demographic profile - park hill school...

Demographic Profile 2012-2013

Prepared by the Business Services Department of the

Park Hill School District &

Business Informa�on Services, LLC

March 2013

GR

AD

E L

EV

EL

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

K

Pre-K

GFEEC RJEC CHE ELE GRE HAW LCE PPE REE SEE TRE UCE CMS LMS PMS PHHS PHS

PARK HILL SCHOOLS

1

2012-2013 Demographic Profile of the

Park Hill School District

March, 2013

Prepared by the Business Services Department of the Park Hill School District

and Business Information Services, LLC

This document is available for download at http://www.parkhill.k12.mo.us/

District Information – Demographic Profile

2012-2013 Board of Education Members

President – Todd Fane

Vice President – Susan Newburger

Treasurer – Janice Bolin

Member – Todd Burr

Member - Boon Lee

Member – Chris Seufert

Member – Allison Wurst

http://www.parkhill.k12.mo.us/

2

This Page Left Intentionally Blank

3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 About The 2012-2013 Demographic Profile ........................................................................................................ 5 About The Park Hill School District ..................................................................................................................... 6 District Geography ............................................................................................................................................. 6 District Municipalities ........................................................................................................................................ 7 District Maps ...................................................................................................................................................... 7

Map Of Area School Districts ................................................................................................................................. 9 Map Of Park Hill School District Municpalities .................................................................................................... 10 Aerial Overview Map Of Park Hill School District ................................................................................................ 11 Zip Codes within Park Hill School District Boundaries ......................................................................................... 12 Map Of 2012-2013 Park Hill School District Boundaries ..................................................................................... 13

Demographic Comparisons – Benchmark School Districts ................................................................................ 14 Benchmark Population Data ................................................................................................................................ 14 Benchmark Enrollment Data................................................................................................................................ 15 Benchmark Demographic Data ............................................................................................................................ 15 Benchmark School Finance Data ......................................................................................................................... 16

STUDENT ENROLLMENT ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Historical Enrollment Data ............................................................................................................................... 17

Student Enrollment Table By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1989 -2013) .............................................................. 18 Student Enrollment Chart By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1989 -2013) .............................................................. 19 Annual Growth In Student Enrollment – 25-Year Historical (1989-2013) ........................................................... 20

Current Enrollment .......................................................................................................................................... 22 District Enrollment (2012-2013) .......................................................................................................................... 24 School Enrollment Distribution (2012-2013) ....................................................................................................... 25 Grade Level Distribution (2012-2013) ................................................................................................................. 26 Student Geographic Distribution (2012-2013) .................................................................................................... 27 Student Density (2012-2013) ............................................................................................................................... 28 Grade Level Distribution & Cohort Growth Since Kindergarten - 2012-2013 Enrollment ................................... 29 Cohort Growth –Kindergarten Through 12

th Grade – Class of 2013 .................................................................... 30

Diversity Of Enrollment (2012-2013) ................................................................................................................... 31 Growth of Diverse Populations (2004-2013) ....................................................................................................... 32 Diverse Populations By School (2012-2013) ........................................................................................................ 34 Growth In Free OR Reduced Lunch Population* (2004-2013) ............................................................................. 35 Free OR Reduced Lunch Population By School* (2012-2013) ............................................................................. 36 Park Hill School District Mobility Data ................................................................................................................. 37

SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA ..................................................................................................................... 41 Platte County Live Birthrates & Kindergarten Enrollments ............................................................................... 41

Collecting Birthrate Data ..................................................................................................................................... 41 Birthrate & Kindergarten Class Size Data ............................................................................................................ 41 Household Data ................................................................................................................................................... 42 New Households Within The School District – 10 Year History ........................................................................... 43 School Age Children Within Park Hill School District Households ....................................................................... 44

FUTURE ENROLLMENT ......................................................................................................................................... 45 Projection Methods ......................................................................................................................................... 45

Cohort Survival Method....................................................................................................................................... 45 Household Projections Method ........................................................................................................................... 48

Student Enrollment Projections ....................................................................................................................... 51 Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Table ............................................................................................... 51 Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Graph .............................................................................................. 52

4

Building Need .................................................................................................................................................. 53 Maximum & Effective Capacities ......................................................................................................................... 53 Square Footage Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 58 2012-2013 Square Footage Analysis Table (By Building) ..................................................................................... 59

Future District Growth Trends .......................................................................................................................... 64 Total Population of the Park Hill School District (2010) ...................................................................................... 65 Estimated Percent Change In Population (2010-2022) ....................................................................................... 66 Students New To Park Hill School District (2012-2013) ....................................................................................... 67 Children Under the Age of 5 (2010) ..................................................................................................................... 68 Estimated Change In Children Under the Age of 5 (2010-2022) ......................................................................... 69

5

INTRODUCTION

ABOUT THE 2012-2013 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

The purpose of the 2012-2013 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District is to provide Park Hill

School District patrons, business leaders, civic organizations and other interested persons detailed

demographic and socioeconomic information about the Park Hill School District and Park Hill

community. The demographic profile includes historical information, current trends, and future

enrollment projections that assist district leaders in annual budgeting, review of district attendance

boundaries, and long-range planning efforts.

Enrollment data presented in this report was compiled from Park Hill School District core data and

through historical figures maintained by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary

Education. Data used in this report comes from multiple sources, including:

2000 decennial Census compiled by the Missouri Census Data Center

2010 decennial Census compiled by the US Census Bureau

Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services

Platte County Assessor’s Office

Platte County Planning and Zoning Department

Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City

Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI)

SRC, LLC Demographics Now

POPSTATS and AGS demographic data, provided by Decision Data Resources, Geographic Enterprises and Tactician Corp.

ESRI demographic data, ESRI, Inc.

National Center for Education Statistics

Planning and GIS departments at the City of Parkville, City of Kansas City and Riverside

NCSS statistical software

Missouri Spatial Data Information Service

For the purposes of this report, the Park Hill School District has partnered with Business Information

Services, LLC of Blue Springs, Missouri. Business Information Services, LLC is a Missouri-registered

Limited Liability Corporation, owned by Preston Smith. The firm has completed more than 100 in-depth

demographic studies throughout the country for public school districts.

This report is divided into four major parts: (1) Introduction (2) Student Enrollment, (3) Supporting

Demographic Data, and (4) Future Enrollment.

6

ABOUT THE PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT

The Park Hill School District, formally organized in 1951 under the provisions of Missouri’s School

Reorganization Statute of 1948, encompasses 71 square miles located in the southern third of Platte

County, located just north of downtown Kansas City, Missouri. Park Hill is a public school district, with

pre‐kindergarten (pre-K) programs through grade 12. As of the Fall of 2012, the district includes ten

elementary schools, three middle schools (including a sixth grade center), two high schools, a day

treatment school (Russell Jones Education Center), and a 40,000 square foot Early Childhood Education

Center (Gerner Family Early Education Center). Other support facilities include a district Aquatic Center,

Underground Support Services, and the District Office.

Park Hill provides comprehensive educational services for students in pre-K through grade 12.

Specifically, two district high schools provide comprehensive educational services for students in grades

9-12. Three district middle schools (including a 6th grade center) provide comprehensive educational

services for students in grades 6-8. Ten district elementary schools provide comprehensive educational

services for students in grades K-5. The Russell Jones Education Center provides educational services in a

day treatment setting for K-12 students with special needs.

Park Hill School District’s (PHSD’s) Gerner Family Early Education Center (GFEEC) provides fee-based

educational services for pre-K students (ages 3-5), early childhood special education (ECSE) students,

and English Language Learners (ELL), and supports Parents as Teachers (PAT).

