deforestation driver analysis

8/9/2019 Deforestation Driver Analysis

1/12

DeforestationDriver

Analysis

toAssist

with

Project

Baselines

and

LeakageCalculations


2/12

Eslainteraccindefactoresespacializablesynoespacializables

de forma directa e indirecta que permiten describir los

procesosde

deforestacin

actual

yfutura

en

un

rea

especfica

(FDN,2010).

An

Avoided

Deforestation

project

must

incorporate

these

conceptsintoitsbaselineinordertodefineit.

MexicosNational

Deforestation

Risk

Model

addressed

many

of

these issuesandtheCARWorkgroup isconsideringhow itcan

be used to develop a standardized baseline for Avoided

DeforestationProjects. Thiswillrequireadditionalsteps.

WhatisasystemofDeforestationandhowdoes

theunderstandingofthesysteminfluencea

projectbaseline

?


3/12

INEsDeforestationRiskModel

designed

to

produce

estimates

at

anationallevel

Useofthemodelatthelocal

(project)level

will

require

a

soundanalysisofwhichlocal

spatialvariablesareneeded

?

Modelof

DeforestationRisk

ResultsofModelat

Project

Scale

NeedforDeforestation

DriverAnalysis

NeedforAnalysisofDeforestationDrivers

atLocalizedAreatocalibratedeforestation

modelandimproveleakageestimates


4/12

Step1

IdentifyAllPossibleDriversof

DeforestationinMexico

DevelopinganADProjectBaselineandAssigningLeakageValues

Sector NameofDriver

Agricultural

expansion

Traditionalshiftingcultivation

Shiftingcultivationbycolonists

Permanentsubsistencecultivation

Permanentcommercialcultivation(palm,avocado,rubber,...)

Permanentcultivation

for

agricultural

rural

development

projects

Smallholdercattleranching

Largescalecattleranching

Spontaneoustransmigration

Localtransmigration(resettlement)

Wood

extraction

Staterunwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)

Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)

Growth

coalition

led

wood

extraction

(clearcutting,

selective

harvesting)Illegal(illicit,undeclared)woodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)


Fuelwoodextractionfordomesticuse

Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse

Polewoodextractionfordomesticuse

Polewoodextractionforindustrialuse

Charcoalproductionfordomesticuse

Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse

Infrastructure

extension

Expansionoftransportinfrastructure

Expansionofmarketinfrastructure(foodmarkets,storage,etc.)

Expansionofprivateinfrastructure(sawmills,foodmarkets,etc.)

Expansionofpublicservices(e.g.,water&sanitationfacilities)

(Semi)urbansettlementexpansion

Ruralsettlementexpansion

Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages

Privateenterpriseinfrastructure

hydropowerdevelopment

Examples

Step1a:IdentifyandDescribe

RelationshipsandSequences

Step1b:Developasurvey

methodologytoidentifyhow

thesedrivers

can

be

identified

withindefinedgeographicareas

(states/projectsforexample)


5/12

Step2

DefinetheGeographicBoundaryinWhich

theProjectOperates

Thegeographicboundaryformsthecontextfordefiningthe

projectsbaseline

and

leakage

monitoring.

Forsimplicity,thiscouldbeacoincidentwithstate

boundariesduetojurisdictionalissues. However,maybe

combinedstateswhereecosystems,economies,forestpolicies,

andhighriskofleakageareshared.


6/12

Step3

UsingtheProductofStep1,Identifythe

SuiteofDeforestationDriversWithinDefined

BoundarySector NameofDriver

Agricultural

expansion


Shiftingcultivationbycolonists

Permanentsubsistencecultivation

Permanentcommercial

cultivation

(palm,

avocado,

rubber,...)

Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopmentprojects

Smallholdercattleranching

Largescalecattleranching



Wood

extraction

Staterunwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)

Commercialwood

extraction

(clearcutting,

selective

harvesting)

Growthcoalitionledwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)

Illegal(illicit,undeclared)woodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)


Fuelwoodextractionfordomesticuse


Polewoodextractionfordomesticuse

Polewoodextraction

for

industrial

use

Charcoalproductionfordomesticuse


Infrastructure

extension

Expansionoftransportinfrastructure

Expansionofmarketinfrastructure(foodmarkets,storage,etc.)

Expansionofprivateinfrastructure(sawmills,foodmarkets,etc.)

Expansionofpublicservices(e.g.,water&sanitationfacilities)

(Semi

)urban

settlement

expansionRuralsettlementexpansion

Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages

Privateenterpriseinfrastructurehydropowerdevelopment

Examples

Sector Name

of

Driver

Agricultural

expansion


Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopmentprojects



Wood

extraction




Infrastructure

extension Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages

DeforestationDrivers

WithinJurisdictionX


7/12

Step4

Identify/DevelopDatatoQuantifythe

RelativeContributionofEachofthePotential

DriversWithin

the

Jurisdiction

Ifnodataexists,asurveymustbedevelopedand

implementedto

quantify

the

contributions

Sector Name

of

Driver Available

Data

(example)

Agricultural

expansion

Traditionalshiftingcultivation FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008

Permanentcultivation

for

agricultural

rural

development

projects FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008

Spontaneoustransmigration CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008

Localtransmigration(resettlement) CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2009

Woodextraction

Commercialwood

extraction

(clearcutting,

selective

harvesting) FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008

Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008

Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008

Infrastructure

extension Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008

Example


8/12

Step5

QuantifytheRelativeContributionofEach

ofthePotentialDriversWithintheJurisdiction

Performcausalanalysisofdeforestationdrivers:

To

assist

in

identifying

deforestation

sequencing

Sector Name

of

Driver

RelativeContributionofDrivertoArea

Deforested

Agricultural

expansion

Traditionalshifting

cultivation 5%

Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopment

projects 5%

Spontaneoustransmigration 15%

Localtransmigration(resettlement) 45%

Woodextraction

Commercialwood

extraction

(clearcutting,

selective

harvesting) 20%

Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse 3%

Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse 2%

Infrastructure

extensionExpansionofmilitarydefensevillages 5%

Example


9/12

Step5

QuantifytheRelativeContributionofEach

ofthePotentialDriversWithintheJurisdiction

Performcausalanalysisofdeforestationdrivers:Toassistinidentifyingrelationshipsofdriversandsequencing

Describeeach

driver

in

terms

of:

Whoisdoingthedeforestation.

Whytheyaredoingthedeforestation.

Wherearetheydoingthedeforestation.

Forwhomaretheydoingthe

deforestation.

Spatialscaleofdriver.

Directandindirectimpactsofdriver.

Potentialfor

leakage.

Prevention/mitigationopportunitiesfor

driver.

Identifytheleakagepotentialofeachdriver


10/12

Step6

AnalyzetheSpatialRestrictionsand

MobilityofEachoftheDrivers


11/12

Step7

IdentifyHowtheProjectAddresses

DeforestationDrivers

Combinedwiththeleakageanalysis,aleakageriskforeach

projectcanbeassigned.


12/12

Step8 WithSpatialDriversIdentified,Local

VariablescanbeUsedtoCalibrateINEs

DeforestationRisk

Within

the

Geographic

BoundaryandExtrapolatedtotheProjectLevelas

aPredictor

of

Deforestation

Rates

Into

the

Future

deforestation driver analysis

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