demographic trends and prospects presented by: eduard bos health, nutrition, and population the...
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Demographic Trends and Prospects
Presented by:
Eduard Bos
Health, Nutrition, and Population
The World Bank
John Bongaarts, Population Council, contributed slides
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Demographic Trends and Prospects
1) Past trends in population size
2) Projections
3) Determinants of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration
4) Impact of AIDS epidemic
5) Changing age structures
6) Population policy options
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World Population Size: Past Estimates and Projections
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Bill
ions World Total
Developing
Developed
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World Population Growth by Decade
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Per
cent
per
yea
r
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Millions
Source: United Nations 2001, World Bank 2001
Growth rateAbsolutegrowth
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
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China 1,262 1,505 19%
India 1,016 1,561 54%
Indonesia 210 320 52%
Brazil 170 245 44%
Pakistan 138 292 112%
Bangladesh 130 230 77%
Nigeria 127 261 106%
2000 2050 2000-2050
Population size (millions) IncreaseCountry
Projections of Population SizeSelected Countries:2000-2050
Russia 146 114 -22%
Japan 127 105 -21%
Germany 82 67 -17%
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How Reliable are Demographic Projections
• Cohort component methodology: trends in vital rates projected separately
• Baseline data: accurate data determine short-term accuracy
• Assumptions about the future: past trends; no “unusual” events
• Longer term: increasing uncertainty
• Global, regional, country, subnational
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The Next Billion
1 Billion Increase in Population,1999-2014
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000 High IncomecountriesEurope andCentral AsiaMiddle East andNo. AfricaLatin Americaand CaribbeanEast Asia andPacif icSub-SaharanAfricaSouth Asia
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2) Determinants of population change:
fertility and mortality
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The Demographic Transition in theDeveloping World
0
10
20
30
40
50
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Birt
hs/D
eath
s pe
r 10
00 p
op
Source: United Nations 1998
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Growth Rate
2001
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Total Fertility Rate by Region:Past Estimates and Projections
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Birt
hs p
er w
oman
L.America
AfricaAsia
N.America
Europe
2000
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Life Expectancy Trends by Region
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Ye
ars
N. America
Europe
L. America
Asia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
2001
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Why Population Growth in LDCs Continues
Fertility remains above the replacement level
Declining mortality
Population momentum due to a young age structure
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Population Projections 2000 - 2050, by Region
-50 0 50 100 150
EAST ASIA
SOUTH ASIA
MIDDLE-EAST
SUB-SAH. AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE
SOUTH
NORTH
WORLD
% increase 2000-2050
Momentum
Standard projection
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3) Impact of AIDS epidemic
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Global Estimates of HIV Prevalence
Number infected with HIV 9 36 million
Percent of adults infected 0.3 1.2 %
1990 2000
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Percent of Adults Infected with HIV in 1999
0 2 4 6 8 10
Sub-Saharan Africa
South and SE Asia
East Asia
Latin America
Europe
North America
% infected
World average
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Population Growth Ratewith and without AIDS
0 1 2 3 4 5
2005-10
2000-05
1995-00
1990-95
2005-10
2000-05
1995-00
1990-95
Pop.growth rate (%/year)
South Africa
Botswana
AIDS impact
Source UN 2000
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Birth and Death Rate, with and without AIDS in Botswana
0 1 2 3 4 5
2000-05
1995-00
1990-95
Birth/death rate (% of pop)
Source: UN 1998, World Bank 2001
Death rate Birth rate
Pop. growth rate with AIDS AIDS impact
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Birth and Death Rate, with and without AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa
0 1 2 3 4 5
2000-05
1995-00
1990-95
1985-90
Birth/death rate (% of pop)
Pop. growth rate with AIDS AIDS impact
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Demographic impact of AIDS
Trends in Under-Five Mortality RatesDemographic and Health Surveys
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-99
Zambia
Kenya
Zimbabwe
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How does HIV/AIDS affect demographic trends
• Mortality of adults (mostly 20-50) increases death rates
• Mortality of adults reduces number of women of childbearing age: fewer births
• Mortality of children increases death rates, reduces future size of adult population
Mortality indicators much worse Dependency ratios not greatly affected
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4) Changing age structure
Population Council
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Age Structures
High-Income Countries, 2000
40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Low-Income Countries, 2000
200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
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Population Distribution by Age Developing World
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Year
Per
cent
0-15
15-65
65+
2000
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Age Dependency Ratio by Region
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Year
Rat
io
Source: UN 1996
Developed world
Asia
L. America
Africa
2000
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5) Population policy options
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1)Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion
Strengthen family planning programs
Improve fertility regulation technology
Causes ofPopulation Growth Policy Options
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Total Demand and Unmet Need for Contraception among Married Women
0 20 40 60 80
Latin America
Asia / N. Africa
S.S. Africa
% with demand for contraception
Source Bongaarts 1990
Users Nonusers= Unmet need
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Wanted and Unwanted Fertilityby Region, Late 1980s
0 2 4 6 8
S.S. Africa
Latin America
Asia / N. Africa
Births per woman
Source: Bongaarts 1990
Wanted Unwanted
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Alternative Projections of the Population Size of the Developing World
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Bill
ions
Source: Bongaarts 1991; Bongaarts, Phillips, Mauldin, 1990
No programs
Standard WorldBank projection
Effect of:
Remaining unwantedfertility
Existing programs
No unwantedfertility
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2) High desiredFamily size
Emphasize human development
1)Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion
Strengthen family planning programs
Improve fertility regulation technology
Causes ofPopulation Growth Policy Options
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Women's Average Desired Family Size
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Botsw
ana
Burun
di
Gha
na
Kenya
Libe
ria Mal
i
Ond
o Sta
te
Seneg
al
Togo
Ugand
a
Zimbab
weEgy
pt
Mor
occo
Tunisi
a
Indo
nesia
Sri La
nka
Thaila
nd
Bolivi
a
Brazil
Colom
bia
Domin
. Rep
.
Ecuad
or
El Sal
vado
r
Gua
tem
ala
Mex
ico Peru
Trin. &
Tob
.
Des
ired
fam
ily s
ize
Source: Westoff 1991
Sub-Saharan Africa
N.Africa/Asia Latin America
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Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Demand for Births
Level of education
Status of women
Infant Mortality
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Decomposition of Projected Population Growthin the Developing World
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Bill
ions
Source: Bongaarts 1994
Standard WorldBank projection
High desired family sizePopulation momentum
Unwanted fertility
10.2
8.3
7.3
4.5
population growthCauses of
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Percent Increase in Population Size:Projections for South Asia 1995-2100
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Nepal
India
Bangladesh
Percent Increase, 1995-2100
Momentum
Source Bongaarts and Amin 1997
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Median Age at Marriage by Levelof Female Education
14
16
18
20
22
24A
ge
Source: Demographic and Health Surveys
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1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion
Strengthen family planning programs
Improve fertility regulation technology
Causes ofPopulation Growth Policy Options
2)High desiredfamily size
Emphasize human development
3)Momentum ofpopulation growth
Delay childbearing