The district also offers an array of community services including Adventure Club (Day Care), Community

Education and a district Aquatic facility.

DISTRICT GEOGRAPHY

The school district, formally organized in 1951 under

the provisions of Missouri’s School Reorganization

Statute of 1948, encompasses 71 square miles

located in the southern third of Platte County,

situated just north of downtown Kansas City,

Missouri. The Missouri River forms the southern and

western boundaries of the district and also

delineates the state line between Missouri and

Kansas. The northern boundary gerrymanders in

stair-step fashion from Northwest 76th Street and

the Clay County line to Northwest 120th Street, the

northern most point of the district. The northern

7

boundary divides the Kansas City International Airport, with one of the three airport terminals lying

within district boundaries, and the remaining portions of the airport lying within the Platte County R-3

School District, the neighboring district to the north.

DISTRICT MUNICIPALITIES

Predominantly rural-oriented in the past, the district has steadily changed to a more suburban type

district, blending both residential and commercial growth. Approximately 43% of the school district lies

within the city limits of Kansas City, Missouri. There are seven other incorporated communities:

Riverside, Parkville, Houston Lake, Lake Waukomis, Weatherby Lake, Platte Woods, Northmoor, and the

unincorporated communities of Waldron and Platte County. The 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census counts for

each of these communities is listed in the table below. In addition, estimates of the 2012 population are

aslo provided.

Community 2000

Population 2010

Population

Estimated

2012 Population

% Growth 2000-2012

Parkville 4,189 5,554 5,622 34.2%

Lake Waukomis 918 870 887 -3.4%

Kansas City (within Park Hill District only) 33,270 37,100 38,544 15.9%

Houston Lake 284 235 232 -18.3%

Northmoor 399 325 323 -19.0%

Riverside 2,979 2,937 3,014 1.2%

Platte Woods 474 385 397 -16.2%

Unincorporated Platte County (estimated) 9,899 13,132 13,050 31.8%

Weatherby Lake 1,873 1,723 1,777 -5.1%

Park Hill School District 54,285 62,261 63,846 17.6%

* Source US Census and ESRI Demographics Data

Estimated 2012 population analysis shows that a 17.6 percent population growth in the Park Hill School

District. This is strong, and nearly twice the national population growth rate during the last decade.

Parkville, the City of Kansas City, and unincorporated Platte County are areas that have had the greatest

growth rates in the district.

Homes that are presently being built in the area range from $150,000 to more than $1,000,000.

DISTRICT MAPS

The following pages include the following maps of the Park Hill School District: Map of Area School Districts. This map shows school districts that surround the Park Hill School District on both sides of the state line and the interstates.

8

Map of Park Hill School District Municipalities. This map shows the geography of the eight municipalities included within the Park Hill School District. Unincorporated sections of Platte County within the district boundaries are also included. Aerial Overview Map of Park Hill School District. This map shows the aerial geography of the municipalities included within the Park Hill School District. Unincorporated sections of Platte County within the district boundaries are also included. Zip Codes within Park Hill School District Boundaries. This map overlays the US Postal Service Zip Codes within the Park Hill School District.

Map of 2012-2013 Park Hill School District Boundaries. This map shows the Park Hill School District

school boundaries as of April, 2012 when the boundaries were last changed.

9

MAP OF AREA SCHOOL DISTRICTS

10

MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT MUNICPALITIES

11

AERIAL OVERVIEW MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT

12

ZIP CODES WITHIN PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES

13

MAP OF 2012-2013 PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES

14

DEMOGRAPHIC COMPARISONS – BENCHMARK SCHOOL DISTRICTS

The Park Hill School District utilizes eleven other suburban Kansas City, Missouri school districts to benchmark statistics throughout the organization, including Academic Services (i.e. student achievement scores), Human Resources (i.e. employee compensation), and Business Services (i.e. tax rates). The following tables compare Park Hill to these benchmark districts in various demographic categories. This data is collected by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and the U.S. Census Bureau.

BENCHMARK POPULATION DATA

This table provides values and relative ranks for various population data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green.

School District Area Square

Miles Total Population

(2000)

Est. Total Population

(2012) % Population

Growth 2000-2012

2012 Estimated Percent

Population 17 years old or

younger

Blue Springs 53.9 (7) 66,230 (4) 77,243 (4) 16.6% (5) 26.3% (5)

Center 11.6 (12) 26,770 (10) 25,004 (11) -6.6% (12) 18.7% (12)

Fort Osage 115.5 (1) 23,160 (11) 25,036 (10) 8.1% (7) 27.2% (3)

Grandview 37.4 (9) 31,240 (9) 32,264 (9) 3.3% (8) 23.7% (8)

Hickman Mills 29.1 (11) 49,315 (7) 47,364 (8) -4.0% (11) 27.0% (4)

Independence 42.7 (8) 91,992 (2) 94,182 (2) 2.4% (9) 22.1% (11)

Lee's Summit 113.8 (2) 72,870 (3) 91,654 (3) 25.8% (3) 27.5% (2)

Liberty 82.5 (5) 34,285 (8) 55,398 (7) 61.6% (2) 29.2% (1)

North Kansas City 84.5 (4) 112,920 (1) 126,132 (1) 11.7% (6) 23.5% (9)

Park Hill 71.1 (6) 54,285 (6) 63,849 (5) 17.6% (4) 24.6% (6)

Platte County 98.9 (3) 13,520 (12) 23,729 (12) 75.5% (1) 24.0% (7)

Raytown 32.1 (10) 59,265 (5) 58,780 (6) -0.8% (10) 23.1% (10)

15

BENCHMARK ENROLLMENT DATA

The table below provides values and relative ranks for school enrollment data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green.

School District 1999-2000 School

Enrollment 2012-2013 School

Enrollment % Enrollment Growth

1999-2013

2010 Census--Percentage of School-Age Children Living in

the District Who Attend District Schools

2010

Blue Springs 12,639 (3) 14,022 (3) 10.9% (6) 91.8% (1)

Center 2,751 (11) 2,327 (12) -15.4% (11) 49.5% (12)

Fort Osage 4,891 (9) 4,855 (9) -0.7% (9) 66.9% (4)

Grandview 4,363 (10) 3,846 (10) -11.8% (10) 50.7% (10)

Hickman Mills 7,515 (7) 6,349 (8) -15.5% (12) 50.4% (11)

Independence 11,347 (4) 13,924 (4) 22.7% (4) 62.6% (7)

Lee's Summit 14,043 (2) 17,559 (2) 25.0% (3) 67.1% (3)

Liberty 6,633 (8) 11,282 (5) 70.1% (2) 65.7% (5)

North Kansas City 17,378 (1) 18,927 (1) 8.9% (7) 62.0% (8)

Park Hill 8,864 (5) 10,448 (6) 17.9% (5) 88.0% (2)

Platte County 1,957 (12) 3,715 (11) 89.8% (1) 60.8% (9)

Raytown 8,483 (6) 8,540 (7) 0.7% (8) 63.1% (6)

BENCHMARK DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

The following table provides values and relative ranks for household data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green.

