deloitte belgium cfo survey report outlook 2019 edition · 2020-05-18 · cfo survey | outlook 2019...

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Deloitte Belgium CFO Survey ReportOutlook 2019 Edition

CFO Survey | Outlook 2019 Edition

Outlook 2019: Fasten seatbelts

This is the 10th anniversary edition of the Deloitte Belgian CFO survey. The first survey was published in 2009 in the aftermath of the global financial, monetary and economic crisis. Since - and 40 quarters in a row - the CFO survey has delivered the voice of the CFO to a wide range of policy makers and the media. The survey not only gauges the views of the finance community on financial and economic topics, but more importantly provides insights into the impact of these on key priorities and planned actions. In this way, the survey allows you to benchmark your views with those of your peers.

Turning from all sides, there is not really a positive angle to interpret the results of this 10th anniversary Outlook edition of the survey. Whereas one year ago CFOs were quite optimistic about the financial prospects of their organisations and expected a continuation of the prosperous 2017 into 2018, the mood has reversed. All of the survey’s key indicators have turned red. Readers of the survey saw it coming: optimism indicators had gone down quarter after quarter in the past year. But today, we have reached the lowest level since 2013. Although expansionary strategies remain on top of the agenda for just over half of our survey respondents, defensive strategies are most important for 45%, up from only 15% last year. And whereas investment plans had so far not been affected by the lower optimism, capital expenditure and headcount growth projections plunged in the last quarter.

Uncertainty has increased. Many of the CFOs last year’s concerns have materialised, while the consequences and likely negative impact on the business environment are only just starting to surface: we are more than ever heading towards a hard Brexit, protectionist economics is spreading and global growth is showing signs of a slowdown.

Specifically for Belgium, the current political instability and the upcoming federal and regional elections might influence or potentially reverse the financial and economic policy making of the Michel I government that was overall appreciated amongst the CFO community.

CFOs expect turbulence and tighten their seatbelts. Competitiveness moves back to the top of the concerns, while cost control and efficiency move up the business priority list. Notwithstanding this, CFOs budgeted on average growth for their businesses that is significant above the growth projections for the economy. The way in which international political and economic discussions will unwind in the months to come, will influence to a significant extent if these forecasts will be met.

I hope you will find the insights from your peers presented in this report interesting, and look forward to welcoming you as a survey participant to the next edition of the survey in March. I look forward to delivering also your views!

Thierry Van SchoubroeckPartner

Click on the dashboard frames to see a detailed overview


The macroeconomic backdrop to the Deloitte Outlook 2019

Global activity slowed in the last quarter and the IMF downgraded its global growth forecasts for this year and the next.

Equity markets sold off in December due to worries over the shutdown. The S&P 500 fell almost a fifth from its October peak, before regaining its footing in January. US activity remained robust in the fourth quarter, but a 35-day partial government shutdown at the beginning of this year is expected to have hit growth. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December to 2,5% but has adopted a dovish tone so far this year, putting further rate rises on hold.

The escalation in US-China trade tensions seems to have abated as trade talks continue between the two nations. Chinese activity continued to slow, with full-year growth hitting a 28-year low in 2018. Chinese authorities responded with monetary and fiscal easing.

Economic data from the euro area also weakened in the fourth quarter and Italy fell into recession in the second half of last year. The European Central Bank ended its €2,5tn quantitative easing programme in December. In the UK uncertainty over Brexit grew, with the government failing to win support in Parliament for its transition deal agreed with the EU.

Ian Stewart, Deloitte UK Chief Economist

Deloitte CFO survey Outlook 2019 Dashboard

Economic outlook/growth

Hiring new talent

Financing options

Bank borrowing availability

Attractiveness bank borrowings

Bank borrowing costliness

Attractiveness corporate debt

Interest rate evolution

Attractiveness equity

Financial leverage Attractiveness internal financing

Business priorities

Expansionary focus

Top 3 CFOs’ priorities:

1. Increasing productivity/ efficiency

2. Ongoing cost control3. Organic growth

Capital expenditure growth

Headcount growth

Discretionary spending

Policies

Appropriateness of financial and economic policies

General environment

Optimism

Top 3 CFOs’ concerns:

1. Economic outlook/growth

2. Competitive position in the market

3. Changes in regulation

Economic uncertainty

Risk appetite

Turnover growth

Belgian economic growth

For the Outlook 2019 edition we present the key

CFO Survey indicators comparing the results from

Q4 2018 with Q4 2017.


Historical context to 10 years of the Deloitte CFO SurveyWe have been running the Deloitte CFO Survey for the last 10 years. Plotted below are some historical events in concurrence with CFO optimism. We hope this provides some relevant context.

