deighton user group conference bowmanville, 10-14 july, 2000
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
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Deighton User Group Conference
Bowmanville, 10-14 July, 2000
New Zealand National Implementation of dTIMS
Our Approach and Experiences
Gordon HartMaintenance EngineerTransit New Zealand, NAPIER
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Coverage• Background• Integrated Business Systems• Project Objectives• Project Development• Project Management• Implementation• Project Deliverables• Where we are up to• Some things we have learned• Some things we need
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New Zealand ?
All of the graphic files
removed to make the
presentation small enough
to email
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Unique Asset Management Challenges
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New Zealand Roading AssetsFunction Sealed km Unsealed
kmTotal km
StateHighway
10347 117 10464
LocalUrban
14867 491 15358
Local Rural 30641 35402 66043
Roads
TotalLength
55855 36010 91865
TotalBridges
Total Lengthkm
Single Laned TimberBridges
3525 116 205 28
The public road network in New Zealand would wrap around the world 2 ¼ times
We are dealing with a substantial network
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Many roads
Small population
Leads to
Thinly distributed income
An issue of scale
Population 3,581,000
Land Area 610 sq km
Population 3,702,000
Land Area 268,670 sq km
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New Zealand is
• Geologically VERY young– Many difficult soils
• Geologically VERY variable– Many different subgrade conditions– Many different construction materials
• Environmentally variable– Many different climatic zones
A modelling nightmarechallenge
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New Zealand RoadsNew Zealand Roads
• Lightweight, low strength pavements• Lightly trafficked• Crushed rock chip sealed
pavements that are very sensitive to moisture content
• Timely and regular maintenance is required to avoid the need for disproportionate future expenditure
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Roading Administration in New Zealand
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State Highway Management Structure
T RANSFUNDNEW ZEALAND
T RANSIT NEWZEALAND
M INIST ER OFT RANSPORT
Responsible for road funding
Responsible for management of State Highways
One of74
RCA’s
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RCA Development Cooperative
State Highways
• Transit New Zealand
Local Roads• 74 Road
Controlling Authorities
RIMS Group
• Roading Information Management Systems Best Practice Group
AssetManagement
Systemsandbest
practice
AppointedRepresentatives
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Delivery (Acquisition)
Traditional PSMC
Predictive modelling used to:
• manage the client risk
• determine investment strategy
Predictive modelling used to:
• assess the contractual risks
• compare merits of bids
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Some ingrained NZ Asset Management Principles
(that we have had to comply with)
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Economic Imperatives
1 Economics rules
2 Economics rules
3 Economics rules
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Investment Criteria
• Benefit-Cost Ratio– Differential in user
costs
Divided by – Differential in capital
costs • Offset by maintenance
cost differential
• Net Present Value– Not targeting user
benefits
BUT– Agency costs would
be reduced by the application of investment
More than 70% of the national State Highway programme is subject to some form of benefit
cost analysis
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Competing Initiatives
Service Level
• Maximise condition• Minimise user costs
Cost Effective Life Cycle
• Minimise agency costs
• Minimising the total ownership costs accrued over the life of the asset
We were lucky!Ideally suited to TTC analysis
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Routine Maintenance
• Do nothing is NEVER an option
• In international terms, New Zealand employs a very high standard of routine maintenance intervention– If it breaks, we fix it– Deterioration is disguised
• Do minimum is the least cost option required to maintain the service level
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Treatments, Triggers and Resets
ASSETCONDITION
EXCELLENT
POOR TIME
Minimum Acceptable Standard(TRIGGER)
Decay in Condition(DETERIORATION)
Treatment Applied
ConditionImprovement(RESET)
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Maintenance Cost Management
$ perKILOMETRE
TIME
COST DEVELOPMENT CURVE
AWT/Routine MaintenanceECONOMIC BREAK POINT
OPTIMALINTERVENTION
POINT
HOLDINGMIS APPLIED
THESE COSTSAREAVOIDED
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ExistingInventory
(about 12 years old)
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Existing Inventory - RAMM Assets• Pavement Structure• Surfacings• Shoulders & SWC• Signs• Culverts• Minor Structures• Markings• Railings• Traffic Facilities• Features
Demand• Traffic• Loading• (Environmental)
Condition• Roughness• Rutting• Shoving• Texture• Scabbing• Cracking• Skid• (Deflection)
Work• Rehabilitation• Maintenance Work
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Models and KPI’s
Complex Indices• Surface Integrity Index• Maintenance Cost
Index
Models• Roughness• Rutting• Texture• Cracking• Potholes• Ravelling
Performance Indices
• Remaining Seal Life• Remaining Service
Life (These are utilised
principally to control asset consumption in PSMC situations.)