School District 2012 Est. Average

Household Size Est. 2012 Average Household Income

Est. 2012 Estimated College Graduate or Professional Degree

Est. 2012 Estimated Median Home Value

Blue Springs 2.6 (4) $81,996 (3) 41.5% (6) $175,610 (5)

Center 2.0 (12) $53,759 (10) 41.8% (5) $141,226 (6)

Fort Osage 2.8 (1) $56,965 (8) 19.9% (12) $125,083 (9)

Grandview 2.5 (6) $62,642 (7) 36.2% (7) $137,922 (8)

Hickman Mills 2.5 (5) $51,603 (11) 25.8% (10) $105,118 (12)

Independence 2.3 (11) $50,192 (12) 22.1% (11) $110,628 (11)

Lee's Summit 2.7 (3) $85,310 (2) 46.3% (3) $190,260 (2)

Liberty 2.7 (2) $80,632 (4) 46.7% (1) $181,663 (4)

North Kansas City 2.4 (8) $66,211 (6) 34.4% (8) $138,995 (7)

Park Hill 2.5 (6) $86,836 (1) 46.6% (2) $183,191 (3)

Platte County 2.4 (10) $78,390 (5) 43.0% (4) $192,214 (1)

Raytown 2.4 (9) $56,747 (9) 30.0% (9) $116,681 (10)

16

BENCHMARK SCHOOL FINANCE DATA

The table below provides values and relative ranks for school finance data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green.

School District 2011-2012 Levy

Adjusted

Total Assessed Valuation as of

December 31, 2011

Unrestricted Ending Fund

Balance (Incidental +

Teachers Funds) on June 30, 2012

% Funding from Local Sources

2011-2012 (Excludes Bond &

Debt Service Revenues)

Current Expenditures Per Average

Daily Attendance 2011-2012

Blue Springs $5.7286 (8) $1,216,723,859 (4) 31.7% (2) 74.1% (4) $8,641 (12)

Center $6.5751 (1) $386,553,164 (10) 22.9% (6) 87.0% (1) $13,274 (1)

Fort Osage $5.5000 (10) $259,002,207 (12) 31.4% (3) 44.0% (11) $9,394 (7)

Grandview $5.8936 (6) $424,351,578 (9) 20.2% (8) 64.2% (7) $11,586 (2)

Hickman Mills $6.3217 (2) $365,277,816 (11) 13.5% (12) 42.1% (12) $11,238 (3)

Independence $5.5800 (9) $931,212,531 (5) 18.7% (10) 47.8% (10) $9,118 (9)

Lee's Summit $6.1050 (4) $1,620,817,669 (2) 33.0% (1) 71.7% (5) $8,954 (10)

Liberty $6.0950 (5) $758,722,958 (6) 19.1% (9) 63.2% (8) $9,285 (8)

North Kansas City $5.8898 (7) $1,860,080,168 (1) 22.9% (5) 77.2% (3) $9,725 (5)

Park Hill $5.4133 (11) $1,439,746,071 (3) 21.0% (7) 79.8% (2) $10,161 (4)

Platte County $4.5288 (12) $425,043,543 (8) 17.5% (11) 71.5% (6) $8,831 (11)

Raytown $6.3200 (3) $617,339,470 (7) 23.6% (4) 56.5% (9) $9,447 (6)

17

STUDENT ENROLLMENT

In this section of the 2012-2013 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District historical enrollment data is depicted in various tables and graphs. In addition, data on district housing and birthrates are shared in order to establish trends relevant to enrollment growth in future years.

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA

This section includes the following tables, charts, and graphs: Student Enrollment Table By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1989-2013). This table summarizes official enrollment in the district over the last twenty-five years. Student Enrollment Chart By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1989-2013). This graph represents enrollment and enrollment growth over the last twenty-five years. Annual Growth in Student Enrollment – 25-Year Historical (1989-2013). This graph represents enrollment growth (number of students) over the last twenty-five years.

18

STUDENT ENROLLMENT TABLE BY GRADE – 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1989 -2013)

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Un-

graded K-

5Total 6 7 8

MiddleSchoolTotal 9 10 11 12

High SchoolTotal

Grand Total

1988-89 475 514 529 496 556 527 0 3,097 539 472 490 1,501 556 515 540 565 2176 6,774

1989-90 552 530 517 557 511 571 28 3,266 537 547 494 1,578 517 567 503 531 2118 6,962

1990-91 537 590 532 514 573 523 10 3,279 606 548 554 1,708 518 531 548 505 2102 7,089

1991-92 557 613 589 552 523 597 11 3,442 551 618 555 1,724 603 516 501 546 2166 7,332

1992-93 589 622 618 610 577 538 6 3,560 643 585 633 1,861 590 636 508 520 2254 7,675

1993-94 642 601 621 619 647 595 0 3,725 572 671 628 1,871 639 585 574 519 2317 7,913

1994-95 586 659 627 629 649 667 0 3,817 615 575 671 1,861 631 628 561 552 2372 8,050

1995-96 623 630 695 621 646 636 0 3,851 684 605 586 1,875 687 633 631 543 2494 8,220

1996-97 634 652 635 694 599 661 0 3,875 635 709 595 1,939 612 705 608 579 2504 8,318

1997-98 667 670 651 634 713 603 0 3,938 673 663 705 2,041 617 627 692 557 2493 8,472

1998-99 646 694 679 660 635 739 0 4,053 642 697 665 2,004 753 624 629 589 2595 8,652

1999-00 658 686 690 730 690 664 0 4,118 746 653 722 2,121 710 742 611 556 2619 8,858

2000-01 609 669 693 708 737 698 0 4,114 674 770 661 2,105 758 724 748 555 2785 9,004

2001-02 640 659 685 692 726 750 0 4,152 738 685 799 2,222 700 737 694 666 2797 9,171

2002-03 719 679 682 686 700 745 0 4,211 771 753 684 2,208 829 707 738 650 2924 9,343

2003-04 688 747 704 656 708 703 0 4,206 775 788 765 2,328 719 814 684 709 2926 9,460

2004-05 713 670 740 718 659 696 0 4,196 726 770 799 2,295 806 709 804 688 3007 9,498

2005-06 676 727 695 742 724 687 0 4,251 722 756 795 2,273 839 798 692 795 3124 9,648

2006-07 706 711 721 716 742 747 0 4,343 739 763 787 2,289 842 828 765 698 3133 9,765

2007-08 704 740 721 748 742 755 0 4,410 765 767 759 2,291 826 810 796 746 3178 9,879

2008-09 727 745 761 750 773 758 0 4,514 788 799 783 2,370 822 801 798 801 3222 10,106

2009-10 705 766 764 787 760 794 0 4,576 762 781 805 2,348 831 812 798 794 3235 10,159

2010-11 745 713 776 786 780 768 0 4,568 784 787 803 2,374 855 813 793 796 3257 10,199

2011-12 753 740 725 793 793 790 0 4,594 781 820 787 2,388 858 847 811 801 3317 10,299

2012-13 771 793 769 747 824 805 0 4,709 810 825 824 2,459 830 843 817 790 3280 10,448

** highlighted cells (red) denote the largest enrollments for each column

19

STUDENT ENROLLMENT CHART BY GRADE – 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1989 -2013)

6,774

7,332

8,050

8,472

9,004

9,460 9,765

10,159 10,448

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,0001

98

8-8

9

19

89

-90

19

90

-91

19

91

-92

19

92

-93

19

93

-94

19

94

-95

19

95

-96

19

96

-97

19

97

-98

19

98

-99

19

99

-00

20

00

-01

20

01

-02

20

02

-03

20

03

-04

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

20

06

-07

20

07

-08

20

08

-09

20

09

-10

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

Stu

de

nt

Enro

llme

nt

School Year

20

ANNUAL GROWTH IN STUDENT ENROLLMENT – 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1989-2013)

32

188

127

243

343

238

137

170

98

154

180

206

146

167 172

117

38

150

117 114

227

53

40

100

149

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Stu

den

t En

rollm

ent

Ch

ange

fro

m P

rio

r Ye

ar

School Years

Note: Park Hill student enrollment has not decreased from prior year since 1983-1984

21

This Page Left Intentionally Blank

22

CURRENT ENROLLMENT

In this section of the 2012-2013 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District shows data collected on the state’s official student count day and is reflected in various tables, charts and graphs. The Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education has established the annual official enrollment count as the number of students in grades K-12 enrolled on the last Wednesday in September of each year. A second enrollment count is taken in January of each year by all Missouri school districts but is not a part of this report.

