demand for education and training: stimulus package and beyond center on education and the workforce...
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Demand for Education and Training: Stimulus package and beyond
Center on Education and the Workforce
March 6th 2009
Figure 1: The Jobs are trending and will continue to trend downwards
Establishment Employment (in millions)
2007 2008 2009
MA Forecast
Dec 07recession
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Less than 4 years of High School
4.6%
10.1%
4 or more years of High School, no College
2.9%
5.8%
2.9%
Some college, 1-3 years 4.2%
1.3%BA and above
2.1%
4.4%
All
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
20.0%
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Nov 73-Mar75Recession
Jan 80-Jul 80Recession
Jul 81-Nov 82Recession
Jul 90-Mar91Recession
Mar 01-Nov 01Recession
Dec '07-presentRecession
Figure 2: Those with relatively lower levels of human capital are most
negatively affected by recessions demonstrating the task before the Workforce Investment Boards
Unemployment by education Level
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation
Less than a high school diploma
12.6%
7.4%
8.3%
4.7%
High school graduates, no college
Some college or associate degree
3.8%
7%
Bachelor's degree or higher
4.1%
2.1%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Feb 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation
Figure 2b: Most current data on unemployment by education level
Unemployment by education Level
Tom Toles Washingington Post, 3-4-09
The experts have their say on the depth and length of the recession.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: The Washington Post, Match 4th 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 3: ¿¿¿ Will it ever end???
Establishment Employment (in Millions)
Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MA Forecast
Dec 07recession
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 4: The business cycle: We need think about acting in a recession as setting the grounds for recovery
Establishment Employment (in Millions)
Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MA Forecast
Mar 01-Nov 01 recession
Jul 81-Nov82
Jul 90-Nov91
Jan 80-Jul 80
recession
Dec 07-present
recession
Topics of discussion
Job growth by industry and occupation The Education and training requirements of
stimulus jobs Training in the recession and recovery And what about “Green” Jobs? – Many
emerging jobs can’t be predicted easily Thinking beyond the recession Our ongoing research
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Table 1: What Types of Jobs? (The Highlights)
General Specific
Infrastructure
Weatherization
Fixing and upgrading road and bridges
Creation of new and improvement of commuter and light rail transit
Clean Water, Flood Control and Environmental Restoration
Expanding broadband services
Modernizing more than 75% of federal buildings and improve the energy efficiency of two million American homes.
Health Care Maintenance of Medicaid programs
Implementation of computerized Health care Technology
Science and Technology Study of genetic disorders
Doubling the production of alternative energy in the next 3 years.
Climate Science and bio fuels
Education Systems State Fiscal Stabilization Fund
Local School Districts Fund
Source: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
The White House, February 2009
11,000
26,000
50,000
98,000
99,000
158,000
214,000
240,000
244,000
345,000
408,000
499,000
604,000
678,000
Jobs Created by Industry, 2010Q4
Construction
Retail Trade
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Professional and Business Services
Government
Education and Health Services
Financial Activities
Wholesale Trade
Other Services
Transportation and Warehousing
Mining
Information
Utilities
3,675,000 Total
Figure 5: A Breakdown of Jobs by Industry, Obama Administration’s Plan for
Jobs based on the Stimulus Package. –Construction (18%), Retail (15%), Hospitality (14%) and Manufacturing (11%) produce 60% of the Jobs
Source: Romer and Bernstein (2009) based on their estimates of the effects by industry from Mark Zandi’s Source: Romer and Bernstein (2009) based on their estimates of the effects by industry from Mark Zandi’s ““The Economic Impact of a $600 Billion Fiscal Stimulus Package,” Moody’s Economy.com, November 28th 2008.The Economic Impact of a $600 Billion Fiscal Stimulus Package,” Moody’s Economy.com, November 28th 2008.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
610,785
486,814
543,972
498,586
423,845
13,325
497,566
157,840
241,766
199,501
Management, business, & related occs
Professional and related occs
Service occs
Sales and related occs
Office & administrative support occs
Farming, fishing, and forestry occs
Construction & extraction occs
Installation, maintenance, & repair occs
Production occs
Transportation & material moving occs
Distribution of 3.7 Million Stimulus Jobs by Occupation
Figure 6: Distribution of 3.7 Million Stimulus Jobs by Occupation. The
Majority of these jobs (59%) will be in Managerial (17%), Service (15%), Construction (14%) and Sales (14%) related occupations.
