Depopulation in Romanian rural areas

Key drivers and territorial footprint

// Alina HUZUI-STOICULESCU//Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration

2 5/24/2018

Rural depopulation in Romania

which are the drivers of rural demographic change?

which are the specific demographic characteristics at different territorial

levels?

which are the ways for improving the situation of the rural population??

Baseline situation.

Shrinking rural regions within their national context

5/24/20183 Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

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Romania is part of a severe

shrinkage phenomenon in

Central and Eastern

Europe.

The working age population

group entered a downward

spiral, while the elderly

population increases.

Source: ESPON (2017) Policy Brief:

Shrinking rural regions in Europe

Main rural population changes in Romania, 2014-2020 (in thousand people)

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Further strains on government revenues derived from income taxes

Increasing demand for healthcare and elderly care services.

Age-groups Years Change 2014-2020

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0-14 3.133 3.127 3.117 3.116 3.117 3.113 3.110 -24

15-19 1.093 1.088 1.092 1.090 1.081 1.071 1.061 -32

20-64 12.464 12.368 12.270 12.174 12.083 12.002 11.907 -557

65+ 3.297 3.381 3.457 3.524 3.592 3.656 3.733 436

Total 19.987 19.964 19.936 19.904 19.873 19.842 19.811 -177

Data provided by the National Institute for Statistics

Ministry of Labor Family, Social Protection and Elderly (2016), National

Strategy on Social Inclusion and Poverty Reduction 2015-2020

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

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Rural profile

the rural population has been constantly decreasing

the rural population growth rate has had increasingly

large negative values since 1990

the rural population has experienced a strong ageing process

the main drivers of population decline are the negative natural growth rate and

migration

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The 2011 Census:

- 3,172 villages with fewer

than 200 inhabitants

- 3.4% of the total rural

population (nearly 312,000

people) lives in small

villages

Most of these small villages

are:

- peripheral within their

communes (sometimes

situated many kilometers

away from the central

village)

- have elderly populations

Rural areas in Romania are organized into 2,861 communes (administrative units)

that include 12,373 villages, comprising 46% of the total population

Data source: Population Census 2002

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

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The 2011 Census:

- 3,172 villages with fewer

than 200 inhabitants

- 3.4% of the total rural

population (nearly 312,000

people) lives in small

villages

Most of these small villages

are:

- peripheral within their

communes (sometimes

situated many kilometers

away from the central

village)

- have elderly populations

Humancapital

Natural capital

Economic activities

Public utilitiesand

infrastructure

Socio-Economic Development Index - 2015

Source: Ministry of Agriculture (2015), Study on the Socio-

Economic Potential of Rural AreasFighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

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- Steady downward trend

in the number of people

(0.8 million inhabitants

in the period 1992-

2011)

- Population decline:

urban areas: -6.1% (1992-2002); -6.7% (2002-2011)

rural areas: -2.1% (1992-2002); -9.1% (2002-2011)

- Migration from rural to

urban areas decreased

from 50% in 1992 to

20% in 2011

Data source: Population Censuses 1992, 2002, 2011

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

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- The cumulative internal

migration flows, by source

and destination at the 2002

and 2011 censuses

- Urban-rural migration from

10% in 1992 to 30% in

2011

- Higher concentration of

rural population in the peri-

urban and suburban areas

Deindustrialization Return migration SuburbanizationTemporary migration

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

Natural decline and migration drive long-term shrinkage

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Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

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- Low fertility rates and

profund ageing in

deep rural areas

(Apuseni and Banat

Mountains, part of

Southern Romania

and Danube Delta)

- On this background, the

emigration of many

young people has the

potential to speed up

population ageing

Data source: Population Census 2011

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

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Negative natural growth rate values

in areas with:

1) low accessibility and low

economic development level

2) deep ruralism

3) strong industrial decline

Types of villages according to the

migration experience:

- high migration experience

- moderate migration experience

- relative imobility

Data source: Population Censuses 2002, 2011

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

Local Action Groups in Romania as an instrument of community development

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Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

Build on place-specific characteristics could improve the performance of

development policies

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Area-based and people-based

interventions must be integrated

in a framework of participative

community development in order

to fight rural decline effectively.

Rate of participation in LAGs:

- 54% small (<2.000 inhab.)

and remote communes

- 63% small non-remote

communes

- 69% remote communes with

>2,000 inhab.

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

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The strategy focused on a

participatory model in creating

jobs for the inhabitants from

Țara Zarandului

Unemployment is high

considering that most locals

used to work for coal mining

companies which are now

closed.

Case study - “Țara Zarandului” Local Action Group

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 MayData source: Population Censuses 2002, 2011

The 17th CEMAT session addressed the issue of Functional areas –

capitalisation of local potential in territorial development policies over the

European continent.

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a study on functional areas, including a questionnaire that was filled by 25 Member

States of the Council of Europe.

specific spatial development conditions require a place-based cooperation models.

unlock the potential of functional areas and call upon other relevant actors to promote

such measures as well.

Fighting depopulation in rural areas, Soria, Spain, 22-23 May

Identifying and defining functional

areas

Identifying and using endogenous

potential

Providing support for the development of functional areas

Ensuring Territorial Governance based on cooperation and

democratic principles

// Thank youAlina HUZUI-STOICULESCU, Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration,

Romania

This presentation will be made available at: www.espon.eu/xxx