demographic and socio-economic trends · 2019. 11. 28. · census tracts boundaries based on...

SOUTH SA N FRANCISCO GENERAL PLAN UPDATE

UPDATE

Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends November 2019 | EXISTING CONDITIONS REPORT

1 Existing Conditions Report

Chapter 1: Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Understanding a city’s demographic and socio-economic trends helps planners, public health professionals, and city decision makers plan for change and target appropriate programs and services. This chapter presents data at the citywide and sub-area levels for age, race, households, origin and language and socio-economic conditions, such as educational attainment, employment, income, and housing costs.

Key Findings The following represent key findings, issues, and opportunities related to the demographic and socio-economic

trends in South San Francisco.

• As the City has continued to grow, the racial composition has evolved since 1990, with a majority Asian

Pacific Islander and Latino population in 2017. The majority of Asian Pacific Islanders reside in the

Westborough sub-area, while the majority of Latinos reside in the Downtown sub-area.

• Since 1990, the city has seen a significant increase in older adult population (age 60+) and

stable/decreasing youth population (age 18 and under). The majority of children live near downtown,

and the majority of older adults live in the western side of the city.

• More than half of all South San Franciscans speak a language other than English at home. Nearly a

quarter of the population speaks English less than very well.

• Since 1990, more people (families, multi-generational families, and non-families) are living together in a

single household.

• Rates of educational attainment have greatly increased since 1990, but Pacific Islanders and Latinos

have the lowest high school graduation rates (under 75%).

City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 2

• Although housing costs in South San Francisco are lower than San Mateo County overall, apartment

rents and home sales prices are rapidly growing in the city and county.

• Housing affordability challenges in South San Francisco were worsened by relatively slow growth of

median household incomes in both the city and San Mateo County (from 2010-2017).

Sub-Areas Building on the sub-areas established for the 1999 General Plan Planning Sub-Areas Element, data was

aggregated from census block groups to city sub-areas to provide a summary comparison across the City.1 Figure

1 is a map of the City’s sub-areas for reference throughout this chapter.

Figures in this chapter show US Census tract boundaries overlaid on top of the City. The US Census created

census tracts boundaries based on population size. Neighborhoods with lower populations are grouped

together. Maps showing US Census data with original census tract boundaries will show data for East of 101 and

Lindenville, where there are no residents2. This same census tract extends to residential portions of Orange Park

and El Camino.

General Demographics Information on the general demographic characteristics of a population are important because people of

different ages, genders, and race and ethnicities have different service needs. For example, neighborhoods with a

larger proportion of older adults may require longer crossing times at intersections to account for slower walking

speeds. Neighborhoods with more children may need greater access to parks and childcare services. Knowing

the racial composition of a community can provide context about needed language services and culturally-

appropriate solutions.

Current population demographics are compared to past numbers (1990-2010), as well as comparisons to San

Mateo County or other neighboring cities, such as Redwood City and San Mateo to give perspective on the

contrast between South San Francisco and the region.

1 Census block groups do not follow city boundaries, therefore estimated aggregate total values differ from the South San

Francisco Census Designated Place total by approximately 3,000. 2 Census tract (060816023001) covers all of East of 101 and Lindenville. It also includes most of Orange Park and a portion of El

Camino.


Figure 1: Planning Sub-Areas


Population South San Francisco has steadily grown since it was incorporated in 1908, as shown in Figure 2. The major boom

in growth began in 1940 and continued until 1960. During these two decades the city grew from just under 7,000

people to almost 40,000 people. The city has continued to grow since that period. In the last 20 years, the city’s

population has increased by 24%.3 The City currently holds 9% of the San Mateo County population.4

Figure 2: Population Change Over Time

Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Censuses (1910 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)

Age Profile Figure 3 shows the change in the total number of city’s residents by age category. South San Francisco has a

stable to declining youth population and a growing older adult population (Figure 3). The number of residents

over the age of 45 and the number of older adults over the age of 65 have both increased significantly. Children

under the age of 17 have slightly decreased over the past 50 years and children under 5 remain one of the

smallest populations in the City. Stable to declining youth populations may indicate fewer young families

settling down in the city.

