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  • September 11, 2008

    Washington, DC

    Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S.

    Robert Puentes

  • Realities on the ground have changed dramatically1

    Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S.

    These changes have 3 main spatial effects on the American landscape2 Together these patterns have a series of important implications.3

  • Population Growth Immigration Internal MigrationAging Household Formation

  • -100,000

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    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

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    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    Percent and absolute population growth, 2005-2050

    Absolute growth

    Percent growth

    Source: U.N. Population Division

    Unlike most European nations and Japan, the U.S. will continue to grow at a considerable rate.

  • 0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

    Legal Undocumented

    Temprorary (Net) Projected

    Total foreign-born, in millions, 1960-2050

    Source: Jeffrey S. Passel, 2006

    The increase in population will continue to be fueled in part by an enormous wave of immigration.

    M ill

    io ns

  • Percent growth in U.S. total and senior populations by

    decade, 1970–2030

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030

    Age 65+ Total

    Source: Frey, 2007

    This immigration is essential to offset another major demographic trend: the aging of the baby boom generation.

  • US age distribution, by race, 2020

    (Age pyramid moves from the elderly at the top to youths at the bottom)

    Source: Census

    However, since minorities have younger age structures than whites, the nation’s population pyramids will look quite different.

    Male Female

    \

    Male Female

    Male Female Male Female

    Whites Hispanics

    Blacks API/AI

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    190 0

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    196 0

    198 0

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    202 0

    204 0

    Household size is declining sharply, primarily due to the increases in single person and parent households.

    Sources: (1) Yi, Land, Wang, and Danan; (2) Frey and Berube, 2003 and updated

    Persons per household, 1900-2050

    Absolute change in households, 1980-2005

  • U.S. population growth, 1900-2005

    Source: Census

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    19 00

    19 05

    19 10

    19 15

    19 20

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    19 30

    19 30

    19 40

    19 45

    19 50

    19 55

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    19 65

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    19 80

    19 85

    19 90

    19 95

    20 00

    20 05

    20 10

    20 15

    20 20

    20 25

    South

    West

    Midwest Northeast

    But these growth trends are highly variable across the country. The story of rapid growth in the U.S. is largely confined to the South and the West.

  • Realities on the ground have changed dramatically1 These changes have 3 main spatial effects on the American landscape2 Together these patterns have a series of important implications.3

    Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S.

  • First, rather than dispersing randomly all this population and economic activity is shifting and re-aggregating within and between major metropolitan areas.

    Metropolitan areas have become the engines of national prosperity.

  • Second, these mega-trends are revaluing the assets of the cities and urban cores within metropolitan areas.

    These forces have reconfirmed the primacy and centrality of place.

  • Third, America's metropolitan areas have become exceedingly complex and have moved well beyond the conventional city versus suburb divide.

    These are not your parent’s suburbs

  • Together these patterns have a series of important implications.3

    Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S.

    3

    Realities on the ground have changed dramatically1 These changes have 3 main spatial effects on the American landscape2

  • “Never make predictions, especially about the future.”

    -Casey Stengel

  • Source: Nelson, “Toward a New Metropolis,” 2004

    1. What will be the impacts on residential location?

    The pressure will be on existing places—especially cities and first suburbs—to accommodate new growth.

    Source: NAR, 2004

    Exurbs 26%

    Suburbs 20%

    Urban Areas 54%

    Preference for next residential location,

    2004

  • 2. How will transportation be impacted by changing household formation?

    Demand for higher- density housing in

    transit zones could far outstrip the supply

    of this kind of housing.

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

    Projected Demand: Housing Units in Transit Zones

    14.6 million

    Source: Center for Transit-Oriented Development, Hidden in Plain Sight and Harvard, State of the Nation’s Housing

  • 3. What will be the impacts of continued diversity?

    The nation will be majority minority by 2050 and nearly 90 percent of the population growth in 2050 will be the result of

    post 2000 net immigration.

    Immigrants are more likely to carpool. But

    their high levels of transit use decline over

    time.

    Blacks and Hispanics together make up nearly half of the

    nation’s transit users

  • 0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    Under 15

    15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

    Age Group

    4. What will be the impacts of the aging of the population?

    Percent of metro residents residing in central cities by age

    group, 2000

    The location preferences of the elderly do not suggest a “back-to-the-city” movement.

  • LOSS GAIN

    5. What will be the impacts of national migration shifts?

    The challenge will be maintaining investments in declining areas without overbuilding.

    Projected population change, by county, 2000-2050

  • Demographics will not be the only determinant of our future, of course. Globalization, climate change, technological innovation, freight, energy concerns, and public policy are key.

    Yet we have an enormous opportunity now to shape our nation's metropolitan future.

  • September 11, 2008

    Washington, DC

    Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation in the U.S.

    Robert Puentes

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