department of labor: projection%202014%20web

8/14/2019 Department of Labor: Projection%202014%20WEB

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New Jersey Employmentand Population in the21st Century

September 2006

Division of Labor Market andDemographic Research

Jon S. CorzineGovernor

David J. SocolowCommissioner

Projections2014


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2014Projections

New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Page 1

Introduction

P

rojections 2014 represents the latest long-term projections of population, labor

force, and employment both by industry and occupation for New Jersey. These

projections, which are neither predictions nor forecasts, reflect long-term economicand demographic trends. In other words, the projections are an extrapolation of current

and expected longer-term trends into the future. These projections do not take into

account any current or future policy init iatives. Moreover, exogenous shocks, such as

a natural disaster, a war or a terrorist attack, could cause the economy to deviate from

these trends.

These projections were developed by staff in the New Jersey Department of Labor and

Workforce Developments Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research, part of

the Office of Labor Planning and Analysis. Thomas Sheppard, assisted by Jason Timian,

was responsible for the development of the industry and occupational employment pro-

jections. Dr. Sen-Yuan Wu developed the population and labor force projections.

This publication is designed to present highlights of the four projection series (popula-

tion, labor force and employment by both industry and occupation) in a user-friendly

format. These projections are widely used by various public and private organizations in

their economic development efforts, transportation planning and workforce development,

including the identification of labor demand occupations and the design and implemen-tation of job training programs. The occupational employment projections are used ex-

tensively in career guidance.

The industry employment projections in this report are based on the North American

Industry Classification System (NAICS) for classifying employment by industry. NAICS

replaces the old manufacturing-oriented Standard Industrial Classification and is repre-

sentative of the service-based, technology-driven information economy in which we live.

More detailed projections of population, labor force and employment by both industry

and occupation are available on the Office of Labor Planning and Analysis Web site http:/

/www.nj.gov/labor/lra. For more information, contact Thomas Sheppard (industry and

occupational employment projections) or Dr. Sen-Yuan Wu (population and labor force

projections) at the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Mr.

Sheppard may be reached at 609-984-7616 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Dr.

Wu may be reached at 609-292-0077 or by e-mail at [email protected].


3/25New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce DevelopmentPage 2

2014ProjectionsNew Jersey Will Have Slower-Than-National Employment Growth

Overall employment growth in the nat ion and the state is expected to lag itslong-term trends.

Employment Growth US and NJ 1964 - 2014

Over the 2004-2014 period, New Jersey is projected to add

404,100 jobs while growing at an annual rate of 1.0 percent. Nationalgrowth is projected to average 1.3 percent annually.

Projected New Jersey growth is expected to be slower thanover the previous ten-year period, 1994-2004, when growth averaged 1.2

percent annually and 446,300 new jobs were created. This period benefitedfrom the extremely fast employment growth of the late 1990s.

The most new jobs occured over the 1964-1974period, 614,300, and the fastest annual growth, 2.5 percent. Growth

in this period was boosted by the entrance of the post-WorldWar II baby boom generation into the labor market.

1964-1974 1974-1984 1984-1994 1994-2004 2004-20140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

AnnualGrowth(%)

New Jersey United States


4/25New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Page 3

2014ProjectionsWhat Industries Will Produce the Most New Jobs?

Service-providing industries will continue to account for employment growth in NewJersey through 2014.

Industry Employment Growth NJ: 2004- 2014

Three industry sectors will account for nearly 70 percent of2004-2014 employment growth.

By 2014, almost 90 percent of New Jersey employment will bein service-providing industries, up from 87.4 percent in 2004

and 83.7 percent in 1994.

The manufacturing sector is projected to lose 59,900 jobs far fewer than the 117,800 jobs lost over the 1994-2004 period

but still almost 17.7 percent of 2004 totalmanufacturing employment.

2004-20014 Percentage of Industry Category Employment Growth Total Growth

Health and Social Assistance 113,800 28.2

Professional and Business Services 107,800 26.7Leisure and Hospitality 54,300 13.4

Total for Three Industries 275,900 68.3



2014ProjectionsEmployment Growth by Occupation

Employment Change by Occupational Category 2004 - 2014

Sixty-six percent of new jobs will be in either profes-sional and related or services occupations. Prominent occupations in the

professional and related category include accountants, engineers, registerednurses, elementary and secondary school teachers. Service occupations in-

clude home health aides, medical assistants, fast food cooks, foodpreparation workers and security guards.

Office and administrative support occupations, the secondlargest single group in 2004, is projected to have very slow growth 14,100

new jobs and total growth of only 1.7 percent. Office automation and new and

changing technologies will continue to limit growth in this largebut slow growing category.

Production occupations is the only occupational group which isprojected to lose jobs. Continued employment losses in the manufacturing

sector are the reason for the expected employment decline.

-50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Production Occupations (-24,550)

Farming, Fishing and Forestry (1,350)

Installation, Maintenance and Repair (13,350)

Construction and Extraction (18,050)

Transportation and Material Moving (28,200)

Office and Administrative Support (14,100)

Sales and Related (37,900)

Management, Business, Financial (49,900)

Services (139,300)

Professional & Related (133,400)



2014ProjectionsAnnual Projected Job Openings by Major Occupational Group

Annual Average Job Openings by Occupational Category: 2004 - 2014

Approximately 149,500 job openings are expected in New Jersey

each year. Of these, about 48,000 will be due to growth and just over 101,000will be due to the need to replace workers (replacement demand) who have

retired or left the occupation for any reason.

