a m i n p u t y a n g d i b e l i p a d a w a k t u t. I m b a l a n

2 4 8

Deforestreisi dan Isu Pemanfaatan Lahan yang Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

d a n b i a y a i n i d i a s u m s i k a n d i t e n t u k a n s e c a r a e k s o g e n d a l a m p a s a r d u n i a .

H a l p e n t i n g m e n g e n a i f u n g s i l a b a a d a l a h b a h w a i m b a l a n b a g i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t i d a k l i n e a r . S e b a l i k n y a , f u n g s i i n i a k a n m e n g i k u t i k e c e m b u n g a n f u n g s i h a s i l a g r e g a t Z{X(t), D{t),[F(0) - F{t)]). P e n j e l a s a n b a g i k e c e m ­b u n g a n i n i a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : p e r t a m a , f u n g s i h a s i l m e n a i k d a l a m i n p u t y a n g d i b e l i , X{t), d a n l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i s a a t i n i , D{t). E f e k y a n g b e l a k a n g a n d i s e b a b k a n o l e h k a n d u n g a n n u t r i s i a b u h a s i l p e m b a k a r a n h u t a n . D i p i h a k l a i n , h a s i l a k a n m e n u r u n k e t i k a d e f o r e s t a s i k u m u l a t i f [F{0) — F{t)] n a i k . I n i d i s e b a b k a n o l e h h i l a n g n y a p r o d u k t i v i t a s a k i b a t k e n a i k a n e r o s i , h i l a n g n y a n u t r i s i d a n p e r p i n d a h a n p e r l a d a n g a n k e l a h a n y a n g l e b i h m a r j i n a l k e t i k a d e f o r e s t a s i t e r u s b e r l a n g s u n g .

N i l a i s e k a r a n g H a m i l t o n i a n b e r d a s a r k a n m a s a l a h p e n g e n d a l i a n y a n g d i j e l a s k a n d i a t a s a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

HiD, F, X) = U{U(D, F, X)} - rfD (5)

D i s i n i , ip a d a l a h v a r i a b e l b i a y a y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n p e r s a m c i a n ( 3 ) d a n b i s a d i t a f s i r k a n s e b a g a i b i a y a o p o r t u n i t a s c a d a n g a n h u t a n . S e b a g a i m a n a d i k e m u k a k a n o l e h E h u i d a n k a w a n - k a w a n , s o l u s i o p t i m a l m e n s y a r a t k a n b a h w a : ( i ) i n p u t y a n g d i b e l i d i t e r a p k a m p a d a t i t i k y a n g u t i l i t a s m a r j i n a l n y a n o l ; ( i i ) l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i h a r u s d i p i l i h s e d e m i k i a n r u p a s e h i n g g a u l t i l i t a s m a r j i n a l d e f o r e s t a s i s a m a d e n g a n b i a y a o p o r t u n i t a s c a d a n g a n h u t a n ; d a n , ( i i i ) c a d a n g a n h u t a n h a r u s d i m a n f a a t k a n h i n g g a u t i l i t a s m a r j i n a l k e k a y a a n h u t a n s a m a d e n g a n b i a y a s o s i a l k e k a y a a n i n i .

B e r d a s a r k a n k o n d i s i - k o n d i s i i n i , k i t a d a p a t m e m p e r o l e h l a j u p e r u b a h a n t e r h a d a p w a k t u d a l a m l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i s e p a n j a n g j e j a k y a n g o p t i m a l ( o p t i m o / p a < / i ) :

^ = UXXUDD-UDX^-^^^ + ^^^-'^^^^^-''^^^^^

d e n g a n a = UDX/UXX d a n s y a r a t u r u t a n k e d u a (second order condition) u n t u k k e c e m b u n g a n U d a l a m X d a n D m e n s y a r a t k a n UXX — U2DX > 0 , m a k a t a n d a D s e p a n j a n g j e j a k o p t i m a l d i t e n t u k a n o l e h k o n d i s i - k o n d i s i b e r i k u t :

( i ) M o t i f d e f o r e s t a s i : D > 0 , j i k a

6-l[UF-D(UDF-aUXF)]<UD

( i i ) M o t i f k o n s e r v a s i : D > 0, j i k a

6-l[UF-D(UDF-aUXF)]>UD

( 7 )

