demand and supply forecasting
TRANSCRIPT
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Welcome
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Models and techniques of manpower
demand and supply forecasting
Presented by,
Anuraj k
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Manpower Planning The development of strategies to match the supply of
workers to the availability of jobs at organizational,regional, or national level. Manpower planning involves
reviewing current manpower resources, forecasting futurerequirements and availability, and taking steps to ensurethat the supply of people and skills meets demand.
A more current term for manpower planning atorganizational level is human resource planning.
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Demand Forecasting
It is the process of estimating the requirement of different
kinds of personnel in future
The basis of manpower forecasts should be the annual
budget and long term corporate plan translated into activity
levels for each function an department
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Techniques of Demand Forecasting
Managerial Judgment
Work Study Technique
Statistical Techniques
Delphi Technique
Computer Analysis
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Managerial Judgement
The most typical method for smaller company
In this method the managers simply sit down, think about
their future work load and how many people they need
It adopt both the bottom-up' and top-down approach.
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Work-load Analysis
In work load analysis the manpower expert need to find out
sales forecasts, work schedules and thus determine the
manpower required per unit of product.
Work-force Analysis
In work-force analysis they keep a sufficient margin for
absenteeism,labour turn over and idle time on the basis of
past experience
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StatisticalTechniques
It is the technique of using high speedcomputers and new mathematical techniques
The main statistical tools are
Ratios and Trend analysis
Regression analysis
Bureks-smith model
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Ratios and Trend analysis
Ratios, which are calculated for the basis of past data
relating to number of employees
The data are collected in different levels
Future manpower requirement is calculated on the
basis of established ratios
The value depend upon accurate records and realistic
estimate of future activity levels and the effect of
improved performance
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Regression Analysis
The technique is used to estimate the manpower
requirement of an organization's at a future point of
time
It used when dependent and independent variables are
functionally related to each other
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Bureks-Smith Model
In this method a mathematical model developed for
personnel forecasting
En = (Lagg+G)1/x
Y Enit is estimated level of personnel demand in nplanning period.
Lagg- it is overall turnover or aggregate level of current business
activity n rupees.
G- is the total growth in business activity anticipated through period
n in terms of rupees.
X-it is the average productivity improvement
Y-is conversion figure relating todays overall activity
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Delphi Technique The objective of the Delphi technique is to predict future
situations by integrating the independent opinions of
experts
A major goal of the Delphi technique is to avoid direct
confrontation of experts, since some individuals may be
unduly influenced by others because of status differences,
resulting in compromise of good ideas
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Computer Analysis
MANPLAN was developed by General Electric" to
overcome human resource modeling problems (such as the
overwhelming mathematical complexity that can be
brought into such planning efforts).
One final merit of MANPLAN is that running the
computer model is relatively inexpensive.
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This computer program needs for its forecast, asking suchquestions as:
1. How many different product lines do you manufacture?
2. How many months does your forecast cover?
Once these questions are answered and fed into thecomputer, the computer can produce a forecast estimatingaverage human resource levels required to meet product
demand. MANPLAN also provides for ranges of possiblehuman resource needs for any period
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Summery
. The process of human resource planning is closely
related to other personnel functions, such as selection,
training and development, and performance evaluation. In
order to make effective planning decisions, managers mustfirst be able to forecast what their human resource needs
will be. We have discussed a number of techniques that
firms can utilize in forecasting their demand for human
resources.
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Reference
T.N.Chhabra, HumanResourceManagement
BiswanathGhosh, HumanResources
DevelopmentandManagement
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Questions?
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