Demographic Trends in IndiaDemographic Trends in India

By Charles Minz

Moderator- Dr. Abhishek Raut

FrameworkFramework

• Introduction• World Scenario • Stages of Demography• Demographic Transition in India• Fertility Indicators• Mortality Indicators• Sources of Data• Implications of Demographic Transition

IntroductionIntroduction

• Demography-It is defined as a Scientific study of human population which includes the study of the changes in a population sizes ,its composition and distribution.

 

World PopulationWorld Population

• The World population is the total number of living humans on Earth. As of today, it is estimated to number 7.124 billion. (by the United States Census Bureau ) 

• Components of Population change.

- One birth in every 8 seconds

- One death every 12 seconds

WORLD POPULATION CLOCK-7,124,004,668

Top 5 Populous CountriesTop 5 Populous Countries

Ranking Country Population(millions)

1 China 1,349,585,838

2 India 1,220,800,359

3 United States 316,668,567

4 Indonesia 251,160,124

5 Brazil 201,009,622

IndiaIndia

• India’s population , as on 1st March 2011 stood at 12101.9 lakh (6237lakhs males and 5864 lakh females).

• India accounts for a meagre 2.4%of total world surface area of 1357.9 lakhs sq km

Top 5 Populous States in IndiaTop 5 Populous States in India

Rank State Population Comparable country

Population

1 Uttar Pradesh 199,581,477 Brazil 155,111,022

2 Maharashtra 112,372,972 Mexico 61,545,441

3 Bihar 103,804,637 Philippines 92,075,028

4 West Bengal 91,347,736 Vietnam 62,213,676

5 Andhra Pradesh 84,655,533 Germany 56,311,788

Demographic StagesDemographic Stages

Demographic transition Demographic transition

Demographic transition in India from 1901-2011

Sex RatioSex Ratio

• The country has a low sex ratio of 940 female per thousand male, which has shown slight improvement during the last

decade.

Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid

Fertility indicatorsFertility indicators

• Crude Birth Rate,• General Fertility Rate,• Age Specific Fertility• Total Fertility/Marital Fertility Rates • Gross Reproduction Rate

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

• Crude birth rate = Number of live births during the year

------------------------------------------------ x 1000

Mid-year population 

CBR,CDR,NDRCBR,CDR,NDR•Estimated birth rate declined from 25.8 in 2000 to 22.1 in 2010.

•The death rate declined from 8.5 to 7.2 per 1000 population from 2000-2010.

•The population, however, continues to grow, as the decline in the birth rate is not as rapid as the decline in the death rate

CBR by StateCBR by State

General fertility RateGeneral fertility Rate

• General Fertility Rate (GFR), a refined measure of fertility, defined as the number of live births per thousand women in the reproductive age-group 15-49 years, is a useful tool for measuring fertility.

• General fertility rate(GFR) = Number of live births in a year

-------------------------------------- x 1000

Mid-year female population in the age-group (15-49)

GFR by StateGFR by State

Age Specific Fertility Rate Age Specific Fertility Rate

Age-specific fertility Rate = Number of live births in a particular age-group

--------------------------------------------------------- x 1000

Mid-year female population of the same age-group 

ASFRASFR

Age Groups

Total Rural Urban

15-19 30.7 35.3 16.5

20-24 196.7 216.8 143.8

25-29 153.4 163.7 129.6

30-34 69.8 74.6 58.8

40-44 8.7 10.9 3.6

45-49 2.8 3.6 1.0

Total Fertility RateTotal Fertility Rate

• The cumulative value of the age specific fertility rates at the end of the child bearing ages gives a measure of fertility known as Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

• TFR indicates the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her entire span of reproductive period assuming that the age specific fertility rates, to which she is exposed to,continue to be the same and that there is no mortality.

45-49

• Total fertility rate(TFR) = 5 x ∑ ASFR 15-19

----------------------

1000

 

TFR by StatesTFR by States

Gross Reproduction rateGross Reproduction rate

• Another refined measure of fertility which accounts for future mothers is the Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR).

• It measures the average number of female children a woman is expected to give birth during her entire reproductive span conforming to the age specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for a given year, if there is no mortality.

• Gross Reproduction Rate(GRR)= 45-49

5 x ∑ ASFR for female live birth

15-19

----------------------

1000

 

Estimates of Mortality IndicatorsEstimates of Mortality Indicators• Crude Death Rate (CDR)• Under-five Mortality Rate (U5MR),• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) • Age Specific Mortality Rates (ASMR),• Still Birth Rate (SBR) and Peri-Natal Mortality Rate (PMR).

Crude Death RateCrude Death Rate

• Crude death Rate (CDR) = Number of deaths during the year

------------------------------------------ x 1000

Mid Year population

CDR by StateCDR by State

Under 5 MortalityUnder 5 Mortality

• Under-five Mortality Rate = The under-five mortality is the probability that a child born in a specific year or time period will die before reaching the age of five, subject to current age specific mortality rates. It

is expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births.

Under 5 Mortality ratesUnder 5 Mortality rates

IMRIMR

Infant Mortality Rate has declined considerably (47 i.e. per 1000 Live Births in 2010),

Projected PopulationProjected Population

Year Population (million)

2021 1345.24

2031 1463.23

2041 1559.97

2051 1627.96

Data SourcesData Sources

• National Census• Civil Registration system• Sample Registration System• Demographic Health Surveys-

NFHS,DLHS

• Economic Implications• Health Implications• Increase in Longetivity

Implications of Demographic TransitionImplications of Demographic Transition

Economic ImplicationEconomic Implication

• The Next two decades will witness-

-Increase in 15-59 age group from 519-800 million

-Low Dependency Ratio• Challenge is to ensure

-Adequate investment in HRD

-Appropriate employment.• Opportunity is to

-Utilize available abundant human resources to accelerate economic development

Health ImplicationsHealth Implications

• Challenge is the massive increase in the number of people of the age group 15-59

-They will need wider spectrum of services Maternal and child health services Contraceptive care Gynecological problems RTI/STD management Expect better quality Health services

• Opportunity-

Their felt needs are meet through RCH programmes

• Age group below 15 years• There will be no increase in the numbers .Focus will be to

improve on the quality and nutrition services and achieve improvement in Health and Nutrition status

• Improve access to education and skill development• Improve access to immunization services.• Improve quality health care to vulnerable adolescent.

Implications in Increase in LongetivityImplications in Increase in Longetivity• As many as 70% of the aged depend on others for existence.• Situation still worse for elderly women.85-87%

economically dependent • Common geriatric problems• Five most common cause of death in elederly-

Bronchitis,pneumonia,IHD,stroke ,cancer and TB

ReferncesRefernces

1) Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2011, Office of The RegistrarGeneral, INDIA MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS GOVERNMENT OF INDIA ,NEW DELHI.

2) Basic Guide to the World ,Population Trends 1950 to 2050,A report from the Social Change Research project 2010

3) Family Welfare Statistics in India - 2011 & CensusIndia.gov

4) Population Projections-1996 Population Projections and their implications to health care of women and children,Chapter 2