DENIM

INTELLIGENCE REPORT

relevant DEMAND SIGNALS

analyze PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES

actionable BUSINESS INSIGHTS

SOCIAL SEARCH SKUs

the

consumer

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MARKET SCORECARD

PRICE ANALYSIS

EMERGING TRENDS -----------------------------------------------

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CORE SILHOUETTES

BRANDS TO WACH

MARKET INNOVATION

REPORT OVERVIEW

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The denim market is undergoing substantial disruption,

unseen since the rise and fall of premium denim in the

2000s.

1. Customer experience innovation and new players

entering the market are leveling the playing field.

2. Purchasing decisions are moving from brand-driven

to trend-driven.

3. A vintage revival is leading to an influx of new

silhouettes.

DENIM DISRUPTION

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Flare

6%

FAST FASHION

Current Trend: Distressed

Test Opportunity: Step Hem

Current Trend: High Waist

Skinny

Test Opportunity: Cropped

Flare

Current Trend: Frayed Hem

Test Opportunity: Denim

Jacket

Current Trend: Embroidery

Test Opportunity: Lace Up

Skinny/Stretch

55%

Straight

15%

Relaxed

7%

Cropped

7%

Bootcut

6%

Flare

3%

SPECIALTY

Skinny/Stret

ch 72%

Relaxed

6%

Cropped

5%

Bootcut

1%

Distressed

10%

Straight

4%

PREMIUM

Skinny/Stretch

52%

Relaxed

4%

Cropped

15%

Bootcut

4%

Straight

12%

Distressed

7%

LUXURY

Skinny/Stretc

h 40%

Relaxed

4%

Cropped

14%

Bootcut

3% Flare

9%

Straight

20%

Distressed

10%

Flare

2%

Distressed

7%

WOMENS DENIM

FAST FASHION SPECIALTY LUXURY

MENS DENIM

Men’s Slim Fit Jeans Men’s Stretch Jeans

Skinny

40% Slim

22%

Straight

18%

Distressed

3% Tapered

4%

Relaxed

4%

Bootcut

3%

Straight

35%

Slim

18%

Skinny

24%

Tapered

3%

Relaxed

3%

Bootcut

2%

PREMIUM

Stretch

6%

Distressed

4%

Stretch

11%

Straight

34%

Skinny

16%

Slim

29%

Relaxed

1% Bootcut

1% Distressed

6%

Stretch

9%

Tapered

5%

Slim

30%

Skinny

19%

Straight

21%

Tapered

4%

Relaxed

1% Distressed

11%

Stretch

14%

MARKET AUR RANGE DENIM AVERAGE

FULL PRICE %

DIVISION

AVERAGE FULL

PRICE %

FAST FASHION $43.22 $10 - $50 62% 50%

SPECIALTY $71.37 $25 - $100 43% 40%

PREMIUM $149.45 $100 - $250 50% 50%

LUXURY $431.20 $250+ 56% 54%

MARKET AUR RANGE

DENIM

AVERAGE FULL

PRICE %

DIVISION

AVERAGE FULL

PRICE %

FAST FASHION $33.02 $10 - $50 36% 40%

SPECIALTY $69.31 $25 - $100 44% 41%

PREMIUM $147.00 $100 - $250 49% 50%

LUXURY $524.29 $250+ 66% 65%

WOMENS DENIM MENS DENIM

41% 46%

MEN Overall 46% of men’s products are currently at full price

with an AUR of $159.04 and average mkd rate of 24%.

Brands with highest product penetration include Diesel, 7

for all Mankind, Dsquared2, and Levi’s.

Retailers include Yoox, Farfetch, Amazon, and ASOS.

WOMEN Overall there are double the number of women’s products in

the market than men’s jeans. 41% of products are currently

at full price with an AUR $128.43 and average mkd rate of

34%.

Brands with the highest product penetration include J

Brand, Paige, 7 for all Mankind, and Current/Elliot.

Retailers include Yoox, TheRealReal, Farfetch, and Amazon.

products at full price products at full price

MARKET PRICING

MARKET AUR RANGE DENIM AVERAGE

FULL PRICE %

DENIM AVERAGE

MARKDOWN RATE

VALUE / OFF

PRICE $88.09 $10 - 500 21% 51%

AMAZON $88.52 $10 - 500 46% 10%

PRICING ARCHITECTURE

VALUE / OFF-PRICE AMAZON

VALUE vs. AMAZON

MARKET FAN COUNT SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT HIGHEST SOCIAL

