Wheat prices overnight are down 8 in SRW, down 11 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down $0.12; Soyoil up 0.62. For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 10 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 12 1/2; Soymeal down $0.46; Soyoil up 0.49. For the month to date wheat prices are up 23 in SRW, up 10 3/4 in HRW, up 11 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans down 20 1/4; Soymeal down $6.30; Soyoil up 0.76. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 153 ringgit (+3.34%) at 4736 extending gains to a fresh record on a wave of bullish factors, including the outlook for lower inventories in Malaysia, sturdy demand and concerns that production by top growers will fall short of expectations. China’s markets continue to be closed for holiday. Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday, mostly north. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers south Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. East: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday. The player sheet for Oct. 4 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, zero corn, buyers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and zero soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 365 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat. Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 4 were: SRW Wheat up 4,721 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,989, Corn up 6,052, Soybeans up 10,482, Soymeal up 8,661, Soyoil up 5,883. TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 426,800 tonnes of

U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association has issued an international tender to

purchase 48,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan's state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000

tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins,

• SOYOIL, SUNOIL TENDER: Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply

Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking soyoil and sunflower oil in an international purchasing

tender for arrival Nov. 25 to Dec. 20. The deadline for offers is Oct. 5.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency has issued an international tender to purchase about

200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government

• WHEAT TENDER: Ethiopia’s Public Procurement and Property Disposal Service is seeking 300,000

tons of milling wheat on behalf of the National Disaster Risk Management Commission, it said

on Facebook.

US BASIS/CASH • Basis bids for corn and soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were steady to lower

on Monday on moderate demand and rising supplies amid the ongoing harvest, traders said.

o Export loadings are accelerating at Gulf Coast terminals following weeks of downtime or

reduced operations following Hurricane Ida.

o FOB export premiums for soybeans were capped by limited demand for Gulf shipments

as global buyers have been sourcing cheaper supplies from South America or the U.S.

Pacific Northwest.

o CIF Gulf soybean barges loaded in October were bid a penny lower at 70 cents over

Chicago Board of Trade November SX1 futures. November barge bids were unchanged

at 76 cents over futures.

o FOB basis offers for November soybean loadings, the nearest available loading slow

offered, were unchanged at about 150 cents over futures.

o CIF corn barges loaded in October were bid 2 cents lower at 77 cents a bushel over

CBOT December CZ1 futures. November barges were bid steady at 75 cents over

futures.

o FOB November corn loadings were about steady at 165 cents over futures.

• Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat held steady at grain elevators in the southern U.S.

Plains on Monday while premiums firmed for high-protein grades of wheat, grain dealers said.

o Protein premiums for hard red winter wheat delivered by rail to or through Kansas City

rose by 5 to 20 cents a bushel for wheat with protein content of 11.8% through 12.8%,

while premiums jumped by 30 cents for wheat with protein content of 13% or higher,

according to CME Group data. KCBT/SCA

• Spot cash millfeed offers were mostly steady around the United States on Friday on adequate

supplies and muted demand for the wheat-based feed ingredient, dealers said.

o Good flour mill run times have bolstered millfeed supplies in most markets around the

country. Supplies remained tight however in the central U.S. Plains due to several days

of downtime at two large flour mills, a dealer said.

• Spot basis bids for corn and soybeans were mixed at processing sites in the interior Midwest on

Monday but softer at river elevators, dealers said.

o The soy basis fell at two Indiana soy crushing plants where the harvest has been active,

but firmed by a nickel at Decatur, Illinois, a processing hub.

o The corn basis fell by 30 cents at a Cedar Rapids, Iowa, processing plant but rose by 5

cents at Blair, Nebraska.

o Basis bids for both corn and soybeans fell at Midwest river locations, despite a drop in

barge freight costs late last week. Cheaper barge freight tends to support basis bids in

the interior Midwest.

o Barge freight costs fell on Friday as the pace of unloading improved at the U.S. Gulf,

generating increased supplies of available empty barges, while rains slowed harvest

activity in the Mississippi River Delta, cooling demand for freight, barge sources said.

• Spot basis bids for corn and soybeans firmed along U.S. Midwest river elevators on Monday,

rebounding after a dip late last week tied to expectations of a pickup in harvest selling.

o Basis bids for corn and soy were mostly steady in the interior Midwest, while the basis

firmed at Chicago for soft red winter wheat.

• Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal were mostly flat on Monday with a few mixed changes, but

tight supplies underpinned values as soy processing facilities continued their transition from

crushing old-crop soybeans to newly harvested supplies, dealers said.

o The Chicago rail basis for soymeal fell by $4 per ton compared to last week, but the

truck basis firmed by $2 at Mankato, Minnesota.

