designing a sustainable swiss energy system presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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Designing a Sustainable Swiss Energy System
A Technological and Institutional Perspective
Aldo Ballistreri Jannis Klonk Linda Romanovska Christopher Snyder Friedrich Wochinger
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Contents
General Introduction Energy Policies in Switzerland Technological Analysis of Swiss Energy System Sustainability Issues
Research Questions, Methodology and Limitations
Modelling the Current and Future Energy System Technological Analysis Cost-Benefit Analysis
Institutional Change Analysis Stakeholder Analysis
Conclusions
Perspectives
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Introduction
Today’s energy issues – general: Finite reserves and lack of accessibility
Growing energy demand
Increasing price variability
Security of supply
Dependency on politically unstable regimes
Environmental degradation from resource extraction to consumption
Human health problems
Today’s energy issues – Switzerland in particular: High import share
High CO2 emissions
Closing down of two nuclear power plants – ‘electricity gap’ of 25%
Alternative solutions are needed
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Characteristics of the Swiss Political System
Sustainability is leading concept
Evironmental – Social – Long term economic
Direct democracy Public initiatives and referenda
+ Enables population to propose or to prevent a law
+ Leads to compromises supported by majority
– Can delay political process and change
– Might hinder radical change and innovation
Compliance with many EU directives
High integration into international energy and especially electricity trade (policies)
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Important political milestones
First Energy Law
Energy Article in Federal
Constitution
Construction of first NPPs
First Energy Action Plan
CO2 Act
Electricity supply Act
New Energy Action Plans
Feed in Tarif
1960 2000 1980 1970 1990 2010
Construction of last NPPs
First environmental protection law
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Nuclear power development
2040 1960 2000
Beznau II
Beznau I
Gösgen
Mühleberg
Leibstadt
2020 1980
10 year moratorium
No phase out
Anticipated ‘electricity
gap‘
New referenda on NPPs
Rejection of prolonged
moratorium
No phase out
1970 1990 2010 2030
New reactor(s)
First discussions
and referenda on NPPs
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39%
56%
4% 1%
Nuclear
Hydro
Thermal
Div RES
Technological Analysis
Swiss energy demand Electricity production
Road traffic 90 %
18,5 % of PES come from renewable resources
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Electricity Production
39% 56%
4% 1%
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Electricity Production
39%
56%
4% 1%
5 Reactors 3 Reactors supply DH
Nuclear
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Electricity Production
39%
56%
4% 1%
- Storage hydro - River hydro - Pumped storage hydro - Micro hydro
5 Reactors 3 Reactors supply DH
Nuclear
Hydro
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Electricity Production
39%
56%
4% 1%
- Distric heating CHP - Micro CHP - Industrial CHP - Waste incineration plants - Electricity plant
5 Reactors 3 Reactors supply DH
- Storage hydro - River hydro - Pumped storage hydro - Micro hydro
Nuclear
Hydro
Thermal 38% of fuels is from RE
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Electricity Production
39%
56%
4%
- Distric heating CHP - Micro CHP - Industrial CHP - Waste incineration plants - Electricity plant
- Photovoltaic - 44.8 MW - Solar thermal - 377 MW - Wind - 13.6 MW
5 Reactors 3 Reactors supply DH
- Storage hydro - River hydro - Pumped storage hydro - Micro hydro
1%
Nuclear
Hydro
Thermal Renewable technolgies
38% of fuels is from RE
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Sustainability Issues
Negative impacts
Fossil fuels
Nuclear power
Hydro power
Biomass Solar power
Wind power
Geothermal
GHG emission
Waste management
Damage to ecosystem
Noise pollution
Resources depletation
Risk of minor earthquakes
Toxic effluents
Aesthetic degradation
Hazard to flying creatures
Competition with food production
Water consumption Exposure to
electromagnetic field Exposure to radioactivivty
Flooding
Opposition from local inhabitants
Increasing resource prices
Import dependency
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Research question
How can the Swiss energy sector be developed in a sustainable way and what is the character of the needed institutional change?
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Sub-questions
1. What is the current political and technological situation of the Swiss energy sector and what are the critical issues from the perspective of sustainability?
2. What is the domestic energy resource base for the choices of the future development of the Swiss energy system?
3. What is a sustainable solution for re-designing the Swiss energy system?
4. What is the character of the change necessary in the institutional setting of the Swiss energy system for implementing a sustainable alternative and what are the positions and opinions of the key stakeholders?
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Methodology
Applied theories of subject Research tools:
• Literature studies and document analysis
• Idealized re-design
• EnergyPLAN
• Cost-benefit analysis
• Institutional change analysis
• Stakeholder analysis
• Structured interviews
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Limitations
Geographical
2010
2020 2030
Time Transportation
Behavioural change Future technologies Grid
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Modelling the current system
The modelling tool - EnergyPLAN
159 data inputs, out of which 69 % from sources, 16% calculated from statistical data, 15% assumptions.
11 self-made hourly fluctuation data files for hydropower, solar PV, SC, wind power as well as electricity and heat demand.