Mor

e O

ptim

istic

Less Optim

istic

Opt

imis

m

20-JAN-2009Inauguration

Barack Obama

12-JAN-2010Haiti

earthquake

MAY-2010Start of 1th

Greek bailout package

MAR-2011Start Syrian

civil war

03-APR-2010Launch

Apple Ipad

11-OCT-2011End of 541 days

of Belgian government formation SUMMER 2012

London Olympics

MAR-2012Start of 2nd


JUN-2013Snowden NSA leaks

MAR-2014Annexation of Crimea

11-OCT-2014Formation

Michel I government

JUL-2015Start of 3rd


22-03-2016Brussels bombing

23-06-2016Brexit vote

SUMMER 2016Rio Olympics

4-11-2016Paris climate

agreement

20-07-2017Iraqi forces

retake Mosul

OCT-2017#MeToo

movement goes global

AUG-2018End of Greek

bailout package

Q3-2018Apple and Amazon

(briefly) pass $ 1 trillion

market cap

20-JAN-2017Inauguration Donald Trump

21-07-2013Ascension

King Philippe

FEB-2014West Africa

Ebola outbreak

02-JUL-2012Discovery

Higgs boson


Outlook 2019: Key Financial Metrics At the end of 2017 CFOs were positive about the prospects of their organisations. Expectations about key financial metrics had steadily improved over previous years. This provided assurance that 2018 would be a solid year for business.

At the end of 2018, however, CFO confidence has worsened for all reported business metric. The positive trend has reversed, providing another indication that 2019 will likely fall behind on its preceding year.

Revenue growth expectations

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2016

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2015

Q4

2015

Q3

2015

Q2

2015

Q1

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Revenues

12 Month Rolling

Operating margins growth expectations

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2016

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2015

Q4

2015

Q3

2015

Q2

2015

Q1

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Revenues

12 Month Rolling

Profit before taxes expectations

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2016

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2015

Q4

2015

Q3

2015

Q2

2015

Q1

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Revenues

12 Month Rolling

%

Capital expenditure growth expectations

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2016

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2015

Q4

2015

Q3

2015

Q2

2015

Q1

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Revenues

12 Month Rolling

Headcount growth expectations

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2016

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2015

Q4

2015

Q3

2015

Q2

2015

Q1

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Revenues

12 Month Rolling


Things to watch out for in 2019

Financial and economic policy making

• CFOs have in general been positive about the Michel I government sworn in at the end of 2014. The current political crisis, upcoming federal and regional elections and ensuing government formations risk halting or reversing the financial and economic policy reform.

• Environment and climate policy is set to shape the Belgian political landscape in 2019. Balancing growth and sustainability will be a challenging but necessary duty for corporations and policy makers.

• CFOs continue to list Labour market and Taxation policy as most important for the long-term success of businesses in Belgium. On average CFOs report a -11% net-appreciation of current Labour market policy. Opinions are balanced on Taxation policy, with 39% of survey respondents expressing a positive view compared to 39% expressing a negative view.

Shortage of skilled Labour

• Shortage of skilled labour remains a top concern for CFOs, with 82% reporting they are at least somewhat concerned about their ability to attract and retain the talent they need.

• 55% of CFOs still expect headcount to (further) increase over the next 12 months, with just 11% planning to decrease their labour force.

• The European Commission projects the Belgian unemployment rate at 6,4% for 2018 and this is expected to drop to 6,1% in 2019.

International events

Corporates face uncertainty created by many international events with unclear or unpredictable outcomes, that could influence their business prospects. A non-exhaustive list:• Brexit, a hard Brexit looms. What will be the impact on Belgian businesses?• European Parliament elections; as well as important elections in Poland,

Switzerland, Spain, Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Denmark, Ukraine and Slovakia• The world’s largest economy is faced with a split congress and ongoing US-China

trade tensions pose a risk to the global economy• Russia-West relationships• The Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict

Economic Slowdown

• Governmental and intergovernmental institutions project economic slowdowns at global level, European level and for the Belgian economy.

• Global economic expansion is expected to slow down from 3,7% in 2018 to 3,5% in 2019 (IMF projections). WTO projects a slowdown of global trade in the second half of 2018 that will continue in 2019.

• In Europe Italy has entered a recession after 2 consecutive quarters of economic decline at the end of 2018 while Germany has reduced its economic forecast for 2018. Growth in the Euro Area is expected to drop from 2.1% in 2018 to 1.9% in 2019.

• According to the Belgian National Bank real GDP growth in Belgium is expected to slow down to 1,4% in 2019.