Service and professional and related occupations, with projected

annual job openings of 36,680 and 29,980, respectively, are expected to leadthe state in annual job openings.

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Production Occupations (5,690)

Installation, Maintenance and Repair (4,890)

Construction and Extraction (5,390)

Office and Administrative Support (23,610)

Management, Business, Financial (12,930)

Services (36,680)

Professional & Related (29,980)

Farming, Fishing and Forestry (250)

Sales and Related (19,280)

Transportation and Material Moving (10,870)



2014Projections

Percent of Job Openings: Growth vs ReplacementSelected Major Occupational Groups : 2004 - 2014

Two thirds of annual job openings result from replacement

demand the need to fill jobs created by retirements, people changing jobs,workers returning to school, etc. Only one third result from

employment growth.

The share of job openings attributable to growth andreplacement differs significantly across the major occupational groups.

In the fast-growing professional and related category, employment growth isexpected to account for almost 45 percent of all openings. In the slow-growing

office and administrative support group, employment growth will

account for just over 20 percent of job openings.

Generally, faster growing major occupational groups andthose containing higher salary and wage jobs will have larger growth compo-

nents and smaller replacement needs. Occupational groups comprised of slowergrowth, lower pay and lower skill occupations will have higher turnover

and a larger replacement demand.

Total

Professional and Related

Management

Services

Sales and Related

Office and Admin. Support

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Percent

GrowthReplacement

Annual Projected Job Openingsby Growth and Replacement Demand



2014ProjectionsAnnual Projected Job Openings by Educational Attainment

Projected Job Openings by Education andTraining Requirements: 2004 - 2014

Occupations having the highest training and educationrequirements an Associates degree or higher are projected to account

for one-quarter of annual job openings. These occupations will account for onethird percent of job openings due to growth but only one-fifth of thosedue to replacement demand.

Occupations having moderate training and education requirementswill account for 18.2 percent of job openings due to growth and an almost

identical share of 17.5 percent of replacement openings.

Occupations having the lowest training and education require-ments short-term on-the -job training will account for 58 percent of totaljob openings and 62.5 percent of openings due to replacement demand, but

only 48 percent of openings due to growth.

Annual Percent of Education/ Training Requirements Average Openings Total

High

(Associates's degree or higher) 36,610 24.5

Moderate

(Long-term on-the-job training, work experience

or post-secondary vocational training) 26,470 17.7

Low

(Short-term on-the-job training) 86,510 57.9



2014ProjectionsHow Many People?

New Jerseys population is projected to near 9,188,200 in2014, growing by 5.8 percent from 2004 to 2014. This is somewhat slower

than the states growth rate of the 1990s and the projected national growth rate.New Jersey has lagged the nation as a whole in the rate of population growth

since the 1970s, although the states growth rate has edged closerto the US rate since the 1990s.

The other races population group, which is comprisedmostly of Asians, but also includes American Indians, Alaska Natives,

Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders, is projected to grow substantially faster(38.0%) than the states population as a whole (5.8%) and faster than both the white

(2.0%) and black or African American population (6.7%). This is a continuation ofthe 1980s and 1990s trend. Other races, however, will still represent a

relatively small share of the states total population (9.6%) bythe year 2014.

The baby boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964)will be 50-68 years of age in 2014 and is projected to represent 23.1 percent of New

Jerseys entire population. Early boomers will begin to retire from the laborforce during the ten-year projection period.

The baby bust cohort (those born between 1965 and 1976) willbe 38-49 years old in 2014. They are projected to account for about one-

sixth of the states population.

Persons of Hispanic (or Latino) origin (any race) are projectedto increase by 30 percent from 2004 to 2014, to reach a total of more than 1.67

million. As a result, by 2014 Hispanics are projected to outnumber African Americans in

New Jersey by 332,900. This represents a dramatic increase from 2004 whenHispanics outnumbered African Americans by only 34,500.



2014Projections

New Jersey Populat ion by Age: 2004 and 2014

How Many People?

The projected 2004-2014 increase in persons 65 years and over is15.7 percent. The acceleration of the elderly growth rate from the 1990s (8.5%)

is due mainly to the aging of the baby boomers.

New Jerseys sex ratio (number of males per 100 females) willincrease from 94.9 in 2004 to 95.2 in 2014 as the male population is projected to

grow somewhat faster than its female counterpart.

The children of the baby boom generation, or theso-called baby boom echo (those born between 1977 and 1994) will be

as large as their parents cohort in New Jersey and are projected to account for23.2 percent of the states total population in 2014. Therefore, new entrants tothe labor force, college and the military are projected to increase

from 2004 to 2014.

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-8485+

2004 2014

800,000 6 00 ,0 00 4 00 ,0 00 800,000600,000400,000200,000 200,0000



2014ProjectionsWho Will be Available for the Jobs?

Labor Force Growth by US and New Jersey: 1970 2014

Older workers (55 years old and over) are projected to be thefastest growing labor group, increasing by 35.0% from 2004 to 2014, due to

the maturing of baby boomers.

Substantial labor force growth in the 1970s and1980s was due largely to the baby boomers coming of working age.

The new entrants to the labor force during the 1990s were derived mainly fromthe baby bust cohort leading to the slower labor force growth of the 1990s. As

the baby boom echo generation starts to enter the states work force be-tween 2004 and 2014, the growth of the labor force will be faster

than the population growth again.