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Location Reference
• Longitudinal SH - RS - Displacement
e.g. 2 / 244 / 1.45
Data Element Location Method/Length
Note
Assets Start and/or end Position Offset frombaseline
Condition
Manual
500 metre sections sampled 10 % each Only reallycracking left
Condition
High Speed
Continuous summed to 100 metresections
Annual totalnetwork survey
Treatment Lengths Start – End Positions
Varying lengths
Condition datasummarised to
Treatment Length
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Treatment Length
• The unit at which work will be executed (intervention applied)
“A uniformly performing section of pavement that is performing differently to the sections either side”
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Asset Management Plan
Project Management
Funding Management
Asset Management
Performance Management
Financial Management
Inventory of Assets and the Condition of them
TreatmentIntelligence
DeterministicProbabilistic
Fund AllocationModel
Project RankingProject
Justification(Year 1)
ContractedPerformanceAchievement
ConditionAchievement
Trend Analysis
ForwardWork
ProgrammeAnnual
Plan
ProjectManagement
System
Business Practice ModelBusiness Practice Model
Maintenance Intervention
Strategy
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Computer tools are only one input
We are not trying to replace expert knowledge
Inventory andCondition Data
FieldInspection…..
Optimised WorkProgramme
ComputerAnalysis….
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Principal Objectives• Single nationally controlled model
• Fully integrated into accepted asset management systems
• Co operative development (pool of resources)
• Upskill the entire industry (Client, Consultant and Contractor)
• Transfer ownership
• Sustainable
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Development Principles
• Coordinated– principal consultant with key technical
responsibility
• Pragmatic– Progress not perfection
• Simplicity– Keep it simple– Sophistication only when timely– Depth of the ocean not height of the waves
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Developed in 3 phases Phase I Preliminary System
• First cut setup
• Limited calibration
• Sort data issues
• Training
• Motivation
• Custom software
• Pavement strength issues
• Launch for familiarisation
• Extensive documentation
Phase II Refinement
• Refined setup
• Refined models
• More calibration
• Training
• Documentation perfection
• Research needs assessment
• Support (help desk)
Phase III Further refinement
• Capture HDM 4
• Ongoing support
• Further calibration
• Model control and audit procedures
• Research support
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Success Factors
• Experienced team - drew on appropriate international expertise
• Drove pragmatism very hard
• Maintained simplicity• e.g. treatment strategies
Dr. Christopher R. Bennett.
Mr. Theuns Henning
Dr. Nabin Pradhan
Dr Gustav Rhode
Mr. Mike Riley
Mr. Doug Wilson
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Development ExpectationIntellectual Data
AppropriatenessResearch Operational
AdoptionDevelopment of theability to use the tools(training, up skilling)
Condition andinventory datasuitable for modelling
Refinement ofmodels based onappropriate data
Controlmechanisms,consumption andutilisation ofoutputs
Principles Understood
Developingunderstanding
Ability to interpretoutputs
Most datainappropriate
Sensitivitiesunderstood
Changed collectionand QA principles
Appropriate databecoming available
Research based oninappropriate data
(concerned withprinciples)
Model refinementcapability based onappropriate data
Principlesunderstood
Controlmechanismsestablished
Managementmethodologies can
absorb outputs
Outputs used insetting policy
True Modelling Capability
Ongoing Refinement
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Functional Relationships
RIMS GroupProject Owner
Deighton AssSoftware
HTC LtdImplementation
TransfundPolicy
RCA’sUsers
Contractual
Functional
License
Support
Sales
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Software Setup
1999 RIMS
1 5 -10
Economic Analysis Period
Performance Analysis Period
Every treatment on every treatmentlength is triggered
every year
Generate only what is needed to achieve standard
Performance Analysis Period
Trigger anything to satisfy standardPerformance Analysis
Economic + Performance Analysis
IssueWe trigger all treatments
on need not strategyTHEN
we optimise the strategies(there are no
predefined strategies)
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Typical run times
• Years 1 to 10 every treatment in every year• Years 11 to 20 performance based• 700km• 1709 sections• generating 36 strategies per section• about 10 functions and resets• 4.5 hours to generate• 20 minutes to optimise• pentuim III 550mhz 128mb RAMM
We find this quiteacceptable
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Implementation Model
AssetInventory(RAMM)
Ad HocData
(Specialised)
StrengthProgramme
(Assign SN)
InterfaceProgramme(Data Conversion)
dt2699File
RIMSStandard
Setup
LocallyCalibrated
Setup
dTIMSPerformance &
EconomicAnalysis
ReporterProgramme
CalibrationStandards
StandardisedOutputs
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Intellectual
• Sustainable training programme• Asset Management• Software• Setup• Data issues
• Three tiered• Management - Understanding• Technician - Operation• Expert - Calibration
• Extensively documented
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Data
• Conversion of existing condition data
• Long term move to more appropriate data
• e.g. Rutting data (length -> depth)
• Provision of flow charts to assess missing data
• Focussed initially on key sensitivities
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Strength Determination
• Horses for courses
• In increasing degrees of sophistication– Typical Pavement Design Method– ARRB Method– Benkleman Beam Method– CBR Layer Method– FWD without Layer Thickness Method– FWD with Layer Thickness Method
• Software developed to ease the pain
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Converting Data
RAMMDatabase dT2699
StrengthProgramme
Other Data
Interface
programme
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You don’t have to be a rocket scientist1.
