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Demographic Overviewof County Kerry

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1. Demographic Profile – main featuresAccording to the most recent Census of Population (2011), County Kerry has a total population of 145,502. This makes Kerry the eighth most populous county in the State. Kerry contains 3.17% of the State’s population. Kerry’s population has stabilised since the 1960s and has grown from 121,894 persons in 1991 to 145,502 in 2011. This represents an increase of 19.37% in twenty years. The following graph shows the longitudinal change in Kerry’s population.

Fig. 1.1: Total Population of County Kerry, 1841 ‐ 2011

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As the following graph shows, Kerry’s population has grown in recent decades, although the rate of growth since 1996 has lagged considerably behind the national average.

Fig. 1.2: Percentage Population Change during Inter‐Censal Periods since 1991 (Ireland and Kerry)

1991 to 1996 1996 to 2002 2002 to 2006 2006 to 2011

Inter‐Census Periods

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Ireland Kerry

As this graph shows, the State’s population and that of Kerry have grown consistently since 1991. Kerry’s population grew at a slightly faster rate than the State average between 1991 and 1996; Kerry grew by 3.48%, while the State as a whole grew by 2.85%. Since 1996 however, the average



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population growth across the State has exceeded growth rates in County Kerry. During the most recent inter‐censal period (2006 to 2011), Kerry’s growth rate was half that of the State (4.05% relative to 8.22%).

The following map, which is taken from the Statistical Yearbook of Ireland (CSO, 2012), shows percentage population change between 2006 and 2011 in each local authority area in the State. Almost all local authorities have experienced population increases, with only Limerick and Cork Cities experiencing a net decline. Growth was also below average in the areas covered by Galway and Dublin City Councils. Irish cities have experienced considerable demographic expansions in their suburbs since the 1990s. Thus, while the populations of urban cores may not have grown, the total urban population in Ireland has expanded over recent decades. This map also shows however, that Kerry distinguishes itself as the only local authority area outside the aforementioned city cores to experience less than 5% population growth.

Fig. 1.3: Percentage Population Change in All Local Authority Areas, 1991 – 2011

Source: CSO, 2012

The influence of the Cork Gateway on the demographics of the South‐West Region is very significant as the following graph shows. While its urban core has declined demographically, Cork County’s demographic performance is stronger than that of the region as a whole, while Kerry’s lags behind. The population of Cork County has grown by 50.14% since 1981, while Kerry’s has increased by



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18.52%1 and the South‐West Region has grown by 26.48%. Indeed, in each of the inter‐censal periods since 1981, Kerry’s population growth has lagged behind the regional average.

Fig. 1.4: Population Levels in the South West Region, 1981‐2011, where 1981 = 0 (reference year).

1986 1991 1996 2002 2006 2011‐20

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Cork CountyIrelandCork City and CountySouth West RegionKerryCork City

The overall demographic picture in Kerry is one of slow consolidation (recovery from the overall population decline experienced up to the 1970s) and below average growth since 1991. There are, however, very considerable spatial variations within the County in terms of population change, as the following series of maps shows (see overleaf). In demographic terms, the dominant spatial patterns in Kerry since 1991 have been characterised by:

Suburbanisation of Tralee and Killarney, such that the growth of these towns is mainly in the suburbs. Indeed, many neighbourhoods in both urban cores have lost population since 2002.

Population growth in the peri‐urban fringe and an expanding commuter zone that extends from Lixnaw in the north to Muckross in the south and along an east‐west axis from Rathmore to Glenbeigh. This growth is urban‐driven and is associated with rural to urban commuting.

Population decline and persistent demographic weaknesses in the Iveragh Peninsula, most of Beara, rural areas to the north of Listowel and in Sliabh Luachra / Western Duhallow.

Increasing population densities in the fringes and immediate hinterlands (within 10km) of Tralee, Killarney, Killorglin and Dingle / Daingean Uí Chúis.

General population growth around Kenmare, although not within the immediate environs of the town.

Recent demographic expansion in both Listowel and Castleisland but less so in their traditional service areas / hinterlands, as both towns are increasingly coming within Tralee’s commuter zone and growth is largely confined to areas between these towns and Tralee, while areas to the east and north (of both towns) are declining.

Population decline in Cahersiveen and Sneem, associated with persistent structural weaknesses in the Iveragh Peninsula characterised by marginal farming, an ageing population, youth out‐migration and a lack of external investment that is required to diversify the rural economy.