New Jerseys labor force is projected to total 4,687,200 in 2014.This is about 6.8 percent greater than the number of persons in the labor force

in 2004, and represents a faster growth than the 1990s but slower thanduring the 1970s and 1980s.

1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2004 2004-20140.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Annualized

RateofGrowth(%)

New Jersey United States



2014Projections

Labor Force Growth by Race, Sex and Hispanic Origin: 2004 2014

Two-thirds of labor force growth will come from persons of Hispanic origin.

Male

Female 43.8%56.2%

By Sex

White

Black

Other Races

2 or more races

5.9%

35.5%

17.3%

41.3%

By Race

Hispanic

Non-Hispanic

By Hispanic Origin

66.2%

33.8%

Women have dominated the states labor force growth during the

1980s and 1990s. They will still account for about 56 percent of New Jerseyslabor force growth from 2004-2014.

Nonwhites and Hispanics are projected to make up themajority of the states labor force growth from 2004 to 2014 (accounting

for 65% and 66% of the growth , respectively), while the number of white, non-Hispanics in the states labor force is projected to decline. Consequently, the non-Hispanic whites share of the states labor force will diminish from 65.7

percent 2004 to 59.9 percent in 2014.

Who Will be Available for the Jobs?



2014Projections



2014Projections

Appendix:Projections by the Numbers



2014Projections

Employment by Major Industry Category, United States: 2004 - 2014

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research.

Notes: The industry employment estimates, projections and projected employment change, which are based on nonfarm payroll employment will notmatch the

occupational data which also include self-employed and unpaid family workers. Totals may not add due to rounding. Employment data are rounded to

nearest hundred. Percentages and percent changes are based on un rounded data.

Employment by Major Industry Category, New Jersey: 2004 - 2014

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding. Employment data are rounded to nearest thousand. Percentages and percent changes are based on unrounded data.

Table 1

Table 2

Industry Title Number Percent Number Percent Number Annual Tot al

Tot al Nonfarm Employment 132,192 100. 0 150,877 100.0 18,685 1.3 14.1

Goods-Producing 21,817 16.5 21,787 14.4 -30 0.0 -0.1

Natural Resources and Mining 523 0.4 477 0.3 -46 -0.9 -8.8

Construction 6,965 5.3 7,757 5.1 792 1.1 11.4

Manufacturing 14,330 10.8 13,553 9.0 -777 -0.6 -5.4

Service-Providing 110,374 83.5 129,090 85.6 18,715 1.6 17.0

Trade 20,689 15.7 22,814 15.1 2,125 1.0 10.3

Wholesale Trade 5,655 4.3 6,131 4.1 476 0.8 8.4

Retail Trade 15,035 11.4 16,683 11.1 1,649 1.0 11.0

Utilities 570 0.4 563 0.4 -8 -0.1 -1.3

Transportation and Warehousing 4,250 3.2 4,756 3.2 506 1.1 11.9Information 3,138 2.4 3,502 2.3 364 1.1 11.6

Financial Activit ies 8,052 6.1 8,901 5.9 849 1.0 10.5

Professional and Business Services 16,414 12.4 20,980 13.9 4,566 2.5 27.8

Educational Services 2,766 2.1 3,665 2.4 898 2.9 32.5

Health Care and Social Assistance 14,187 10.7 18,482 12.2 4,295 2.7 30.3

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1,833 1.4 2,293 1.5 460 2.3 25.1

Accomodation and Food Services 10,646 8.1 12,401 8.2 1,755 1.5 16.5

Other Services 6,210 4.7 6,943 4.6 734 1.1 11.8

Government 21,618 16.4 23,790 15.8 2,172 1.0 10.0

PercentChange: 2004-2014

2 0 04 2 0 1 4 (000s)

Industry Title Number Percent Number Percent Number Annual Tot a l

Tot al Nonf arm Employment 3, 999, 100 100. 0 4,403,200 100. 0 404,100 1.0 10.1

Goods-Producing 505,700 12.6 463,400 10.5 -42,300 -0.9 -8.4Natural Resources and Mining 1,600 0.0 1,500 0.0 -100 -0.3 -3.3

Construction 165,900 4.1 183,600 4.2 17,700 1.0 10.6

Manufacturing 338,200 8.5 278,300 6.3 -59,900 -1.9 -17.7

Service-Providing 3,493,400 87.4 3,939,800 89.5 446,400 1.2 12.8

Trade 699,000 17.5 770,900 17.5 71,900 1.0 10.3

Wholesale Trade 231,900 5.8 260,900 5.9 29,000 1.2 12.5

Retail Trade 467,100 11.7 510,000 11.6 42,900 0.9 9.2

Utilit ies 14,700 0.4 14,000 0.3 -700 -0.5 -4.7

Transportation and Warehousing 161,000 4.0 174,000 4.0 13,000 0.8 8.1

Information 98,000 2.5 91,600 2.1 -6,400 -0.7 -6.5

Financial Activities 276,900 6.9 302,100 6.9 25,200 0.9 9.1

Professional and Business Services 584,500 14.6 692,400 15.7 107,900 1.7 18.5

Educational Services 85,200 2.1 93,900 2.1 8,700 1.0 10.2Health Care and Social Assistance 461,200 11.5 575,000 13.1 113,800 2.2 24.7

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 49,100 1.2 61,500 1.4 12,400 2.3 25.3

Accomodation and Food Services 276,400 6.9 318,300 7.2 41,900 1.4 15.1

Other Services 154,100 3.9 185,100 4.2 31,000 1.9 20.1

Government 633,400 15.8 661,100 15.0 27,700 0.4 4.4

Percent

Change: 2004-2014

2004 2 014


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2014

Page 15

Projections


Notes: *Occupational data include estimates of self-employed and unpaid family workers and are not directly comparable to the industry employment total.