3 US Census Bureau Decennial Censuses (1910 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017) 4 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)

1,989 4,411

6,193

6,629

19,351

39,418 46,646

49,393 54,312

60,552

63,632

67,120

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017


Figure 3: Age Distribution Over Time5

Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Censuses (1910 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)

The youth population is predominantly Hispanic or Latino (49%) and Asian (34%), while the older adult

population is predominantly White (42%) and Asian (41%). More than half (60%) of older adults (over 65 years of

age) are foreign born, compared to 40% in the county.6

Figure 4: Percentage of Population Over 60 and Under 18 Years Old by Race

Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)

5 For some years, population is an estimate calculated by dividing the age 15-19 age group by two and splitting between the two

age groups (5-17 and 18-24) 6 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates Table S0102 (2013-2017))

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Under 5 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+

0.01% 0.2%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Hispanic

or Latino

Asian White Some

Other

Race

Two or

More

Races

Black Native

Hawaiian

and

Pacific

Islander

American

indian

Alaska

Native

Youth (under 17) Older Adults (65+)


The age profile differs significantly by sub-area. Areas such as Westborough, Avalon, and El Camino have higher

proportions of older adults, whereas the Downtown sub-area has the highest concentration of children (under 17

years old) and adults between the ages of 25-44. Sunshine Gardens has the highest concentration of young

adults (ages 18-24) (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Age by Sub-Area7


The growth and decline of population by age category has important implications for planning and can pose

new challenges for South San Francisco, including changing demands on schools, City services, and needed

housing types.

7 Summarized using the block group proportion method

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

East of 101

Lindenville

Sign Hill

Orange Park

Paradise Valley/Terrabay

El Camino

Avalon

Sunshine Gardens

Winston Serra

Downtown

Westborough

0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+


Race and Ethnicity Like the city’s age profile, the racial and ethnicity composition of the city’s residents has evolved. South San

Francisco has shifted from majority White to majority Asian Pacific Islander since 1990, while the county remains

majority White (Figure 6). The African American population decreased even further since 1990. The Westborough

sub-area has the largest Asian Pacific Islander population (73%) in the city. Likewise, the Downtown sub-area has

the largest Latino/Hispanic population (68%) in the city (Figure 7). These evolving demographic characteristics

may require new services and programs to meet the needs of these populations.

Figure 6: Race and Ethnicity Over Time

Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses (1990 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)

Figure 7: Race by Sub-Area (ranked by largest total population)8


8 Summarized using the block group proportion method

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Sign Hill

Orange Park

Paradise Valley/Terra Bay

El Camino

Avalon

Sunshine Gardens

Winston Serra

Downtown

Westborough

Asian or Pacific Islander Hispanic/Latino White Other (Other and AIAN) Black or African American


Family Type and Size Despite adding nearly 2,000 housing units since 1990, the number of people per household has increased by

eleven percent from 2.9 to 3.2.9 A number of factors may be contributing to the increase in household size. Multi-

generational households and non-relatives living at home (roommates) have doubled since 2000 (Figure 8).

Furthermore, as housing costs have risen across the city and region, placing increasing housing stress on

families, more people are crowding into each residential unit.

Figure 8: Increase in Household Size


Place of Origin and Language Spoken at Home Determining the origins and language abilities in a community can help South San Francisco identify community

needs and provide effective bilingual programs and other services. 40% of South San Francisco residents were

not born in the United States, compared to San Mateo County, where about 35% of residents are foreign-born,

and the state, where 27% of residents are foreign-born.

Foreign-born households include both documented and undocumented residents. According to the Public

Policy Institute of California, more than half of (52%) of immigrants in the State are naturalized United States

citizens and another 34% have legal status, including green cards and visas.10 The number of undocumented

immigrants in California has decreased from 2.0 to 1.5 million (2010-2017).