1 Kerry’s population declined during the 1980s – from 122,770 in 1981 to 121,894 in 1991.



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These trends of suburbanisation, expanding commuter zones and ongoing rural decline beyond the urban reach have become more pronounced since 2002, indicating that instead of driving regional growth, as had been envisaged in the National Spatial Strategy (2002 – 2020), the Tralee – Killarney Hub, has functioned more like an old‐fashioned growth pole, rather than a polycentric networked space.

The following cartogram2 presents the actual distribution by ED (Electoral Division) of Kerry’s population. The map shows the demographic significance of The Tralee Rural ED i.e. the ED that surrounds the Tralee Urban ED, and includes areas that have experienced considerable demographic expansion since 1991, including Manor, Dromthacker, Ballinorig and Mounthawk. Growth in these suburban areas has been such over the past twenty years that Tralee as a local government area (up to the dissolution of Tralee Town Council) was significantly under‐bounded. A similar observation may be made in respect of the significance of the population in the Killarney Rural ED. Villages with direct road links to Tralee and / or Killarney also feature strongly on the map, and include Ardfert, Ballyheigue and Lixnaw (in the case of Tralee) and Rathmore (in the case of Killarney).

Fig. 1.5: Population Distribution (by ED) in County Kerry in 2011

2 A cartogram is a map with presents a particular dataset / variable. The boundaries of the areas shown reflect the data / variable (in this case, total number of persons) rather than the physical surface area of the areas in question.



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The trend towards suburbanisation can also be observed in Dingle, in that the population of the Na Gleannta ED (i.e. areas just outside the town boundary) exceeds that of Dingle Town. Other significant areas of population include those along the Tralee – Killarney axis, such as Kilcummin and Molahiffe (Firies – Farranfore). The cartogram also shows the importance of Listowel and Castleisland as Kerry’s third and fourth largest towns respectively. Killorglin and Milltown represent significant and growing urban centres, while the Iveragh peninsula is clearly the least populous part of Kerry.

The absolute numbers presented in the cartogram are the product, inter alia, of population change over the past two decades. The following map presents population change at ED level since 1981 (fig. 1.6), 1991 (fig. 1.7) and 2002 (fig. 1.8). The maps confirm the contrast between the areas of high population growth – in the immediate environs of Tralee and Killarney and along an axis between the hub towns and Killorglin ‐ and the areas of population decline in the more rural parts of Kerry.



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Fig. 1.6: Percentage Population Change in County Kerry (at ED Level) 1981 – 2011



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These ED‐level maps show the mixed demographic performances of various parts of the County over recent decades. As the previous maps show, population growth dominates across a Central Kerry Axis based on the three urban centres of Tralee, Killarney and Killorglin. The most dramatic population growth has occurred in the commuter catchment areas surrounding these towns. In Tralee’s case, this zone extends northwards to Ballyheigue and Lixnaw – mainly along secondary roads. Killarney is driving population growth along the N72 towards Rathmore and Millstreet and in the villages and townlands to its north. Killorglin is driving growth in Milltown, Faha and Castlemaine, and to some extent around Glenbeigh and Caragh Lake. Thus, a considerable peri‐urban zone has emerged in Central Kerry.

In contrast, population decline and low levels of growth persist in more rural and peripheral parts of Kerry. The bulk of the Iveragh and Beara peninsulas have been suffering population decline for several decades, and it is evident that these downward trends are continuing. The EDs with the highest levels of population decline (all in excess of ‐15% between 1981 and 2011) are located in Central Iveragh – from Glencar through to Bealach Oisín and westwards to Emlaghmore and Drommid. These rural areas are demographically very vulnerable, and as agriculture can no longer be expected to sustain the rural economy, investment in the economic diversification of these communities and the promotion of A Living Countryside, in accordance with Cork and Salzburg Declarations (1996 and 2003 respectively) needs to be advanced.

Similar observations may be made in respect of Sliabh Luachra / Western Duhallow and the Barony of Iraghticonnor (broadly corresponding to the rural hinterland of Listowel – extending in an arc from Moyvane to Tarbert and through to Asdee). Unlike Iveragh and Beara, these areas in North and East Kerry are much better connected. They are within 80 minutes’ drive of employment centres on the outskirts of Cork (for Sliabh Luachra / Western Duhallow) and Limerick (for Iraghticonnor). Nevertheless, they have been adversely affected by the contraction of employment in agriculture over recent decades, and unlike peninsular Kerry, they lack the landscape resources to enable them to develop a strong tourism industry. Notwithstanding their small tourism base heretofore, they have some potential in that respect, particularly in terms of cultural and heritage tourism. As later sections of this report show, these rural areas are characterised by a high level of dependence on manufacturing employment, and while industry is important to their future development, there is a need for investment in the tertiary sector, creative industries and knowledge economy in North and East Kerry, so as to stem the outflow of young and educated people.

