demographic trends and the education pipeline: implications for educating latinos for the future of...
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Demographic Trends and the Education Pipeline:
Implications for Educating Latinos for the Future of America
2
Demographics and the Education Landscape
• Population
• Immigration
• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
• High School Graduates
• Dropout Rates
• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation
3
U.S. Population by Ethnicity
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
White 193,328 195,769 198,366
Black 31,590 34,413 36,325
Hispanic 27,107 35,648 42,687
Asian/Pacific Islander 8,846 10,827 12,826
American Indian/Alaskan 1,932 2,104 2,233
Two or more races 0 3,432 3,974
1995 2000 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Nu
mb
er (
000)
4
U.S. Population Growth by Ethnicity1995-2000 and 2000-2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
5.6%
19.7%18.5%
6.1% 5.0%
8.9%1.3%
31.5%
22.4%
8.9%7.4%
1.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
White Black Hispanic Asian/PacificIslander
Am. Indian/Alaskan
Total U.S.
1995-2000 2000-2005
5
Distribution of U.S. Population By Ethnicity 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
White, 66.9%
Black, 12.3%
Hispanic, 14.4%
Asian/ Pacific Islander, 4.3%
Two or more races, 1.3%
Am. Indian/ Alaskan, 0.8%
6
Top 10 States with Largest Hispanic Populations 2004
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2004Table 1: Annual estimate of the population by race alone and Hispanic or Latino origin for the U.S. and states: July 1, 2004
598,322
823,352
878,803
1,294,422
1,608,698
1,774,551
3,076,697
3,304,832
7,781,211
12,442,626
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000
Georgia
New Mexico
Colorado
New Jersey
Arizona
Illinois
New York
Florida
Texas
California
7
Top 10 States Cumulative Percent of Total US Hispanic Population 2004
81.3%
79.8%
77.8%
75.7%
72.6%
68.7%
64.4%
56.9%
48.9%
30.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Georgia
New Mexico
Colorado
New Jersey
Arizona
Illinois
New York
Florida
Texas
California
Source: US Census Bureau 2004
8
Population by Age 2005 Percent of Total U.S. and Hispanic
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
24.8%
62.8%
12.4%
33.9%
60.8%
5.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over
Total Population Hispanic
9Source: U.S. Census Bureau
22.3%
19.6%
16.8% 17.3% 16.9%
9.1%
6.2%
14.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Under 5years
5 to 13years
14 to 17years
18 to 24years
25 to 44years
45 to 64years
65 yearsand over
Total
Population by Age 2005 Hispanics as Percent of Total U.S.
10
Immigration
• Population
• Immigration
• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
• High School Graduates
• Dropout Rates
• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation
11
U.S. Immigration By Region of Last Residence
Source: 2004 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
Europe 800,368 761,550 1,359,737
Asia 1,588,178 2,738,157 2,795,672
America*(Includes Canada, Mexico,Caribbean, Central and SouthAmerica)
1,982,735 3,615,225 4,486,806
Africa 80,779 176,893 354,939
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000
12
U.S. Immigration By Region and Select Countries of Last Residence 2001-2004
15.6%
32.1%
5.70%
34.6%
7.0%
2.5%2.6%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Europe Asia Africa Mexico,Central
America,South
America,Cuba
Canada Caribbean(Ex Cuba)
Other
Source: 2004 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics
13
U.S. Immigration Distribution by Region and Select Countries of Last Residence2001-2004
Source: 2004 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics
Asia, 32.1%
Canada, 2.6%
Mexico, 18.8%
Caribbean (ex Cuba),
7.0%
Cuba, 2.1%
Central America,
6.7%
South America,
7.0%
Africa, 5.7%Other, 2.5%
Europe, 15.6%
14
Hispanic Population in the U.S. By Origin 2004
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Mexican, 64.0%Puerto Rican,
9.6%
Central American, 7.2%
South American, 5.5%
Other Hispanic, 7.6%
Dominican, 2.6%
Cuban, 3.6%
15
The Education Landscape
• Population
• Immigration
• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
• High School Graduates
• Dropout Rates
• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation
16
Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Ethnicity Percent of Total 1993, 2003
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005.
66.1%
16.6%12.7%
58.7%
17.2% 18.5%3.6%
1.1%4.4%
1.2%0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
White Black Hispanic Asian Am. Indian/Alaskan Native
1993 2003
17
Public High School Graduates By Minority Groups
Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.
Am. Indian/ Alaskan Native,
28,80720,512 24,678
Asian, 139,615
99,948122,132
294,825
333,225
Black, 360,565
282,120
213,488
Hispanic,360,832
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1995 2000 2005
18
Public High School Graduates By Ethnicity 2005
Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.
360,565 360,832
1,780,838
139,61528,8070
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Am. Indian/Alaskan Native
Asian Black Hispanic White
19
20.3%22.2%
13.0%
32.1%
7.3%
14.3%
8.2%
27.9%
16.7%
0.2%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Am. Indian/Alaskan Native
Asian Black Hispanic White
1995-2000 2000-2005
Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.