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of March CPS data, 2005-2007 (pooled sample)
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 7: Education Requirements for Stimulus Package Jobs.
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
46% College Jobs
54% non-College Jobs445,396
1,258,637
287,303
338,514
336,807
691,095
49,936
168,494
9,633
50,658
36,163
1,364
High school dropout, 12%
High school graduate,
34%
Post-secondary certificate, 8%
Some college no degree, 9%
Associate degree, 9%
Bachelor's degree, 19%
Post-bachelor's certificate, 1.4%
Master's degree, 5%
Post master's certificate, 0.3%
First professional
degree, 1.4%
PhD, 1%
Post doctoral training,
0.04%
3,675,000 Total
This is not you father’s WPA
Non-College Jobs require formal and informal training
Many jobs require extensive experience Mapping skill sets to emerging jobs will be an
important function to move the unemployed from one trade to another
O*NET might be key ( more discussion later)
586,00025%
677,20129%
251,66111%
286,60912%
243,35810%
146,3606%
83,4334%
61,2283%
None or shortdemo
Short demo to 1Month
1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1-2 years 2-4 years More than 4years
*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 8: Many of the non-college jobs * require Employer-Provided Classroom Training which is often short and could be satisfied by job preparation
and other training.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
292,71213%
531,51823%
454,21419%
360,32615% 342,604
15%
160,8337%
101,2914.3% 84,351
3.7%
None or shortdemo
Short demo to 1Month
1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1-2 years 2-4 years More than 4years
*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation
Figure 9: Many of these non-college jobs * also require Informal On-the-
Job Training
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
521,06522%
126,8605% 84,806
4%
118,1925%
249,50511%
456,89120%
377,40516%
195,3908%
66,2393%
133,4996%
None Up to 1month
1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12months
1-2 years 2-4 years 4-6 years 6-8 years More than 8years
*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation
Figure 10: Work Experience is Required for
non-College Jobs *
521,06567%
126,86015%
84,8068%
118,1924%
249,5053% 456,891
2% 377,4051%
None Up to andincluding 1 year
1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years 5-6 years
Figure 11: Registered Apprenticeship Training Required
for non-College Jobs in the Stimulus Package*
*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.Apprenticeships presented in this chart are those with a registered US Department of Labor program that provide a certificate of completion. They represent approximately 25-50% of all Apprenticeship programs in the United States. (This number is a rough estimate provided by industry experts. Estimates of unregistered apprenticeship programs are difficult to obtain).
