dembrow 2017 r6_e2

Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017

How we propose to become HD-46 volunteer climate

science advisers

• Inform with perspectives and significant new data.

http://nw-climate-methane-task-force.org/doku.php

http://nw-climate-methane-task-force.org/doku.php

Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017Opportunities to Continue Progress on Climate

Oregon has good planning in place• Environmental Quality Commission, DEQ• Global Warming Commission• Public Utilities CommissionProcesses in place to conduct Greenhouse Gas InventoryHas a strong climate communityRecognizes need to transition from Coal to Clean energyGreen energy base is growing

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Opportunities to Continue Progress on Climate

What we think must happen

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Issues:West Coast Oysters gone in 2019Oregon forests emitting, not sinking CarbonCA forest die-off 66M trees since 2010• Pine beetle, high temps, droughtExtensive forest die-off in Oregon



• Alignment of activists and policymakers with science is critical

• We see a need for more accurate GHG accounting• Attention to energy conservation and demand side

reductions as near-term climate solutions• Focus on near term threat of methane releases

Climate damage is not like other problems

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Agenda



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Organization


Science is the Same for Activists, Legislators and Policy

Ideology plays no part in science or engineeringDEQ trying to tell OGWC where we are headedScience should tell us … why there is no

measurable effect seen in data from decades of policymaking

• Engineering can build on facts to explain and refine numbers and disclose risks (from knowns and unknowns)

• Legislators and staff benefit from analysis when independently verifiable

Activists are generally not numbers-driven• Jordan Cove is an outstanding exceptionWill benefit from climate science and analysis

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Oregon's GHG Accounting

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HB 3543 Establishes Global Warming Commission (June 2007)

“By 2010, arrest the growth of Oregon′s greenhouse gas emissions”


Oregon's GHG Accounting

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More Accurate GHG Accounting

Oregon accounts for GHG using outdated standards• As concern over a near-term climate tipping point has

increased in recent years, researchers have shifted from the 100 year time horizon to a 20 year time horizon which captures the greater near term threat from methane. Over a 20 year time frame methane is 84 times as potent as CO2 (GWP20=84).

• Oregon’s GHG Inventory is reported with GWP = 28

Emissions below 2,500 m tons CO2e are dismissed, without stipulating how CO2e is to be computedhttp://www.deq.state.or.us/aq/climate/naturalGas.htm• Emissions estimates are accepted in lieu of actual

measurements. Ref. DEQ Division 215 Rules

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http://www.deq.state.or.us/aq/climate/naturalGas.htm



Oregon PUC Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal Rate Impact Report 2016 completely omits gas delivery infrastructure and its GHG leakage.http://oregonpuc.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=1&clip_id=134&meta_id=6591

Oregon GHG Inventory omits reporting by utilities of life cycle GHG emissions prior to delivery. Commodity delivery services do not measure their leaks or releases.http://www.keeporegoncool.org/sites/default/files/ogwc-standard-documents/OGWC_Rpt_Leg_2015_final.pdf

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http://oregonpuc.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=1&clip_id=134&meta_id=6591

http://oregonpuc.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=1&clip_id=134&meta_id=6591

http://www.keeporegoncool.org/sites/default/files/ogwc-standard-documents/OGWC_Rpt_Leg_2015_final.pdf





Externalities in natural gas infrastructure are just as significant as coal.

• SB 1547B limits carbon-by-wire from Montana coal• Methane releases prior to natural gas delivery are

pervasive in the supply chain• Researchers report range from 1% to 12% of

delivered commodity (average 5%)• Natural Gas could be phased out similar to coal-by-

wire, just extend SB 1547B rule makingIn the meantime rule making must require reports on upstream methane releases (i.e. with commodity invoice)

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Energy Conservation and Demand Side Reductions

New residential and commercial buildings can achieve zero net energy use.

• Relying on efficient insulation, heat pumps, and power from onsite renewable energy generation

Affordable technologies allow utilities to source renewable energy• CA has directed deployment of utility-scale grid

energy storage• PGE planning reported to OPUC includes renewable

energy sourcing for 3 of 4 near term optionsNatural gas, 4th option, increases fossil demand for … 30 years

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Near Term Threats Posed by Methane Releases

Although CH4 half life is 12 years, dissipated CH4 is being replenished such that measured concentrations are increasing.Claims of methane leak reduction are not correlated in satellite data.When CH4 influence is factored into budget, CO2e margins disappear by surprise. Except for utility and industrial supply infrastructure leaks, most CH4 releases are not controllable.No one knows when historical tripping points will recur.

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Climate Damage is Not Like Other Problems

Easily denied since it carries political baggage while for decades it was merely inferred from slowly emerging data.

Decisions must be made without fully agreed, fully complete data, fully processed data

• During research and analysis, the message keeps getting worse and worse.

• Delays in intercepting root causes can be discovered irreversible after the fact.

No one has ever threatened to terminate economic, medical, military, or pharmaceutical research efforts due to undesirable deniable results.• With climate damage, this would demand immediate

action based on current knowledge.

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While working for more data, better conclusions, better understanding on a broader scale, populations incurring displacement and suffering have no part in root causation.

As the scale and depth of crises continues to grow, it invites uninitiated deniers to mandate solutions with less supporting data than what climate science has amassed to date.

• We have seen no other problem with such uncertainty, such a clear trend line, and with possible lifeform extinctions if mishandled.

• Setting aside ideology is a moral obligation for anyone capable of grasping the issues.

Nature bats last.

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Therefore we need to pick 1.5 degree target:1) OGWC needs staffing to drive achieving target2) Oregon needs cost of carbon as hammer/enabler

If we miss 2-yr target, adjust cost of carbon Money supports Env. Justice as well as transition

3) PUC needs instruction to enable Life-cycle accounting on fossil fuels Business planning must assume fossil fuel plants out

of service by 2035 – i.e. become stranded assets4) Oregon won't support “growing the problem” with fossil fuel exports

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Clarity of solution schedule has come slowly.History of denial has slowed understanding.Must work with available info in spite of fog. So: Decisions must be made without fully agreed, fully

complete data, fully processed data During research and analysis, the message keeps

getting worse and worse, increasing urgency. Delays in intercepting root causes could throw us over

tipping points.We make progress in the face of uncertainty in economic, medical, military, or pharmaceutical research efforts in order to avoid undesirable deniable results, and must do so for climate.• With climate damage, this demands immediate

action based on current knowledge.17


Climate Science AppendicesAp – GWP20 How does time affect MethaneAp – Carbon Budget Calculating the latest

deadline Ap – Carty and Oregon Why it is essential these

generators be greenAp – Climate History of CH4Methane appears to have played a critical role

with previous shifts in earth’s climateAp – The Back Story for CH4 How we got to the

cliff without noticingAp – Math PlotsMethane vs. CO2: Time patterns of heatingAp – Closing Pitch What we must have from

Oregon Legislature, etc., this year Click title to fetch from local file, click button for web

access.

For Further Information See Appendices

dembrow 2017 r6_e2

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