ENGAGEMENT

FAST FASHION 154M 25M Forever 21, H&M, Topshop

SPECIALTY 131M 14M Hollister, Calvin Klein, Tommy

Hilfiger

PREMIUM 24M 2.6M Good America, A.P.C., Acne

LUXURY 127M 24M Dolce & Gabbana, Gucci

SOCIAL BUZZ

SOCIAL ACTIONS BY MARKET (JANUARY 2017)*

Market Penetration

Lo

w

Low Hig

h

Hig

h

Gro

wth

Rate

DENIM TREND ANALYSIS

WHAT’S HOT?

bomber jacket

DENIM JACKET

2x denim jacket

Positioned to

move out of the

early adopter

space with 90s

revival,

embroidery, and

distressing

driving this

trend.

outerwear

8x

DENIM CHOKER Nascent, +900%

Search Volume: 3k

AUR: $27.17

SKU’s: 60

NOT JUST JEANS

DENIM SKIRT Growing, +15%

Search Volume: 46k

AUR: $175

SKU’s: 1,800

DENIM OVERALLS Mature

Search Volume: 8k

AUR: $212

SKU’s: 133

EMBELLISHED DISTRESSED HEMS HACKS

TOP TRENDS ON THE RISE

nascent growing seasonal /

volatile

mature

PATCHED JEANS Growing +100%

Search Volume: 3k

Social Actions: 22k

AUR: $144

Products at full price: 44%

SKU’s: 141

Premium / Specialty

EMBROIDERED JEANS Growing +500%

Search Volume: 15k

Social Actions: 170k

AUR: $198

Products at full price: 42%

SKU’s: 1,600

Fast / Luxury

LACE-UP DENIM Nascent +65%

Search Volume: 2k

Social Actions: 42k AUR: $265.37

Products at full price: 56%

SKU’s: 224

Early Adopter

ONE TO WATCH:

RACER / SIDE

STRIPE Early Adopter

EMBELLISHED DENIM

ONE TO WATCH:

SLOGAN RIPPED Early Adopter

DISTRESSED

Growing 50%

Search Volume: 27k

Social Actions: 390k

AUR: $162

Products at full price: 52%

SKU’s: 5,000

Premium / Specialty

FRAYED Nascent/Growing 180%

Search Volume: 1,300

Social Actions: 42k

AUR: $184

Products at full price: 64%

SKU’s: 2,000

Fast / Luxury

RIPPED Growing 30%

Search Volume: 75k

Social Actions: 560k

AUR: $125

Products at full price: 52%

SKU’s: 1,300

Premium / Specialty

DISTRESSED DENIM

RAW HEM Growing +130%

Search Volume: 800

Social Actions: 18k

AUR: $182

Products at full price: 70%

SKU’s: 90

Specialty / Premium

CROP / KICK FLARE Growing 100%

Search Volume: 2,500

Social Actions: 1,400

AUR: $186

Product at full price: 80%

SKU’s: 200

Premium / Luxury

UNVEVEN / STEP

HEM Nascent, +230%

Search Volume: 300

Social Actions: 3,600

AUR: $182

Product at full price: 81%

Early Adopter / Premium

ONE TO WATCH:

RUFFLE HEM Early Adopter

HEM HACKS

FRAYED vs. EMBROIDERED frayed jeans embroidered jeans

STEP HEM FORECAST

step hem jeans velvet boots

social buzz & product styling

SEASONAL: Over the Knee Boots vs. Black Skinny

Jeans

vs.

Boyfriend Jeans & Stan

Smiths

Flare Jeans & Wedge

Heels

KEY ITEM ANALYSIS

OUTFIT: High Waist Jeans vs. Crop Tops

CORE SILHOUETTES

HIGH WAIST / RIPPED

SKINNY BOYFRIEND

growing mature nascent

WIDE LEG

Crop Flare Skinny Ripped High Waist Skinny Jegging

Wide Leg Mom Boyfriend Bootcut

Men's Tapered Men's Slim Stretch Straight Low-rise

nascent growing mature declining

CORE SILHOUETTES

PRODUCT PENETRATION

SEARCH VOLUME

SEARCH GROWTH

Boyfriend + Slip On

vs.

Flare Jean + Wedge Heels

Chambray Shirt: 5 years

Bomber Jacket: 2 years

Midi Skirt: 3 years

Emerging / Test

Silhouette Growing / Top Seller Mature / Core Fit

BOYFRIEND JEANS: when should we break up?

Peplum -

ACCELERATION Boyfriend Jeans - MOMENTUM

Joggers Hybrid Trend

Curve

JOGGERS S

ea

rch

vo

lum

e

Month (2012-2017)

7 FOR ALL MANKIND Fan Count: 85,658

AUR: $135.70

Average Mkd Rate: 29%

J BRAND Fan Count: 347,081

AUR: $157.53

Average Mkd Rate: 27%

JOE’S JEANS Fan Count: 56,228

AUR: $118.60

Average Mkd Rate: 34%

ROCK & REPUBLIC Fan Count: 1,129

AUR: $86.00

Average Mkd Rate: 1%

TRUE RELIGION Fan Count: 236,155

AUR: $123.00

Average Mkd Rate: 36%

CITIZENS OF HUMANITY Fan Count: 121,169

AUR: $206.00

Average Mkd Rate: 19%

Premium Brands: WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

then now future

BACK TO BRANDING?