The student enrollment value should not be confused with the rate of pupil attendance or average daily attendance (ADA), which is the total hours of student attendance divided by the total hours school is in session. In addition, the state utilizes a third measure to calculate student population – membership. Membership totals are used to differentiate full-time students from part-time. The membership of a student is reported as a full-time equivalency (FTE), such that a student enrolled the last Wednesday of September for 6 hours of a 6 hour day would be reported as a 1.00 FTE for September membership. If that same student was enrolled for 2 hours of a 6 hour day the last Wednesday of January, the January membership would be 0.33 FTE.

For the purposes of this report and the projections made at the conclusion of the report, the September enrollment count has been utilized as the benchmark for comparison from year to year. Any exceptions to this are highlighted throughout the report.

This section includes the following tables, charts, and graphs:

District Enrollment (2012-2013). This table summarizes enrollment by school and by grade level.

School Enrollment Distribution (2012-2013). This graph summarizes enrollment by school.

Grade Level Distribution (2012-2013). This graph summarizes enrollment by grade level.

Student Geographic Distribution (2012-2013). This map plots all students from the 2012-2013 school year on a district map.

Student Density (2012-2013). This shows the density of students enrolled from the 2012-2013 school year on a district map.

Grade Level Distribution & Cohort Growth Since Kindergarten - 2012-2013 Enrollment. This graph represents a key concept in projecting student enrollment – “cohort growth”. This graph shows current enrollment by grade level, and also includes the size of the same cohort when they were kindergarteners. As depicted in the graph, Park Hill School District classes generally increase in size as they pass from grade level to grade level.

23

Cohort Growth – Kindergarten through 12th Grade – Class of 2013. The graph shows the cohort change over the last 13 years of the current graduating class, beginning when they were kindergarteners.

Diversity of Enrollment (2012-2013). This pie chart presents the diversity of the 2012-2013 student population.

Growth of Diverse Populations (2004-2013). This graph and corresponding data table shows the increase of diverse populations over the last ten years.

Diverse Populations by School (2012-2013). This graph illustrates the percentage of non-white students within each school.

Growth in Free or Reduced Lunch Population (2004-2013). Monitoring students who receive a free or reduced lunch is a common way for schools and districts to reflect the socioeconomic status of the students and families in the district. This graph shows the increases in the free or reduced population over the last ten years. For the purpose of this annual report and to be consistent with state reporting, the district has utilized the official January membership count to compare free or reduced values.

Free or Reduced Lunch Population by School (2012-2013). This graph illustrates the percentage of free or reduced students within each school. For the purposes of this annual report, the district has utilized the official January count to compare free or reduced values.

24

DISTRICT ENROLLMENT (2012-2013)

Elementary Schools

Grade Chinn

English

Landing Graden Hawthorn Line Creek Prairie Point Renner Southeast Tiffany Ridge

Union

Chapel Russell Jones TOTAL

K 90 79 73 69 83 73 57 81 97 69 0 771

1 77 114 85 67 67 94 59 65 82 81 2 793

2 72 77 75 87 71 75 61 71 96 83 1 769

3 77 89 82 79 76 65 59 64 76 78 2 747

4 72 73 89 96 87 93 61 80 82 88 3 824

5 89 99 82 71 72 79 65 65 83 95 5 805

TOTAL 477 531 486 469 456 479 362 426 516 494 13 4709

Middle Schools High School

Russell Park Hill Park Hill Russell

Grade Plaza Congress Lakeview Jones TOTAL Grade High School South Jones TOTAL

6 807 3 810 9 448 380 2 830

7 436 383 6 825 10 425 417 1 843

8 438 383 3 824 11 408 402 7 817

TOTAL 807 874 766 12 2459 12 431 354 5 790

TOTAL 1712 1553 15 3280

District Total

Russell Jones Education Center Increase from Previous Year

Grade Russell Jones

K-12 40

Total (included

in the above

numbers)

10,448

149

25

SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DISTRIBUTION (2012-2013)

477 531

486 469 456 479

362 426

516 494

807 766

874

1,712

1,553

40

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Stu

de

nt

Enro

llme

nt

26

GRADE LEVEL DISTRIBUTION (2012-2013)

771

793

769

747

824

805 810 825 824 830

843

817

790

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Stu

de

nt

Enro

llme

nt

Grade Level

Projected 742-745 Kindergarteners in 2011-2012 Demographic Profile

* denotes largest grade-level cohort in district history

Class of 676 as Kindergartener in 2005-2006 (22% Growth(

*

*

*

* *

* * *

27

STUDENT GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION (2012-2013)

28

STUDENT DENSITY (2012-2013)

29

GRADE LEVEL DISTRIBUTION & COHORT GROWTH SINCE KINDERGARTEN - 2012-2013 ENROLLMENT

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Stu

den

t En

rollm

ent

2012-2013 Enrollment Class Size as Kindergarteners

For example, Park Hill's current 4th grade class of 824 began as a class of 727 as kindergarteners in 2008-2009

30

COHORT GROWTH –KINDERGARTEN THROUGH 12TH GRADE – CLASS OF 2013

669 685 686

708 696 722

763 759

822 812 793 801 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2000-2001(K)

2001-2002(1)

2002-2003(2)

2003-2004(3)

2004-2005(4)

2005-2006(5)

2006-2007(6)

2007-2008(7)

2008-2009(8)

2009-2010(9)

2010-2011(10)

2011-2012(11)

2012-2013(12)

Co

ho

rt G

row

th o

f C

urr

en

t 1

2th

Gra

de

Cla

ss

Year/Grade

31

DIVERSITY OF ENROLLMENT (2012-2013)

White 71.5%

African American 10.4%

Hispanic 9.0%

Asian 3.2%

Native American 0.5%

Pacific Islander 1.2%

Multi Racial 4.2%

32

GROWTH OF DIVERSE POPULATIONS (2004-2013)

CHART 1

2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013

Multi Racial 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.2%

Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2%

Native American 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%

Asian 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%

Hispanic 4.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.5% 6.0% 6.1% 6.6% 8.6% 8.7% 9.0%

African American 7.6% 8.7% 9.0% 9.6% 10.0% 10.7% 11.3% 10.5% 10.7% 10.4%

White 84.4% 83.0% 82.0% 80.3% 79.2% 78.0% 76.9% 72.5% 71.7% 71.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f En

rollm

ent

by

Eth

nic

ity

33

CHART 2

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2003-2004 2012-2013

Stu

de

nt

Enro

llme

nt

School Years

Multi Racial

Pacific Islander

Native American

Asian

Hispanic

African American

White

34

DIVERSE POPULATIONS BY SCHOOL (2012-2013)

36.9%

25.2%

19.5% 17.9%

34.6%

26.1%

37.8% 37.6%

43.8%

16.3%

28.9%

33.2%

25.2%

32.2%

21.4%

26.2%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

% M

ino

rity

Po

pu

lati

on

s o

f 2

01

2-2

01

3 E

nro

llme

nt

District Average 28.5%

35

GROWTH IN FREE OR REDUCED LUNCH POPULATION* (2004-2013)

16.7%

18.4% 18.3% 19.3%

20.8%

22.1%

23.8%

25.1%

27.2%

28.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013

% o

f D

istr

ict

Mem

ber

ship

Qu

alif

yin

g fo

r Fr

ee

or

Re

du

ced

Lu

nch

* Free or Reduced Lunch Counts are based on January Membership Counts

36

FREE OR REDUCED LUNCH POPULATION BY SCHOOL* (2012-2013)