CFO Survey | Fourth quarter 2017 Edition

General environment

Optimism


Risk appetite

Turnover growth


Concerns

Actuals performance vs. budget


“ Pessimism outweighs optimism ”M

ore

optim

istic

Less

opt

imis

tic

Net % of CFOs who are more/less optimistic about the financial prospects for their company

'11 Q1

'11 Q2

'11 Q3

'11 Q4

'12 Q1

'12 Q2

'12 Q3

'12 Q4

'13 Q1

'13 Q2

'13 Q3

'13 Q4

'14 Q1

'14 Q2

'14 Q3

'14 Q4

'15 Q1

'15 Q2

'15 Q3

'15 Q4

'16 Q1

'16 Q4

'17 Q1

'17 Q2

'17 Q3

'17 Q4

'18 Q1

'18 Q2

'18 Q3

'18 Q4

'16 Q3

'16 Q2

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

8%

-13%

11%

37%38%

49% 48%

34%

20%

6%

-4%

-16%

26%

8%

-34%

-42%

-27%

-11%

-29%

-15%

34%30%

39%35%

8% 9%

23%24% 23%27%

12%12%


General environment

Optimism


Risk appetite

Turnover growth


Concerns



“ Uncertainty is rising again ”

% CFOs rating the general level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their business as high

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

'18 Q4

'18 Q3

'18 Q2

'18 Q1

'17 Q4

'17 Q3

'17 Q2

'17 Q1

'16 Q4

'16 Q3

'16 Q2

'16 Q1

'15 Q4

'15 Q3

'15 Q2

'15 Q1

'14 Q4

'14 Q3

'14 Q2

'14 Q1

'13 Q4

'13 Q3

'13 Q2

'13 Q1

'12 Q4

'12 Q3

'12 Q2

50% 50%

44%

33%

85% 85%

77%

22%

24% 25%

30%

39% 43%

53%

82%79%

66% 63%

77%

63% 60%

56%

49%

54%

69%

56%

49%


General environment

Optimism


Risk appetite

Turnover growth


Concerns



“ Risk appetite is dwindling ”

% of CFOs who think now is a good time to be taking greater risk onto their balance sheets

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

31%

39%

41%

69%

52%

45%41%

37%

21%

45%41%

35%35%

19%14%

19%24%

22%

13%

30%

8%

21% 21%

35%

41%

33%

40%38%

42% 44%

36% 39%

23%

'17 Q3

'17 Q4

'18 Q1

'18 Q2

'18 Q3

'18 Q4

'17 Q2

'17 Q1

'16 Q4

'16 Q3

'16 Q2

'16 Q1

'15 Q4

'15 Q3

'15 Q2

'15 Q1

'14 Q4

'14 Q3

'14 Q2

'14 Q1

'13 Q4

'13 Q3

'13 Q2

'13 Q1

'12 Q4

'12 Q3

'12 Q2

'12 Q1

'11 Q4

'11 Q3

'11 Q2

'11 Q1

'10 Q4

CFO Survey | Fourth quarter 2017 EditionCFO Survey | Outlook 2019 Edition

General environment

Optimism


Risk appetite

Turnover growth


Concerns


“ 8 out of 10 CFOs expect their turnover to grow in 2019 ”

How do you expect your turnover/top-line to evolve over the next 12 months?

7% 18%3%

1%

7% 29% 36%

Decrease between 2% and 5%


Same level

Increase between 0% and 2%


Increase with more than 5%Decrease with more than 5%


General environment

Optimism


Risk appetite

Turnover growth


Concerns



“ Belgian economic growth expectations are lower for 2019 than they were for 2018”

12%21%

48%

19%

What do you expect the economic growth in Belgium to be?

1% to 1,4%0% to 0,9% 1,5% to 1,9% 1,9% to 2,5%


General environment

Optimism


Risk appetite

Turnover growth


Concerns



“ Concerns about Economic growth and competitive

position in the market ”

CFO business concerns over the next 12 months

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Not a concernSomewhat of a concernStrong concern

1%

7%

7%

8% 45%

10%

15%

16%

61%18%

19% 55%

59%23%

26% 57%

46%28%

31%

33% 58%

46%

22%

54%

41%

40%

23%

23%

41%

75%

70%

52%

47%

51%

31%

43%

26%

18%

18%

26%

23%

8%Economic outlook/growth

Competitive position in the market

Changes in regulation

Eurozone stability

Shortage of (skilled) labour

Current geopolitical risks

European Union Stability

Euro exchange rate

Impact of Belgian financial & economic policy making

China's slow-down

Increasing sovereign risk

Inflation risk

Access to capital/funding

Deflation risk


General environment

Optimism


Risk appetite

Turnover growth


Concerns



“ Two thirds report performing on or above budget in 2018”