The contrasting demographic fortunes between peri‐urban Kerry on the one hand and rural and peripheral Kerry on the other hand are associated with the economic and demographic performance of Kerry’s main towns. Firstly, in the peri‐urban area that dominates across Central Kerry, population growth has been largely urban generated. The expansion of services and amenities in Killarney and Tralee, the growth in employment in Killorglin coupled with an increase in the supply of building land have driven population growth. Secondly, the decline in the economic base and population in other parts of Kerry has had a negative impact on the County’s market towns, particularly Cahersiveen, Listowel and Castleisland. All three are suffering due to the stagnation and / or decline of their rural hinterlands, and efforts to rejuvenate these towns need to focus on developing them from the outside in i.e. by strengthening their rural hinterlands. The tourist industry has sheltered Kenmare and Dingle / Daingean Uí Chúis from the negative effects of rural re‐



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structuring, but these two towns would also benefit from rural renewal in the Beara and Corcadh Dhuibhne peninsulas.The patterns presented in the final of the three population change maps (2002 – 2011) indicate that over the past decade some parts of rural and peninsular Kerry, which had been losing population over previous decades, have stabilised demographically. This is due in part to their having a low population base in 2002. However, it may also be due to dividends accruing from investment in rural development since the commencement of LEADER in 1991.

As the following table shows, there are also variations in the demographic fortunes of Kerry’s towns and villages. The table lists the census towns3 in County Kerry, their population levels since 1991 and inter‐censal population change.

Table 1.1: Population Levels and Change in Kerry’s Towns and Villages 1991 ‐ 2011Population % of

Kerry's Population

% Change 1991 ‐ 2011

% Change 02 to 11Town / Village 1991 1996 2002 2011

Tralee 17,862 19,950 21,987 23,693 16.28 32.64 7.76Killarney 9,950 12,011 13,137 14,219 9.77 42.90 8.24Listowel 3,597 3,656 3,999 4,832 3.32 34.33 20.83Castleisland 2,207 2,233 2,162 2,513 1.73 13.86 16.23Kenmare 1,366 1,420 1,844 2,175 1.49 59.22 17.95Killorglin 1,229 1,278 1,359 2,082 1.43 69.41 53.20Dainean Uí Ch. 1,272 1,536 1,828 1,965 1.35 54.48 7.49Ballybunion 1,346 1,470 1,329 1,354 0.93 0.59 1.88Cahersiveen 1,229 1,250 1,272 1,168 0.80 ‐4.96 ‐8.18Milltown 341 332 332 838 0.58 145.75 152.41Ardfert 677 648 691 800 0.55 18.17 15.77Rathmore 505 470 450 778 0.53 54.06 72.89Lixnaw 260 263 248 634 0.44 143.85 155.65Ballyheigue 658 679 626 628 0.43 ‐4.56 0.32Tarbert 679 605 548 551 0.38 ‐18.85 0.55Ballyduff 670 649 614 532 0.37 ‐20.60 ‐13.36Fenit 403 390 433 527 0.36 30.77 21.71Waterville 463 466 538 465 0.32 0.43 ‐13.57Spa 398 394 424 460 0.32 15.58 8.49Ballylongford 506 499 405 418 0.29 ‐17.39 3.21Abbeydorney 179 159 218 412 0.28 130.17 88.99Moyvane 365 370 326 401 0.28 9.86 23.01Annascaul 215 203 202 299 0.21 39.07 48.02Glenbeigh 230 251 330 285 0.20 23.91 ‐13.64Causeway 233 261 251 264 0.18 13.30 5.18Sneem 292 296 285 258 0.18 ‐11.64 ‐9.47Gneevegullia 239 230 239 256 0.18 7.11 7.11Castlegregory 159 163 186 243 0.17 52.83 30.65Beaufort 153 228 0.16 49.02Knightstown 204 191 172 215 0.15 5.39 25.00

3 Please note that in this table the populations of all towns include their suburbs and / or immediate environs. Thus, the geography is not restricted to ED boundaries, and the delineations have been revised and updated between censuses, so as to accurately correspond with the urban footprint of each town.