37.5% 35.7%

22.2% 20.0%

38.9%

27.9%

39.3%

48.5%

34.5%

19.8%

30.3% 27.8% 30.0%

25.9%

18.8%

66.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Ch

inn

Engl

ish

Lan

din

g

Gra

den

Haw

tho

rn

Lin

e C

reek

Pra

irie

Po

int

Ren

ner

Sou

thea

st

Tiff

any

Rid

ge

Un

ion

Ch

ape

l

Pla

za M

idd

le S

cho

ol

Co

ngr

ess

Mid

dle

Sch

oo

l

Lake

view

Mid

dle

Sch

oo

l

Par

k H

ill H

igh

Sch

oo

l

Par

k H

ill S

ou

th

Ru

ssel

l Jo

ne

s

% o

f st

ud

en

t s

qu

alif

yin

g fo

r fr

ee

or

red

uce

d lu

nch

* Free or Reduced Lunch Counts are based on January Membership Counts

District Average = 28.6% *

37

PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT MOBILITY DATA

One of the major challenges facing schools is student mobility. A student is considered mobile when they transfer schools. Unfortunately, mobility has been demonstrated to be associated with many negative outcomes, including low achievement, grade retention, and dropping out. Students who are in a school or district for a relatively short time do not have as great of an opportunity to benefit from consistent educational programming. Park Hill School District, like any district, is forced to deal with issues related to mobility. While the educational programming that students receive may not differ significantly when transferring from one building to the next within the district, the same cannot be assumed for transferring in from other districts. The following charts display student mobility rates for Park Hill School District, as defined by the percentage of students who are new to the district. “One year mobility” is the percentage of current students who were not in Park Hill last year. More specifically, these students were here on the 2012-2013 September count day but not here on the 2011-2012 September count day. “Two year mobility” is the percentage of current students who were not in the Park Hill School District two years ago, based on them not being in the district on the past two years’ count days. Kindergarten students are not included in the one year student mobility rates. Likewise, kindergarten and first grade students are not included in the two year student mobility calculation.

This section of the 2012-2013 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District depicts six graphs showing student mobility rates for Park Hill School District, as defined by the percentage of students who are new to the Park Hill School District.

District Mobility (2012-2013). This graph shows the number of students new to the district within the past year, and last two years.

District Mobility By Grade Span (2012-2013). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by grade span.

District Mobility By Ethnicity (2012-2013). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by ethnicity.

District Mobility By Free or Reduced Lunch Status (2012-2013). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by free or reduced lunch status.

District Mobility By School (2012-2013). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by school.

Continuous Park Hill Enrollment Since Kindergarten (2012-2013). This graph shows the number of students in each grade level that have been Park Hill School District students for their entire school careers.

38

DISTRICT MOBILITY (2012-2013)

DISTRICT MOBILITY BY GRADE SPAN (2012-2013)

11.7%

19.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Students New Since 2011-2012 Students New Since 2010-2011

% o

f St

ud

en

ts

11.7% of current district students were not Park Hill students during the 2011-2012 school year

19.1 % of current Park Hill School District students were not district students during the 2010-2011 school year

14.2% 11.6%

8.8%

22.2% 19.5%

15.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Elementary School Middle School High School


14.2% of current district elementary students were not Park Hill students during the 2011-2012 school year

15.9% of current district high school students were not Park Hill students during the 2010-2011 school year

39

DISTRICT MOBILITY BY ETHNICITY (2012-2013)

DISTRICT MOBILITY BY FREE OR REDUCED LUNCH STATUS (2012-2013)

11.5%

17.6% 15.4% 10.0%

20.9%

31.7%

24.0%

15.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Asian African American Hispanic White


31.7% of all current district African-American students were not Park Hill students during the 2010-2011 school year

10.0% of current white students were not Park Hill students during the 2011-2012 school year

17.8%

9.4%

31.2%

14.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Free/Reduced RegularStudents New Since 2011-2012 Students New Since 2010-2011

17.8 % of all current district students who qualify for free or reduced lunch were not Park Hill students during the 2011-2012 school year

14.9% of all current district students who do not qualify for free or reduced lunch were not Park Hill students during the 2010-2011 school year

40

DISTRICT MOBILITY BY SCHOOL (2012-2013)

CONTINUOUS PARK HILL ENROLLMENT SINCE KINDERGARTEN (2012-2013)

9.4% 8.1%

13.4% 11.6%

9.9%

15.1% 12.4% 12.4%

10.3%

18.8%

11.3% 10.5%

13.6%

23.6%

13.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Par

k H

ill H

igh

Sch

oo

l

Par

k H

ill S

ou

th

Pla

za

Lake

vie

w

Co

ngr

ess

Ch

inn

Engl

ish

Lan

din

g

Gra

de

n

Haw

tho

rn

Lin

e C

ree

k

Pra

irie

Po

int

Re

nn

er

Sou

thea

st

Tiff

any

Rid

ge

Un

ion

Ch

apel

85.2%

77.5%

69.7%

65.2%

60.2% 58.0%

50.7% 50.0% 46.9% 45.9%

43.2% 42.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

1stGraders

2ndGraders

3rdGraders

4thGraders

5thGraders

6thGraders

7thGraders

8thGraders

9thGraders

10thGraders

11thGraders

12thGraders

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f St

ud

en

ts C

on

tin

uo

usl

y En

rolle

d in

P

ark

Hill

Sch

oo

ls S

ince

Kin

de

rgar

ten

50.7 % of current 7th graders have been enrolled in Park Hill Schools continuously since kindergarten

41

SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

PLATTE COUNTY LIVE BIRTHRATES & KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENTS

COLLECTING BIRTHRATE DATA

Birthrate data is collected for Platte County by the Missouri Department of Health and is utilized in projecting future kindergarten class sizes. Although not all Platte County births ultimately attend Park Hill schools (four public school districts service families in Platte County), there has been a historical link between the live birthrate in the county, and the subsequent kindergarten enrollment. For example, 2007 yielded one the highest number of births that Platte County had ever seen (1092), and subsequently yielded Park Hill School District’s largest kindergarten class during the 2012-2013 school year (771). This cohort will continue to grow as they move through their educational careers in Park Hill – a phenomenon known as “cohort growth”. The kindergarten class of 2012-2013 is 771 students, and represents the single largest kindergarten class in school district history. Kindergarten class sizes have been the historical highs for three consecutive years beginning in 2010-2011. In addition, the percentage of Platte County births compared to enrollment five years later continues to fall within the range of 65-75%, currently at a level of 70.6%.

BIRTHRATE & KINDERGARTEN CLASS SIZE DATA

The table below lists the Platte County birth data and corresponding kindergarten enrollment (5 years later).

Birth Year Platte County Live

Births Increase Kindergarten Year

Park Hill Kindergarten Enrollment

% of Platte County Live Births

as Students in PHSD

Kindergarten Class

1998 985 -21 2003-2004 688 69.8%

1999 1004 19 2004-2005 713 71.0%

2000 1012 8 2005-2006 676 66.8%

2001 1044 32 2006-2007 706 67.6%

2002 1047 3 2007-2008 704 67.2%

2003 1013 -34 2008-2009 727 71.8%

2004 1062 49 2009-2010 705 66.4%

2005 1112 50 2010-2011 745 67.0%

2006 1068 -44 2011-2012 753 70.5%

2007 1092 24 2012-2013 771 70.6%

2008 1088 -4 2009 1091 3 2010 1088 -3 2011 1158 70

42

HOUSEHOLD DATA

New households within the Park Hill School District are calculated through review of monthly reports

submitted to the district by the Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City, Platte County (Permit

Reports), and the Kansas City Planning and Development Department. Households are classified as

either single-family residences, or multi-family residences. Multi-family residences include duplexes,

four-plexes and apartment complexes. Rental properties are not included within this calculation.