Totals may not add due to rounding. Employment data are rounded to the nearest fifty. Percentages are based on unrounded data.

Annual Average Job Openings by Occupational Category,New Jersey: 2004 -2014


Notes: *Occupational data include estimates of self-employed and unpaid family workers and are not directly comparable to the industry employment total.

Totals may n ot add du e to rounding. Employment data are rounded to the nearest fift y, job openings are rounded to t he nearest ten. Percentages are

based on unrounded data.

Employment by Major Occupational Category, New Jersey: 2004 - 2014Table 3

Table 4

2 0 0 4 2 0 1 4 Occupational Category Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Total All Occupations * 4,321,650 100.0 4,732,600 100.0 411,000 9.5Management , Business and Financial Occupat ions 430,600 10.0 480,500 10.1 49,900 11.6

Professional and Related Occupations 849,450 19.7 982,850 20.7 133,400 15.7

Service Occupations 814,100 18.8 953,450 20.1 139,300 17.1

Sales and Related Occupations 479,700 11.1 517,550 10.9 37,900 7.9

Office and Administrative Support Occupations 835,500 19.3 849,650 18.0 14,100 1.7

Farming, Fishing and Forestry Occupations 4,350 0.1 5,700 0.1 1,350 30.7

Construction and Extract ion Occupations 180,100 4.1 198,100 4.2 18,050 10.0

Installation, Maint enance and Repair Occupations 155,450 3.6 168,750 3.6 13,350 8.6

Production Occupations 231,950 5.4 207,400 4.4 -24,550 -10.6

Transport ation and Material Moving Occupations 340,450 7.8 368,700 7.8 28,200 8.3

Change: 2004-2014

Occupational Category Number Percent

Total All Occupations * 149,540 100.0

Management, Business and Financial Occupations 12,930 8.6

Professional and Related Occupations 29,980 20.0

Service Occupations 36,680 24.5

Sales and Related Occupations 19,280 12.9

Office and Administrative Support Occupations 23,610 15.8Farming, Fishing and Forestry Occupations 250 0.2

Construction and Extraction Occupations 5,390 3.6

Installation, Maintenance and Repair Occupations 4,890 3.3

Production Occupations 5,690 3.8

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 10,870 7.3

Annual Average Job Openings2004-2014



2014ProjectionsProjections for the 25 High Skill Requirement OccupationsWith the Most Average Annual Job Openings : 2004 - 2014


Notes: Occupations are ranked based on total job openings. High skill requirement is defined as an Associates degree or higher.

Table 5

Percent Percent Total Job Mean

Occupat ion Number of Total Number of Total Number Percent Openings Wage

Total High Requirements 1,083,700 25.1 1,242,650 26.2 158,950 14.7 36,600

Registered Nurses 80,300 1.9 100,850 2.1 20,550 25.6 3,740 $63,070

Elementary School Teachers, ExceptSpecial Education 61,650 1.4 68,750 1.5 7,100 11.6 2,070 $54,505

General and Operations Managers 52,900 1.2 59,500 1.3 6,650 12.5 1,660 $132,620

Business Operat ions Specialist s, All Ot her 38,850 0.9 46,850 1.0 8,050 20.7 1,470 $59,905

Secondary School Teachers, ExceptSpecial and Vocational Education 34,800 0.8 37,750 0.8 2,950 8.5 1,270 $57,680

Accountants and Auditors 36,050 0.8 41,500 0.9 5,450 15.1 1,230 $67,160

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Educat ion 15,400 0.4 21,900 0.5 6,500 42.1 830 $30,970

Comput er Software Engineers, Applicat ions 16,750 0.4 21,700 0.5 4,950 29.5 660 $85,975

Middle School Teachers, ExceptSpecial and Vocational Education 23,000 0.5 24,350 0.5 1,350 5.9 640 $55,425

Computer Programmers 27,100 0.6 24,400 0.5 -2,700 -10.0 640 $79,885

Financial Managers 22,750 0.5 25,250 0.5 2,500 11.0 580 $117,385

Lawyers 26,500 0.6 28,800 0.6 2,250 8.6 570 $112,535

Computer Systems Analysts 18,050 0.4 21,500 0.5 3,450 19.2 550 $77,850

Special Education Teachers, Preschool,Kindergarten, and Elementary School 11,050 0.3 13,450 0.3 2,400 21.7 500 $54,625

Management Analysts 20,950 0.5 22,850 0.5 1,900 9.0 480 $84,320

Computer Support Specialists 18,250 0.4 20,700 0.4 2,450 13.3 470 $47,105

Rehabilitat ion Counselors 7,800 0.2 10,100 0.2 2,350 29.9 410 $29,415

Securities, Commodities, and FinancialServices Sales Agents 16,300 0.4 18,450 0.4 2,200 13.4 400 $90,665

Computer and Information,Systems Managers 11,350 0.3 13,150 0.3 1,800 15.7 380 $124,835

Computer Software Engineers,Systems Software 10,550 0.2 13,150 0.3 2,600 24.6 360 $96,780

Sales Managers 10,000 0.2 11,650 0.3 1,650 16.3 350 $115,535

Pharmacists 7,050 0.2 8,950 0.2 1,850 26.4 320 $87,075

Employment, Recruitment, andPlacement Specialists 8,500 0.2 10,400 0.2 1,900 22.4 320 $55,700

Network Systems and DataCommunications Analysts 5,600 0.1 8,100 0.2 2,500 44.4 310 $73,665

Construction Managers 11,750 0.3 12,700 0.3 1,000 8.3 310 $110,235

High, Other 490,500 11.4 555,900 11.7 65,400 13.3 16,070

2 0 0 4 2 0 1 4 Change: 2004-2014



2014

Page 17

Projections

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, D ivision of Labor Market and Demographic Research.