Public High School Graduates Percent Increase by Ethnicity
20
Total U.S. Hispanic Public High School Graduates
Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.
213488
282,120
360,832
496,451
608,210
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1995 2000 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015
21
Hispanics as Percent of Total Public High School Graduates
Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.
9.3%11.1%
13.5%
17.4%
21.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1995 2000 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015
22
Hispanic Public High School Graduates by Region
Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
New England 6,916 9,576 12,790 13,176
Middle States 29,844 34,187 45,784 48,276
Midwest 21,046 28,498 43,910 60,538
Southern 21,284 36,834 64,082 110,897
Southwestern 77,773 93,012 116,963 140,975
Western 125,261 159,026 212,923 234,349
2000 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015
23
Hispanics as Percent of Total Public High School Graduates
Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.
States and Regions 2005 Projected 2015
New Mexico 46.1 % 54.2 %
California 36.3 % 45.7 %
Texas 35.3 % 44.9 %
Arizona 29.3 % 41.4 %
Nevada 19.9 % 38.5 %
Florida 19.8 % 32.3 %
24
Dropout Rates
• Population
• Immigration
• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
• High School Graduates
• Dropout Rates
• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation
25
High School Dropout Rates By Ethnicity Percent of Dropouts Among 16-24 Year Olds
7.7%
12.6%
30.0%
11.4%11.8% 10.3%6.8%
23.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
White Black Hispanic Total
1994 2004
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005
26
High School Dropouts By Gender Within Ethnicity 2004
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005
8.0%
14.1%
31.6%
12.3%
7.5%
11.3%
28.1%
10.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
White Black Hispanic Total
Male Female
27
High School Dropouts By Immigration Status 2002
Source: The Condition of Education 2005.
41.4%
14.4%11.3%
5.3% 7.8%3.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Born Outside the U.S. First Generation Second Generation
Hispanic Non Hispanic
28
Postsecondary Enrollment
• Population
• Immigration
• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
• High School Graduates
• Dropout Rates
• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation
29
Postsecondary Enrollment in 2-Year and 4-Year Institutions by Control 2004
6,736.5 6,243.6
3,989.7
302.3
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
4-Year 2-Year
Public Private
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005
Nu
mb
er (
000)
30
Hispanic Postsecondary Enrollment In 2-Year and 4-Year Institutions
358.2617.9
837.2255.1
424.2
843.9
972.4
216.60
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1980 1990 2000 2004
4 Year 2 Year
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005
Nu
mb
er (
000)
31
Postsecondary Enrollment Percent of Total Enrollment by Ethnicity 2004
68.6%
11.7%7.8%
62.1%
13.8% 14.9% 4.7%0.9%
6.3%1.4%1.3%
6.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
White Black Hispanic Asian/ PacificIslander
Am. Indian/Alaskan Native
NonresidentAlien
% of 4-Year % of 2-Year
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005
32
Postsecondary Enrollment by Ethnicity 2004
64.4%58.2%
46.3%
61.2%
53.3%
84.6%
35.6%41.8%
53.7%
38.8%
46.7%
15.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
White Black Hispanic Asian/ PacificIslander
Am. Indian/Alaskan Native
NonresidentAlien
4-Year 2 Year
`
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005
33
Hispanic Postsecondary Enrollment Percent of Total
3.9%
5.7%
9.5%10.5%
5.6%
8.1%
14.2%14.9%
2.9%
4.2%
6.6%
7.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1980 1990 2000 2004
Total 2-Year 4-Year
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005
34
Postsecondary Enrollment of Public H.S. Graduates in 2-Year and 4-Year Institutions Percent of Total by Ethnicity 2004
13.2% 12.8%
62.1%
6.3%11.7%
7.8%
67.8%
1.0%5.1%
1.3%6.6%
13.8% 14.9%
68.6%
0.9%0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
American Indian Asian Black Hispanic White
Public High School Graduates 2-Year Enrollment 4-Year Enrollment
Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005
35
Postsecondary Graduation Rates 2-Year Institutions
31.0%26.6%
32.6% 33.9%35.7%
All Students, 32.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Am. Indian/ NativeAlaskan
Asian Black Hispanic White
Source: NCES 2006: Enrollment in Postsecondary institutions Fall 2004; Graduation rates 1998 & 2001 cohorts; and Financial statistics, fiscal year 2004.
36
Postsecondary Graduation Rates 4-Year Institutions
36.5%39.7%
45.8%
58.2%64.7%
All Students, 55.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Am. Indian/ NativeAlaskan
Asian Black Hispanic White
Source: NCES 2006: Enrollment in Postsecondary institutions Fall 2004; Graduation rates 1998 & 2001 cohorts; and Financial statistics, fiscal year 2004.
37
Summary
• Latinos are a large and growing segment of the U.S. population.
• Immigration is a factor.
• Latinos have an even greater presence in the school-age population.
• The number of Latino high school graduates are expected to increase through 2015 in all Regions.
• Drop out rates are a concern, particularly among recent immigrants.
• Hispanic enrollment in postsecondary education has increased, but Hispanics remain underrepresented in higher education.
• The majority of Latinos attend 2-Year institutions.