demographic development: the challenges of globalization (the seventh valenteevskiye chteniya) 15-17...
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DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT: THE CHALLENGES OF GLOBALIZATION
(The Seventh Valenteevskiye Chteniya) 15-17 November 2012
Lomonosov Moscow State University
The ethnic transformation of European societies by immigration
David Coleman, University of [email protected]
http://www.spi.ox.ac.uk/oxpop
Immigration and the rise of ethnic minority populations in Europe.
Historically, Europe a region of emigration.Large-scale immigration in peacetime mostly from 1960s:
Guest-workers to some countriesEasy entry from former colonies – for a time.Subsequent entry of dependants and new spousesChain migration from non-European countries helped by ‘familist’ culture, large family size, revolutions in information, transport, rights.EU expansionRenewed recent interest in skilled migration
Policy important but erratic; many now restrictive
Some facilitating factors for migration
Unequal pace of economic development and demographic transition in ‘North’ and ‘South’.
Geographical proximity.Political / historical connections.Post-war ‘revolutions’ in transport, information and
rights.State policy in sending and receiving countries.Voting power of immigrant minoritiesInternational conventions.The ‘migration industry’ and trafficking.Factors reducing migration pressure.
Turkey and Western Europe
Population trends and projections, selected European countries and Turkey 1950-2050 (millions). Source: United Nations 2004-based estimates.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
France
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Turkey
Migration flows to European Union and USA, 1960 – 2011 (thousands)
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Net immigation to EU-15, EU27 countries, gross inflow to the USA, 1960 - 2011 and net inflow to USA 2001-2011 (thousands). Sources: Eurostat, US Dept of Homeland Security.
Net immigration to EU-15 countries
Persons accepted for permanent residence, USA (gross inflow)
Net immigration to EU27 countries
Gross migration flow to France 2005, by reason for admission (%).
France 2005. Immigration (gross inflow) according to reason for admission (percent).
PercentStudent Worker Family Other All by area
EEA 3 37 10 50 100 21Non-Europe 26 5 50 19 100 79
All 21 11 42 25 100 100Source: INED
Note: 'Other' includes inactive, retired, refugee. Percent by purpose excludes minors (about 8% of total).Switzerland and Turkey omitted. 12% of total; mostly Turkey, 39% for family reasons.
Long-term migration trends to the United Kingdom 1967 – 2011, UK and non-UK citizens.
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
UK net migration by citizenship 1967 - 2011 (thousands). Note: there are discontinuities in this series from 1991. Source: ONS International Migration Statistics Series
MN, ONS Statistical Bulletin, Migration Statistics 2019.
Foreign citizens
Foreign citizens (post 1991)
UK citizens
UK Citizens (post 1991)
Net migration to selected European countries 1997 – 2011
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Net migration, selected European countries 1997 - 2011, thousands. Source: Eurostat
Denmark
Germany
France
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Net migration to Italy and Spain 1997 – 2011. Note: increase primarily due to illegal immigration and regularisation of illegal
residence through amnesties.
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Net migration, Spain and Italy, 1997 - 2011 (thousands). Source: Eurostat.
Spain
Italy
Migration can go down as well as up. Germany 1954 – 2007.
Migration to Germany 1954 - 2007, by citizenship. Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden. Up to 1990 German Federal Republic only.
- 300 000
- 200 000
- 100 000
-
+ 100 000
+ 200 000
+ 300 000
+ 400 000
+ 500 000
+ 600 000
+ 700 000
+ 800 000
1954
2)
1956
2)
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Net migrationGermans including aussiedlerForeignersGermans without aussiedler net flow
Ethnic change
Continued migration from one population, into another with sub-replacement fertility, must eventually replace one with the other.
If incoming populations have higher fertility, the process will be accelerated.
Migration, not differential fertility, is usually the dominant factor in ethnic transition.
Estimates of foreign origin and immigrant
population, selected European countries. Sources: national statistical offices
Numbers of foreign citizens, and immigrants, enumerated in selected European countries, around 2009
Foreign‘Foreign ‘Foreign ImmigrantsImmigrants citizens as
Population Origin’ Origin’ as percent ofpercent ofMillions (millions) (percent) (millions) total pop. immigrants
Austria 2011 8.4 n.a. n.a 1.00 11.9 92.4Belgium 2007 10.6 n.a n.a 1.38 13.0 70.4Denmark 2011 5.6 0.57 10.2 0.43 7.7 80.7Finland 2010 5.4 n.a n.a 0.25 4.6 67.7France 2008 64.0 n.a n.a 5.34 8.4 69.5Germany 2009 81.9 16.04 19.6 10.60 12.9 67.3N'lands 2011 16.7 3.43 20.6 1.78 10.7 42.7Portugal 2007 10.6 n.a n.a 0.65 6.1 68.9Spain 2007 44.9 n.a n.a 6.00 13.4 72.4Sweden 2009 8.0 1.73 21.7 1.34 16.7 45.1UK 2010 61.4 10.24 16.7 7.14 11.6 62.5
Selected European populations, percent of residents born abroad, 2010. Source: Eurostat
16.315.315.2
14.314.013.9
12.712.4
12.011.3
11.111.111.111.0
10.89.0
8.07.5
6.54.44.3
3.81.2
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
EstoniaLatvia
AustriaSweden
SpainBelgium
IrelandSlovenia
GermanyUnited Kingdom
FranceGreece
NetherlandsIcelandNorway
DenmarkItaly
PortugalLithuaniaHungary
FinlandCzech Republic
Poland
Series1
Relative size of live births and natural increase in 2010, selected countries
Selected Western countries Comparisons of live births, net immigration and natural increase 2010
Net migration
Population Live Natural Net as percent
1st Jan 2010 births increase migration of births
data in thousands
Switzerland 7786 80 13 61 75Belgium 10840 127 23 89 70Norway 4858 61 17 42 69Italy 60340 562 -7 312 55Austria 8375 79 2 27 35Denmark 5535 63 9 17 27UK 62027 807 246 163 20Germany 81802 678 -181 130 19Spain 45989 485 107 60 12France mét 62791 802 262 75 9Greece 11305 115 6 -1 -1Total of above 361648 3860 495 975 25
Australia 22696 293 149 176 60Canada 34108 381 127 216 57New Zealand 4370 64 35 10 16United States 298363 4217 1840 844 20
Special features of migration to the former Soviet Union
Russian Empire / Soviet Union / Russian Federation facilitated internal migration and creation of minority populations.