Comparison of the surveyed organisations' actuals performance versus budget

‘13Q4

‘14Q1

‘14Q2

‘14Q3

‘14Q4

‘15Q1

‘15Q2

‘15Q3

‘15Q4

‘16Q1

‘16Q2

‘13Q3

‘16Q3

‘16Q4

‘17Q1

‘17Q2

‘13Q1

‘13Q2

‘17Q3

‘17Q4

‘18Q1

‘18Q2

‘18Q3

‘18Q4

Worse than expectedAs expectedBetter than expected

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Net %

38%

57%

47%

54% 52%

32%

32%

35%

45%30%

30% 36%

38%

41%

30%

30%

32%

44%

21%

41%

29%

30% 30%

37%

39%

30%

31%

20%

39% 36%36%

31%

33%

30% 50%

24%25%

21%

40%

48%

29%

62%

27%

17%8%

18%22%

15%

27%

40%

30%31%

29%

37%32%

33%33% 37%

35%

24%32%

42%

28%

35%

24%40%

33%

31% 27% 26%

33%

35%

-49%

-29%

-32%

-37%

-5%

8%

-5%

-13%

-9%

6%

-4%-5%

-9%

7%

-5%

-17%

-4%

-10%

10%

17%

11%

4%

-3%-1%


“ Attention on productivity and cost control ”

CFO business priorities over the next 12 months

Not a prioritySomewhat of a priorityStrong priority

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

14%

17%

19%

7%

4%

7%

82%

76%

74%

21%8% 70%

47%

55%

23%

32%

93%

12%

23%

7%

14%

4%

4%

3%

39%

31%

62%

63%

68%

24%

35%

28%

57%

62%

30%

49%

46%

27%

38%

42%

26%

45%

38%

36%

45%

16%

18%

32%

19%

Increasing productivity/efficiency

On-going cost control

Organic Growth

Introducing new products/services

Digitalisation

Increasing cash flow

Hiring new talent

Expanding into new markets

Increasing focus on sustainability programmes

Increasing capital expenditure (CAPEX)

Reducing leverage

Expanding by acquisition abroad

Expanding by acquisition in Belgium

Increasing operating expenditure (OPEX)

Disposing of assets

Raising dividends or share buy backs

Economic outlook/growth

Competitive position in the market

Changes in regulation

Eurozone stability

Shortage of (skilled) labour

Current geopolitical risks

European Union Stability

Euro exchange rate

Impact of Belgian financial & economic policy making

China's slow-down

Increasing sovereign risk

Inflation risk

Access to capital/funding

Deflation risk

Business priorities

Priorities

Capex, headcount and discretionary spending

Capex expectations

Metrics


“ All investment indicators declined ”

Net % of CFOs who expect Belgian corporates' capital expenditure,headcount, and discretionary spending to increase over the next 12 months

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Capital Expenditure Headcount Discretionary Spending

20% 22%

11%

14%

13%

33% 32%

39%

45%41%

57% 57%63%

51%50%

48%

14%

35%

36%25%

46%

9%

27%

53%

49%

50%

67%

44%48%

37%

19%

11%

56%

12%

2%

20%

11%

30%32%

-7%

2%

28%30%

6%

17%

-11%

0%-5%

5%0%

-9%

‘14Q4

‘15Q1

‘15Q2

‘15Q3

‘15Q4

‘16Q1

‘16Q2

‘16Q3

‘16Q4

‘17Q1

‘17Q2

‘17Q3

‘17Q4

‘18Q1

‘18Q2

‘18Q3

‘18Q4

Business priorities

Priorities


Capex expectations

Metrics


“ Just over half of CFOs plan for capital expenditure increases over the next 12 months ”

Capital Expenditures expectations

7% 24%35%4% 15%16%

Increase with more than 10%


Increase between 1% and 5%Decrease between more than 10%


Same level

Business priorities

Priorities


Capex expectations

Metrics


CFOs' expectations on the evolution of the following metrics in the next 12 months

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

DecreaseThe sameIncrease

52% 33% 15%

25% 56% 19%

53% 34% 13%

61% 19% 19%

60% 19% 21%

24% 65% 11%

32% 47% 21%

58% 19% 22%

53% 30% 16%

82% 7% 11%Revenues

Operating Cashflow

Levels of Cash and cash equivalents equivalents on balance sheet

Profit before taxes

Operating margins

Headcount

Operating costs

Financing costs

Discretionary spending, for instance on travel,training and marketing

Inventory levels

Business priorities

Priorities


Capex expectations

Metrics


% of CFOs who want to increase the usage of resources

0

20

40

60

80

100

Using internal financingRaising bank borrowingsRaising corporate debtRaising equity

