demographic trends in kentucky - ky state data center trends in kentucky by race and age: 2000-2030...

Demographic Trends in Kentucky by Race and Age: 2000-2030 Tom Sawyer and Sarah Ehresman Kentucky State Data Center University of Louisville Kentucky Arts Council Frankfort, Kentucky November 15, 2013

Data Sources

Decennial Census 2000

2010

Population Estimates Post-censal estimates

2012

Projections Demographic cohort-component method

2020

2030

Core Based Statistical Areas

CBSA’s are defined by counties

Metropolitan Statistical Areas Based on Urbanized Areas of 50,000 or more

Comprised of the host county plus neighboring counties linked by commuting

Micropolitan Statistical Areas Based on Urban Clusters of 10,000 – 49,999

Comprised of the host county plus neighboring counties linked by commuting

Rural Areas Counties not included within an urban area

Kentucky’s Core Based Statistical Areas

Metropolitan Areas

Bowling Green, KY

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Clarksville, TN-KY

Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY

Evansville, IN-KY

Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH

Lexington-Fayette, KY

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Owensboro, KY

Micropolitan Areas Bardstown, KY Campbellsville, KY Danville, KY Frankfort, KY Glasgow, KY London, KY Madisonville, KY Mayfield, KY Maysville, KY Middlesborough, KY Mount Sterling, KY Murray, KY Paducah, KY-IL Richmond-Berea, KY Somerset, KY Union City, TN-KY

Kentucky Counties by Core Based Statistical Areas

55.7%

19.5%

24.8%

Population Distribution by Core Based Statistical Areas

2000

Metropolitan

Micropolitan

Rural

57.6%

19.3%

23.1%


2010

Metropolitan

Micropolitan

Rural

0.1%

6.2%

11.0%

7.4%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

Population Growth 2000 - 2010

998

48,949

247,651

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan


-0.2%

3.2%

4.0%

4.4%

10.3%

10.8%

12.3%

15.6%

17.5%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%


Evansville, IN-KY

Clarksville, TN-KY

Owensboro, KY





Bowling Green, KY

Metro Areas Population Growth 2000 - 2010

Kentucky 7.4%

-12.1%

-4.6%

-0.3%

0.3%

0.9%

4.1%

4.1%

5.0%

5.9%

6.9%

8.7%

8.8%

10.5%

12.2%

14.3%

15.9%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Union City, TN-KY

Middlesborough, KY

Paducah, KY-IL

Mayfield, KY

Madisonville, KY

Maysville, KY

Danville, KY

London, KY

Frankfort, KY

Campbellsville, KY

Glasgow, KY

Murray, KY

Mount Sterling, KY

Somerset, KY

Richmond-Berea, KY

Bardstown, KY

Micro Areas Population Growth 2000 – 2010

Kentucky 7.4%

89.3%

1.5%

7.3%

2.0%

Kentucky Population by Race 2000

White

Hispanic

Black

Other

86.3%

3.1%

7.7%

2.9%


White

Hispanic

Black

Other

95.7%

93.0%

85.1%

89.3%

0.9%

1.0%

1.9%

1.5%

2.4%

4.5%

10.4%

7.3%

1.0%

1.5%

2.6%

2.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

Population by Race 2000

White Hispanic Black Other

94.7%

91.4%

81.2%

86.3%

1.5%

2.0%

4.0%

3.1%

2.4%

4.4%

10.9%

7.7%

1.4%

2.3%

3.8%

2.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky



-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Kentucky Metropolitan Micropolitan Rural

