descriptive and analytical epidemiology
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[PPT] Descriptive and Analytical EpidemiologyTRANSCRIPT
Public Health Information Network (PHIN)
Series I
is for Epi
Epidemiology basics for non-epidemiologists
Series Overview
Introduction to:
• The history of Epidemiology
• Specialties in the field
• Key terminology, measures, and resources
• Application of Epidemiological methods
Series I Sessions
Title Date
“Epidemiology in the Context of Public Health”
January 12
“An Epidemiologist’s Tool Kit” February 3
“Descriptive and Analytic Epidemiology”
March 3
“Surveillance” April 7
“Epidemiology Specialties Applied” May 5
What to Expect. . .
TodayUnderstand the basic terminology and measures used in descriptive and analytic Epidemiology
Session I – V Slides
VDH will post PHIN series slides on the following Web site:
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/EPR/Training.asp
NCCPHP Training Web site:
http://www.sph.unc.edu/nccphp/training
Site Sign-in Sheet
Please submit your site sign-in sheet to:
Suzi Silverstein
Director, Education and TrainingEmergency Preparedness & Response Programs
FAX: (804) 225 - 3888
Series ISession III
“Descriptive and Analytic Epidemiology”
Today’s Presenter
Kim Brunette, MPHEpidemiologistNorth Carolina Center for Public Health Preparedness, Institute for Public Health, UNC Chapel Hill
Session Overview
1. Define descriptive epidemiology
2. Define incidence and prevalence
3. Discuss examples of the use of descriptive data
4. Define analytic epidemiology
5. Discuss different study designs
6. Discuss measures of association
7. Discuss tests of significance
Today’s Learning Objectives• Understand the distinction between
descriptive and analytic Epidemiology, and their utility in surveillance and outbreak investigations
• Recognize descriptive and analytic measures used in the Epidemiological literature
• Know how to interpret data analysis output for measures of association and common statistical tests
Descriptive Epidemiology
Prevalence and Incidence
What is Epidemiology?
Study of the distribution and determinants of states or events in specified populations, and the application of this study to the control of health problems– Study risk associated with exposures– Identify and control epidemics– Monitor population rates of disease and
exposure
What is Epidemiology?
• Looking to answer the questions:
– Who?
– What?
– When?
– Where?
– Why?
– How?
Case Definition
• A case definition is a set of standard diagnostic criteria that must be fulfilled in order to identify a person as a case of a particular disease
• Ensures that all persons who are counted as cases actually have the same disease
• Typically includes clinical criteria (lab results, symptoms, signs) and sometimes restrictions on time, place, and person
Descriptive vs. Analytic Epidemiology
• Descriptive Epidemiology deals with the questions: Who, What, When, and Where
• Analytic Epidemiology deals with the remaining questions: Why and How
Descriptive Epidemiology
• Provides a systematic method for characterizing a health problem
• Ensures understanding of the basic dimensions of a health problem
• Helps identify populations at higher risk for the health problem
• Provides information used for allocation of resources
• Enables development of testable hypotheses
Descriptive EpidemiologyWhat?
• Addresses the question “How much?”
• Most basic is a simple count of cases– Good for looking at the burden of disease– Not useful for comparing to other groups or
populations
Race # of Salmonella cases Pop. size
Black 119 1,450,675
White 497 5,342,532
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epi/Data/race03t.pdf
Prevalence
• The number of affected persons present in the population divided by the number of people in the population
# of casesPrevalence =
-----------------------------------------# of people in the
population
Prevalence ExampleIn 1999, Virginia reported an estimated 253,040 residents over 20 years of age with diabetes. The US Census Bureau estimated that the 1999 Virginia population over 20 was 5,008,863.
253,040Prevalence= =
0.0515,008,863
• In 1999, the prevalence of diabetes in Virginia was 5.1%– Can also be expressed as 51 cases per 1,000
residents over 20 years of age
Prevalence
• Useful for assessing the burden of disease within a population
• Valuable for planning
• Not useful for determining what caused disease
Incidence
• The number of new cases of a disease that occur during a specified period of time divided by the number of persons at risk of developing the disease during that period of time
# of new cases of disease over a specific period of time
Incidence = ------------------------------------------- # of persons at risk of
disease over that specific period of time
Incidence Example
• A study in 2002 examined depression among persons with dementia. The study recruited 201 adults with dementia admitted to a long-term care facility. Of the 201, 91 had a prior diagnosis of depression. Over the first year, 7 adults developed depression.
