dentener jrc ispra temis 081002007 1 frank dentener, arlene fiore, michael schulz, martin schultz,...

Dentener JRC Ispra TEMIS 081002007 1

Frank Dentener, Arlene Fiore, Michael Schulz, Martin Schultz, Oliver Wild, HTAP

modellers

+ observations


•Convention of UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)

•The Convention addresses major environmental problems of the UNECE region

•The Convention has 51 Parties (European countries + USA + Canada)

•8 protocols identify specific measures to be taken by Parties to cut their emissions of air pollutants (e.g. EMEP Protocol)

•Parties develop policies and strategies to combat the discharge of air pollutants through exchanges of information, consultation, research and monitoring.


•The Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution was established in December 2004. •The Task Force estimates the hemispheric transport of:

• ozone and its precursors• fine particles• acidifying substances• mercury• persistent organic pollutants

•Hemispheric transport may be important for understanding air pollution problems in population centers and impacts on remote areas. •The Task Force reports its findings to the Convention’s Steering Body of EMEP. •HTAP has initiated a comprehensive modeling study to assess the importance of intercontinental transport of air pollution.


www.htap.org

HTAP Interim report: June 2007 (downloadable).

Final report: Middle of 2009.

TF HTAP jointly chaired by US EPA, EC/DG ENV.


Source Receptor Relationships F. Dentener, A. Fiore

NAEU

EASA

•First insight about the importance and uncertainties of hemispheric transport processes for ozone and its precursors, particulate matter•Using ‘best’ emission inventory and meteorological dataset for 2001. •Simulations consist of a reference simulation (2001), and simulations reducing their anthropogenic emissions per region by 20 %.•The four regions of interest for Source Receptor Relationships are Europe, North America, East Asia and South Asia.• >20 models participated in Experiment 1, 5 more in the SR1 only


NAEU

EASA

1. SR1 = base case (methane prescribed 1760 ppb)

4. 4x SR4 = regional NMVOC reduction by 20%

2. SR2 = global methane reduction by 20% (1408 ppb)

3. 4x SR3 = regional NOx reduction by 20%

6. 4x SR6 = regional reduction of all anthropogenic emissions by 20%________________________________________________________ 18 experiments in total (each at least 18 months simulation time)

5. 4x SR5 = regional CO reduction by 20%

www.htap.org


Experiment Set 2: Processes and tracer studies (M. Schultz, O. Wild & D. Shindell)

•To develop a simple set of diagnostics that can be used to understand the model differences that occurred under Experiment 1.

Experiment Set 3: Detailed experiments for Mercury, Ozone, Aerosols, POPs, linkage to campaigns (I. Bey), climate change, regional scale issues.

•There are a number of issues relevant for HTAP, that can be studied with coordinated experiments. These experiments will asses in more details processes relevant for HTAP.

Experiment Set 4: Improved sets of Source Receptor experiments

•Yet to be defined, further assessment and future scenarios

Other experiments


Which resolution do we choose?

6x4 global

3x2 nhe

1x1 for each region


Total NOx emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Global NH SH EU NA SA EA

Tg

N/y

ear

GEOSCHEM

MOZART

STOCHEM

CAMCHEM

INCA

LLNL

EMEP

OSLOCTM2

FRSGCUCI

UMCAM

TM5

MOZECH

Total NMVOC Emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Tg

C /

yea

r

GCv7

MOZART

STOCHEM

CAMCHEM

INCA

LLNL

Oslo

FRSGCUCI

UM CAM

TM5

GEMAQv1p0

ULAQ

STOC-HadAM3-v01

Global NOx and VOC emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Tg/year

EU Tot EU Ant EU bio

European NMVOC em issions

GEOSChem-v07

MOZARTGFDL-v2

STOCHEM-v02

CAMCHEM-3311m13

INCA-vSSz

LLNL-IMPACT-T5a

EMEP-rv26

OsloCTM2

FRSGCUCI-v01

UM-CAM-v01

TM5-JRC-cy2-ipcc-v1

GEMAQ-v1p0

ULAQ-v02

STOC-HadAM3-v01

GISS-PUCCINI-modelE

GISS-PUCCINI-modelA


Seasonal cycles in simulated surface O3 over the HTAP regions

Model range spans ~15-30 ppbv

SR1 results from 20 individual models including 5 „twins“


Seasonality: Monthly mean surface O3 changein EU from 20% reductions of domestic NOx emissions