Percent Change in Population by Race 2000 - 2010


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%



Owensboro, KY

Evansville, IN-KY

Bowling Green, KY




Clarksville, TN-KY

Metro Areas Population by Race 2000


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%



Owensboro, KY

Evansville, IN-KY

Bowling Green, KY




Clarksville, TN-KY



-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Clarksville, TN-KY



Evansville, IN-KY



Owensboro, KY

Bowling Green, KY


Metro Areas Percent Change in Minority Population by Race

2000 - 2010 Hispanic Black Other

994,818

969,966

1,572,192

504,793

Kentucky Population by Age 2000

0-17

18-34

35-64

65+

1,027,486

974,902 1,758,752

578,227


0-17

18-34

35-64

65+

24.3

24.0

25.0

24.6

22.6

23.7

24.7

24.0

39.6

38.8

38.6

38.9

13.4

13.5

11.7

12.5

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

Population by Age 2000

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

22.8

23.3

24.2

23.7

20.5

21.6

23.5

22.5

41.8

40.5

40.0

40.5

14.8

14.6

12.3

13.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky


0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0


Percent Change in Population by Age 2000-2010

total 0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

25.7

24.7

22.9

22.6

24.6

27.7

27.5

26.9

23.7

21.6

22.9

29

20.9

21.8

24.3

31.3

24.1

27.8

39

39.8

37.8

41.4

40.4

38.1

30.4

38.3

37

13.7

12.6

10.3

15.2

13.1

9.9

10.8

10.7

11.5

Owensboro, KY




Evansville, IN-KY


Clarksville, TN-KY


Bowling Green, KY

Metro Areas by Age 2000

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

24.3

23.7

23.2

21.7

23.4

25.9

27.8

25.5

23.9

20.6

22.4

26.6

19.2

20.7

23.6

27.7

22.8

26.3

40.3

41.1

39.1

42.3

41.8

39.2

32.8

40.5

37.5

14.7

12.8

11.1

16.8

14.2

11.3

11.7

11.1

12.2

Owensboro, KY




Evansville, IN-KY


Clarksville, TN-KY


Bowling Green, KY


0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0


Evansville, IN-KY

Clarksville, TN-KY

Owensboro, KY





Bowling Green, KY

Metro Areas Percent Change by Age 2000 - 2010

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

58.0%

19.2%

22.8%


2012

Metropolitan

Micropolitan

Rural

-6,065

5,248

41,865

41,048

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky


-0.6%

0.6%

1.7%

0.9%

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky


-0.7%

0.6%

1.1%

1.4%

1.5%

1.5%

1.8%

2.3%

2.7%

-1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3%


Evansville, IN-KY

Owensboro, KY




Clarksville, TN-KY

Bowling Green, KY


Metro Areas Population Growth 2010 - 2012

Kentucky 0.9%

-4.2%

-1.8%

-0.4%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.3%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