+ The external conditions
= Technological specifications
The hourly production fluctuations
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Exis%ng System 2008 Modelled System 2008 Electricity Demand 58.70 58.70
Import (TWh) 50.27 4.62 Export (TWh) 51.41 5.45
Trade Balance (TWh) 1.14 0.83 RES Share of PES 18.50% 18.80%
Share of electricity producGon 58% 62%
CO2 Emissions (Mt) 42.2 (2007) 46.1 Fossil Fuel Use (TWh) 183.1 172.6
Validation of the modelled system
< 4 Mt
>
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Modelling of Future Pathways
New nuclear capacity Estimated EV sales
Accelerated development of RE capacities
Increased EV sales Phase out individual coal boiler Partially replace individual heating
with solar collectors and district heating
Business-as-usual (BAU) Alternative pathway (AP)
Projected growing trends in energy and fuel demand
Projected historical development of the existing technologies
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Yearly Growth Rates in AP
2010 2030 2020
35%
8% 18%
5%
5% 58%
3% 31%
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Utilization of Resources
Wind Building surfaces Biomass
DH
53.18%
32.04%
50.74%
16.14%
86.57%
51.25%
73.03%
20.86%
100% 100% 100% 100%
Total potential
2020
2030
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Demand Side Management (2020 - 2030)
Electricity demand (based on 2020) -15% "
Industry & services fuels (based on 2020) -15%
Transportation fuels (based on 2020) -15%
Electric Heating ✖
Residential Oil Boilers ✖
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Comparison of pathways
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
BAU 2020
BAU 2030
AP 2020
AP 2030
DSM 2020
DSM 2030 Oil
Nuclear
RES
Natural Gas
Biomass
Waste
Coal
TWh/yr
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Demand & Supply Balance (AP)
Electricity demand
Electricity export
Electricity import
Nuclear+ Power plants+ Storage Hydro
River Hydro
Wind and PV
Co-generation
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Cost & Benefit Analysis
Nuclear Power Renewable technologies
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Structure of Costs & Benefits
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X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
Investment in PV Investment in Nuclear X O&M of PV X O&M of Nuclear
Methodology of Cost Calculations
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150000
160000
170000
180000
190000
200000
BAU AP
ME
uo
Investment costs
Fixed O&M costs
Variable O&M costs
Fuel costs
Total System Costs
0
150000
BAU AP
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Externalities
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
BAU AP M
Euo
Externalities
Total System Costs
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
BAU AP
ME
uo
Wind
PV
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Ngas
Coal
Oil
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Benefits
Shifting expenses from fuels and investments in nuclear reactors to investment in renewables leads to:
Reduced CO2 emissions
Reduced dependency on imports and domestic value creation
Employment 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2020 2030
Mt
CO
2 CES
BAU
AP
DSM
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Benefits - Employment
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
PV Wind CHP Boiler Nuclear Indiv. SC Total
BAU
AP
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Additional Benefits - DSM
24.2 TWh/yr theoretical excess electricity production
Decommissioning of all remaining nuclear power (18.8 TWh/yr) can be considered
Reduced investments in renewable production possible (lower growth rates)
Electricity-to-fuel conversion (further benefits such as CO2 / import reductions)
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Present situation
Radical technological
change
Future situation
Institutional Change Analysis
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Institutional Setting
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Stakeholder Analysis Macro Structure
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System Dynamics:
High degree of vertical integration
Complex ownership
Influence on political decision making process
RE companies have marginal role & are often subsidiaries of large providers
Stakeholder Analysis Micro Structure
Inner circle: Shareholders of SwissGrid Second circle: Public Shareholders Third circle: Private Shareholders
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Stakeholder Analysis Interviews
• Government • Media • Industry • Scientific • Academic • NGO
• Helicopter interviews
• Questionnaire: open-ended, unbiased
• Pro-nuclear • Neutral • Pro-renewable
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Stakeholder Analysis Interview Results
• Energy security • Climate change • Affordability
• Priorities • Solutions • Concerns
• Electricity gap • Import
dependency • Liberalization • Institutional
barriers • Political bias
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Stakeholder Analysis Interview Results
• Grid stability • Control • Profit margins • Financial
support
• Lobbying • Advertising
• Institutional • nuclear • hydro • fossil fuel
• Public • hydro • solar • biomass
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Stakeholder Analysis Interview Results
• Increased RE • Energy
efficiency standards
• Smart grid • Public transport • Increase EVs
• Overcome influence
• Knowledge base creation
• Integration of EU energy policies
• Aggressive & accountable action plans
• Efficiency programs
• Emission taxes • Remove legacy
technology subsidies
• Increase RE incentives
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Conclusions
Unsustainable current energy
system _______________________
Electricity gap
Sufficient renewable energy
sources for electricity gap
____________________
DSM may substitute all
NPP‘s
Technically feasible to
increase RE technologies
____________________
Only slightly more expensive
with considerable benefits
Radical technological
change necessary __________________
Institutional change to
‘punctuated evolution‘
Main barriers are in the
institutional setup
__________________
Need of public
dialogue and education
Development towards
sustainable energy system
possible
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Perspectives
First hand local data could increase precision of modelling
Production and demand
Costs
Domestic value creation
Externalities
Inclusion of external markets in the analysis
Barriers to sustainable development have to be investigated further
Specific steps towards institutional change have to be determined
Research results should be translated into political action
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Thank You For Your Attention!