Notes: Occupations are ranked based on total job openings. Moderate skill requirement is defined as long-term on-the-job training, work experience or post

secondary/vocational training.

Projections for the 25 Moderate Skill Requirement OccupationsWith the Most Average Annual Job Openings : 2004 - 2014

Table 6



Total Moderate Requirements 854,000 19.8 934,500 19.8 80,500 9.4 26,470

Supervisors/Managers of Officeand Administrative Support Workers 51,400 1.2 53,900 1.1 2,500 4.9 1,350 $50,740

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and At tendants 40,750 0.9 47,950 1.0 7,200 17.7 1,250 $24,430

Medical Secretaries 36,350 0.8 41,700 0.9 5,350 14.7 1,230 $30,020

Hai rdressers, Hairst yli st s, and Cosmet ologi st s 28,750 0.7 35,150 0.7 6,350 22.1 1,190 $25,505

Supervisors/ Managers of Ret ail Sales Workers 52,700 1.2 54,400 1.2 1,650 3.2 1,110 $44,805

Aut omot ive Service Technicians and Mechanics 23,350 0.5 26,300 0.6 2,950 12.7 920 $37,535

Carpenters 33,300 0.8 36,900 0.8 3,600 10.7 900 $49,570

Licensed Practical andLicensed Vocat ional Nurses 18,950 0.4 22,700 0.5 3,800 20.0 790 $45,965

Managers, All Other 34,800 0.8 35,700 0.8 900 2.5 770 $96,110

Supervisors/Managers of FoodPreparat ion and Serving Workers 16,900 0.4 20,100 0.4 3,250 19.1 720 $34,030

Cooks, Restaurant 13,600 0.3 16,100 0.3 2,500 18.2 670 $23,665

Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 22,450 0.5 23,250 0.5 800 3.5 660 $65,745

Electricians 20,150 0.5 22,700 0.5 2,500 12.5 650 $59,030

Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Inst ructors 12,300 0.3 15,200 0.3 2,950 23.9 580 $37,445

Plumbers, Pipefit ters, and Steamfitters 13,250 0.3 15,400 0.3 2,150 16.3 520 $56,390

Supervisors/Managers of ConstructionTrades and Extract ion Workers 17,900 0.4 19,500 0.4 1,650 9.2 470 $71,260

Supervisors/Managers of Mechanics,Installers, and Repairers 12,650 0.3 13,850 0.3 1,200 9.7 440 $61,835

Real Estate Sales Agents 11,450 0.3 13,200 0.3 1,750 15.1 400 $51,145

Supervisors/Managers of Productionand Operat ing Workers 18,900 0.4 17,600 0.4 -1,250 -6.7 400 $53,995

Legal Secretaries 12,950 0.3 14,200 0.3 1,250 9.8 380 $41,890

Supervisors/Managers of Non-RetailSales Workers 18,500 0.4 18,550 0.4 50 0.3 360 $91,995

Supervisors/Managers of Personal

Service Workers 8,300 0.2 9,600 0.2 1,300 15.5 340 $42,110

Supervisors/Managers of Housekeepingand Janitorial Workers 9,300 0.2 10,400 0.2 1,150 12.2 330 $39,560

Self-Enrichment Educat ion Teachers 10,100 0.2 12,050 0.3 1,950 19.3 320 $41,945

Heating, Air Conditioning, and RefrigerationMechanics and Installers 9,250 0.2 11,000 0.2 1,750 18.7 300 $45,770

Moderate, Other 305,750 7.1 327,150 7.0 21,400 7.0 9,440

2 0 0 4 2 0 1 4 Change: 2004-2014



2014ProjectionsProjections for the 25 Low Skill Requirement OccupationsWith the Most Average Annual Job Openings : 2004 - 2014


Notes: Occupations are ranked based on total job openings. Low skill requirement is defined as moderate or short-term on-the-job training.

Table 7


Occupation Number of Total Number of Total Number Percent Openings Wage

Total Low Requirements 2,383,900 55.0 2,555,450 53.8 171,550 7.2 86,510

Retail Salespersons 131,550 3.0 147,150 3.1 15,550 11.8 6,340 $25,340

Cashiers 105,150 2.4 110,800 2.3 5,700 5.4 5,680 $18,025

Combined Food Preparation and ServingServing Workers, Including Fast Food 63,900 1.5 75,550 1.6 11,650 18.3 3,940 $16,975

Waiters and Waitresses 52,000 1.2 62,250 1.3 10,250 19.7 3,700 $18,345

Laborers and Freight, Stock, andMaterial Movers, Hand 82,950 1.9 87,950 1.9 5,000 6.1 3,210 $23,150

Janitors and Cleaners, ExceptMaids and Housekeeping Cleaners 88,100 2.0 101,600 2.2 13,500 15.3 3,020 $23,210

Office Clerks, General 105,200 2.4 109,800 2.3 4,650 4.4 2,790 $26,750

Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 59,950 1.4 55,200 1.2 -4,750 -7.9 2,220 $23,230