( 8 )

2 4 9

Boenjeunin

( i i i ) K e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g : D = 0 , j i k a

6-l[UF-D{UDF-aUXF)] = UD ( 9 )

E k s p r e s i 6 — 1 [ • ] h a n y a m e n d e f i n i s i k a n n i l a i s e k a r a n g u t i l i t a s m a r j i n a l h u t a n d a n UD a d a l a h u t i l i t a s m a r j i n a l d e f o r e s t a s i d a l a m p e r i o d e s e k a r a n g . S e l i s i h a n t a r a k e d u a e k s p r e s i [ ( 7 ) , ( 8 ) d a n ( 9 ) ] i n i m e n e n t u k a n a p a k a h m a s y a r a k a t m e m i l i k i . m o t i f d e f o r e s t a s i , k o n s e r v a s i , a t a u k a h k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g .

B . C a d a n g a n h u t a n d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g y a n g o p t i m a l

U n t u k m e n d e r i v a s i k a n s u a t u e k s p r e s i b a g i c a d a n g a n h u t a n d a l a m k e s e i m ­b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g , p e r t a m a - t a m a k i t a h a r u s m e n y a t a k a n f u n g s i h a s i l a g r e g a t Z - F[X,{FQ - F{i))D,TR]. K a r e n a d e r i v a t i f u r u t a n k e d u a d a r i f u n g s i i n i s a n g a t p e n t i n g d a l a m a n a l i s i s , f u n g s i y a n g k i t a s p e s i f i k a s i k a n a k a n b e r b e n t u k f u n g s i k u a d r a t i k :

Zt = 00 + 01 Xt + 02 Dt + 0Z(FO - Ft) + 04TR +

^05 Xt2 + l0O Dt2 + 0-(DT*Xt) ( 1 0 )

P a r a m e t e r - p a r a m e t e r n y a d i h a r a p k a n a k a n b e r t a n d a :

/ ? 0 , ^ 1 , / ? 2 , / ? 4 > 0

03, 05, 06, 07 < 0

B e r d a s a r k a n s p e s i f i k a s i h a s i l a g r e g a t i n i , e k s p r e s i b a g i c a d a n g a n h u t a n d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g d a p a t d i t u l i s k a n s e b a g a i :

F* = FO + g/h + {h-03)A/h ( 1 1 )

d e n g a n ,

g = [{00 + 01 X* + 1/2 05 X*2 + 04 TR*) - PI X*] - P2

h = 6(02 + 07 X*) + 2 03

A9z(L- FO)

PI = Fx/Pa, P2 = Pf/Pa, X* = ( P I - 01)/05,

250

Deforestrasi dan Isu Pemanfaatan Lahan yjuig Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

d a n TR* a d a l a h t i n g k a t t e k n o l o g i d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g .

C . H a s i l E m p i r i s

U n t u k m e n g e s t i m a s i c a d a n g a n h u t a n d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g s e b a g a i m a n a d i n y a t a k a n o l e h f o r m u l a ( 1 1 ) , p a r a m e t e r - p a r a m e t e r d a l a m f u n g s i h a s i l ( 1 0 ) h a r u s d i e s t i m a s i . D a t a u n t u v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l y a n g r e l e v a n u n t u k I n d o n e s i a d i s a j i k a n d a l a m T a b e l 5 .

E s t i m a s i . f u n g s i h a s i l k u s i d r a t i k m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l s e b a g a i b e r i k u t ( s t a t i s t i k t d a l a m k u r u n g ) : I

Z ( < ) = 1 , 0 1 2 9 - h 0 , 0 0 7 2 A ' ( < ) - 0 , 0 0 0 0 8 [ P ( 0 ) - P ( < ) ] + ( 1 2 ) ( 4 4 , 0 4 ) ( - 2 , 4 6 ) ( - 2 . 9 1 )