We want the tools used as a matter of course by the every day practitioner !
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Industry Awareness
• Develop life cycle asset management expertise
• Application of the principles as a matter of course by the average practitioner
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Software
dTIMS InterfaceSoftware
StrengthProgramme
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Calibrated Setup
• Initially pragmatic
• Ongoing refinement and calibration
• Meeting set requirements– NZ economic approach– International state of the art– flexible (it can grow with us)– etc
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Documentation
• dTIMS manual
• Three volume domestic manuals– Technical Reference Manual
• How it all works
– Software users guide• For the NZ software
– Using the system and tutorials• dTIMS idiots guide• Worked examples
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Training Package
• Sustainable
• Develop programme
• Develop delivery capability
• Delivery
• Covers• Pavement management principles• dTIMS
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Research Coordination
• Identify needs
• Vet proposals
• Assist with steering projects
• Support academic researchers
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Status
• Most RCA’s have brought in
• Phase I delivered June 1999
• Phase II rolling out now
• Phase III commissioned
• Awareness achieved (extensive training)
• Enthusiasm abounds
• Setup and models proving reasonable
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Issues
• A lot of calibration yet to pass
• Data deficiencies yet to be corrected
• Some knowledge yet to be gained
• We need more days in the year
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(Key success factors)
• Recognise the limitations
• Set realistic goals/expectations
• Progress not perfection (pragmatism)
• Keep it simple– Success if RESURFACING predicted in Y10
• Its only a tool not an answer
Retain Reality
Remember - Our profession is more artistic than scientific
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Calibration
Benchmark
Customisation
Calibration
Research
LTPP
Reasonableness Checking
Calibration Coefficients
Setup Change
New models & model forms
Verify models (long term)
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Integration
• Providing an integrated solution is essential
• MUST ensure that data conversion and assignment of defaults is simplified
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Priority Enhancement Needs Type A• Option to define which is the base
strategy• Exclude maintenance only strategy• Optimisation based on IBC and NPV Type B• Exogenous benefits for treatment types• Budget categories for treatments or road
sections
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Option to define the base strategy
• Do nothing is not an option in N.Z.
• Routine maintenance will always be executed
• Does not affect the analysis BUT makes reporting cumbersome
• Using post processing software at present (MESSY)
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Exclude Maintenance only strategy
• Do Nothing and Maintenance and Periodic are the defaults
• M&P is often more than required (low use roads)
• Because it is automatically selected on the efficiency frontier it disguises treatments that may be more economic
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Optimisation based on IBC and NPV
• We cannot currently optimise on NPV
• A network could contain both conditions:– treatment justified by user benefits (IBC)– Intervention would optimise agency costs
(NPV)
• Requirement - if IBC < limit, check for minimum cost strategy (present value of agency costs)
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Exogenous benefits for treatment types
• Similar to delay cost option
• Need to be able to weight treatments based on benefits not calculated by dTIMS e.g. :– Traffic safety– Environmental impacts
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Budget categories defined for treatments or road sections
• Currently different parts of a network with different budget constraints must be treated in separate optimisation runs
• For example, the urban and rural sections separately budgeted
• Need to be able to define budgets for parts of network as well as treatments
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