demonstration workshop brussels, 26.11.2008
DESCRIPTION
Demonstration of capabilities of a bi-regional CGE model to assess impacts of rural development policies (RURMOD-E). Demonstration Workshop Brussels, 26.11.2008. POLICY- SCENARIOS RESULTS. Eudokia Balamou and Demetrios Psaltopoulos Department of Economics University of Patras. Scenarios. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Demonstration of capabilities of a bi-regional CGE model to assess impacts of rural development policies (RURMOD-E)
Demonstration WorkshopBrussels, 26.11.2008
POLICY- SCENARIOS RESULTS
Eudokia Balamou and Demetrios Psaltopoulos
Department of Economics
University of Patras
Scenarios
Scenarios ProdSub
DP RDP public fundinig
Total Distribution to Axes
Axis 1 Axis 2 Axis 3
FULDEC Decoupling 0 100% 0
MODUL Support exclusively to investment in constructions
0 87% 13% Pillar 2 + nat. coffin.
√ √
SOFTMOD Support to investment (construction, equipment), training, etc.
0 87% 13% Pillar 2 + nat. coffin.
√ √
RDM-AGRI Agricultural centered RD measures (axis 1 and Axis 2)
0 87% 13% Pillar 2 + EAFRD(1,2)+ nat. coffin.
√ √
RDIVERS Diversification of rural economy (311,312)
Project √
RENOV Renovation and Development of Villages (322)
Project √
ARCHANES – HERAKLIONImpacts on GDP at Factor Cost (% change from base-year)
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT
MODRDM-AGRI (Axes 1, 2)
RDIVERS RENOV
Rural -0.86 -0.86 3.92 -1.08 0.01 0.53
Primary -1.04 -1.06 -1.48 -0.83 -0.01 -0.15
Secondary -5.79 -5.68 1.87 -6.71 0.57 1.47
Tertiary 0.16 0.16 9.20 -0.35 -0.08 1.00
Urban 0.03 0.02 -0.01 0.05 0.00 0.09
Primary -8.29 -8.31 -8.96 -8.26 -0.02 -0.01
Secondary 0.90 1.08 -6.60 0.83 0.37 -5.73
Tertiary 0.25 0.21 1.50 0.28 -0.06 1.07
Total -0.01 -0.02 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.11
ARCHANES-HERAKLIONImpacts on Domestic Production
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT MOD
RDM-AGRI
(Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Primary -5.58 -5.54 -6.35 -6.11 -0.02 -0.10
Secondary 0.19 0.36 -6.15 0.09 0.32 -4.95
Tertiary 0.26 0.23 1.79 0.27 -0.07 0.96
Total 0.12 0.14 -0.10 0.10 0.02 -0.34
FULL DEC MODUL SOFTMOD
RDM-AGRI
(Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Primary 7.95 7.89 5.73 8.47 -0.13 -1.46
Secondary 1.29 1.32 0.58 1.26 -0.02 -1.05
Tertiary -9.24 -9.27 -9.77 -8.88 -9.12 -9.23
Impacts on Producer Prices
ARCHANES-HERAKLIONFactor Income Effects
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFTM
OD
RDM-AGRI
(Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Uns.Lab -1.22 -1.22 -0.95 -1.23 -0.05 -0.57
Sk.Lab 0.05 0.06 0.44 0.06 -0.02 -0.14
Capital 0.07 0.08 0.38 0.02 -0.07 0.39
RAgrLand -9.19 -9.24 -9.51 -8.90 -0.09 0.18
RLandH -0.28 -0.68 2.00 3.99 -0.09 0.64
ULandH 0.04 0.02 0.54 0.05 -0.07 0.08
AGCAP -18.19 -18.24 -19.96 -17.86 -0.10 -0.90
AGRENTS -16.87 -16.92 -18.70 -16.45 -0.10 -0.96
ARCHANES-HERAKLIONEmployment Effects
FULL DEC. MODULSOFT MOD
RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Unskilled Labor
Rural -3.29 -3.30 0.13 -3.37 -0.01 1.01
Urban 0.15 0.15 -0.01 0.16 0.00 -0.05
Skilled Labor
Rural -2.40 -2.37 18.79 -2.90 0.21 -0.16
Urban 0.04 0.04 -0.33 0.05 -0.004 0.003
ARCHANES-HERAKLIONHousehold Income Effects
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT
MOD
RDM-AGRI
(Axes 1,2)RDIVERS RENOV
R- P/M Comm. -1.17 -1.20 -0.96 -0.75 -0.04 -0.35
R-W Comm. -0.65 -0.68 -0.28 -0.34 -0.05 -0.05
R-Comm-ROW -0.25 -0.28 -0.004 0.13 -0.02 -0.08
R-P/M Other -1.82 -1.83 -1.65 -1.69 -0.05 -0.20
R-W Other -1.00 -1.02 -0.77 -0.85 -0.04 -0.15
U-P/M Comm. -0.36 -0.38 -0.08 -0.31 -0.05 -0.10
U-W Comm. -0.29 -0.29 0.001 -0.29 -0.04 -0.07
U-Comm.ROW -0.25 -0.26 0.08 -0.25 -0.05 -0.01
U-P/M Other -0.32 -0.32 0.05 -0.33 -0.05 -0.07
U-W Other -0.19 -0.18 0.21 -0.20 -0.06 0.07