9 US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses (1990 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017) 10 Johnson, H. and S. Sanchez. (2019). Immigration in California. Retrieved from: https://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-

in-california/

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Parents and In-laws Living at

Home

Non-Relatives Living at

Home2000 2017

https://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-california/

https://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-california/


Since 1990, the city experienced a ten percent increase in foreign-born residents. The foreign-born population is

older in South San Francisco with a median age of 51.9 years, compared to a median age of 29.6 years for US-

born residents. Foreign-born residents who live in South San Francisco experience very different socio-economic

conditions from US-born residents. Foreign born residents are more likely to have a larger household size (3.6

compared to 2.8 for US-born), not be a high school graduate for population 25 and over (22% compared to 7%

for US-born), and speak a language other than English at home (92% compared to 33% for US-born).11

More than half of all South San Franciscans (58%) speak a language other than English at home.12 The top three

languages are Spanish, Tagalog, and Mandarin or Cantonese (Figure 9). Mandarin and Tagalog speakers are

clustered in the Westborough sub-area and Spanish-speakers in the Downtown sub-area. Nearly a quarter (23%)

of the total population speak English less than very well (Figure 10).13 Nearly 22% of students enrolled in the

South San Francisco School District are English Learners.14

Figure 9: Languages Spoken at Home

Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017) - C16001

11 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates Table S0501 (2013-2017) 12 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates Table C16001 (2013-2017) 13 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates Table CP02 (2013-2017) 14 English Learners (2017-2018). Ed-Data.org. Retrieved from: http://www.ed-data.org/district/San-Mateo/South-San-

Francisco-Unified

English Only42%

Spanish26%

Tagalog13%Mandarin or

Cantonese10%

Other Indo-European

Lagnuages4%

Other languages3%

Other Asian and Pacific Island

languages2%

http://www.ed-data.org/district/San-Mateo/South-San-Francisco-Unified

http://www.ed-data.org/district/San-Mateo/South-San-Francisco-Unified


Figure 10: People Who Speak English Less than Very Well


This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends from East of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.


Socio-Economic Conditions Information relating to education, employment, income, and housing costs are important because lower, higher,

or changing rates impact the community of South San Francisco. When available, data was disaggregated by

race to consider social and economic factors.

Education As of 2017, over 30% of South San Franciscans have a Bachelor’s degree or above (Figure 11). This represents a

48% increase (since 1990) in South San Francisco adults over the age of 25 that have received a college degree or

higher. Despite this increase, the proportion of residents with a high school degree or less is significantly greater

than the county as a whole (36% to 27%). The latest cohort graduation data shows that Pacific Islanders (58%)

and Latinos (74%) have the lowest graduation rates among their peers (Figure 12).15

Educational attainment is low in areas of Downtown, with less than 15% of residents in the area closest to the

Caltrain station holding at least a Bachelor’s degree (Figure 13). Nearly 14% of South San Francisco students

receiving special education services. The city has the highest rate when compared to other San Mateo county

school districts (average 11.5%).16

15 California Department of Education DataQuest (2017-2018). Graduates as a Percentage of a 4-year adjusted cohort by Race 16 Special Education Enrollment. (2018) KidsData.org Retrieved from: https://www.kidsdata.org/topic/95/special-needs-

education-enrollment/table#jump=why-

important&fmt=1146&loc=4,5,6,7,8,9,13,14,15,16,18,19,20,17,21,22,23,24,25,27,28,30,31,32&tf=108&sortColumnId=1&sortType=des

c

https://www.kidsdata.org/topic/95/special-needs-education-enrollment/table#jump=why-important&fmt=1146&loc=4,5,6,7,8,9,13,14,15,16,18,19,20,17,21,22,23,24,25,27,28,30,31,32&tf=108&sortColumnId=1&sortType=desc





Figure 11: Educational Attainment of Population 25 Years and Older


Figure 12: High School Graduates by Race (4-year adjusted cohort)17

Source: California Department Education DataQuest, 5-year estimates (2017-2018)

17 African American and American Indian or Alaska Native data for the City was suppressed by the California Department of

Education. The CDE suppresses data when the cohort is 10 students or less.