7Incidence = = 0.0636
110• The one year incidence of depression among adults with
dementia is 6.36%– Can also be expressed as 63.6 (64) cases per 1,000
persons with dementia
Incidence
• High incidence represents diseases with high occurrence; low incidence represents diseases with low occurrence
• Can be used to help determine the causes of disease
• Can be used to determine the likelihood of developing disease
Prevalence and Incidence
• Prevalence is a function of the incidence of disease and the duration of disease
Prevalence and Incidence
Prevalence
= prevalent cases
Prevalence and Incidence
Old (baseline) prevalence
= prevalent cases = incident cases
New prevalence
Incidence
No cases die or recover
Prevalence and Incidence
= prevalent cases = incident cases = deaths or recoveries
Time for you to try it!!!
Descriptive Epidemiology
Person, Place, Time
Descriptive EpidemiologyWho? When? Where?
Related to Person, Place, and Time• Person
– May be characterized by age, race, sex, education, occupation, or other personal variables
• Place– May include information on home, workplace,
school
• Time– May look at time of illness onset, when
exposure to risk factors occurred
Person Data
• Age and Sex are almost always used in looking at data– Age data are usually grouped – intervals will
depend on what type of disease / event is being looked at
• May be shown in tables or graphs
• May look at more than one type of person data at once
Data Characterized by Person
http://www.vahealth.org/civp/Injury%20in%20Virginia_Report_2004.pdf
Data Characterized by Person
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/std/AnnualReport2003.pdf
Data Characterized by Person
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epi/cancer/Report99.pdf
Data Characterized by Person
http://www.vahealth.org/chronic/Data_Report_Part_3.pdf
Time Data
• Usually shown as a graph– Number / rate of cases on vertical (y) axis– Time periods on horizontal (x) axis
• Time period will depend on what is being described
• Used to show trends, seasonality, day of week / time of day, epidemic period
Data Characterized by Time
http://www.dhhs.state.nc.us/docs/ecoli.htm
Epi Curve for E.Coli outbreakn=108
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Date of onse t
Nu
mb
er o
f ca
ses
Data Characterized by Time
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/std/HIVSTDTrends.pdf
Data Characterized by Time
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5153a1.htm
Data Characterized by Time
http://www.health.qld.gov.au/phs/Documents/cdu/12776.pdf
Place Data• Can be shown in a table; usually better
presented pictorially in a map
• Two main types of maps used: choropleth and spot– Choropleth maps use different
shadings/colors to indicate the count / rate of cases in an area
– Spot maps show location of individual cases
Data Characterized by Place
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epi/Data/region03t.pdf
Data Characterized by Place
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epi/Data/Maps2002.pdf
Data Characterized by Place
http://www.vahealth.org/civp/preventsuicideva/epiplan%202004.pdf
Data Characterized by Place
http://www.vahealth.org/civp/preventsuicideva/epiplan%202004.pdf
Data Characterized by Place
Source: Olsen, S.J. et al. N Engl J Med. 2003 Dec 18; 349(25):2381-2.
5 Minute Break
Analytic Epidemiology
Hypotheses and Study Designs
Descriptive vs. Analytic Epidemiology
• Descriptive Epidemiology deals with the questions: Who, What, When, and Where
• Analytic Epidemiology deals with the remaining questions: Why and How
Analytic Epidemiology
• Used to help identify the cause of disease
• Typically involves designing a study to test hypotheses developed using descriptive epidemiology
Borgman, J (1997). The Cincinnati Enquirer. King Features Syndicate.