0 , 0 0 0 1 3 8 2 [ A ( < ) ] 2 - 0 , 0 0 3 7 [X{t) * D ( < ) ] - f - 0 , 0 7 2 TR ( 3 . 9 4 ) ( 1 , 6 2 ) ( 4 , 6 0 )

r 2 = 0 , 9 9 2 F = 3 8 4 , 4 D W = 2 , 2 5

S e b a g a i m a n a y a n g t e l a h d i a n t i s i p a s i , k e n a i k a n d a l a m p e n g g u n a a n p u p u k m e n a i k k a n h a s i l t e t a p i d e n g a n l a j u k e n a i k a n y a n g m e n u r u n . E f e k c a d a n g a n y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n d e f o r e s t a s i k u m u l a t i f b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f s e p e r t i y a n g d i d u g a . B e g i t u p u l a , p e r b a i k a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i p r o k s i d e n g a n t r e n d w a k t u j u g a m e n u m b a n g s e c a r a p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p h a s i l . A k a n t e t a p i , l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i s a a t i n i t i d a k m e n j e l a s k a n v a r i a s i h a s i l . B a r a n g k a l i i n i k a r e n a v a r i a s i h a s i l b a n y a k d i d o m i n a s i o l e h v a r i a s i d a l a m s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n i n t e n s i f d i J a w a . I n i t i d a k a k a n m e m p e n g a r n h i e s t i m a s i k i t a t e n t a n g c a d a n g a n h u t a n d a l a m k e s e ­i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g k a r e n a k i t a d a p a t m e n e t a p k a n 03 = 0 . S t a t i s t i k t s e c a r a s i g n i f i k a n b e r b e d a d a r i n o l p a d a t i n g k a t 5 p e r s e n , k e c u a l i k o e f i s i e n u n t u k [D{t)*X{t)]. R2 m e n d u k u n g m o d e l t e r s e b u t d a n s t a t i s t i k D u r b i n -W a t s o n m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a t i d a k a d a o t o k o r e l a s i s e r i a l .

D . E s t i m a s i C a d a n g a n H u t a n d a l a m K e s e i m b a n g a n J a n g k a P a n j a n g

B e r d a s a r k a n e s t i m a s i f u n g s i h a s i l ( 1 2 ) , c a d a n g a n h u t a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g y a n g s e c a r a s o s i a l o p t i m a l ( F * ) k i n i d a p a t d a p a t d i h i t u n g . H a s i l - h a s i l e s t i m a s i d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a T a b e l 6 . E h u i et. al. ( 1 9 8 9 ) m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a t i d a k a d a a l a s a n u n t u k p e r c a y a s e c a r a p r i o r i b a h w a F* h a r u s b e r a d a a n t a r a F O d a n F 1 9 8 6 k a r e n a F* h a s i l e s t i m a s i t e r g a n t u n g p a d a p e r s a m a a n h a s i l , h a r g a , t i n g k a t d i s k o n t o s o s i a l d a n t i n g k a t t e k n o l o g i y a n g d i d u g a . K a r e n a k e t i g a a l a s a n i n i , c a d a n g a n h u t a n d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g d i e s t i m a s i m e l a l u i s e r a n g k a i a n s i m u l a s i u n t u k p e l b a g a i n i l a i t i n g k a t d i s k o n t o s o s i a l

2 5 1

Tabel 5: Data i n Regression Analysis

Years Agregate Y i e l d a/ Forest Stock b/ F e r t i I i z e r

Index 1.000 ha Kg/ha "

2 ( t ) F ( t ) x ( t )

1968 100.0 117,477 * 8.42

1969 105.0 116,925 14.56

1970 107.4 116,377 14.50

1971 110.0 116,073 * 17.75

1972 111.5 115,770 23.86

1973 110.0 115,468 25.62

1974 121.6 115,166 27.71

1975 122.3 114,866 30.43

1976 129.5 114,566 31.54

1977. 128.1 114,167 40.44

1978 131.7 113,969 41.51

1979 137.4 113,671 48.58

1980 148.2 113,374 * 69.51

1981 160.0 113,077 * 82.27

1982 166.2 112,206 106.72

1983 168.3 111,342 92.59

1984 175.5 110,485 100.89

1985 177.0 109,634 106.64

1986 181.2 108,777 109.53

a/ Data ref e r to r i c e , corn, cassava, sweet potatoes.

Soybeans and peanuts

b/ Knows values of the forest stock are associated with

an a s t e r i s k ( * ) . Other data are estimated based on

estimated deforetation r a t e .