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
396,000
206,000
215,000
269,000
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
P A
RI
SC
SD
T N
T X
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
Figure 12: Employment Impact of the Stimulus PackageBy State- While the numbers differ the per capita
impact is fairly even
Source: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: State-by-State Impact, The White House, February 2009
WSJ estimates 1/27/09 http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-STIMULUS0109.html
Table 2: Large numbers of training dollars will flow to the states quickly but in per capita terms coverage varies
widely: Alaska-$20 per capita, California -$13.80, Iowa -$5.46
Job Training Job Training Job Training
Alabama 31,416,013 KY 48,165,776 ND 8,761,506
Alaska 13,715,640 La 43,401,452 Ohio 155,039,850
Arizona 48,538,123 Maine 11,934,126 Oklahoma 23,305,408
Arkansas 27,607,040 MD 34,576,551 Oregon 39,414,636
California 507,839,639 MA 60,581,167 Pa 103,928,168
Colorado 32,525,697 MI 200,786,089 RI 15,238,027
Conn 31,929,081 Minn 47,418,790 SC 65,977,433
Delaware 7,020,525 Miss 46,179,669 SD 8,573,825
DC 10,657,624 Missouri 69,653,391 Tenn 68,591,645
Florida 149,882,674 Montana 9,259,009 Texas 196,591,556
Georgia 91,984,831 NE 10,982,375 Utah 15,033,125
Hawaii 7,625,013 Nevada 26,232,582 Vermont 6,978,923
Idaho 10,254,185 NH 8,150,501 Virginia 39,295,584
Illinois 163,074,364 NJ 65,122,101 Wash 56,799,208
Indiana 60,372,907 NM 15,888,368 WVa 14,647,874
Iowa 16,390,905 NY 189,868,406 Wisc 42,542,980
Kansas 19,106,629 NC 81,338,934 Wy 7,322,768
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Training in the recession
Substantial amounts of money in the stimulus package are devoted to training
These monies are mandated to be spent quickly
The timeliness of the problem demands training occur through existing channels to meet the requirements of today’s “shovel-ready jobs”
Stimulus bill allows education and training to extend UI.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Training in the recession cont’d
We can expect increased demand for short-term training
Currently, specific size of this demand is difficult to predict until the pool of skills of the unemployed is utilized
Current technology holds promise to improve the understanding of employer demand
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Current Technological Advances
Data Systems are evolving The future of training systems suggests that
real time job openings data are able to provide quick and accurate snapshots of job demand and thus help predict changing training needs
LED and LEHD data provide trend and extensive local data
O*NET can be used to understand skill transferability as well as better targeting training
And What about ‘Green Jobs’
Green jobs reference the “Green Jobs Act of 2007” which was later included in the Energy Security and Independence Act
Unlike other workforce efforts focusing on Industry or Occupation green jobs are defined by their impact on the environment
Innovative job creation and training offers a unique opening for workforce development in that new jobs can be created. While ripe for abuse (relabeling old jobs) Jobs can be grown through Green Job Monies Yesterday’s Civilian Conservation Corps can become
today’s Green Jobs Corps
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Thinking Beyond the Recession I
The stimulus will deliver monies that can leverage the existing training system to evolve if people on the ground are not overwhelmed by crisis and see that recovery follows.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Thinking Beyond the Recession II
Accelerated Curricula and Course Clusters can provide training that is responsive to evolving workforce needs.
Longer term employment projections still suggest extensive growth in education demand for some college and above.
The story is not all middle-skill jobs either. The middle-skill story derives from BLS
truncating education demand; A method BLS, is changing.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Highest Education Level Attained 2006 2016 %age Change
Less than high school 14.2 15.0 5.7%
High School Diploma 44.1 41.4 -6.2%
Some College 25.8 27.3 5.8%
Less than an Associate’s Degree 84.1 83.7-0.5%
Associate’s Degree 15.5 20.0 29.3%
Bachelor’s Degree 34.5 42.7 23.8%
Graduate Degree 16.6 19.9 19.8%
AA degree and higher 66.6 82.624%
Total 150.6 million 166.2 million 10.4%
Table 3: Projected Demand for Education to 2016, CEW estimates
(in millions)
Source: Center’s calculations of projections in the demand for education using March CPS data, various years
Conclusion
The recession will bring relatively high unemployment especially among marginalized populations.
Unemployment among BAs and Graduates is pushing 4% while High School and Less is bridging 12%
The Stimulus purposely distributes monies through the existing WIA channels because this is where the ‘Rubber hits the Road’
Thinking beyond the recession gives opportunity to leverage training monies towards new, innovative, and fluid training systems built on signaling from real time data, and delivered via accelerated curricula, when appropriate
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Ongoing research at the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce
We are engaging the Department of Labor and other groups to develop the use of Real Time Job Openings as a tool for Workforce Development.
We are adjusting current employment projections for the effects of the recession and stimulus
Once the adjustments are made nationally we will reproduce in-depth analyses at that state and sub-state levels.
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009