Exposure and Outcome
A study considers two main factors: exposure and outcome
• Exposure refers to factors that might influence one’s risk of disease
• Outcome refers to case definitions
Case Definition• A set of standard diagnostic criteria that
must be fulfilled in order to identify a person as a case of a particular disease
• Ensures that all persons who are counted as cases actually have the same disease
• Typically includes clinical criteria (lab results, symptoms, signs) and sometimes restrictions on time, place, and person
Developing Hypotheses
• A hypothesis is an educated guess about an association that is testable in a scientific investigation
• Descriptive data provide information to develop hypotheses
• Hypotheses tend to be broad initially and are then refined to have a narrower focus
Example• Hypothesis: People who ate at the church picnic
were more likely to become ill– Exposure is eating at the church picnic– Outcome is illness – this would need to be defined, for
example, ill persons are those who have diarrhea and fever
• Hypothesis: People who ate the egg salad at the church picnic were more likely to have laboratory-confirmed Salmonella– Exposure is eating egg salad at the church picnic– Outcome is laboratory confirmation of Salmonella
Types of Studies
Two main categories:1. Experimental2. Observational
1. Experimental studies – exposure status is assigned
2. Observational studies – exposure status is not assigned
Experimental Studies
• Can involve individuals or communities
• Assignment of exposure status can be random or non-random
• The non-exposed group can be untreated (placebo) or given a standard treatment
• Most common is a randomized clinical trial
Experimental Study Examples
• Randomized clinical trial to determine if giving magnesium sulfate to pregnant women in preterm labor decreases the risk of their babies developing cerebral palsy
• Randomized community trial to determine if fluoridation of the public water supply decreases dental cavities
Observational Studies
Three main types:
1. Cross-sectional study
2. Cohort study
3. Case-control study
Cross-Sectional Studies
• Exposure and outcome status are determined at the same time
• Examples include:– Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
(BRFSS) - http://www.cdc.gov/brfss/ – National Health and Nutrition Surveys
(NHANES) - http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes.htm
• Also include most opinion and political polls
Cohort Studies• Study population is grouped by exposure
status
• Groups are then followed to determine if they develop the outcome
Exposure Outcome
Prospective Assessed at beginning of study
Followed into the future for outcome
Retrospective Assessed at some point in the past
Outcome has already occurred
Cohort Studies
Disease No Disease
StudyPopulation
Exposed Non-exposed
No DiseaseDisease
Exposure isself selected
Follow throughtime
Cohort Study Examples
• Study to determine if smokers have a higher risk of lung cancer
• Study to determine if children who receive influenza vaccination miss fewer days of school
• Study to determine if the coleslaw was the cause of a foodborne illness outbreak
Case-Control Studies
• Study population is grouped by outcome
• Cases are persons who have the outcome
• Controls are persons who do not have the outcome
• Past exposure status is then determined
Case-Control Studies
Had Exposure No Exposure
StudyPopulation
Cases Controls
No ExposureHad Exposure
Case-Control Study Examples
• Study to determine an association between autism and vaccination
• Study to determine an association between lung cancer and radon exposure
• Study to determine an association between salmonella infection and eating at a fast food restaurant
Cohort versus Case-Control Study
Classification of Study Designs
Source: Grimes DA, Schulz KF. Lancet 2002; 359: 58
Time for you to try it!!!
5 Minute Break
Analytic Epidemiology
Measures of Association
and
Statistical Tests
Measures of Association• Assess the strength of an association
between an exposure and the outcome of interest
• Indicate how more or less likely one is to develop disease as compared to another
• Two widely used measures:1. Relative risk (a.k.a. risk ratio, RR)2. Odds ratio (a.k.a. OR)
2 x 2 TablesUsed to summarize counts of disease and exposure in order to do calculations of association
Outcome
Exposure Yes No Total
Yes a b a + b
No c d c + d
Total a + c b + d a + b + c + d
2 x 2 Tables
a = number who are exposed and have the outcomeb = number who are exposed and do not have the outcomec = number who are not exposed and have the outcomed = number who are not exposed and do not have the outcome
***********************************************************************a + b = total number who are exposedc + d = total number who are not exposeda + c = total number who have the outcomeb + d = total number who do not have the outcomea + b + c + d = total study population
Relative Risk
• The relative risk is the risk of disease in the exposed group divided by the risk of disease in the non-exposed group
• RR is the measure used with cohort studies
a
a + bRR =
c
c + d
Relative Risk Example
Escherichia coli?
Pink hamburger Yes No
Total
Yes 23 10 33
No 7 60 67
Total 30 70 100
a / (a + c) 23 / 33RR = = = 6.67
c / (c+ d) 7 / 67
Odds Ratio
• In a case-control study, the risk of disease cannot be directly calculated because the population at risk is not known
• OR is the measure used with case-control studies
a x d
OR = b x c
Odds Ratio Example
Autism
MMR Vaccine? Yes No
Total
Yes 130 115 245
No 120 135 255
Total 250 250 500
a x d 130 x 135OR = = = 1.27
b x c 115 x 120
Interpretation
Both the RR and OR are interpreted as follows:
= 1 - indicates no association
> 1 - indicates a positive association
< 1 - indicates a negative association
Interpretation• If the RR = 5
– People who were exposed are 5 times more likely to have the outcome when compared with persons who were not exposed
• If the RR = 0.5– People who were exposed are half as likely to have
the outcome when compared with persons who were not exposed
• If the RR = 1– People who were exposed are no more or less likely
to have the outcome when compared to persons who were not exposed
Tests of Significance• Indication of reliability of the association that
was observed
• Answers the question “How likely is it that the observed association may be due to chance?”