15%

11%

21%

16%

31%

25%26%28%

7%

20%

South San Francisco San Mateo County

Did not complete high school High school or equivalency

Some College Bachelor's degree

Master's degree or above

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Asian Filipino Two or More

Races

White Hispanic or

Latino

Pacific Islander



Figure 13: Percent of Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, by Census Block Group, 2017




Teachers and public school staff are not reflective of the diverse South San Francisco population. Latinos and

Asian Pacific Islanders (Asian, Filipino, Pacific Islander) are the largest populations in the city, but they have lower

rates of teachers and staff per 100 students (Figure 14).

Figure 14: Teacher and Staff Diversity (Same race per 100 students of same race)

Source: Advancement Project California. Race Counts. American Community Survey, 1-year estimates (2014-2015)

Income The median household income in South San Francisco in 2017 was $92,704, nearly $14,000 lower than San Mateo

County ($105,667) (Figure 15).

In South San Francisco, median household income varies significantly by race and ethnicity. Asian median

household income ($111,486) is more than two times higher than Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander median

household income ($49,667).18 Native Hawaiian Pacific Islanders make up one-percent of the city’s population

(991 residents) and are the only race citywide making less than 80% of the State median household income.19

18 Asians and Pacific Islanders are usually aggregated when conducting demographic analysis due to small sample sizes. The

populations were statistically reliable to disaggregate and we are able to see that these populations experience live in South

San Francisco differently. 19 The California Median Household Income (MHI) for ACS 2017-5 year is $67,169. 80% of the CA MHI is $53,735.

1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

White Black Asian Filipino Two or

More

Races

Pacific

Islander

Latino Native

American



Figure 15: Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity


Only 7% of people live under the poverty level in both the city and county. The city, however, has higher rates of

youth in households below the poverty level when compared to the county (Figure 16).

Figure 16: Youth and Older Adults in Households Below the Poverty Level

Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017) - S0901 and S0102

Geographically, higher income households are concentrated in Paradise Valley/Terra Bay, Winston Serra, Avalon,

and Westborough sub-areas. Figure 17 shows the distribution of median income households in the City,

including those households that make less than 80% of the state median household income. As previously

stated, a majority of residents in the Downtown sub-area make less than 80% of the state median income.

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

Total Asian

Alone

White

Alone

Two or

More

Races

Latino Other

Alone

Black

Alone

Native

Hawaiian

Pacific

Islander

AloneSouth San Francisco San Mateo County

9%8%

5%6%

South San Francisco San Mateo CountyYouth (under 17) Older Adults (60+)


Figure 17: Median Household Income by Census Block Group


This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends fromEast of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.


Housing Recent housing rent and sales price trends illustrate why changes in housing affordability are creating

community concerns about displacement and future access to housing for low- and moderate-income

households in South San Francisco. In general, changes in local housing costs are important indicators of

displacement risk because rent appreciation is a consistent predictor of displacement.20 Increases in home

prices also increase the likelihood of a landlord’s interest in selling a unit, potentially triggering renter evictions.

Although housing costs in South San Francisco are lower than the county overall, apartment rents and home

sales prices are rapidly growing in the city and county. According to real estate analytics and sales firm Redfin,

the median sales price per square foot of single family homes in South San Francisco increased 109% from 2012

to 2019 (from $383 to $799), compared to 123% in San Mateo County (from $386 to $861) (Figure 18). Apartment

rents per square foot in multifamily buildings increased by 46% in South San Francisco between the first quarter

of 2009 and the first quarter of 2019 (from $2.13 to $3.10), according to data available from CoStar (Figure 9). This

is slightly below the rate of increase in San Mateo County, where rents grew 51% (from $2.27 to $3.43).

