19 September,2017

DER Planning Framework: Karlynn Cory Manager – Consulting,SMUD iDER Renewable Energy

Thinking about the “Future” for Electric Utilities

Unidirectional power distribution from Distributed, variable,centralized bulk generation sustainable resources

Self-managing,demand Secure,responsive smart self-healing, self-

optimizing grid

generation

buildings

Energy-efficient, self-managing homesdriven

Cleantransportation, by consumer choice leveraging clean

and storage of energy Consumers/businesses are bothusers andcreators of energy (bi-directional power distribution)

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Black & Veatch Approach to Distributed Resource Planning DRP Framework

• Benchmarking of DRPin other states • DRPstrategic objectives • Overall DRP process design and alignment • Gap analysis of existing DER processes • Stakeholder workshops • Regulatory filing support

Distribution Planning • Hostingcapacityandfuturescenario analysis• Customer DER potential & adoption forecasting • T&D upgradedeferral opportunitieswithDERs

Benefit/Cost Analysis • Methodologyfor locational costs/benefits • Analysis of locational costs/benefits

• Business case for DER technology investments(hardware and software)

Grid Investment

Tariffs/Contracts/Programs • Alignexisting/new DERprograms withDRPobjectives

• (Re)Design of DER tariffs/rates

Implementation/Demonstrations • Design of pilot program for grid benefits • EPCof integrated DER pilot project • Mitigationstrategies for DER grid impacts • Procurement process& contractdevelopment for grid services from DERs

• RFP & vendor selection support for DER-related technologies

• Customer engagement plan

Other Services • Identify/discuss DER growth barriers • Implementation of IT/OT platforms for DER,and AMIdata analytics

• Mapsof hosting capacity,locational value • Stakeholder workshops on data sharing

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One Approach to Developing a DRP framework

Black & Veatch generally uses the following tasks to support utility clients in developing the DRPFramework, leveraging our team’s unique combination of expertise:

• DRP Processes in Other States Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4

• Identify Barriers to DERDeployment

• Refine DRP Strategic Objectives forUtility

• Adviseon DRPProcess Design andAlignment

• Summarize the findings from Tasks 1-4, and provide a list of next steps in the DRP process.

• Key Assumptions for completingthis deliverable onschedule: • Utility staff are available for meetings as needed to

provide input andreview preliminary findings. This will be particularly important for Tasks 3-4.

• The deliverable will focus on figures,tables,charts,and text in bullet format,and will not be a full written report with complete paragraphs.

PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL 4

18 January 2018

DRP Process Design and Alignment

1. Document a proposedDRP process

2. AlignDRP withexisting planning andregulatory processes inthe future

PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL 5

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Black & Veatch and SEPA Series:Planning the Distributed Energy Future

https://sepapower.org/resource/beyond-the-meter-planning-the-distributed-energy-future-volume-i/ https://sepapower.org/resource/beyond-meter-planning-distributed-energy-future-volume-ii/

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SMUD iDERPlanning: Project Background

• SMUD engaged Black & Veatch to assist in assessingintegrated Distributed Energy Resources (iDER)

• Majortasks a) Review of existing workand processes; tie together

approaches

b) Rooftop PVpotential modeling

c) New,detailed assessments of potential through dispersionmodeling (customerDERpotential and adoption forecast)

d) Distribution system impact modeling (GRIDiant)

e) Bulk system impact modeling (PLEXOS)

f) Economic valuation (net value of each DER,and combined) Projected DER Load Impacts

• First of a kind study

SMUD customers / 3rd parties spend$150-$200MM/yearon DERs;more than SMUD spendson utility-scaleRE

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CHP EE PV Stor. EV DR

CONSIDER DER IMPACTS FROMMULTIPLE ANGLES

DER Potential ByCircuit IndividualCustomer DER Adoption

• Summary-level information • Customer-level information

• Total change in load (MWh) on acircuit due to DER (+ or-)

• Different symbol and colorforeachDER. Size proportional to DER output.

• All parcels served by circuitshaded same

• Concentric circles formulti-DER

Change in Load (GWh/yr)

-5 +5

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ALL RESIDENTIAL DER ALL COMMERCIAL DER

Gene

ratio

nLoad

CHP EE PV Stor. EV DR

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DG SOLAR PV POTENTIALAPPROACH

TechnicalPotential

EconomicPotential

AchievablePotential

• What is technically practical • LiDAR-based assessmentofavailablerooftop space by building

• Aerial Imagery analysis ofcommercialparking lotspace

• What makes financial sense • Tied technical potential to SMUDcustomerdatabase

• Cloud-basedcomputing to assesspayback ofsolar for individualcustomers,under4 scenarios

• What might actually happen • Application ofMarketPenetrationPotential and Customer Adoption Curves

• Adoption modeling ofindividualcustomers

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VIOLATIONS51 SUBSTATIONS (26%), COULD HAVE VOLTAGEAT SERVICE TRANSFORMERSDUE TOPV

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OVER 12,000 TRANSFORMERSBE UPGRADED DUETO EVS, 17%

MAYNEED TOOF TOTAL

PERCENT OFTRANSFORMERSSTRESSED DUETO EVS

REPRESENTS AHIGHEV,UNOPTIMIZEDCHARGINGSCENARIO

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MAXIMUMDER PENETRATION(52%) – JUNE 25, 2030

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

DR ES - Utility ES - Customer EV PV - Customer

EE CHP SMUD Load Net Load -DER

Unmanaged

The combined DERportfolio was found todecrease rampingrequirements and toactuallyflattenSMUD’snet loadprofile.

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2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

-1000

-1500

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18 January 2018

Preparing for the Inevitable Arrival ofDERs • Different drivers willpush different technologymixes

• What areyourgoals?How do they meld with otherstakeholders’ goals?

• What arethemain drivers that will help you meet yourgoals?Others’ goals?

• Mostutilities are concerned aboutDERs • But they don’t have the tools tobe flexible, nimble, and responsive

• Slow to change planning activitiesto be prepared, instead of reactive

• SMUD is asking forward-lookingquestions to be readyfor thepredictedonslaught of DERs • “But wedon’t haveSMUD’s level ofpenetration, do weneed to act now?” YES

• Identify activities that can be done now, to be prepared (e.g., least regrets)

Black & Veatch

All Hands onDeck

1. Critical pathway: DATA • More detailed data needs to be gathered (e.g., net load is inadequate) • We are findingdata for the same location can be inconsistent and not in the

sameformat– data validation and data formattingis a heavy, and necessarylift

2. Planning andOperations Analysis:New Insights • Link DRP and bulk system/integrated resource planning(IRP) • Understand the impact on the utilitysystem and economics • Don’t tryto analyze all of the data:focus on keyissues in problem locations

3. Identify win-win-winpathways forward • Keystakeholders need to be on board from the start;roadblocks could mean

• Requires investments in analytics, modelingtools, communications systems andIT infrastructure.(DOE to fund? Utilities havingtrouble gettingcapital internally)

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18 January 2018

Karlynn Cory Manager,Consulting – Renewable Energy Karlynn Cory +1 720-834-4274 CoryK@bv.com