TODAY Corn Futures Rise as Biden Engages with Beijing on Trade The Biden Administration will directly engage with Beijing in the coming days to enforce commitments in the countries’ trade deal and start a new process to exclude certain products from U.S. tariffs, according to senior administration officials. Traders will parse through a speech by U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai on Monday about the Biden administration’s approach to the bilateral trade relationship with China. USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 29% Harvested, Soybeans 34% Harvested Highlights from the report:

• Corn harvest 29% vs 18% last week, and 24% a year ago

• Corn 59% G/E vs 59% last week, and 62% a year ago

• Corn mature 88% vs 74% last week, and 85% a year ago

• Soybeans 58% G/E vs 58% last week, and 64% a year ago

• Soybean drop leaves 86% vs 75% last week, and 83% a year ago

• Soybeans harvested 34% vs 16% last week, and 35% a year ago

• Winter wheat planted 47% vs 34% last week, and 50% a year ago

• Winter wheat emerged 19% vs 9% last week, and 22% a year ago

• Cotton 62% G/E vs 65% last week, and 40% a year ago

• Cotton harvested 13% vs 11% last week, and 16% a year ago

• Sorghum 56% G/E vs 56% last week, and 51% a year ago

USDA Crop Progress by State for the Week of Oct. 3 (Table)

U.S. Inspected 809k Tons of Corn for Export, 844k of Soybean In week ending Sept. 30, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 844k tons vs 485k the previous wk, 2,083k a yr ago

• Wheat: 612k tons vs 384k the previous wk, 680k a yr ago

• Corn: 809k tons vs 636k the previous wk, 911k a yr ago

U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Sept. 30 Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Sept. 30 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 355k tons of the 844k total inspected

• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

Malaysia Oct. 1-5 Palm Oil Exports -31.74% M/m: Intertek Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 31.74% m/m during Oct. 1-5, according to Intertek Testing Services.

Fertilizer Prices Could Drive Cost of Corn Production Up 16% Expensive fertilizer could push U.S. corn farmers’ cost of production 16% higher, Alexis Maxwell, an analyst at Bloomberg’s Green Markets, says in a note Monday.

• Fertilizer could account for 45% of corn’s operating cost in 2022, up from normal 35%

• Farmers could switch from corn to less fertilizer-intensive crops like wheat, soybeans

• “Corn farmers also may pull back on phosphate and potash applications to spend on cheap

ammonia in autumn,” Maxwell says

• “After trimming seed and chemical expenses by 8% and 12%, respectively, per acre since 2016,

farmers have little room for further cuts from those inputs.”

StoneX Sees U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Above USDA’s Outlook U.S. corn yields are estimated at 176.6 bu/acre and production at 15.022 billion bu, according to a survey Monday from brokerage StoneX.

• That’s above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest estimate for a yield of 176.3 bu/acre

and production of 14.996 billion bu

• StoneX estimated U.S. soybean yields of 51.3 bu/acre and production of 4.436 billion bu

o That’s above USDA’s estimate for 50.6 bu/acre and production for 4.374 billion

• NOTE: USDA released updated crop-production forecasts on Sept. 10. Updated USDA estimates

are expected next week.

Brazil Soybean Planting at 4% as of Sept. 30: AgRural Compares with 1% a week earlier and 2% last year, consulting firm AgRural says in an emailed report.

• With not much rain and high temperatures, most farmers were waiting for better conditions to

speed up seeding

• Summer corn planting was 33% complete in Brazil’s center-South Region, compared with 31% a

year before

Vietnam Plans to Cut U.S. Pork Tariffs as Trade Tensions Ease

• Frozen pork duties falling to 10%; corn, wheat also to be cut

• U.S., Vietnam have recently resolved currency, timber issues

Vietnam plans to lower tariffs on U.S. frozen pork, corn and wheat, a further sign of easing trade tensions with its biggest export market. The cuts, which will be announced this quarter, are intended to increase imports from the U.S. and narrow its trade deficit with Vietnam, Nguyen Do Anh Tuan, a spokesman for Vietnam’s agriculture ministry, said in an interview Monday.

The planned cuts will see tariffs lowered to 10% from 15% for frozen pork, 2% from 5% on corn, and eliminated for wheat from the current 3%, Tuan said. The move to boost purchases of American agricultural goods is the latest effort to improve relations as Washington and Hanoi seek closer economic and geopolitical ties to balance China’s increasing clout in the region. Pork accounts for more than 70% of Vietnam’s total meat consumption. While the country has one of the biggest hog herds in Southeast Asia, demand for imported pork has risen over the past two years as its pig farms were ravaged by African swine fever. Vietnam last year temporarily cut its U.S. frozen pork import tariffs to 10% resulting in American exports to the country doubling in the second half of 2020 from the first half, according to a May letter to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and signed by 72 members of Congress. WEATHER SUMMARIES WORLD SOYBEAN PROSPECTS: Showers causing harvest delays in the Midwest. Isolated showers may cause some harvest delays in the Delta. Scattered showers in central and northeast China delaying harvest of soybeans. Favorable conditions for soybean planting in Brazil. More showers are needed for soybean planting and establishment in Argentina. Monsoon showers in central India picking back up, benefiting filling soybeans. WORLD CORN PROSPECTS: Showers causing harvest delays in the Midwest. Isolated showers in central and northeast China delaying harvest of corn. Drier conditions in Ukraine and southwest Russia benefiting harvest of corn. Favorable conditions for corn planting in Brazil. More showers are needed for corn planting and establishment in Argentina. Isolated showers benefiting corn planting in South Africa. WORLD WHEAT PROSPECTS: Isolated showers in the Pacific Northwest, but not enough, delaying winter wheat establishment. Recent showers in the Central and Southern Plains easing heat stress and favoring planting and establishment. Dryness and heat this week causing stress for drier areas. Favorable conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment for most of Europe. Mostly favorable conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment in Ukraine, but more moisture is needed for Russia. Favorable conditions for reproductive to filling winter wheat in Australia. Recent showers benefiting reproductive to filling winter wheat in southern Brazil. Recent showers benefiting reproductive to filling winter wheat in Argentina. Favorable conditions for planting winter wheat in China. US PRECIP FORECAST

SOUTH AMERICA

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