Child Care Workers 42,000 1.0 51,900 1.1 9,850 23.5 2,130 $18,960

Customer Service Representatives 58,200 1.4 68,750 1.5 10,550 18.1 1,920 $32,660

Sales Representatives, Wholesale andManufacturi ng, Except Tech. and Sci. Products 43,350 1.0 49,350 1.0 6,000 13.8 1,740 $66,560

Bookkeeping, Account ing, and Audi ti ng Clerks 74,600 1.7 77,000 1.6 2,400 3.2 1,640 $35,355

Secretaries, Except Legal,Medical, and Executive 83,850 1.9 79,200 1.7 -4,650 -5.6 1,610 $34,245

Teacher Assistants 41,250 1.0 48,100 1.0 6,850 16.6 1,480 $21,335

Food Preparation Workers 24,300 0.6 30,100 0.6 5,800 23.9 1,440 $18,545

Receptionist s and Information Clerks 32,050 0.7 37,800 0.8 5,750 17.9 1,360 $24,390

Home Health Aides 21,150 0.5 31,750 0.7 10,600 50.2 1,340 $21,375

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tract or- Trailer 47,450 1.1 52,950 1.1 5,500 11.6 1,320 $39,185

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 34,400 0.8 39,700 0.8 5,300 15.4 1,280 $25,445

Packers and Packagers, Hand 43,550 1.0 47,500 1.0 3,950 9.1 1,210 $18,410

Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, FoodConcession, and Coffee Shop 14,250 0.3 16,700 0.4 2,450 17.3 1,180 $15,950

Tellers 19,350 0.5 21,300 0.5 1,950 10.2 1,150 $21,720

Security Guards 41,100 1.0 41,750 0.9 650 1.6 960 $23,790

Maint enance and Repair Workers, General 32,200 0.7 35,100 0.7 2,950 9.1 910 $35,765

Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 36,650 0.9 42,050 0.9 5,400 14.8 880 $30,200

Low, Other 1,005,450 23.1 1,034,100 21.7 28,650 2.8 32,060

2 004 2 014 Change: 2004-2014



2014

Page 19

Projections

Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, D ivision of Labor Market and Demographic Research.

Notes: Occupations are ranked first on total job openings and then by mean wage.

Projections for the 25 High Wage Occupations (over $50,000)With the Most Average Annual Job Openings : 2004 - 2014

Table 8


Occupation Number of Total Number of Total Number Percent Openings Wage

Total High (over $50,000) 1,380,050 32.1 1,542,350 32.8 162,250 11.8 44,640

General and Operations Managers 52,900 1.2 59,500 1.3 6,650 12.5 1,660 $132,620

Financial Managers 22,750 0.5 25,250 0.5 2,500 11.0 580 $117,385

Lawyers 26,500 0.6 28,800 0.6 2,250 8.6 570 $112,533

Managers, All Other 34,800 0.8 35,700 0.8 900 2.5 770 $96,109

Securities, Commodities, and Financialervices ales gents 1 , .4 1 ,4 .4 , 1 .4 4 ,

Comput er Software Engineers, Applications 16,750 0.4 21,700 0.5 4,950 29.5 660 $85,974

Management Analysts 20,950 0.5 22,850 0.5 1,900 9.0 480 $84,321

Computer Programmers 27,100 0.6 24,400 0.5 -2,700 -10.0 640 $79,884

Sales Representatives, Wholesale andManufacturing, Tech. and Sci. Products 14,400 0.3 15,650 0.3 1,250 8.7 500 $78,370

Computer Systems Analysts 18,050 0.4 21,500 0.5 3,450 19.2 550 $77,851

Supervisors/Managers of ConstructionTrades and Extract ion Workers 17,900 0.4 19,500 0.4 1,650 9.2 470 $71,261

Accountants and Auditors 36,050 0.8 41,500 0.9 5,450 15.1 1,230 $67,161

Sales Representatives, Wholesale andManufact uring, Except Tech.and Sci. Product s 43,350 1.0 49,350 1.0 6,000 13.8 1,740 $66,562

Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 22,450 0.5 23,250 0.5 800 3.5 660 $65,743

Registered Nurses 80,300 1.9 100,850 2.1 20,550 25.6 3,740 $63,071

Supervisors/Managers of Mechanics,Installers, and Repairers 12,650 0.3 13,850 0.3 1,200 9.7 440 $61,837

Business Operat ions Specialist s, All Ot her 38,850 0.9 46,850 1.0 8,050 20.7 1,470 $59,904

Electricians 20,150 0.5 22,700 0.5 2,500 12.5 650 $59,032

Secondary School Teachers, ExceptSpecial and Vocational Education 34,800 0.8 37,750 0.8 2,950 8.5 1,270 $57,680

Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 13,250 0.3 15,400 0.3 2,150 16.3 520 $56,391

Middle School Teachers, ExceptSpecial and Vocational Education 23,000 0.5 24,350 0.5 1,350 5.9 640 $55,424

Special Education Teachers, Preschool,Kindergarten, and Elementary School 11,050 0.3 13,450 0.3 2,400 21.7 500 $54,623

Elementary School Teachers, ExceptSpecial Education 61,650 1.4 68,750 1.5 7,100 11.6 2,070 $54,504

Real Estate Sales Agents 11,450 0.3 13,200 0.3 1,750 15.1 400 $51,143

Supervisors/Managers of Office andAdministrative Support Workers 51,400 1.2 53,900 1.1 2,500 4.9 1,350 $50,742