Sources : - Booth, 1988

- Biro Pusat S t a t i s t i k , 1987

- Word Bank. 1990

- FAO, 1981

Deforestrasi daii Isu Pemanfaatan Lahan yemg Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

y a n g b e r b e d a - b e d a , b e r k i s a r a n t a r a 6 = 5 % h i n g g a 6 = 2 1 % .

K o l o m p e r t a m a m e n y a j i k a n n i l a i - n i l a i F* b e r d a s a r k a n h a r g a - h a r g a 1 9 8 4 d a n t i n g k a t t e k n o l o g i . K o l o m I I , d i p i h a k l a i n , m e n u n j u k k a n F* j i k a Pa ( i m b a l a n b a g i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n ) d l g a n d a k a n d a n K o l o m I I I m e n y a j i k a n F* j i k a Pf ( i m b a l a n b a g i s e k t o r k e h u t a n a n ) d i g a n d a k a n .

A n g k a - a n g k a t e r s e b u t m e m b e n a r k a n b a h w a j i k a t i n g k a t d i s k o n t o s o s i a l n a i k , C e i d a n g a n h u t a n y a n g o p t i m a l a k a n t u r u n . I n i b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n p e r s j j e k t i f j a n g k a p a n j a n g m a s y a r a k a t . S u a t u k e n a i k a n d a l a m t i n g k a t d i s k o n ­t o s o s i a l b e r a r t i b a h w a m a s y a r a k a t l e b i h m e n y u k a i m e n g g u n a k a n h u t a n u n t u k k o n s u m s i s e k a r a n g , y a k n i m e r e k a c e n d e r u n g m e n g o n v e r s i k a n h u t a n u n t u k p e r t a n i a n . I n i a k a n m e r a n g s a n g p e n i n g k a t a n m o t i f u n t u k d e f o r e s t a s i .

D i p i h a k l a i n , s u a t u k e n a i k a n d a l a m Pa m e r a n g s a n g p e n u r u n a n c a d a n g a n h u t a n y a n g o p t i m a l . A k i b a t p e n i n g k a t a n i m b a l a n b a g i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n , s e k t o r - s e k t o r p r o d u k s i c e n d e r u n g m e m b e r s i h k a n h u t a n u n t u k m e n a i k k a n p r o d u k s i d i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n , s e h i n g g a m e n g u r a n g i c a d a n g a n h u t a n . S e b a l i k n y a , Pf b e r k a i t a n s e c a r a n e g a t i f d e n g a n t i n g k a t c a d a n g a n h u t a n y a n g o p t i m a l . B e g i t u Pf n a i k , k e g i a t a n d i s e k t o r k e h u t a n a n j u g a t e r a n g s a n g . K a r e n a m o d e l i n i m e n g a s u m s i k a n b a h w a p e m a n f a a t a n h u t a n d i l a k u k a n s e c a r a o p t i m a l ( t i d a k e i d a e k s t e r n a l i t a s ) d a n p a r a p e n e b a n g h u t a n m e m p u n y a i p > e r s p e k t i f j a n g k a p a n j a n g , k e n a i k a n s e k t o r k e h u t a n a n b a h k a n a k a n m e n a i k k a n c a d a n g a n h u t a n . A k i b a t n y a , n i l a i - n i l a i d a l a m b a r i s t e r t e n t u d a l a m T a b e l 6 m e m e n u h i k e t i d a k s a m a a n b e r i k u t : K o l o m I I I > K o l o m I > K o l o m I I .

K e p e k a a n F* t e r h a d a p h a r g a - h a r g a r e l a t i f d a n t i n g k a t d i s k o n t o s o s i a l d a p a t d i l u k i s k a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n h a s i l k o m p a r a t i f k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g :

dF*/dPl = -X*/h>Q (13)

dF*/dP2= - l / / i > 0 (14)

dF*/d6 = {03A-h)i02 + 07 X*)/h2<Q ( 1 5 )

