demand forecasting of "popcorn" in hubli-dharwad
DESCRIPTION
It is a project done on demand forecasting on POPCORN taking the sample locality as HUBLI-DHARWAD.. It is something unique project as i could observe while doing my project i could not find any referrences I hope this wil help you in understanding the demand forecasting.TRANSCRIPT
KARNATAK UNIVERSITYKOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT
STUDIESDHARWAD
PROJECT REPORT ON DEMAND FORECASTING OF POPCORNIN
HUBLI-DHARWAD
YEAR 2013-14
SUBMITTED BY GROUP-6
Sumit - Mba13001051Sunitha - Mba13001052
Suresh- Mba13001053Suvarna- Mba13001054
Chand- Mba13001055Vaijanath- Mba13001056
Venkatesh- Mba13001057Vijayalaxmi- Mba13001058
VISHWANATH - MBA13001059Zeba - Mba13001060
Under the guidance of
Institute Guide.
Mrs. VIDULA DHULKED
1KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Sl. No. Particulars Page No.
01 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 3
02 INTRODUCTION 4
03 NEED FOR THE STUDY 6
04 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY 7
05 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 8
06 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY 9
07 METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 9
08 SAMPLE SIZE 10
09 SIZE AND COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE 10
10 DATA INTERPRETATION 11
11 SALES DURING THE PERIOD 22
12 DEMAND FORECASTING 23
13 CONCLUSIONS 25
14 BIBLIOGRAPHY 28
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
2KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
We would like to thank all the people who helped us in completing this project.
We would like to express our special thanks of gratitude to Mrs. Vidula Dhulked
(Institute Guide) as well, who gave us the opportunity to do this project on
“DEMAND FORECASTING FOR POPCORN IN HUBLI-DHARWAD
REGION”, which also helped us in doing a lot of Research and knowing the
current market about POPCORN Industry.
Regardless of the source we wish to express our gratitude to those who have
contributed to our project, even though anonymously. We would also like to
thank our parents and friends who helped us a lot in completion of this project
within the stipulated time. We extend our thanks to our Director, Dr. A.H.
Chachadi, and Mrs. Vidula Dhulked (Economics Faculty) for providing us an
opportunity to do research on POPCORN product.
INTRODUCTION
3KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Popcorn, also known as popping corn, is a type of corn (maize, Zea mays var.
everta) that expands from the kernel and puffs up when heated. Popcorn is able to
pop because, like amaranth grain, sorghum, quinoa, and millet, its kernels have a
hard moisture-sealed hull and a dense starchy interior. Pressure builds inside the
kernel, and a small explosion (or "pop") is the end result. Some strains of corn are
now cultivated specifically as popping corns.
Popcorn was first cultivated thousands of years ago by the people living in what is
now Peru. It is one of the oldest forms of corn; evidence of popcorn from 3600
B.C. was found in New Mexico, while even older evidence was found in Peru. It is
estimated that these remnants date from as early as 4700 B.C. Purple popcorn was
found in the early 1900s.
Popcorn is a simple wholegrain food that can be bought as kernels to pop at home,
or as ready-to-eat corn, available flavored in several ways – both sweet and savory.
It has great potential for development.
4KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
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NEED FOR THE STUDY
5KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
To understand the emerging POPCORN market in India. The study within Hubli-
Dharwad geographic region has provided information to understand the historic
and forecast consumption volumes and values, segmented by market share,
distribution channel, category and geography. To determine the market dynamics
at work in the sector, as well as to identify which geographies and segments will
show growth in coming years.
To do research on POPCORN product categories i.e., Microwaveable Popcorn,
Ready-to-Eat Popcorn, Ready-made popcorn and Unpopped Corn.
And also to understand the market position of POPCORN as compared to other
snack items. To forecast the demand for the product POPCORN as a part of the
project assigned.
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
6KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
To understand the POPCORN market under food processing industry in and
around Hubli-Dharwad junction. The main objective is to study The demand
forecasting of POPCORN and to bring out the changing tastes and preferences of
people towards the consumption of snacks. The research is done on considering the
method, by which POPCORN is popped, its consumption, its variety in flavors,
price and demand for POPCORN at various places.
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
While the economic scenario in India is not very encouraging with the rupee
falling to its all time low at 62.46, the booming popcorn business can be a relief to
7KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
many. The popcorn industry in India is growing extensively with an annual sales
growth of 10 percent. With multiplexes coming up every forth night, the
consumption of popcorn is unbelievable.
Seeing the growing popcorn market, the Indian farmers are also concentrating on
maize cultivation and almost 25 percent of the production is sent to food industry.
According to experts, this industry is only going to rise in the coming years.
Responding to the above forecast, new entrepreneurs are emerging in various parts
of India. Hyderabad- based Venagro is a new player and is annually selling 2,500
tonnes of corn in bulk.
