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TRANSCRIPT
Demographic Trends in the Context of the
Global Thematic Consultation on Population
Dynamics
Presentation at the Member State Briefing on “Global Thematic Consultation on Population
Dynamics in the Context of the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda”
Tuesday 22 January
Conference Room 2, North Lawn Building
John Wilmoth
Director, Population Division, UN-DESA
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The Post-2015 Development Agenda
The MDGs have served as a shared framework for global action since 2000.
The UN is now working closely with
different international stakeholders to
ensure a sustainable development path beyond 2015.
The SG has taken several initiatives:
- High-Level Panel of Eminent
Persons- Special Advisor on Post-2015
- UN System wide Task Team
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Realizing the Future We Want for All
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Population Challenges
Change in the Absolute Size of the PopulationFertility dynamics Mortality dynamics
Change in the Relative Size of Particular CohortsYouth Ageing
Change in the Spatial Distribution of the PopulationInternational and Internal MigrationConcentration (urbanization)
The UN System Wide Task Team identified a number of demographic trends that should be taken into account when developing the post-2015
development agenda:
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Total Population by Variant, 1950-2050B
illio
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Constant fertility
High fertility
Medium fertility
Instant replacement fertility
Low fertility
10.910.6
9.1
8.1
9.3
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nAnnual Population Growth Rate, 1990-2010
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Disclaimer: This thematic map is for data illustration purposes only. The boundaries, names shown and designations used on this map donot imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
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nAnnual Population Growth Rate, 2010-2050 (medium variant)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Disclaimer: This thematic map is for data illustration purposes only. The boundaries, names shown and designations used on this map
do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
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n Of the 6.9 billion people in the world in 2010
…… 214 million or 3.1 per cent were 214 million or 3.1 per cent were international migrantsinternational migrants
International Migration
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Differential impact of international migration
United Nations United Nations
Population Division/DESAPopulation Division/DESA
Total net change
Immigration-emigrationBirths-deaths
EuropeSlowing decline
AfricaReducing growth,but little impact
North AmericaAdding to growth
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nRelative Cohort Size
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Total Population by Age Groups, 1950-2050M
illio
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050Ages 0-14
Ages 15-64
Ages 65+
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nChanges in Relative Cohort Size Creates a Window of Opportunity
(“Demographic Bonus”)
Dependency Ratio = Young + Old
Working Ages
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
High Income Countries
Middle and Low IncomeCountries
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nAdolescents
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nMDG Years Have Seen Large Increases in Young People in Middle
and Low-Income Countries. Not so for 2015-2050M
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ns
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Ages 10-14
Ages 15-19
Ages 20-24
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nSimilarly, in High-Income Countries (taken collectively), the size of
Youth Cohorts has been falling. Now Will Be More LevelM
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ns
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Ages 10-14
Ages 15-19
Ages 20-24
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nPopulation Ageing
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
World: Total Fertility, 1950-2100C
hild
ren
per
wom
an
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Constant fertility
High fertility
Medium fertility
Instant replacement fertility
Low fertility
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nTrend in Highest Achieved Life Expectancy at Birth on Record
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Female Life Expectancy at Birth, 1950-2050Y
ears
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin America and the CaribbeanNorthern AmericaOceania
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Population Age 0-19 and 50+ Years
Age 0-19 Age 50+
50+ population will increase from 1.4 to 3.1 billion
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
OceaniaNorthern AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanEuropeAsiaAfrica
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
OceaniaNorthern AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanEuropeAsiaAfrica
Bill
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nThe Challenge of Rapid Urbanization
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York
Future World Population Growth Will Be Mainly in
Urban AreasB
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Urban
Rural
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Almost All Growth Will Take Place in Middle and Low Income CountriesM
illio
ns
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Urban, Middle & Low IncomeCountriesUrban, High Income Countries
Rural, All Countries
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-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000
1990-2010
2010-2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York
Urban and Rural Population Change: 1990-2010, 2010-2050
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Oceania
Europe
N. America
L. America &Caribbean
Asia
Africa
1990-2010
2010-2050
Population Changes (Millions)
Urban Population Rural Population
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York
World: Mega-Cities with 10+ Million Inhabitants
Number Population (millions)
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nConclusions
• Population dynamics – including changes in population growth rates, age structures, and distributions of people are closely linked to development challenges
• Significant trends include high (and low) population growth, international migration, relative cohort effects (youth bulges in some places, rapid ageing), & urbanization.
• Population consultation now underway to understand the importance of these (and other) significant demographic trends within the post-2015 development agenda.
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Thank you !
http://www.worldwewant2015.org/population