RAGHHS 5.21 3.34 2.73 26.70 -0.07 -0.68
UAGHHS 0.59 0.38 0.62 0.89 -0.06 -0.08
DISTRICT BRUNTALImpacts on GDP at Factor Cost (% change from base year)
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFTMOD
RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Rural -2.30 -0.001 0.03 1.78 0.59 -0.02
Primary -32.86 -0.025 -0.07 1.82 46.29 -0.08
Secondary -1.63 -0.002 -0.02 2.76 -0.99 -0.19
Tertiary 0.22 0.001 0.07 1.05 -1.26 0.11
Urban -0.52 0.001 0.03 1.10 -0.69 0.15
Secondary -0.93 -0.002 -0.02 1.41 -0.36 -0.21
Tertiary -0.30 0.002 0.06 0.93 -0.87 0.35
Total -0.91 0.00 0.03 1.25 -0.41 0.11
DISTRICT BRUNTALImpacts on Domestic Production
Impacts on Producer Prices
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFTMOD
RDM-AGRI
(Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Primary -26.76 -26.78 -26.83 -25.44 -0.09 -0.18
Secondary -1.33 -1.33 -1.38 0.61 -0.04 -0.17
Tertiary -0.36 -0.35 -0.31 0.86 -0.26 0.10
Total -1.10 -1.10 -1.08 0.38 -0.10 -0.001
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFTMOD
RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Primary 20.66 20.64 20.59 11.53 -0.22 -0.24
Secondary 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.27 -0.05 -0.02
Tertiary -0.17 -1.16 -1.19 0.65 -0.01 -0.04
DISTRICT BRUNTALFactor Income Effects
FULL DEC. MODUL
SOFT MOD
RDM-AGRI
(Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
R-Uns. Lab -4.80 -4.80 -4.78 -2.09 0.15 0.01
R-Sk. Lab -2.65 -2.65 -2.60 -0.23 0.07 0.08
U-Uns. Lab -0.94 -0.94 -0.90 0.79 -0.11 0.07
U-Sk. Lab -0.91 -0.91 -0.86 0.86 -0.13 0.10
Capital -1.29 -1.29 -1.23 0.67 -0.15 0.14
R.Agr. Land -4.78 -4.79 -4.81 0.82 -0.59 -0.85
R-LandH -1.20 -1.20 -1.11 1.11 -0.16 0.23
U-LandH -1.70 -1.68 -1.71 1.24 -0.21 -0.16
AGCAP -43.65 -43.67 -43.74 -41.39 -0.29 -0.41
AGRENTS -43.65 -43.67 -43.74 -41.39 -0.29 -0.41
DISTRICT BRUNTALEmployment Effects
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT MODRDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Unskilled Labor
Rural -6.86 -6.86 -6.85 -4.19 0.22 0.01
Urban -0.96 -0.95 -0.91 0.81 -0.08 0.07
Skilled Labor
Rural -3.99 -3.99 0.16 -1.52 0.15 0.07
Urban -0.93 -0.93 0.21 0.86 -0.10 0.10
DITRICT BRUNTALHousehold Income Effects
FULL DEC.MODU
LSOFT MOD
RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
R-Commuter -2.19 -2.19 -2.15 0.18 -0.01 0.07
R-Other -2.30 -2.30 -2.26 -0.02 -0.01 0.07
U-Commuter -1.84 -1.86 -1.88 1.73 -0.26 -0.26
U-Other -1.32 -1.32 -1.27 0.95 -0.17 0.10
RAGHHS 77.10 39.47 39.47 80.44 -0.09 -0.15
Introduction of Direct payments LFA and Early
Retirment payments
Comparison of Results
GreeceRural
CzechRural
GreeceUrban
CzechUrban
GreeceTotal
CzechTotal
FULL DEC. -0.86 -2.30 0.03 -0.52 -0.01 -0.91
MODUL -0.86 -0.001 0.02 0.001 -0.02 0.00
SOFTMOD 3.92 0.03 -0.01 0.03 0.16 0.03RDM-AGRI
(Axes 1,2) 1.08 1.78 0.05 1.10 0.00 1.25
RDIVERS 0.01 0.59 0.00 -0.69 0.00 -0.41
RENOV 0.53 -0.02 0.09 0.15 0.11 0.11
Impacts on GDP at Factor Cost
Comparison of Results
Impacts on Domestic Output
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT
MOD
RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
GreeceTotal 0.12 0.14 -0.10 0.10 0.02 -0.34
CzechTotal -1.10 -1.10 -1.08 0.38 -0.10 -0.001
Comparison of Results Employment Effects
FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT MODRDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2) RDIVERS RENOV
Unskilled Labor
GR-Rural -3.29 -3.30 0.13 -3.37 -0.01 1.01
CZ-Rural -6.86 -6.86 -6.85 -4.19 0.22 0.01
GR-Urban 0.15 0.15 -0.01 0.16 0.00 -0.05
GR-Urban -0.96 -0.95 -0.91 0.81 -0.08 0.07
Skilled Labor
GR-Rural -2.40 -2.37 18.79 -2.90 0.21 -0.16
CZ-Rural -3.99 -3.99 0.16 -1.52 0.15 0.07
GR-Urban 0.04 0.04 -0.33 0.05 -0.004 0.003
CZ-Urban -0.93 -0.93 0.21 0.86 -0.10 0.10
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