1.1%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

1.8%

2.0%

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

Union City, TN-KY

Middlesborough, KY

Madisonville, KY

Danville, KY

Paducah, KY-IL

Maysville, KY

London, KY

Glasgow, KY

Campbellsville, KY

Somerset, KY

Mayfield, KY

Frankfort, KY

Mount Sterling, KY

Murray, KY

Richmond-Berea, KY

Bardstown, KY

Micro Areas Population Growth 2010 – 2012

Kentucky 0.9%

85.9%

3.2%

7.9%

3.0%


White

Hispanic

Black

Other

2000 2010

94.4%

91.1%

80.8%

85.9%

1.7%

2.1%

4.2%

3.2%

2.5%

4.5%

11.1%

7.9%

1.4%

2.3%

3.9%

3.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky



-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%


Percent Change in Population by Race 2010 -2012


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%



Owensboro, KY

Evansville, IN-KY

Bowling Green, KY




Clarksville, TN-KY



-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%


Owensboro, KY

Evansville, IN-KY



Clarksville, TN-KY

Bowling Green, KY





1,018,238

991,549 1,755,975

614,653


0-17

18-34

35-64

65+

22.5

22.8

23.7

23.2

20.4

21.9

23.7

22.6

41.3

39.9

39.6

40.1

15.7

15.4

12.9

14.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky


0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


Percent Change in Population by Age 2010 - 2012

total 0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

24.3

23.4

22.4

21.6

23.5

25.3

26.7

25.3

22.6

20.6

22.4

27.1

19.2

20.7

23.3

29.5

22.6

27.5

39.6

40.7

38.8

41.7

41

39.5

31.8

40.3

37

15.5

13.5

11.7

17.5

14.8

11.9

11.9

11.8

12.9

Owensboro, KY




Evansville, IN-KY


Clarksville, TN-KY


Bowling Green, KY


0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0


Evansville, IN-KY

Owensboro, KY




Clarksville, TN-KY

Bowling Green, KY


Metro Areas Percent Change by Age 2010-2012

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

59.3% 19.0%

21.6%

Projected Population Distribution by Core Based Statistical Areas

2020

Metropolitan

Micropolitan

Rural

61.0% 18.8%

20.1%


2030

Metropolitan

Micropolitan

Rural

61.0

59.3

57.6

55.7

18.8

19.0

19.3

19.5

20.1

21.6

23.1

24.8

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

2030

2020

2010

2000


2000 - 2030 Metropolitan Micropolitan Rural

0.7%

6.5%

10.9%

7.7%

-1.5%

4.7%

9.1%

6.0%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

Projected Population Growth 2010-2030

2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030

-0.1%

2.9%

4.9%

6.6%

9.5%

10.3%

11.5%

15.0%

16.5%

-2.0%

1.1%

3.1%

5.1%

7.0%

8.6%

9.3%

13.4%

13.6%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%


Evansville, IN-KY

Owensboro, KY

Clarksville, TN-KY





Bowling Green, KY

Metro Areas Projected Population Growth 2010 - 2030

2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030

Kentucky 7.7% 6.0%

-8.7%

-3.6%

1.1%

1.4%

2.3%

3.8%

4.5%

5.1%

5.3%

6.4%

8.5%

8.7%

10.2%

12.6%

13.0%

15.4%

-11.1%

-6.0%

-0.7%

-0.2%

0.4%

1.6%

2.2%

3.0%

3.3%

4.6%

6.7%

7.9%

8.4%

10.4%

11.0%

12.4%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Union City, TN-KY

Middlesborough, KY

Paducah, KY-IL

Mayfield, KY

Madisonville, KY

Danville, KY

London, KY

Frankfort, KY

Maysville, KY

Campbellsville, KY

Glasgow, KY

Murray, KY

Mount Sterling, KY

Somerset, KY

Richmond-Berea, KY

Bardstown, KY

Micro Areas Projected Population Growth 2010 - 2030

2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030

Kentucky 7.7% 6.0%

83.4%

4.6%

8.0%

3.9%

Kentucky Projected Population by Race 2020

White

Hispanic

Black

Other

2010

80.5%

6.2%

8.4%

4.9%

Kentucky Projected Population by Race 2030

White

Hispanic

Black

Other

2010 2020

93.9%

89.8%

77.4%

83.4%

2.1%

3.0%

6.2%

4.6%

2.2%

4.2%

11.4%

8.0%

1.5%

2.8%

4.9%

3.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

Projected Population by Race 2020


93.0%

88.1%

73.4%

80.5%

2.8%

4.0%

8.4%

6.2%

2.0%

4.1%

12.0%

8.4%

1.7%

3.5%

6.2%

4.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

Projected Population by Race 2030


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%




-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%




73.4%

77.4%

81.2%

85.1%

8.4%

6.2%

4.0%

1.9%

12.0%

11.4%

10.9%

10.4%

6.2%

4.9%

3.8%

2.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2030

2020

2010

2000

Metro Areas Projected Population by Race 2000 - 2030


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Owensboro, KY


Evansville, IN-KY

Bowling Green, KY


Clarksville, TN-KY



Metro Areas Projected Population by Race 2030


-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

Clarksville, TN-KY


Evansville, IN-KY



Owensboro, KY


Bowling Green, KY




1,055,340

1,015,920

1,814,427

787,067

Kentucky Projected Population by Age 2020

0-17

18-34

35-64

65+

1,091,285

1,051,767

1,810,042

998,084

Kentucky Projected Population by Age 2030

0-17

18-34

35-64

65+

21.6

22.1

23.1

22.6

19.8

21.0

22.7

21.7

39.5

38.6

38.6

38.8

19.0

18.3

15.6

16.8

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

Projected Population by Age 2020

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

21.1

21.6

22.5

22.0

19.3

20.6

22.1

21.2

36.9

36.2

36.5

36.6

22.7

21.6

18.9

20.2

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Rural

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

Projected Population by Age 2030

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0



total 0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0



total 0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

22.5%

23.1%

24.2%

25.0%

22.1%

22.7%

23.5%

24.7%

36.5%

38.6%

40.0%

38.6%

18.9%

15.6%

12.3%

11.7%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

2030

2020

2010

2000

Metro Areas Projected Population by Age 2000 -2030

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

23.5

22.7

22.5

21.3

22.1

24

26.5

23.8

23.1

20.1

21.9

25.3

18.8

20.2

22.2

26.9

21.7

24.8

38.2

39.3

37.9

40.1

39.1

39.2

32.1

39.7

36.5

18.2

16.1

14.3

19.9

18.6

14.6

14.5

14.7

15.5

Owensboro, KY




Evansville, IN-KY


Clarksville, TN-KY


Bowling Green, KY

Metro Areas Projected Population by Age 2020

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

22.9

22.3

21.9

20.9

21.7

22.9

25.9

23.0

22.4

19.9

21.2

24.9

18.6

20.1

21.3

26.2

20.6

24.6

35.5

37.3

35.9

37.7

35.4

36.8

30.7

37.7

34.1

21.8

19.2

17.2

22.7

22.9

19.0

17.3

18.7

18.9

Owensboro, KY




Evansville, IN-KY


Clarksville, TN-KY


Bowling Green, KY

Metro Areas Projected Population by Age 2030

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

-20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0


Evansville, IN-KY

Owensboro, KY

Clarksville, TN-KY





Bowling Green, KY

Metro Areas Percent Change by Age 2010 - 2020 0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0


Evansville, IN-KY

Owensboro, KY

Clarksville, TN-KY





Bowling Green, KY

Metro Areas Percent Change by Age 2020 - 2030 0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

Kentucky’s population growth has occurred predominantly in Metropolitan areas and in Micropolitan areas to a lesser extent

Most of the population growth has been in minority populations

The population 35-64 and 65+ have grown as the baby-boomers age.

These trends are likely to continue into the future

demographic trends in kentucky - ky state data center trends in kentucky by race and age: 2000-2030...

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