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Kilgarvan 171 175 156 181 0.12 5.85 16.03Cromane 157 136 125 115 0.08 ‐26.75 ‐8.00

As the table shows, Tralee and Killarney together now account for just over 25% of the total Kerry population. Due to suburbanisation, particularly during the period 1991 to 2002, the cumulative population growth rate in both towns exceeded the county and State averages. Similar observations may be made in respect of Kenmare. Population growth in Listowel and Castleisland has consistently lagged behind that of Tralee and Killarney. The positive demographic performance of other population centres is largely associated with their connectivity to Tralee – Killarney and to the supply of building land during the 1990s and 2000s, rather than to any significant economic changes or external investments. Among the towns and villages in this category are Abbeydorney and Lixnaw, both of which have more than doubled in size.

The table also shows that a number of towns have performed very strongly over the past twenty‐five years. Among the strongest performers are Killorglin (+69.4%) and Dingle / Daingean Uí Chúis (+54.55%). Their demographic expansion has been less associated with that of the Tralee – Killarney Hub. As later sections of this report show, their growth has been driven instead by distinctive local factors. Dingle / Daingean Uí Chúis is firmly established as an attractive tourist destination, while Killorglin has grown in significance as an employment centre in pharmachem and financial services, and the town has successfully retained FDI. Killorglin’s economic growth is one of the main reasons for the population increase experienced by Milltown (+146%) since 1991. The following graph presents the levels of population change in Kerry’s towns and villages since 1991.

Fig. 1.9: Percentage Population Change in Census Towns and Villages in Kerry, 1991 ‐ 2011

Cromane

Ballyduff

Tarbert

Ballylongford

Sneem

Cahersiveen

Ballyheigue

Waterville

Ballybunion

Knightstown

Kilgarvan

Gneevgullia

Moyvane

Causeway

Castleisland

Spa

Ardfert

Glenbeigh

Fenit

Tralee

Listow

elAnnascaul

Killarney

Castlegregory

Rathm

ore

Dainean Uí Chúis

Kenmare

Killorglin

Abbeydorn

eyLixnaw

Milltown

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The graph clearly demonstrates the very high levels of population growth in the commuter villages of Milltown, Lixnaw, Abbeydorney, Castlegregory and Rathmore. Population growth in Fenit, Ardfert and The Spa is also associated with commuting to and from Tralee. Given their population increases



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and potential pressures on infrastructure, it is important that agencies invest in improving local facilities and enhancing the quality of life for citizens in these communities. The provision and maintenance of childcare, youth amenities and reliable public transport in these villages are essential.

The data presented in the graph and the preceding table also show that some towns and villages in Kerry have not performed well. Indeed, some such as Cahersiveen and Sneem have lost population since 1991, and of the ten largest urban centres in Kerry, Cahersiveen is the only one to have lost population. Waterville’s population has remained stagnant, although it is a very significant tourist destination. The demographic weakness of these rural towns is associated with rural re‐structuring (decline in agriculture and the rural economy). Moreover, their experience suggests that while tourism is hugely important to the rural economy, a more diversified economic base is required in order to enable Iveragh to regain its demographic strength. While there may well be several extraneous variables, the contrasting demographic fortunes of Dingle / Daingean Uí Chúis and the towns in Iveragh lead one to question if demographic change is linked to the tourism models that pertain. This is explored further in the economic profile presented later in this report. Dingle and Corcadh Dhuibhne have become popular destinations for independent travellers, especially continental Europeans who opt to spend several days there, while Iveragh is still largely associated with transient North American coach visitors, who tend to base themselves in Killarney and make day trips around ‘the Ring of Kerry.’ That said, a number of LEADER‐supported enterprises have, in recent years, brought about an expansion of the Iveragh offerings and accommodation base, and the Glenbeigh to Valentia Greenway represents an important advance.

The following three maps present population change in the towns and villages in Kerry over inter‐censal periods. They present spatial patterns that are very similar to those in the preceding ED‐level maps, and underscore the importance of the relationship between town and countryside.

The striking levels of population growth in Milltown, Abbeydorney and Lixnaw and throughout the commuter catchment area of Tralee is clearly visible over the past thirty years. While population inflows have generally been positive for these rural and small town communities, they have not been without challenges, and public transport provision for commuters is not as well developed in Kerry as it is in other advanced OECD economies. It is noteworthy that no efforts have been made to re‐open the Tralee to Fenit or Tralee to Listowel railway lines. The success of commuter rail lines in Cork and elsewhere could serve as a template for Tralee. While several villages have experienced population increases, they have not gained a commensurate level of public service provision. Indeed, some villages have witnessed contraction in public service provision, and they currently struggle to maintain essential services such as post offices.