High, Other 651,350 15.1 723,900 15.3 72,550 11.1 20,690

2 0 0 4 2 0 1 4 Change: 2004-2014



2014ProjectionsProjections for the 25 Moderate Wage Occupations ($25,000 - $50,000)

With the Most Average Annual Job Openings : 2004 - 2014



Table 9



Tot al Moderat e ($25, 000 t o $50, 000) 1,822,850 42.4 1,951,550 41.4 128,750 7.1 56,490

Carpenters 33,300 0.8 36,900 0.8 3,600 10.7 900 $49,568

Sales and Related Workers, All Other 16,500 0.4 18,800 0.4 2,300 13.9 540 $48,087

Executive Secretaries andAdministrative Assistants 31,150 0.7 33,750 0.7 2,600 8.4 860 $47,136

Licensed Practical andLicensed Vocational Nurses 18,950 0.4 22,700 0.5 3,800 20.0 790 $45,963

Supervisors/ Managers of Ret ail Sales Workers 52,700 1.2 54,400 1.1 1,650 3.2 1,110 $ 44,806

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 47,450 1.1 52,950 1.1 5,500 11.6 1,320 $39,184

Aut omot ive Service Technicians and Mechanics 23,350 0.5 26,300 0.6 2,950 12.7 920 $37,536

Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 12,300 0.3 15,200 0.3 2,950 23.9 580 $37,447

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 32,200 0.7 35,100 0.7 2,950 9.1 910 $35,763

Bookkeeping, Account ing, and Audit ing Clerks 74,600 1.7 77,000 1.6 2,400 3.2 1,640 $35,356

Secretaries, Except Legal,Medical, and Executive 83,850 1.9 79,200 1.7 -4,650 -5.6 1,610 $34,243

Protective Service Workers, All Other 6,900 0.2 7,500 0.2 600 8.4 540 $34,088

Supervisors/Managers of FoodPreparation and Serving Workers 16,900 0.4 20,100 0.4 3,250 19.1 720 $34,031

Dental Assistants 10,500 0.2 13,900 0.3 3,350 32.0 630 $33,491

Customer Service Representatives 58,200 1.3 68,750 1.5 10,550 18.1 1,920 $32,660

Preschool Teachers, Except Speci al Educat ion 15,400 0.4 21,900 0.5 6,500 42.1 830 $30,969

Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 36,650 0.8 42,050 0.9 5,400 14.8 880 $30,201

Medical Secretaries 36,350 0.8 41,700 0.9 5,350 14.7 1,230 $30,019

Medical Assistants 11,450 0.3 16,700 0.4 5,250 46.0 740 $29,305

Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks 26,100 0.6 26,050 0.6 -50 -0.1 540 $28,830

Office Clerks, General 105,200 2.4 109,800 2.3 4,650 4.4 2,790 $26,750

Bus Drivers, School 20,900 0.5 23,700 0.5 2,750 13.2 730 $25,944

Hai rdressers, Hairst yli st s, and Cosmet ol ogi st s 28,750 0.7 35,150 0.7 6,350 22.1 1,190 $25,505

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 34,400 0.8 39,700 0.8 5,300 15.4 1,280 $25,446

Retail Salespersons 131,550 3.0 147,150 3.1 15,550 11.8 6,340 $25,341

Moderate, Other 857,200 19.8 885,100 18.7 27,900 3.3 24,950

2 0 0 4 2 0 1 4 Change: 2004-2014



2014

Page 21

Projections

Projections for the 25 Low Wage Occupations (under $25,000)With the Most Average Annual Job Openings : 2004 - 2014



Table 10



Total Low (under $25,000) 1,086,700 25.4 1,203,400 25.7 116,700 10.7 47,760

Cashiers 105,150 2.4 110,800 2.3 5,700 5.4 5,680 $18,026

Combined Food Preparation andServing Workers, Including Fast Food 63,900 1.5 75,550 1.6 11,650 18.3 3,940 $16,975

Waiters and Waitresses 52,000 1.2 62,250 1.3 10,250 19.7 3,700 $18,347

Laborers and Freight, Stock, andMaterial Movers, Hand 82,950 1.9 87,950 1.9 5,000 6.1 3,210 $23,148

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and

Housekeeping Cleaners 88,100 2.0 101,600 2.1 13,500 15.3 3,020 $23,210Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 59,950 1.4 55,200 1.2 -4,750 -7.9 2,220 $23,232

Child Care Workers 42,000 1.0 51,900 1.1 9,850 23.5 2,130 $18,959

Teacher Assistants 41,250 1.0 48,100 1.0 6,850 16.6 1,480 $21,336

Food Preparation Workers 24,300 0.6 30,100 0.6 5,800 23.9 1,440 $18,547

Receptionists and Information Clerks 32,050 0.7 37,800 0.8 5,750 17.9 1,360 $24,390

Home Health Aides 21,150 0.5 31,750 0.7 10,600 50.2 1,340 $21,376

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 40,750 0.9 47,950 1.0 7,200 17.7 1,250 $24,428

Packers and Packagers, Hand 43,550 1.0 47,500 1.0 3,950 9.1 1,210 $18,412

Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, FoodConcession, and Coffee Shop 14,250 0.3 16,700 0.4 2,450 17.3 1,180 $15,949

Tellers 19,350 0.4 21,300 0.5 1,950 10.2 1,150 $21,720

Security Guards 41,100 1.0 41,750 0.9 650 1.6 960 $23,789

Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 24,500 0.6 27,650 0.6 3,150 12.9 830 $19,231