The good news is that even nutritionists approve of this snack and hence we can
munch as much popcorns as we want without worrying about health hazards.
Because popcorn is a snack food, it faces substantial competition from other
products. However, popcorn’s versatility and nutritional attributes helps it compete
with other snacks. Popcorn is low in calories and fat, and high in carbohydrates.
Weight Watchers® recommends popcorn as a snack for the weight-conscious. The
American Dental Association® endorses popcorn as a sugar-free snack. The
American Cancer Society® recognizes the benefits of its fiber content.
LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
There is no particular production and distribution channel of
POPCORN snack to the market.
8KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Other Indian snacks are effective competitors to POPCORN.
The taste and preferences of people of Hubli-Dharwad towards
POPCORN less in demand comparatively with its Substitutes.
This study is limited to only 100 samples when compared to huge population of HUBLI-DHARWAD region.
The data collected through questionnaires might not be 100% accurate and the data or information collected from the retailer may not be transparent.
METHODOLOGY
The main sources of data collected are of 2 types they are:
PRIMARY SOURCE OF DATA: Primary source of data is collected
through interaction with the customer, through questionnaires and by
personal observation at various places of Hubli-Dharwad.
SECONDARY SOURCE OF DATA: Secondary source of data is collected
through micro economic book & websites related to POPCORN Industry.
SAMPLE SIZE
We took 100 samples of questionnaires and distributed them among the
people of Hubli-Dharwad region where we interacted with them by asking them
to fill the questionnaires.
9KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
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SAMPLE COMPOSITION
77% of the samples were mainly consisted of the age group 15-35 in which
60% were male and 17% were female, 15% were of the age group 35-above in
which 8% were male and 7% were female and the age group of below-15 were at
8% in which 6% were female and 2% were male.
DATA INTERPRETATION
1. Have you heard of popcorn?
NO. of samples Percentage
Yes 90 90
No 10 1010
KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIESKARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Total 100 100
Analysis:
From the above information it is analyzed that 90% of population of Hubli-
Dharwad heard of POPCORN to 10% of population are unaware of product
POPCORN.
2. Do you eat popcorn?
11KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
90%
10%
Percentage
Yes No
yes no0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Above 3515-35Below 15
Analysis:
The above pie chart depicts that 85% of population eat POPCORN whereas 15% of
population don’t have POPCORN.
3. Have often you have POPCORN?
12KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Daily Once in a weak
Twice a weak Occassionally0
5
10
15
20
25
Below 15
15-35
Above 35
Below 1515-35Above 35
Analysis:
The above cylindrical chart depicts that the highest percentage of people have
POPCORN once in a week between the age group of 15-35. And lowest
percentages of population have POPCORN twice a week between the age group of
15-35.
4. Where do you usually eat POPCORN?
13KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
At home Theatres Malls Other specify0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Below 1515-35Above 35
Analysis:
The above bar diagram presents the percents that 50% of respondents have
POPCORN at Theatres between the age group of 15-35 years of age and below 1%
of respondents have at home who are above 35 years of age.
5. Does POPCORN can be considered as substitute for other snacks?
14KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Analysis:
The above data depicts that 79 % of the people of Hubli-Dharwad feel that
POPCORN can be substituted with other available snacks as compared to 21% of
people say it can’t be substituted.
6. What type of flavour would you like to have?
15KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
79%
21%
Percentage
YesNo
Sweet corn Salty corn Chilly corn Pepper corn0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Below 1515-35Above 35
Analysis:
From the above cylindrical diagram, it can be said that 30% of people between the
age group of 15-35 years like salt flavored POPCORN, whereas about 2%
population like chilly corn above 35years of age.
7. What is your one time expenditure when you buy POPCORN?
16KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Below Rs. 10 Rs. 10-25 Rs. 25-40 Above Rs. 400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Below 15
15-35
Above 35
Below 1515-35Above 35
Analysis:
From the above diagram it is depicted that 55% of people spend 10-25Rs when
they purchase POPCORN.
8. Which one you prefer?
17KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
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29%
71%
Percentage
Ready-to-eat popcornReady made popcorn
Analysis:
From the above diagram we can depict that 71% of population prefer ready-made
POPCORN as compared to 29% of people who prefer ready-to-eat POPCORN.
9. Do you want it to deliver to your home?
18KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Analysis:
From the above diagram we can say that 58% of people want POPCORN to be
delivered to their home instantly as compared to 42% of people don’t want
POPCORN to be delivered to their home.
10. What kind of popcorn would you like to have?
19KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Percentage
YesNo
Hot
Cold
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Above 3515-35Below 15
Analysis:
From above conical chart we can say that maximum percentage of people prefer
hot POPCORN instantly rather than to have cold ones.
11. Do you like to have coloured POPCORN?
20KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
Yes
No
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Above 3515-35Below 15
Analysis:
From above diagram it can be said that above 55% of people between 15-35 age
group prefer coloured POPCORN as compared to other groups of people age
above 35 and below 15 years of age.