D e n g a n m e n g a s u m s i k a n t i n g k a t t e k n o l o g i k o n s t a n ( 1 9 8 4 ) d a n 6 = 0 , 0 9 , e l a s t i s i t a s - e l a s t i s i t a s ( 1 3 ) , ( 1 4 ) d a n ( 1 5 ) m a s i n g - m a s i n g s a m a d e n g a n 0 , 0 0 0 0 7 , 0 , 0 0 0 1 1 , d a n - 0 , 0 0 3 1 . J a d i , F* t i d a k p e k a t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n d a l a m h a r g a p u p u k d a n i m b a l a n n e t o b a g i k e h u t a n a n , r e l a t i f t e r h a d a p h a r g a b a h a n p a n g a n . K e n d a t i t i d a k p e k a , e l a s t i s i t a s F* t e r h a d a p t i n g k a t d i s k o n t o s o s i a l c e n d e r u n g l e b i h s e n s i t i f k e t i m b a n g k e d u a e l a s t i s i t a s l a i n n y a .

V. K E S I M P U L A N

T u j u a n a r t i k e l i n i a d a l a h ( i ) u n t u k m e n g k a j i b e b e r a p a p a n d a n g a n t e n t a n g m a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i , ( i i ) u n t u k m e n g u j i k e b e r a d a a n b e b e r a p a m a s a l a h

2 5 3

Tabet 6: The Estimates of Steady State Forest Stock

Level in Indonesia ( i n 1,000 ha)

Discount rate

( % )

Steady State Forest

Stock Level */ Discount rate

( % )

(1) ( I I ) ( I I I )

5 1 J U , 0 * + J I c O , J O r 133,199

7 128,601 126,955 . 130,428

9 127,465 126,184 128,887

I t 126,741 125,694 127,905

13 126,239 125,353 127,225

15 125,872 . 125,103 126,726

17 125,590 124,913 126,344

19 125,368 124,761 126,042

21 125,189 124,640 125,798

*/ I - Estimtion by using coustant (1984) p r i c e s and

technology

I I - Pa i s doubled

I I I - Pf i s doubled

Deforestrasi dan Isu Pemanfaat2kn Lahan yang Berkelanjutan di Indonesia

e k o n o m i d i I n d o n e s i a b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i n y a y a n g d e m i k i a n t i n g g i , ( i i i ) u n t u k m e n g u j i m o d e l p e n g e n d a l i a n o p t i m a l t e r h a d a p k e b e r ­l a n j u t a n p e n g g u n a a n l a h a n h u t a n s e b a g a i m a n a y a n g d i u s u l k a n o l e h E h u i ei. al. ( 1 9 8 9 ) d a n m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l i n i u n t u k m e n g e s t i m a s i c a d a n g a n h u t a n d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g d i I n d o n e s i a .

E f e k r u m a h k a c a d a n p e m a n a s a n d u n i a u m u m n y a d i k a i t k a n d e n g a n t i n g g i n y a l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i d i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g . K a u m e n v i ­r o n m e n t a l i s p e r c a y a b a h w a h a n y a p e n d e k a t a n m u l t i l a t e r a l l a h y a n g d a p a t m e n y e l e s a i k a n m a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i . S e b a l i k n y a , p a r a p a k a r e k o n o m i c e n d e ­r u n g m e n g u s u l k a n u n t u k m e n g a m b i l k e b i j a k a n d i t i n g k a t n a s i o n a l u n t u k m e n g a t a s i m a s a l a h i n i . M e r e k a m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a p e m a n a s a n g l o b a l d a n p e n c e m a r a n a t m o s f e r a d a l a h m a s a l a h y a n g m e l i m b a h d a r i m a s a l a h - m a s a l a h n a s i o n a l . M a s a l a h d e f o r e s t a s i h a n y a l a h a k i b a t d a r i , t e r u t a m a , f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g m e r u p a k a n k o m b i n a s i d a r i k e g a g a l a n p a s a r d a n k e g a g a l a n k e b i j a k a n . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , k e b i j a k a n y a n g c e r m a t d a n p e r h a t i a n t e r h a d a p p e r a n g k a t e k o n o m i l e b i h d i p e r l u k a n . K e b i j a k a n - k e b i j a k a n y a n g d i a m b i l h a r u s m a m p u m e n g i n t e r n a l i s a s i s e c a r a e f e k t i f e k s t e r n a l i t a s d a l a m p e m a n f a a t a n h u t a n d a n t i d a k b o l e h b e r l a w a n a n d e n g a n m e k a n i s m e p a s a r .