Large seasonality masked by annual mean statistic


Receptor Region EUROPE

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

NOx VOC CO ALL

EU NA SA EA NA+SA+EA

Receptor Region NORTH AMERICA

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

NOx VOC CO ALL

EU NA SA EA EU+SA+EA

Receptor Region EAST ASIA

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

NOx VOC CO ALL

EU NA SA EA EU+NA+SA

Receptor Region SOUTH ASIA

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

NOx VOC CO ALL

EU NA SA EA EU+NA+EA

Intercontinental Ozone SR relationships

Ozone Response [ppbv] in Receptor regions due to 20 % ant. Emission reduction


Receptor Region EUROPE

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

NOx VOC CO ALL

EU NA SA EA NA+SA+EA

• 20 % perturbation of anthropogenic emissions in specific regions•Combined influence of 3 foreign regions emission reductions similar to

that in the domestic regions•NOx and VOC have the greatest influence- weak non-linearity•Ratio Emission NOx/Emission VOC=0.24±0.11

Intercontinental Ozone SR for Europe

“foreign”“foreign” “foreign”

“foreign”


• NOx the greatest influence• Ratio Emission NOx to Emission VOC=0.15±0.06: half that of Europe•Combined influence of 3 foreign regions emission reductions half to that in the domestic regions

Intercontinental Ozone SR for North America

Receptor Region NORTH AMERICA

0

0.5

1

NOx VOC CO ALL

EU NA SA EA EU+SA+EA

“foreign”

“foreign”“foreign”

“foreign”


Response of NOy deposition in receptor to NO emission perturbation in Europe

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

frac

tio

n

Mean 0.735 0.008 0.018 0.025 0.023

EU NA SA EA 70N-90N

Where do NO emissions from Europe go to?

NOy deposition: Source-Receptor analysis


NOy deposition: Receptor-Source analysis

Receptor region

Source Region EU NA SA EA

EU 0.961 0.009 0.076 0.033

NA 0.028 0.974 0.020 0.013

SA 0.005 0.003 0.881 0.025

EA 0.006 0.014 0.033 0.929

If we would change NO emissions in all 4 regions by 20 %;how would it influence a receptor region?


PM receptor analysis


Conclusions

• Perturbation experiments for 4 world regions:

NOx, CO, VOC, SO2, EC, POM, CO (Hg Pops).• Model spread in perturbation signal typically factor of 2 • Ozone sensitivities ca. 1.5-2 ppbv to 20% ant. emission

reduction in all 4 regions• NA>EU twice as large as all other SR relations• Role of methane is an open issue• Resolution dependency of seasonal differences• Episode analysis• Tracer experiments indicate that BL mixing among models

varies between 40% and 80%• Relatively much attention to interoperability; CF conventions


The role of observations• The first phase of HTAP had very little focus on observations• However, most models participated previously in PHOTOCOMP and AEROCOM

intercomparisons (2004-2006)• Tight timeschedule• It was felt that the models in HTAP would not give very different results

AEROCOM (http://nansen.ipsl.jussieu.fr/AEROCOM/)Considers surface chemistry observations; satellite AOD/Angstrom, Aeronet, EARLINET.AEROCOM workshop 25/26 October, Lille.


Ensemble mean model closely resembles ozone-sonde measurements

UT

: 250

hP

aM

T: 5

00 h

Pa

LT

: 75

0 h

Pa

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Sonde± 1SD

Model± 1SD

90-30S 30S-EQ EQ-30N 30-90N

)Sonde data: Logan (1999) + SHADOZ (Thompson et al, 2003

Stevenson et al., JGR, 2005


Max models+ 1 sd-1 sd-Min models

Monthly average Surface ozonecomparison with measurements

Ellingsen et al, ACPD, 2007

S.W. US

Brazil

N. India; NepalC. EuropeC. Mediterranean

Middle East S. India S.E. Asia

C.E. Africa S. Africa

S.E. US

Great Lakes N. China


55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

CO

(p

pb

v)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

CO

(p

pb

v)

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

CO

(p

pb

v)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

CO

(p

pb

v)

GLOBALNH

TROPICS SH

CO comparison with MOPITT

Shindell et al, JGR, 2006

“Individual models”


Van Noije et al, ACP, 2006

NO2 column: retrievals and models


HNO3 wet deposition: models and measurements

Dentener et al., GBC, 2006

NADPEMEP

IDAF

EAnet

Kulshrestha

Various

Galloway


Next phase of HTAP(2007-2009):

• Climate, regional, tracer experiments=>2009 report.• More linkage to observations; e.g. model experiments are planned focusing on

campaigns: TRACE-P; ICARRT-INTEX. The base years for consideration are 2001/2004.

• Strong need for accepted ‘benchmark’ datasets, to which models and their updates can be routinely compared. QA-QC; fit-for-purpose.

What are the quality criteria for these benchmark datasets?Interoperability of model data will help.

• NILU will select surface observations for establishing benchmark datasets• Satellite data?

dentener jrc ispra temis 081002007 1 frank dentener, arlene fiore, michael schulz, martin schultz,...

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