delphi method ed.3
TRANSCRIPT
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Delphi MethodDelphi Method
Presented By : Farzad Minooei
Graduate School of
Management and
Economics
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Contents
Overview2
Objectives4
Application33
Definition31
Technique35
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Contents
Benefits37
Outcomes6
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Delphi Method is a method for structuring a group
communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem.
based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.
Definition31
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In the standard version: the experts answer questionnaires in two or
more rounds after each round, a facilitator provides an
anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments.
experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel.
Overview32
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It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer.
Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion(e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus).
Overview32
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Use in forecasting
To deal with a complex problem
As a tool to implement multi-stakeholder approaches for participative policy-making
Application3
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To ensure that all possible options are identified
To estimate the impact & consequences of options
To examine & estimate the acceptability of options
Objectives34
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Orientation: Six Phases in Delphi :
• Formulation of Issues• Exposing Options• Determining initial options on Issues especially
areas of agreement & disagreement• Exploring reasons for disagreement• Evaluating such reasons• Re-Evaluating of Options in the Light of above
First 3 Phases constitute the crucial stage of preparation.
Technique5
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Selecting & retaining a Panel: Size of the panel Selecting a member as an expert Attrition rate over several rounds of
consultation
Technique5
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Selecting & retaining a Panel: Selection member as an expert :
• Key Issue:– Nature of participants Interest– Depth & range of expertise
• Two basic type of participants:– Referees : disinterested experts on topic – Advocate : their knowledge derive from their Participant– Diversity between “Referee” & “Advocate”
» To avoid Uniformity of response
• Participant’s Different degree of Experience on topics
Technique5
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Designing the Questionnaire : Pre-test : for balance between closed-Open
Questionnaire. Take 30 min till 5 hours to complete
Technique5
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Scaling Judgments: Participants are asked to make evaluations
about specific propositions & not simply choose from a number of alternatives.
Technique5
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Progressing through successive rounds: 5 rounds of Delphi may be necessary to meet
all its objectives
Technique5
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Each grouping (Sponsor-Consultant-Expert) might be seen as stakeholders.
Technique5
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Identifying the degree of consensus or dissensus
Specifying the range of different positions
Revealing the rationales which lie behind the judgments
Outcomes36
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Delphi is suitable for problem does not lend itself to precise analytical
technique but benefit from subjective judgments on
collective basis
Suitable in conditions of Uncertainty
It is more appropriate when it is not practicable or desirable to bring experts together
Benefits7
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Delphi roles as a forum for exploration of Ideas & the strength of opinion
It brings wide range of experts from different backgrounds
It enables disagreement in a constructive forum & ensures equal participation
Benefits7
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LOGO
Graduate School of
Management and
Economics