• Two main tests:1. 95% Confidence Intervals (CI)
2. p-values
95% Confidence Interval (CI)
• The 95% CI is the range of values of the measure of association (RR or OR) that has a 95% chance of containing the true RR or OR
• One is 95% “confident” that the true measure of association falls within this interval
95% CI Example
Disease Odds Ratio 95% CI
Gonorrhea 2.4 1.3 – 4.4
Trichomonas 1.9 1.3 – 2.8
Yeast 1.3 1.0 – 1.7
Other vaginitis 1.7 1.0 – 2.7
Herpes 0.9 0.5 – 1.8
Genital warts 0.4 0.2 – 1.0
Grodstein F, Goldman MB, Cramer DW. Relation of tubal infertility to history of sexually transmitted diseases. Am J Epidemiol. 1993 Mar 1;137(5):577-84
Interpreting 95% Confidence Intervals
• To have a significant association between exposure and outcome, the 95% CI should not include 1.0
• A 95% CI range below 1 suggests less risk of the outcome in the exposed population
• A 95% CI range above 1 suggests a higher risk of the outcome in the exposed population
p-values• The p-value is a measure of how likely the
observed association would be to occur by chance alone, in the absence of a true association
• A very small p-value means that you are very unlikely to observe such a RR or OR if there was no true association
• A p-value of 0.05 indicates only a 5% chance that the RR or OR was observed by chance alone
p-value Example
Disease Odds Ratio 95% CI p-value
Gonorrhea 2.4 1.3 – 4.4 0.004
Trichomonas 1.9 1.3 – 2.8 0.001
Yeast 1.3 1.0 – 1.7 0.04
Other vaginitis 1.7 1.0 – 2.7 0.04
Herpes 0.9 0.5 – 1.8 0.80
Genital warts 0.4 0.2 – 1.0 0.05
Grodstein F, Goldman MB, Cramer DW. Relation of tubal infertility to history of sexually transmitted diseases. Am J Epidemiol. 1993 Mar 1;137(5):577-84
Time for you to try it!!!
Questions???
Epidemiology Pocket Guide:Quick Review Any Time!
• Measures of Disease Frequency• Classification of Study Designs• 2 x 2 Tables• Measures of Association• Tests of Significance
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/EPR/Training.asp
Session III Slides
Following this program, please visit the Web site below to access and download a copy of today’s slides:
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/EPR/Training.asp
Site Sign-in Sheet
Please submit your site sign-in sheet to:
Suzi Silverstein
Director, Education and TrainingEmergency Preparedness & Response Programs
FAX: (804) 225 - 3888
References and Resources
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1992). Principles of Epidemiology: 2nd Edition. Public Health Practice Program Office: Atlanta, GA.
• Gordis, L. (2000). Epidemiology: 2nd Edition. W.B. Saunders Company: Philadelphia, PA.
• Gregg, M.B. (2002). Field Epidemiology: 2nd Edition. Oxford University Press: New York.
• Hennekens, C.H. and Buring, J.E. (1987). Epidemiology in Medicine. Little, Brown and Company: Boston/Toronto.
References and Resources• Last, J.M. (2001). A Dictionary of Epidemiology: 4th Edition. Oxford
University Press: New York.
• McNeill, A. (January 2002). Measuring the Occurrence of Disease: Prevalence and Incidence. Epid 160 lecture series, UNC Chapel Hill School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology.
• Morton, R.F, Hebel, J.R., McCarter, R.J. (2001). A Study Guide to Epidemiology and Biostatistics: 5th Edition. Aspen Publishers, Inc.: Gaithersburg, MD.
• University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, and the Epidemiologic Research & Information Center (June 1999). ERIC Notebook. Issue 2. http://www.sph.unc.edu/courses/eric/eric_notebooks.htm
References and Resources• University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Public Health,
Department of Epidemiology, and the Epidemiologic Research & Information Center (July 1999). ERIC Notebook. Issue 3. http://www.sph.unc.edu/courses/eric/eric_notebooks.htm
• University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, and the Epidemiologic Research & Information Center (September 1999). ERIC Notebook. Issue 5. http://www.sph.unc.edu/courses/eric/eric_notebooks.htm
• University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology (August 2000). Laboratory Instructor’s Guide: Analytic Study Designs. Epid 168 lecture series. http://www.epidemiolog.net/epid168/labs/AnalyticStudExerInstGuid2000.pdf
2005 PHIN Training Development Team
Pia MacDonald, PhD, MPH Director, NCCPHP
Jennifer Horney, MPHDirector, Training and Education, NCCPHP
Kim Brunette, MPHEpidemiologist, NCCPHP
Anjum Hajat, MPHEpidemiologist, NCCPHP
Sarah Pfau, MPH Consultant