As of 2012-2013, the Park Hill School District includes 29,678 households. This equates to

approximately 0.35 students per household. Households have steadily increased over the last twenty

years as more residential development has occurred. Since 1980, the district has seen an annual

increase in new households at approximately 475 new households per year. In 2012, 265 new

households were constructed, reflecting over twice the number of new households built in the year

prior and the largest growth in five years. These increases in new home construction in the Park Hill

School District is consistent with the metropolitan Kansas City area and show some recovery in the

housing market that saw smaller fewer new homes in the last five years.

The next page includes the graph: New Households within the School District – 10 Year History. The number of new homes constructed within the school district since the 2003-2004 school year. The graph shows a significant decrease in new homes over the last four years.

43

NEW HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN THE SCHOOL DISTRICT – 10 YEAR HISTORY

397

573

625 661

518

235

120 136 104

265

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Incr

eas

e in

ne

w h

om

es

wit

hin

dis

tric

t b

ou

nd

arie

s

School Year

44

SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN WITHIN PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT HOUSEHOLDS

The number of students per household in the Park Hill School District has steadily decreased over the last twenty years. Much of this can be explained due to the increase of multi-family homes (apartments and duplexes) that typically do not yield the number of students as single-family homes. This decrease may also be attributed to families choosing to have fewer children and an aging of the Park Hill School District community. The table below shows data from the last ten years, with the number of households in the Park Hill School District in 2003-2004 at 26,441. As of 2012-2013, each Park Hill household yields .352 students, or approximately 1 student per every 3 households. The number of students per household in the district has decreased slightly over the last 15 years from 0.400 to 0.349 students per household.

School Year District

Enrollment Households in

PHSD Students Per Household

2003-2004 9,460 26,441 0.358

2004-2005 9,498 27,014 0.352

2005-2006 9,648 27,639 0.349

2006-2007 9,765 28,300 0.345

2007-2008 9,879 28,818 0.343

2008-2009 10,106 29,053 0.348

2009-2010 10,159 29,173 0.348

2010-2011 10,199 29,309 0.348

2011-2012 10,299 29,413 0.350

2012-2013 10,448 29,678 0.352

3 Year Average 0.349


45

FUTURE ENROLLMENT

One benefit to tracking district enrollment trends is the ability to utilize the trend data to project future enrollment. Predicting future enrollment is an important piece in many school processes: long-range planning, budgeting, staffing, and predicting future building and capital needs. The Park Hill School District has utilized two tools to predict future enrollment – cohort growth and household construction patterns. These tools allow for three projection models (3-Year Cohort, 7-Year Cohort, Household) that create an anticipated range of enrollment for future years.

PROJECTION METHODS

COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD

Two of the three methods of projecting student enrollment for future years involve the use of “cohort survival.” Cohort survival is a measure of the rate at which students grouped by grade level pass into the next grade level a year later. For example, in 2011-2012 Park Hill School District’s class of 2nd graders was 725. A year later, this class became a third grade class of 747. Using this example, the rate of cohort survival (3.03% increase) is calculated in the following way:

%03.3725

725747

The 3.03% increase is a measure of the likelihood our second grade class will become larger or smaller as the class passes into the third grade the following year. To minimize the effects of an exceptional year, three and seven-year cohorts are calculated by averaging the cohort survival for three and seven years respectively. The tables below show how three-year and seven-year cohort survival averages are calculated:

3-YEAR COHORT PROJECTION METHOD

To determine projections based upon the three-year cohort, the three-year cohort survival rate is calculated for each grade level, and these rates are added to the previous year’s enrollment. For example, projections for the 1st grade class of 2013-2014 are based upon the 2012-2013 kindergarten enrollment (a known value of 771) and the survival rate of the last three years in which a kindergarten class has become 1st graders (+1.93%). Therefore, the projection for the 2013-2014 1st grade class using this method is 786 students.

Kindergarten to First Grade

Year Students in

Kindergarten

Students in 1st Grade 1 Year

Later %

Increase

2009-2010 705 713 1.13%

2010-2011 745 740 -0.67%

2011-2012 753 793 5.31%

3 Year Average Increase 1.93%

46

Projections for subsequent years are calculated using the same three-year cohort survival rates for each grade level.

7-YEAR COHORT PROJECTION METHOD

To determine projections based upon the seven-year cohort, the seven-year cohort survival rate is calculated for each grade level, and these rates are added to the previous year’s enrollment. For example, projections for the 2013-2014 9th grade class is based upon the 2012-2013 8th grade enrollment (a known value of 824) and the survival rate of the last seven years in which an 8th grade class becomes the 9th grade class (6.24%). Therefore, the projection for the 2013-2014 9th grade class using this method is 875 students. Projections for subsequent years are calculated using the same seven-year cohort survival rates for each grade level.

COHORT INDICES

The chart below presents the indices used to project growth from one grade level to the next, utilizing 3-year and 7-year cohort figures. These are current values utilizing data from 2007-2008 to 2012-2013 enrollments.

Growth From. . . 3-YEAR 7-YEAR

Kindergarten to 1st 1.93% 3.85%

1st to 2nd 2.30% 1.84%

2nd to 3rd 2.70% 3.19%

3rd to 4th 1.30% 1.75%

4th to 5th 1.28% 1.95%

5th to 6th 0.99% 2.55%

6th to 7th 4.50% 3.79%

7th to 8th 1.10% 1.41%

8th to 9th 6.17% 6.24%

9th to 10th -1.62% -2.03%

10th to 11th -2.04% -2.28%

11th to 12th -0.61% -0.47%

Eighth Grade to Ninth Grade

Year Students in

Eighth Grade

Students in Ninth Grade 1

Year Later %

Increase

2005-2006 796 842 5.78%

2006-2007 787 826 4.96%

2007-2008 759 822 8.30%

2008-2009 783 831 6.13%

2009-2010 805 855 6.21%

2010-2011 803 858 6.85%

2011-2012 787 830 5.46%

7 Year Average Increase 6.24%

47

PREDICTING BIRTHRATES

One challenge posed in using cohort survival as a projection method is estimating the size of the kindergarten class in future years. Since cohort survival cannot be calculated for the kindergarten class (no class comes before it in previous years), Platte County birthrates are used to estimate the kindergarten class size each year. Over the last three years, an average of 69.4% of births in Platte County (known as “live births”) have attended kindergarten in Park Hill School District schools five years later. For example, in 2007 Platte County reported 1092 live births. Five years later, in school year 2012-2013, 771 kindergarten students were enrolled in Park Hill School District. Using known values for Platte County birthrates in years 2008 through 2011, kindergarten enrollment for school years 2013-2014 through 2016-2017 can be estimated based upon known birthrates. To calculate this, a regression with live birth as the dependent variable and change per year as the independent variable is utilized to produce a growth curve model that takes into account the non-linear change pattern. Kindergarten enrollment estimations past the school year 2016-2017 cannot be calculated based upon known births (these children have not yet been born). Values for these kindergarten enrollments are based upon a predicted number of children born in Platte County. To predict this, the same growth curve explained above is used and a regression using kindergarten enrollment as the dependent variable and live births and current year as the independent variable is made. Projections made from 3 years of birth data are input into the 3-year cohort projection model, and projections made from 7 years of birth data are included in the 7-year cohort projection model.