28% 39% 49% 83%

Financing options

Usage of resources

Availability and cost of credit

Interest rates

Euro


Net % of CFOs reporting the availability and cost of credit

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Available Costly

‘13Q4

‘14Q1

‘14Q2

‘14Q3

‘14Q4

‘15Q1

‘15Q2

‘15Q3

‘15Q4

‘16Q1

‘16Q2

‘13Q3

‘16Q3

‘16Q4

‘17Q1

‘17Q2

‘13Q1

‘13Q2

‘17Q3

‘17Q4

‘18Q1

‘18Q2

‘18Q3

‘18Q4

‘12Q4

‘11Q4

‘12Q1

‘12Q2

‘12Q3

‘11Q3

‘11Q1

‘11Q2

‘10Q3

‘10Q1

‘10Q2

‘10Q4

Financing options

Usage of resources


Interest rates

Euro


“ The consensus on the direction of interest rates is fading ”

Net % of CFOs expecting interest rates to increase in the next 12 months

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

32%

55%

48%

54%

38%

29%

46%

54%

81%

45%

47%

36%

30%

14%

20%

69%

51%

61%

40%

26%

43%

85%85%

77%

93%

90%89%

72%

88%

83%

‘13Q4

‘14Q1

‘14Q2

‘14Q3

‘14Q4

‘15Q1

‘15Q2

‘15Q3

‘15Q4

‘16Q1

‘16Q2

‘13Q3

‘16Q3

‘16Q4

‘17Q1

‘17Q2

‘13Q1

‘13Q2

‘17Q3

‘17Q4

‘18Q1

‘18Q2

‘18Q3

‘18Q4

‘12Q4

‘11Q4

‘12Q1

‘12Q2

‘12Q3

‘11Q3

Financing options

Usage of resources


Interest rates

Euro


35%

65%

% of CFOs preferring a weak/strong Euro

Weaker Euro

Stronger Euro

Financing options

Usage of resources


Interest rates

Euro


“ Moderate overall appreciation of financial and economic policy making ”

Perception of a net % of CFOs of the way in which the Belgian governmentis setting the right priorities for financial and economic policy making

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

19% 25%31%

25%

25%

14%

12%

21% 21%

11%

14%

24%33%

-3%

64%59%

31% 33%

-52%

-46%

-44%

-63%

-21%

-34% -27%

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2016

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2015

Q4

2015

Q3

2015

Q2

2015

Q1

2014

Q4

2014

Q3

2014

Q2

2014

Q1

2013

Q4

2013

Q3

2013

Q2

2013

Q1

2012

Q4

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

Policies

Appropriateness of financial and economic policies

AuthorsThierry Van SchoubroeckPartner, Finance [email protected]

Wim Jansens Senior [email protected]

ContactsThierry Van SchoubroeckPartner, Finance [email protected]

Tom Van CauwenbergeFinance Lead, [email protected]

For current and past copies of the survey, please visit:

www.deloitte.be

Profile survey participants


A note on methodologyNot all survey questions are reported in each quarterly survey. In response to the current financial economic situation survey questions will be selected. In case you participated to the survey and would like to receive information about non-reported questions do not hesitate to contact us. Some of the charts in the Deloitte CFO survey show the result in the form of a net % balance. This is the percentage of respondents reporting, for instance, that bank credit is attractive minus the percentage saying bank credit is unattractive. This is a standard way of presenting survey data.

The 2018 fourth quarter survey took place between December 21,2018 and January 16,2019; a total number of 76 CFOs completed the survey. We would like to thank all participating CFOs for their efforts in completing our survey. We hope the report makes an interesting read, clearly highlighting the challenges facing CFOs, and providing an important benchmark to understand how your organisation rates among peers.

Rules on the dashboard indicatorsThe following methodology was applied for the symbols and indicators used in the CFO survey dashboard: An upward arrow is displayed in case an indicator has increased with 5 or more percentage points since the previous survey. A downward arrow is used in case an indicator has decreased with 5 or more percentage points since the previous survey. The equals signs is used in case the indicator remained stable between these upper and lower thresholds. A green symbol is used in case the indicator, from a business perspective, displays a favourable trend or situation; a red colour is used in case the indicator displays an unfavourable trend or situation; a grey colour is in case of ambiguous or neutral outcomes.

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