SALES DURING THE PERIOD
21KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
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It was observed that POPCORN has various demands for sales based on the place
it is being sold. We had observed for 10 specific places where the popcorn is sold
at theatres, parks, malls and market the price varies from one place to other, the
least price we come across was Rs 10 and the highest was Rs 30. There is an
average sale of 24.4 packets on week days at a place and in weekend it is around
47 packets. If we consider the average as Rs 20 per packet then the average sales of
POPCORN will be Rs 2400 in week days and Rs 1720 in weekend at a place, in
total it will be Rs 3720 per week at a place.
Based on the available data we projected the sales from Sunday to onday.
DAYS Quantity Sold
(packets)
SALES IN RS. (at a
place)
Sunday 49 980
Monday 19 380
Tuesday 22 440
Wednesday 24 480
Thursday 27 540
Friday 30 600
Saturday 45 900
TOTAL 206 4320
DEMAND FORECASTING
Forecasting For Next Three Days.
22KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
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Method Of Least Squares:
Days Sales
(in Rs.)
x x2 xy
Sunday 980 -3 9 -2940
Monday 380 -2 4 -760
Tuesday 440 -1 1 -440
Wednesday 480 0 0 000
Thursday 540 1 1 540
Friday 600 2 4 1200
Saturday 900 3 9 2700
TOTAL 4320 00 18 300
Finding value of a. Finding the value of b.
Substituting the above values in the equation
y = a + bx
Sales for 2nd Monday: y = a + bx
=617.14+16.67(4)
= Rs. 683.82
Sales for 2nd Tuesday: y = a + bx
23KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
∑y= na + b∑x
4320=7a+0
a=4320/7
a=617.14
∑xy=a∑x+
b∑x2
300=0+
18b
b=300/18
b=16.67
=617.14+16.67(5)
= Rs.700.49
Sales for 2nd Wednesday: y = a + bx
=617.14+16.67(6)
= Rs.717.16
Forecast Error Based On Least Square Method:
Forecast error = sales on 1st Monday – forecasted sales on 2nd Monday
Forecast error = 380 - 683.82
= Rs. -303.82
CONCLUSION
We aim to analyze the success, marketability and future growth prospects of
POPCORN. Basically we intend to find out the demand and supply of POPCORN
at Hubli-Dharwad. Snacks as such are a very minor part of the food processing
industry because snacks sector is largely unorganized. Here we will also look into
the market trends in snacks over the period. For this a survey was conducted in
24KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
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Hubli-Dharwad where respondents were asked to fill a questionnaire. The data
was collected and analyzed to obtain conclusions. This report carries an
introduction of the product profile, detail of the product POPCORN, followed
detailed data analysis and the results so obtained with the variety of graphs along
with given information.
POPCORN SURVEY
SAMPLE EXTENT: HUBLI & DHARWADSAMPLE METHOD: CUSTOMER SURVEY
Dear Sir/Madam, We are conducting a survey on POPCORN, we request you to fulfill the questionnaire, your responses are valuable & appreciated and it will be kept confidentially & not to be disclosed.
Thank You For Spending Your Valuable Time.
NAME:
AGE:
GENDER:
LOCATION:
DATE:
1. Have you heard of POPCORN?
25KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
A. Yes B. No
2. Do you eat POPCORN? A. Yes B. No
3. How often you have POPCORN? A. Daily C. Once in a week B. Twice in a week D. Occasionally 4. Where do you usually eat POPCORN?
A. At home B. Theatres C. Malls D. Others specify -----------------------
5. What makes you to buy POPCORN?
6. Does POPCORN can be considered as substitute for other snacks?A. Yes B. No
7. What type of flavour would you like to have?A. Sweet corn C. Chilly CornB. Salty Corn D. Pepper Corn
8. What is your one time expenditure when you buy POPCORN?A. Below 10 Rs C. 25-40 RsB. 10-25 Rs D. Above 40 Rs
9. Which one you prefer? A. Ready-to-eat Popcorn B. Readymade Popcorn
10.These days POPCORN can be made easily at home as well. Have you
26KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
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Ever tried at home?A. Yes B. No
11.Which flavor of POPCORN would you like to have?
12.Do you want it to be delivered to your Home?A. Yes B. No
13.POPCORN will best suit with?A. Hot Beverages B. Cold Beverages
14.What kind of POPCORN would you like to have?A. Hot B. Cold
15.Do you like to have coloured POPCORN?A. Yes B. No
16.How is POPCORN different from other Snacks?
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Book References
Managerial Economics authorized by D. M. Mithani
2. Websites
www.popcorn.com
www.atfoods.com
www.google.com
27KOUSALI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD
www.wikipedia.com
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KARNATAK UNIVERSITY, DHARWAD