PROJECTIONS MADE FROM 3-YEARS OF DATA

Year Live

Births

Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

Projected Kindergarten

Class Size

Change From

Previous Years

% of Platte County Live

Births as Park Hill

Kindergarten Students

2005 1112 2010-2011 745 67.0%

2006 1068 2011-2012 753 8 70.5%

2007 1092 2012-2013 771 18 70.6%

2008 1088 2013-2014 755 -16 69.4%

2009 1091 2014-2015 757 2 69.4%

2010 1088 2015-2016 755 -2 69.4%

2011 1158 2016-2017 803 48 69.3%

2012 1181 2017-2018 819 16 69.3%

2013 1204 2018-2019 835 16 69.4%

2014 1227 2019-2020 851 16 69.4%

2015 1250 2020-2021 867 16 69.4%

2016 1273 2021-2022 883 16 69.4%

2017 1296 2022-2023 899 16 69.4%

* projected values in blue, known values in yellow

48

PROJECTIONS MADE FROM 7-YEARS OF DATA

Year Live

Births

Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

Projected Kindergarten

Class Size

Change From

Previous Years

% of Platte County Live

Births as Park Hill

Kindergarten Students

2001 1044 2006-2007 706 67.6%

2002 1047 2007-2008 704 -2 67.2%

2003 1013 2008-2009 727 23 71.8%

2004 1062 2009-2010 705 -22 66.4%

2005 1112 2010-2011 745 40 67.0%

2006 1068 2011-2012 753 8 70.5%

2007 1092 2012-2013 771 18 70.6%

2008 1088 2013-2014 748 -23 68.7%

2009 1091 2014-2015 750 2 68.7%

2010 1088 2015-2016 748 -2 68.7%

2011 1158 2016-2017 796 48 68.7%

2012 1172 2017-2018 806 10 68.7%

2013 1186 2018-2019 815 9 68.7%

2014 1200 2019-2020 825 10 68.7%

2015 1214 2020-2021 834 9 68.7%

2016 1228 2021-2022 844 10 68.7%

2017 1242 2022-2023 854 10 68.7%

* projected values in blue, known values in yellow

Using these projection models, the kindergarten class size for 2013-2014 is projected to be between 748 (7-Year Projection) and 755 (3-Year Projection) students.

HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS METHOD

Enrollment projections, based on households, provide an opportunity to determine student enrollment farther in the future. Part of the downfall to this approach is the projection of both households in the district as well as the number of school age children in each household. The next example provides a description of the number of school age children living within each household for the current school year.

49

School Year District

Enrollment Households in

PHSD Students Per Household

2003-2004 9,460 26,441 0.358

2004-2005 9,498 27,014 0.352

2005-2006 9,648 27,639 0.349

2006-2007 9,765 28,300 0.345

2007-2008 9,879 28,818 0.343

2008-2009 10,106 29,053 0.348

2009-2010 10,159 29,173 0.348

2010-2011 10,199 29,309 0.348

2011-2012 10,299 29,413 0.350

2012-2013 10,448 29,678 0.352



By multiplying the students per household times the number of households in the district, a determination can be made to establish a projected enrollment.

0.352 (students per household) x 29,678 (households in PHSD)

~10,248 (District Enrollment)

As the district continues to increase households, the number of students per household multiplied by the projected households will provide an enrollment projection. To make these projections the following steps are followed:

1. Project the number of households in the Park Hill School District based upon historical growth.

2. Project the number of students per household based upon historical growth.

3. Calculate district enrollment based upon the above two projections.

4. Distribute the enrollment across elementary, middle and high school levels according to historical distribution.

For the household projection method, the district is anticipating the new homes in each year and the students per household values as described in the following table.

The “Students per Household” value of 0.352 has been rounded for this example

50

Year Number of Households

Annual Change in Households

Students Per Household

2013-2014 29,884 206 0.349

2014-2015 30,131 247 0.349

2015-2016 30,427 296 0.349

2016-2017 30,782 355 0.349

2017-2018 31,208 426 0.349

2018-2019 31,719 511 0.349

2019-2020 32,332 613 0.349

2020-2021 33,068 736 0.349

2021-2022 33,951 883 0.349

2022-2023 35,011 1060 0.349

The following pages include the student enrollment projection graphs described below:

Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Table. This table summarizes the grade span sizes projected for the next ten years by three different methods. Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Graph. This graph summarizes the grade span sizes projected for the next ten years by three different methods.

51

STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY – TABLE

Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools Grand Total

School Year 3-Year

Projections 7-Year

Projections Household Projections

3-Year Projections

7-Year Projections

Household Projections

3-Year Projections

7-Year Projections


3-Year Projections

7-Year Projections


2013-2014 4,734 4,751 4,679 2,493 2,504 2,433 3,330 3,325 3,324 10,557 10,580 10,437

2014-2015 4,731 4,760 4,718 2,548 2,571 2,453 3,367 3,360 3,352 10,646 10,691 10,523

2015-2016 4,795 4,833 4,765 2,515 2,558 2,477 3,417 3,404 3,385 10,727 10,795 10,627

2016-2017 4,864 4,905 4,820 2,519 2,577 2,506 3,496 3,495 3,424 10,879 10,977 10,751

2017-2018 4,904 4,946 4,887 2,537 2,602 2,541 3,566 3,583 3,472 11,007 11,131 10,899

2018-2019 4,969 4,988 4,967 2,622 2,707 2,583 3,550 3,580 3,529 11,141 11,275 11,078

2019-2020 5,069 5,070 5,063 2,646 2,733 2,632 3,559 3,616 3,597 11,274 11,419 11,292

2020-2021 5,184 5,162 5,178 2,623 2,714 2,692 3,615 3,687 3,679 11,422 11,563 11,549

2021-2022 5,319 5,267 5,316 2,605 2,685 2,764 3,631 3,726 3,777 11,555 11,678 11,857

2022-2023 5,420 5,330 5,482 2,657 2,741 2,851 3,699 3,804 3,895 11,776 11,875 12,228

52

STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY – GRAPH

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Pro

ject

ed E

nro

llmen

t (R

ange

)

Future School Years

Projected Enrollment for 2013-2014 falls between 10,437 & 10,580

Projected Enrollment for 2022-2023 falls between 11,776 & 12,228

53

BUILDING NEED

One use of student enrollment projections is to anticipate the need for additional school buildings. Although projections are not made for growth of each school, projections are made for each school level – elementary, middle and high school level. Projections when each level will reach effective capacity can be anticipated through the use of maximum and effective building capacity calculations.

MAXIMUM & EFFECTIVE CAPACITIES

Maximum Capacity is defined as the total number of classrooms multiplied by the student capacity for each room, using board policy for class size:

Kindergarten 23 Students

Grades 1-3 25 Students




The chart below illustrates the total number of available classrooms by school and the corresponding maximum capacity. “Available classrooms” is defined by the number of teaching stations utilized during a single period of the day. Schools at their maximum capacities could only provide a significantly altered educational program after maximizing all existing classroom resources.

School Class Size Standards Available Classrooms Maximum Capacity Chinn 23, 25, 27 22 557

English Landing 23, 25, 27 26 659

Graden 23, 25, 27 24 608

Hawthorn 23, 25, 27 24 608

Line Creek 23, 25, 27 24 608

Prairie Point 23, 25, 27 24 608

Renner 23, 25, 27 24 608

Southeast 23, 25, 27 24 608

Tiffany Ridge 23, 25, 27 24 608

Union Chapel 23, 25, 27 24 608

Plaza 28 38 1,064

Congress 28 46 1,288

Lakeview 28 45 1,260

Park Hill High School 30 88 2,640

Park Hill South 30 85 2,550

54

Effective Capacity is a realistic capacity for each school in order to deliver a diverse curricular program and to host special programs. The effective capacity has been set to utilize 87.5% of the maximum capacity for elementary schools, 80.0% for 6th grade center, 72.5% for the middle schools, and 70% for high schools. By utilizing the percentages in the definition of effective capacity, the chart below indicates the number of students who can be educated in our existing school buildings.