DIRECT TO CONSUMER

JAPAN

• Denim Heritage

• Selvage

• Fabric

Innovation

Uniqlo - $

Beams - $$

Moussy - $$$

Bethnals- $$

CLOSED – $$$

IRO - $$$$

Marques’ Almeida -

$$$$

LOS ANGELES

• IT Silhouettes

• Made In USA

• Celeb

Endorsed Revice - $$

AMO - $$$

Mother - $$$

GRLFRND - $$$

EUROPE

• Fabric Tradition

• Minimalism

• IT Streetstyle

CENTERS OF INNOVATON

Good American Fan Count: 336k

Social Actions: 2.4M

Brand Prop: 0-24 sizing

AUR: $172

RE/DONE Fan Count: 150k

Social Actions: 640k

Brand Prop: Recycled Vintage

AUR: $291

Mott & Bow Fan Count: 13k

Social Actions: 1,200

Brand Prop: DTC / Try on at Home

AUR: 96-128

THE NEW GUARD

Second Skin Fan Count: 14.7 k

Social Actions: 880k

Brand Prop: Blogger Brand, Seasonless

Overalls

AUR: $230

Mother Denim Fan Count: 79k

Social Actions: 370k

Brand Prop: Indie LA, Miranda Kerr

collection

AUR: $187.79

BRANDS MAKING HEADLINES

3x1 Fan Count: 32k

Social Actions: 740k

Brand Prop: Custom Made

AUR: $177

PATCH BARS • Custom

• Instantaneous

• Interactive

Levis - $$

Madewell - $$

MiH Denim - $$$

Selfridges - $$$$

RETAIL EXPERIENCES

DIY • Perfect Fit

• Selvage Fabric

• One of a Kind

Vintage Twin - $$

Levis Lot 1 - $$$

3x1 - $$$$

SelvageWork - $$$$

SUSTAINABILITY • Reduce Footprint

• Value Proposition

• Unique Pieces

Revice - $$

RE/DONE - $$$

Vetements + Levi’s - $$$

interactive RETAIL

Cailler Chocolate VR

Interactive

Displays

(PERCH)

Personalized Tutorials

(MemoMi Smart Mirror)

Vanessa Bruno

Embroidery Bar

Charlotte Tilbury

Shop by Look

& use cases STRATEGIC analysis

Efficient

Comp Shopping

Pricing

Analysis Plan Marketing

Calendar

Optimize

Product Flows

Enhance

SEO/SEM Influencer

Strategy

Analyze Trend

Curves Assortment

Architecture

RIGHT PRICE RIGHT TIME RIGHT PRODUCT increase sales maximize margin drive conversion

RIGHT MESSAGE brand voice & discovery

34

Price Optimization x Demand Signals: Senior Product Merchandiser, Luxury Department Store

10% lift in

SALES

35

Marketing Content Optimization x Demand Signals: Social Media Manager, National Department Store

INCREASE

30%

marketing engagement

by

CONSUMER centric retailing

ASSORTMENT PLANNING

PRODUCT PRICING

IN-SEASON MANAGEMENT

PRODUCT DESIGN

MARKETING CALENDAR .

HINDSIGHTING .

save 20 days

per year

10% sales lift

30%

engagement

increase

correct product

investment

capitalize on

trends

improve GM%

& development & costing

& testing

& fast chase & campaign strategy .

& line planning .

= increased profitability

FEB 2017

denim

intelligence report lifestyle trends

2017

beauty report

2016

fashion week

recaps

MARCH 2017

BRANDPUSLSE (CATEGORY TEMPLATES)

Denim – Fast Fashion Brands*

Denim – Specialty Brands**

Denim – Premium Brands***

Denim – Luxury Brands****

Denim –Value & Off Price Retailers*****

TRENDPULSE (CATEGORY TEMPLATES)

Denim and Jeans – Silhouette (women's)

Denim and Jeans – Wash & Embellishment (women's)

Men's - Denim: Wash & Fabric

Men's - Denim: Silhouette

APPENDIX

PLATFORM RESOURCES

MARRYING THE ART & SCIENCE OF

RETAIL

Karen Moon

Co-Founder & CEO

79 Madison Avenue, New York

hello@trendalytics.co

www.trendalytics.co

C O N TA C T U S : H E L L O @ T R E N D A LY I C S . C O