A d a b e b e r a p a i s u y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n t i n g g i n y a l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i d i I n d o n e s i a , ( i ) A k i b a t t e k a n a n p e n d u d u k , s i k l u s p e r l a d a n g a n b e r p i n d a h m e n j a d i l e b i h p e n d e k . A k h i r n y a , h a l i n i a k a n m e n g a n c a m k e b e r l a n j u t a n p e m a n f a a t a n h u t a n . ( i i ) B u k t i - b u k t i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k e g i a t a n p e n e b a n g a n h u t a n u n t u k k e p e r l u a n k o m e r s i a l b u k a n l a h p e n y u m b a n g t e r b e s a r b a g i t i n g g i n y a l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i , m e l a i n k a n f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n p e r t a n i a n . I n i b e r i m p l i k a s i b a h w a p e r e k o n o m i a n m e n a n g g u n g b i a y a o p o r t u n i t a s y a n g s a n g a t b e s a r . ( i i i ) K o n s e s i H P H y a n g r e l a t i f p e n d e k d a n p a j a k s e r t a r o y a l t i y a n g r e n d a h t e l a h m e r a n g s a n g p e m e g a n g k o n s e s i s w a s t a u n t u k m e m a k s i m i s a s i l a b a j a n g k a p e n d e k . I n i m e n g h a m b a t p r o g r a m p e n g h u t a n a n k e m b a l i d a n k a r e n a i t u m e n y u m b a n g k e p a d a l a j u d e f o r e s t a s i y a n g t i n g g i . ( i v ) D e f o r e s t a s i j u g a b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n k e r u g i a n e k o n o m i a k i b a t d e g r a d a s i l i n g k u n g a n l o k a l , s e p e r t i e r o s i , p e n c e m a r a n a i r , d e g r a d a s i t a n a h , b a n j i r , d a n s e b a g a i n y a . D i p e r k i r a k a n b a h w a b i a y a - b a i a y e k o n o m i a k i b a t e r o s i d i J a w a m e n c a p a i s e k i t a r U S $ 4 0 0 j u t a p e r t a h u n .

D e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l p e n g e n d a l i a n o p t i m a l E h u i , et. ai, a r t i ­k e l i n i m e n g h i t u n g c a d a n g a n h u t a n d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g u n t u k I n d o n e s i a . C a d a n g a n i n i t e r l i h a t n a i k s e j a l a n d e n g a n k e n a i k a n i m b a l a n b a g i s e k t o r k e h u t a n a n d a n t u r u n j i k a i m b a l a n b a g i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n n a i k . A k a n t e t a p i , e s t i m a s i i n i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a c a d a n g a n t e r s e b u t t i d a k p e k a t e r h a d a p t i n g k a t d i s k o n t o s o s i a l d a n h a r g a . j

K e n d a t i m o d e l d i a t a s s a n g a t b e r m a n f c i a t d a l a m m e m b e r i k a n k e r a n g ­k a t e o r e t i s b a g i p r o s e s d e f o r e s t a s i , i a t i d a k m e n j e l a s k a n s e c a r a m e m u a s k a n k e n y a t a a n b a h w a d e f o r e s t a s i d i p e l b a g a i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g a d a l a h a k i b a t d a r i p e r l u a s a n p e r t a n i a n y a n g t e r a n g s a n g t e k a n a n p e n d u d u k . D a l a m k a s u s i n i , b u k a n h a r g a y a n g m e r u p a k a n d e t e r m i n a n u t a m a d e f o r e s t a s i , m e l a i n k a n .

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Boenjeimin 6*. :

b a r a n g k a l i , p e n d a p a t a n l a h y a n g m e r u p a k a n d e t e r m i n a n y a n g l e b i h t e p a t . D a l a m e s t i m a s i k i t a , d i k e l u a r k a n n y a v a r i a b e l i n i d a l a m m o d e l d i a t a s b a r a n g k a l i m e r u a p a k a n j a w a b a n a t a s p e r t a n y a a n m e n g a p a h a r g a t i d a k p e k a t e r h a d a p c a d a n g a n h u t a n o p t i m a l I n d o n e s i a .

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