Bartenders 14,650 0.3 16,500 0.3 1,850 12.5 760 $20,571

Counter and Rental Clerks 13,300 0.3 15,450 0.3 2,150 16.0 720 $24,747

Cooks, Restaurant 13,600 0.3 16,100 0.3 2,500 18.2 670 $23,663

Cooks, Fast Food 12,900 0.3 14,900 0.3 2,000 15.4 600 $18,194

Dishwashers 10,400 0.2 12,150 0.3 1,800 17.2 530 $16,092

Recreation Workers 11,850 0.3 13,600 0.3 1,750 14.6 450 $23,013

Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants andBartender Helpers 9,500 0.2 10,750 0.2 1,250 13.4 440 $15,818

Service Stat ion Attendants 9,750 0.2 9,000 0.2 -700 -7.4 440 $16,279

Low, Other 194,550 4.5 199,100 4.2 4,550 2.3 7,050

2 0 0 4 2 0 1 4 Change: 2004-2014


23/25



2014

Page 23

Projections

Projections of Civilian Labor Force by Age, Race, Sex andHispanic Origin, New Jersey: 2004 - 2014

Projections of Civilian Labor Force by Age, Race, Sex andHispanic Origin, United States: 2004 - 2014

(in thousands)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Notes: The "Others" category include American Indian, Alaska Native, H awaiian, O ther Pacific Islander and M ultiracial. Hispanic origin is not a race.

Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: US Bureau of the Census and N ew Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

Notes: The "Other Races" include Asian, Am erican Indian, Alaska Native, Hawaiian, O ther Pacific Islander. "Mu ltiracial" refers to persons of two or

more races. Hispan ic origin is not a race. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Table 13

Table 14

2004 2014 Change: 2004-2014

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Total Labor Force 4,388,000 100.0 4,687,200 100.0 299,200 6.8

16-24 584,200 13.3 649,100 13.8 64,900 11.125-44 1,997,900 45.5 1,888,000 40.3 -109,900 -5.545-64 1,658,300 37.8 1,919,500 41.0 261,200 15.865 & over 147,600 3.4 230,600 4.9 83,000 56.2

Male 2,342,800 53.4 2,473,700 52.8 130,900 5.6Female 2,045,200 46.6 2,213,500 47.2 168,300 8.2

White 3,460,100 78.9 3,566,200 76.1 106,100 3.1

Black 583,300 13.3 635,000 13.5 51,700 8.9Other Races 308,700 7.0 432,400 9.2 123,700 40.1Mult iracial 35,900 0.8 53,500 1.1 17,600 49.0

Hispanic 627,300 14.3 825,300 17.6 198,000 31.6

by Age

by Sex

by Race

2004 2014 Change: 2004-2014 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Total Labor Force 147,401 100.0 162,100 100.0 14,699 10.0

16-24 22,268 15.1 22,158 13.7 -110 -0.525-44 68,365 46.4 70,100 43.2 1,735 2.545-64 51,771 35.1 61,156 37.7 9,385 18.165 & over 4,997 3.4 8,687 5.4 3,690 73.8

Male 78,980 53.6 86,194 53.2 7,214 9.1

Female 68,421 46.4 75,906 46.8 7,485 10.9

White 121,086 82.1 129,936 80.2 8,850 7.3Black 16,638 11.3 19,433 12.0 2,795 16.8Asians 6,271 4.3 8,304 5.1 2,033 32.4Others 3,406 2.3 4,427 2.7 1,021 30.0

Hispanic 19,272 13.1 25,760 15.9 6,488 33.7

by Race

by Sex

by Age


25/25

2014ProjectionsMethodology

The population, labor force and industry and occupational employment projections are inte-

grated. Each series is both the result of and input to at least one other series. The projections arealso reviewed for reasonableness and consistency by outside experts prior to their public release.

Our goal is to produce a set of credible projections, consistent with long-term trends and, at the

same time, reflecting current developments in New Jersey.

The year 2014 industry employment projections were developed using time series and regres-

sion models. Population projections, developed in the Division of Labor Market and Demographic

Research, and national industry employment projections developed by the U.S. Department of

Labors Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), were key inputs into the industry employment projec-

tions. The industry employment projections are highly dependent on projected national indus-

try employment growth and New Jerseys historical performance relative to that of the nation.

Industry employment projections are based on the North American Industry Classification Sys-

tem (NAICS) of classifying employment by industry. NAICS, developed using a production-ori-

ented conceptual framework, groups establishments into industries based on the activity in which

they are primarily engaged. In other words, establishments that do similar things in similar ways

are classified together. The system is also used in Mexico and Canada.

The population projections were developed using a cohort-component method births, deaths,

and migration were projected by age, race, sex and Hispanic origin. Migration was projected

based on past trends and using the industry employment projections as a key input. The labor

force projections were developed by applying projected labor force participation rates to the

projected population of working age (16 years and over).

The occupational employment estimates and projections, and projections of annual job open-

ings, were developed from the following sources. The 2004 occupational employment estimates

and the 2014 projections of occupational employment were developed in the Division of Labor

Market and Demographic Research using industry employment estimates and projections and

occupational staffing patterns (by industry) developed from data collected through the Occupa-

tional Employment Statistics (OES) wage survey program. The occupational training and skill

requirements were taken from the BLS education and training classification system. The occupa-

tional wage estimates are based on data from the May 2005 Occupational Employment Statistics

(OES) wage survey.

department of labor: projection%202014%20web

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