Deputy Assistant Administrator Mitigation Directorate

Michael Buckley

FEMA’s Utilization of Tropical Forecasts

and Products

FEMA’s Utilization of Tropical Forecasts & Products

• Background on the Hurricane Program

• How we use products

• Examples

When disaster strikes:

Local officials are on the front lines

tasked with getting citizens to safety.

The National Hurricane Program Mission:

Optimize the performance of the National Emergency Management System

for hurricanes and tropical cyclones.

Hurricane Program Activities• Planning, Preparedness & Outreach:

− Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES) • Standards, Funding and Management

− Decision Making tool support:• HURREVAC• SLOSH

• Response:− Hurricane Liaison Team support:

• Partnerships with NHC, NWS, RFC, HPC…• Connection to state and local decision makers

– Post Storm Assessments:• Behavioral, transportation, hazards, vulnerability analysis

FEMA/ICCOH Partnerships• National Oceanic Atmospheric

Administration

• National Weather Service

• National Hurricane Center

• United States Army Corps of Engineers

• United States Department of Transportation

• State Emergency Management Agencies

• National Emergency Management Association

• American Red Cross

Mission:• Support hurricane response

operations through the rapid exchange of critical information between the National Hurricane Center and emergency managers at all levels.

Team:• FEMA staff, National Weather

Service meteorologists and hydrologists

Hurricane Liaison Team

• Activates when a hurricane threatens the United States or territories, and the National Hurricane Center deems the assistance is required

• Establishes and facilitates audio and video teleconferences with the National Hurricane Center, FEMA and other Federal agencies, and State Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs)

• Responds to emergency management questions and concerns

• Relays weather-related and emergency management issues to NHC specialists, HLT meteorologists, hydrologists, or NWS Forecast Offices

Hurricane Liaison Team

The Use of Advisory information

• Graphical representation of forecast track, error cone, wind radii is used– Interpolation of forecast to gauge decision timing

• Intensity, forward speed, and size are important

• Discussion of confidence and likely track/intensity scenarios kept in mind

• EMs just figuring out Wind Speed Probabilities– Could be a very powerful product used in decision making!– Need more storms under the belt to figure them out

Hazard & Impact information

• Use of SLOSH Display – MOMs and MEOWs of surge to help identify problem

areas– Actual runs for post impact visualization

• HURREVAC!– Decision making and timing– Then input to HAZUS MH: wind damage impact

estimator

• Use of SERFC outlooks and HPC rainfall forecast graphics

Briefing Examples

TD?

?Tropical Wave

Mon

ThursWed

Tues

Example of long range planning

Hurricane Track Models• Track and Intensity forecasts used

– Used in conjunction with Forecast Discussion– Helps with forecast confidence and worst case

scenarios (possible tracks mentioned by forecasters)– Decisions based on official track (hopefully)– Used prior to named storm and forecast

• Still misunderstanding some of the uses– Should be used by forecasters not EM

Does this help?

Is this good news?

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks-very well

received!

Trying to provide a consistent message

• From Post Storm Assessments:– A Consistent message is important– Multiple sources with reaffirming information

helps decision makers

• Exceedingly difficult with availability of– Independent forecasts– Model output– Information on the web