International migration minimal from 1920s
‘Return’ migration of Russian nationals from 1992
Recent large-scale migration of non-Russians from ‘near abroad’ and China, regular and irregular.
Foreign citizen population now 8.7%
TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965 – 2006data from Labour Force Survey by own-child method, 7-year moving averages
TFR ethnic minorities, UK 1965 - 2006 from LFS by own-child method; seven-year moving averages
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
White
Black-Caribbean
Black-African
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Chinese
Convergence in fertility: total fertility of Pakistani
women in the UK by birthplace. Source: Coleman and Dubuc 2010.
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99
period
TFR
and
95%
con
fide
nce
inte
rval
Pakistani-born women in UK
All UK Pakistani women
UK-born Pakistani women
Indian population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)
5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90 +
percent of population
females males
Pakistani population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)
7.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 7.00
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90 +
percent of population
males females
Ethnic change in the USA, projected 1999 - 2100 (thousands)
US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, ethnic group. Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.
0.000
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
2053
2056
2059
2062
2065
2068
2071
2074
2077
2080
2083
2086
2089
2092
2095
2098
Hispanic White non-Hispanic Black NH American Indian NH Asian and Pacific NH
A projection of ethnic transformation in the UK 2006 – 2056. TFR = 1.84, net immigration = 180,000 / year. Source: Coleman 2010.
Sweden 1980 – 2020. Foreign-born and ‘foreign
origin’ population, as percent of total population.
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Foreign -born and foreign origin population in Sweden, 1980 - 2020, percent of total population. Source: Statistics Sweden 2003
Foreign birthplace
Foreign background
Comparison of results of ‘foreign-origin’ or ‘ethnic minority’ projections in Western countries
Projected growth of population of immigrant origin 2000-2050, selected countries, percent of total population. Red/brown - English speaking world. Green - European.
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
perc
ent
United States 2008-basedUK 2006-based projection with ethnic shiftCanada 2001-basedNew Zealand 2005-based UK 2006-based non-white onlyNetherlands 2009-basedNorway 2009-basedGermany medium variantAustria low immigration no naturalisationDenmark 2009-based
UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and origin Assumptions for total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006 (net migration 190K;
TFR 1.84)
UK population 2051 projection by age and origin (1000s).Assumptions for total population: migration, TFR as in GAD Principal Projection 2008.
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Males British origin Males foreign originFemales British origin Females foreign origin
Other transformations: ethnic groups of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001(thousands).
Source: 2001 Census.
All born in born born in born % of % of
birth- UK overseas UK overseas total non-white
places (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) pop. pop.
All Mixed groups 661.0 524.3 136.7 79.3 20.7 1.3 14.6W/ Black Caribbean 237.4 222.9 14.5 93.9 6.1 0.5 5.3W/ Black African 78.9 52.9 26.0 67.1 32.9 0.2 1.7W/Asian 189.0 144.5 44.6 76.4 23.6 0.4 4.2Other mixed 155.7 104.0 51.7 66.8 33.2 0.3 3.4
The faces of the future?
Current unions outside own group, Great Britain 1991-96, 1997-02 (percent).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Black-Caribbean
Black-African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese
perc
ent
Women 1991-1996 Women 1997-2002 Men 1991-1996 Men 1997-2002
An end to ‘ethnic’ categories? The rise of mixed populations.Probabilistic projections of the UK 2001- 2100, average outcome for major groups
(percent).
UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic group in the total population, 2001 - 2100.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
White
Black
Asian
Mixed
Projected growth of ethnically mixed population in the absence of migration, UK 2006 – 2056.
Concluding points on ethnic change
Migration from developing world may be over within a century (?); but effects on ancestry permanent.
Migration the key driver; in theory under policy control.An inevitable consequence of globalisation?Significance for social and political change: religion, identity,
segregation, language, law, foreign policy? (depends on numbers, pace, origins, policy).
Integration / assimilation, or ‘community of communities’? And who adapts to whom?
Inter-ethnic union may change relative group size, eventually create a completely new mixed population.