Level Effective Capacity

Percentage 2012-2013

Maximum Capacity Schools 2012-2013 Effective Capacity Per School

Elementary 87.5% 6,080 10 532

6th Grade Center 80.0% 1,064 1 851

Middle 72.5% 2,548 2 924

High 70.0% 5,190 2 1,817

Based on this effective capacity and the current size of schools in the Park Hill School District, new schools may need to be built when student enrollment exceeds the effective capacity listed above. Additional schools may need to be constructed at intervals listed below:

Level Schools New School Every

Elementary 10 532

6th Grade/Middle 3 900

High 2 1,817

The graphs on the next pages include the following: Effective Capacity - Elementary Schools. This graph plots projected elementary enrollments over the next ten years with the anticipated need for new schools based upon effective capacity calculations. Effective Capacity - Middle Schools. This graph plots projected middle school enrollments over the next ten years with the anticipated need for new schools based upon effective capacity calculations. Effective Capacity - High Schools. This graph plots projected high school enrollments over the next ten years with the anticipated need for new schools based upon effective capacity calculations.

55

EFFECTIVE CAPACITY - ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Pro

ject

ed

Ele

me

nta

ry S

tud

en

t En

rollm

en

t

School Year

3-Year Projections 7-Year Projections Household Projections

Effective Capacity=5,320 Students (10 Elementary Schools)

56

EFFECTIVE CAPACITY - MIDDLE SCHOOLS

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Pro

ject

ed

Mid

dle

Sch

oo

l En

rollm

en

t

School Year


Effective Capacity=2,700 Students (3 Middle Schools)

57

EFFECTIVE CAPACITY – HIGH SCHOOLS

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023

Pro

ject

ed

Hig

h S

cho

ol E

nro

llme

nt

School Year


Effective Capacity=3,633 Students (2 High Schools)

58

SQUARE FOOTAGE ANALYSIS

A more standardized way to calculate capacity limits within school facilities is based upon gross square footage per student calculations. The Council of Educational Facility Planners International (CEFPI) and other organizations and states have created standards for the amount of gross square footage needed within schools to effectively maintain the educational programming demands of today’s schools. The gross square footage standards in the table below have been established based upon standards published by CEFPI, the states of Minnesota and Ohio, and other research based upon gross square footage demands for schools.

School Type Square Footage

Per Student

Elementary Schools 110 sq ft

Middle Schools 125 sq ft

High Schools 145 sq ft The following table lists each district school, their current square footage (not including mobile units), their enrollment, and a status of their current status compared to the square footage standards above. Red symbols indicate schools currently more than 5% beneath the district square footage standard, yellow indicates schools within an acceptable square footage range (within 5%), and green indicates schools with ample square footage for their enrollment (greater than 5% than the standard). A weighted enrollment calculation has been made to account for district programs that require additional space (i.e. elementary functional program) housed in specific schools. The Russell Jones Education Center has not been included in these enrollment numbers or calculations.

59

2012-2013 SQUARE FOOTAGE ANALYSIS TABLE (BY BUILDING)

School

2012-2013

Building Square

Footage

2012-2013

Portable Unit

Square

Footage

Total Square

Footage

2012-2013

Enrollment

2012-2013

Special

Populations Population

Weight

Factor

2012-2013

Weighted

Enrollment

2012-2013

Gross

Square

Footage per

Weighted

Enrollment

Sq Footage Per

Student

Standard Condition

Chinn 60,434 - 60,434 477 15 Functional 2.50 500 120.9 110.0 10.9

English Landing 60,003 - 60,003 531 0 None 0.00 531 113.0 110.0 3.0

Graden 53,374 - 53,374 486 0 None 0.00 486 109.8 110.0 -0.2

Hawthorn 63,868 - 63,868 469 18 Functional 2.50 496 128.8 110.0 18.8

Line Creek 48,333 - 48,333 456 0 None 0.00 456 106.0 110.0 -4.0

Prairie Point 64,360 - 64,360 479 0 None 0.00 479 134.4 110.0 24.4

Renner 48,617 - 48,617 362 10 Autistism 5.00 402 120.9 110.0 10.9

Southeast 54,422 - 54,422 426 14 Speech 0.25 416 130.8 110.0 20.8

Tiffany Ridge 70,842 - 70,842 516 8 Autistism 5.00 548 129.3 110.0 19.3

Union Chapel 55,582 - 55,582 494 0 None 0.00 494 112.5 110.0 2.5

Elementary Total 579,835 - 579,835 4,696 65 4,808 120.6 110.0 10.6

Congress 102,186 - 102,186 874 0 None 0.0 874 116.9 125.0 -8.1

Lakeview 108,113 - 108,113 766 34 Autistism & Functional 3.3 843 128.2 125.0 3.2

Plaza 110,489 - 110,489 807 15 PHSD Programs 1.0 807 136.9 125.0 11.9

Middle Total 320,788 - 320,788 2,447 49 2,524 127.1 125.0 2.1

-

PHHS 272,930 - 272,930 1712 0 None 0.0 1684 162.1 145.0 17.1

PHS 232,268 - 232,268 1553 0 None 0.0 1522 152.6 145.0 7.6

High Total 505,198 - 505,198 3,265 0 3,206 157.6 145.0 12.6

TOTAL 1,405,821 - 1,405,821 10,408 114 10,538 133.4 130.0 3.4

60

The graphs on the next pages include the following: Square Footage Analysis - Elementary Schools. This graph plots projected elementary enrollments over the next ten years with the current square footage availability for these grade levels. Square Footage Analysis - Middle Schools. This graph plots projected middle school enrollments over the next ten years with the current square footage availability for these grade levels. Square Footage Analysis - High Schools. This graph plots projected high school enrollments over the next ten years with the current square footage availability for these grade levels.

61

SQUARE FOOTAGE ANALYSIS - ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS

62

SQUARE FOOTAGE ANALYSIS - MIDDLE SCHOOLS

63

SQUARE FOOTAGE ANALYSIS - HIGH SCHOOLS

64

FUTURE DISTRICT GROWTH TRENDS

The school district also monitors population trends within the entire community to assist in long-range planning. By looking at current and projected trends in the populations of school-aged children, child bearing females, and the entire population, critical decisions can be made regarding future programming demands, as well as facility neeeds. The next section includes the following maps: Total Population of the Park Hill School District (2010). The Park Hill School District has a population 62,261 in 2011. This map shows the population density by census block. A census block group is a geographical unit used by the United States Census Bureau. It is the smallest geographical unit for which the bureau publishes sample data, i.e. data which is only collected from a fraction of all households. Estimated Percent Change in Population (2010-2022). This map shows the projected change in total population by census block group within district boundaries over ten years. Students New to Park Hill School District (2012-2013). This map shows where students new to the school district live within the Park Hill boundaries. Children Under the Age of 5 (2010). This map shows the population of children under the age of 5 in 2010 by census block. Estimated Change In Children Under the Age of 5 (2010-2022). This map shows the projected change in the children less than five years of age population by census block group within district boundaries over twelve years.

65

TOTAL POPULATION OF THE PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT (2010)

66

ESTIMATED PERCENT CHANGE IN POPULATION (2010-2022)

67

STUDENTS NEW TO PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT (2012-2013)

68

CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 5 (2010)

69

ESTIMATED CHANGE IN CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 5 (2010-2022)

demographic profile - park hill school...

Documents