Housing affordability challenges in South San Francisco were worsened by relatively slow growth of median

household incomes in both the city and San Mateo County. The median annual income in South San Francisco

only increased by 24% between 2010 and 2017, from $74,158 to $92,074.21

20 Zuk, Bierbaum, Chapple, Gorska, Loukaitou-Sideris (2017). Gentrification, Displacement, and the Role of Public Investment.

Journal of Planning Literature. 21 U.S. Census American Community Survey data via Social Explorer, 2006-2010 and 2013-2017 5-year estimates.


Figure 18: Median Single Family Home Sale Price per Square Foot

Source: Redfin, 2019; Strategic Economics, 2019.

Figure 19: Effective Monthly Rent per Square Foot for Multifamily Buildings

Source: Costar, 2019; Strategic Economics, 2019.

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,2001/

1/20

12

5/1/

2012

9/1/

2012

1/1/

2013

5/1/

2013

9/1/

2013

1/1/

2014

5/1/

2014

9/1/

2014

1/1/

2015

5/1/

2015

9/1/

2015

1/1/

2016

5/1/

2016

9/1/

2016

1/1/

2017

5/1/

2017

9/1/

2017

1/1/

2018

5/1/

2018

9/1/

2018

1/1/

2019

5/1/

2019


$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

2009

Q1

2009

Q3

2010

Q1

2010

Q3

2011

Q1

2011

Q3

2012

Q1

2012

Q3

2013

Q1

2013

Q3

2014

Q1

2014

Q3

2015

Q1

2015

Q3

2016

Q1

2016

Q3

2017

Q1

2017

Q3

2018

Q1

2018

Q3

2019

Q1

QT

D



Appendix Age by Neighborhood Chart

Sub-Area 0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+

# % # % # % # % # %

East of 101 0 0 0 0 0

Lindenville 0 0 0 0 0

Sign Hill 541 19.8 113 4.1 865 31.6 780 28.5 438 16

Orange Park 768 21.3 323 9.0 1115 30.9 962 26.7 440 12.2

Paradise

Valley/Terra

Bay 686 18.7 310 8.5 1056 28.8 1082 29.6 528 14.4

El Camino 703 16 345 7.9 1269 28.9 1245 28.3 832 18.9

Avalon 941 14.9 654 10.4 1768 28.1 1763 28 1178 18.7

Sunshine

Gardens 1359 19.5 787 11.3 2060 29.5 1765 25.3 1008 14.4

Winston

Serra 2309 21.2 629 5.8 2826 25.9 3285 30.1 1851 17

Downtown 3117 25.7 1018 8.4 4177 34.4 2568 21.1 1267 10.4

Westborough 2264 16.9 916 6.8 4051 30.2 3747 28 2426 18.1


Race by Neighborhood Chart

Sub-Area API Latino White Other Black

# % # % # % # % # %

East of 101 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 -

Lindenville 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 -

Sign Hill 939 34.8 1072 40 635 24 43 1.6 6 0.2

Orange Park 1320 37.8 1674 47.9 439 13 6 0.2 56 2

Paradise

Valley/Terra

Bay

1702 48 1333 37 501 14 17 0.5 25 1

El Camino 1644 39 1376 32 1129 27 3 0.1 98 2

Avalon 1969 34 1529 26 2251 38 0 0 101 2

Sunshine

Gardens 2686 40 2653 39.3 1246 18.47 69 1 93 1.4

Winston

Serra 4251 40 3150 30 3039 29 0 0 75 1

Downtown 1909 16 7949 68 1459 13 54 0.5 250 2

Westborough 9477 73 1207 9 1666 13 59 0.5 540 4



Percent of Population Identifying as Hispanic or Latino (of any race), by Block Group, 2017


This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends fromEast of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.


Percent of Population Identifying as Asian, by Block Group, 2017




Percent of Population Identifying as Black or African American, by Block Group, 2017




Percent of Population Identifying as Native American, Pacific Islander, Biracial, or Any Other Race, by Block Group, 2017



demographic and socio-economic trends · 2019. 11. 28. · census tracts boundaries based on...

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