department of mineral & energy economics professor daniel j. packey, ph.d. head of the...

Department of Mineral & Energy EconomicsDepartment of Mineral & Energy Economics

Professor Daniel J. Packey, Ph.D.Head of the Department of Mineral and Energy Economics

Curtin Graduate School of BusinessCurtin University

Rare Earth Markets and Their Affects on Solar and Wind Power


Few (if any) Known Substitutes


Source: USGS


2009 Mine ProductionWorld Mine Production and Reserves (2009 Data)

Country Production (Metric Ton) Reserves (Metric Ton)

United States insignificant 13,000,000

Australia insignificant 5,400,000

Brazil 650 48,000

China 120,000 36,000,000

Commonwealth of Independent States not available 19,000,000

India 2,700 3,100,000

Malaysia 380 30,000

Other countries not available 22,000,000

World total (rounded) 124,000 99,000,000

Source: USGS


Source: USGS


Rare Earths Price Index 2002-2010


REO Price Increases in 2010


China has significant influence of rare earth pricing and has, in the past, used it to the disadvantage of competitors.

The financial markets may not be willing to bear this risk.

Market Domination

Source: USGS


China’s export and tax regimes on Rare Earth Oxides, element and metals restricts supply outside of China and “could be seen as a lure to bring Rare Earth Technology manufacturing facilities into China where the export quotas do not apply.”

Leveraging Resource Advantages

Source: USGS


China’s strategic resource monopoly can be viewed as sovereign dominion over critical resources, related technology and intellectual property

"There is oil in the Middle East. There is Rare Earth in China". Deng Xiaoping (1992)

Source: USGS


Salt or Caustic FusionAcid leachingMultistage solvent extractionResulting in:A dark grey slightly radioactive (Thorium and/or Uranium) sludge laced with toxic compounds

Rare Earth Processing


Source: IEA

http://wwindea.org/home/index2.php?option=com_jce&task=popup


Source: IEA


The total market share for Chinese wind turbine manufacturers is 30.5%

Mostly permanent magnet machines

Chinese Market Participation

Source: USGS


Permanent Magnet Rare Earth Supply Chain


Source: Dr. Bogi Jensen


Permanent magnets for generators and other electrical machine consume 40% of rare earth based magnetsIn 2010, 26,000 tons of Rare Earths2015 estimate is 48,000 tons15-30% deficit to production Roskill Information Services - 2010

Dependency


New Vestas Largest Windmills are still wire wraped, geared generators. The Permanent Magnet markets will be strongly influenced by the Chinese Control of the Rare Earth Markets

Windpower developments


All currently manufactured thin film PV solar cells need either Indium or Tellurium – both of which are Rare Earth Elements

Thin Film PV

Source: USGS


The total market share for Chinese photovoltaics manufacturers is 27%

Mostly thin film photovoltaics

Chinese Market Participation

Source: USGS


There's another factor that could increase China's role as a central figure in the renewables space: Its control of 95% of the rare earth resources like Indium, Gallium and Lithium. These are central to the functionality of solar cells (CIGS and CdTe) and battery technologies for automotive and power storage applications.

This is not a surprise. But the announcement from Chinese officials last month (July 2010) that it would decrease shipment of these resources by 72% certainly was. The goal is for China to lure technology companies over to the country by giving them access to restricted resources. If it works, we may see a lot more clean energy firms moving over to China.

A Potential Chinese Development Strategy

Source: ttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/08/rare-earth-resources-increase-chinese-clout


The new solar cells convert light into electricity using a semiconductor material made of copper, zinc, tin, and sulfur--all abundant elements--as well as the relatively rare element selenium (CZTS). Reaching near-commercial efficiency levels is a "breakthrough for this technology," says Matthew Beard, a senior scientist at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, who was not involved with the work.

Potential Competition in Photovoltaics


PV Thin Films will be significantly influenced by Chinese Rare Earth Market Control Due to market share soften byAvailability of Potential Substitutes

Photovoltaic Developments


Chinese will continue to dominant the rare earth refinery market due to refinery by-products.This is independent of ore resources and They are likely to use this to access (and influence) new modern renewable energy (and other) technologies markets.

Rare Earth/ Wind Power and Solar Market Future


The End

department of mineral & energy economics professor daniel j. packey, ph.d. head of the...

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