In contrast to the growth experienced in the expanding peri‐urban commuter zone centred on the Tralee – Killarney – Killorglin axis, towns and villages in other parts of Kerry exhibit a much weaker demographic performance. Several villages, particularly in Iveragh and north of Listowel have experienced population decline. The structural weaknesses in Iveragh have been documented already. However, the situation in North Kerry villages beyond the immediate Tralee commuter zone has generally received less attention. As the previous table shows, in 1991 Ballybunion was the sixth largest urban centre in Kerry. Today, it has slipped to eight position, having been overtaken by Dingle and Killorglin. Ballybunion’s population level has remained almost static in over twenty years despite its relatively high profile nationally and internationally. Ballybunion’s tourism offering may



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not have adapted sufficiently to contemporary trends. The town / village of Tarbert also merits specific mention, as it is the medium‐sized centre with the single largest population loss since 1991.



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Fig. 1.10: Population Change in Towns and Villages in County Kerry, 1986 – 2011



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While the overall populations of the larger towns in Kerry have grown over recent decades, it is worth examining the spatial patterns in respect of Tralee and Killarney. As the following table shows, the geography of their growth has been uneven.

Table 1.2: Population Levels and Change in Killarney, Tralee and Environs (ED Level) 1981 – 2011

ED Name1981

Population1991

Population2002

Population2011

Population

Population Change 2002 ‐ 2011

% Change 2002 ‐ 2011

Population Change 1991 to 2011

% Change 1991 to 2011

Population Change 1981 to 2011

% Change 1981 to 2011

KILLARNEY URBAN 7,658 7,231 9,395 9,663 268 2.85 2,432 33.63 2,005 26.18KILLARNEY RURAL 3,724 4,574 5,913 6,472 559 9.45 1,898 41.50 2,748 73.79

TRALEE URBAN DISTRICT 6,085 6,085 6,311 4,885 ‐1,426 ‐22.60 ‐1,200 ‐19.72 ‐1,200 ‐19.72TRALEE RURAL (PT.) 11,155 11,928 15,433 17,952 2,519 16.32 6,024 50.50 6,797 60.93

The table shows that in Killarney, the population has grown almost three times faster on the outskirts of the town than in the town itself. Meanwhile in Tralee, the town core has actually lost population. Indeed, as the following set of maps shows, Tralee is experiencing what is known as the ‘doughnut effect’ or a hollowing‐out of the urban core.

Mention has already been made of the trend toward suburbanisation in both towns, which if allowed to persist further will have considerable negative economic and environmental consequences. The following maps show the population change since 2002 at SA4 (Small Area) Level in both towns. In both cases, the boundary of the Urban Electoral Division is presented in blue, so as to enable readers to pinpoint locations and to identify similarities and differences between the urban cores and the towns’ environs.

The first two maps deal with population change in Killarney and its environs. They show that between 2002 and 2006, Killarney’s suburbs experienced considerable demographic expansion, while the area covered by the Urban District Council (inside the blue line) had mixed fortunes, with some neighbourhoods growing in population – mainly due to the in‐migration of foreign nationals – and other adjoining neighbourhoods contracting. Since 2006, and particularly since the advent of the recession and austerity, many foreign nationals have left Killarney, as they, like many young Irish people, seek employment overseas. As the second map shows, almost all parts of the town have experienced population decline.

The corresponding spatial patterns in Tralee are more complex. Between 2002 and 2006, the town exhibited a strong pattern of suburbanisation. The suburbs grew while older more established communities in the town centre such as those along and adjacent to the North Circular Road and Balloonagh went into decline. This hollowing‐out of the town centre paralleled the development of retail parks and new housing estates, including student accommodation, on the outskirts of Tralee. Since the advent of the recession and austerity, the spatial patterns in Tralee have become more complex, as population decline is now affecting a more extensive area across the town, including some of its suburbs.

4 The Small Area Population Statistics (SAPS) of the 2011 Census of Population were released at the level of 18,488 Small Areas (SAs) – up from 15,383 in the 2006 Census. This delineation provides a more refined census geography that was the case with Electoral Divisions of which there were just over 3,400. SAs are standardised in size, with a minimum of 50 households and a mean of just under 100. The ability to distil beyond EDs –which could range in population from under 100 to over 32,000 – marks a major advance in enabling a more micro‐level analysis of spatial patterns.



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Fig. 1.12: Percentage Population Change in Killarney Urban and Rural EDs at SA Level, 2002 – 2006



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Fig. 1.13: Percentage Population Change in Killarney Urban and Rural EDs at SA Level, 2002 – 2011



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Fig. 1.13: Percentage Population Change in Tralee Urban and Rural EDs at SA Level, 2002 – 2006



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Fig. 1.13: Percentage Population Change in Tralee Urban and Rural EDs at SA Level, 2002 – 2011



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