despite higher world demand, u.s. exports to decline in ... · pakistan 2007/08 0 0 0 250 30 100 0...

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Circular Series FOP 03 - 09 March 2009

Despite Higher World Demand, U.S. Exports to Decline in 2009/10 World Production, Consumption, and Prices

2004/05 through 2009/10 proj.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09est.

2009/10proj.

mil.

bal

es

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

cent

s/lb

s.

Production Consumption A-index (FE)

U.S. Share of World Exports2000/01 through 2009/10 proj.

20

25

30

35

40

45

perc

ent o

f wor

ld e

xpor

ts200

0/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

The USDA outlook for 2009/10 shows that tighter stocks in the United States coupled with greater competition from other exporters will reduce both U.S. exports and share of total world trade.

In February, USDA released its 2009/10 cotton outlook. That outlook was based on February’s WASDE report and current macro-economic forecasts that projected world GDP would decline through the third quarter of 2009 and begin a recovery thereafter.

Based on this, world consumption was projected to by 2 percent; the rate of recovery is expected to be slower than most post recession recoveries due to the global nature of the crisis. World production, lead by China, was projected to decline by 2 percent, the lowest since 2003/04. As a result, world stocks were expected to tighten.

In China, a 10 percent drop in production, coupled with a moderate recovery in consumption was expected to increase import demand dramatically, which should help drive up total world trade by around 15 percent.

For 2008/09, stocks rose dramatically for major exporters, primarily India and Central Asia, which were unable to quickly respond to the steep decline in prices. Consequently, these countries will have to aggressively market their 2008 cotton as the new crop moves into the system. In the United Sates, stocks have fallen, as the large drop in production more than offset lower exports. As a result, the February outlook projected that the U.S. share of world trade would fall in 2009/10.

The USDA outlook forecasted U.S. planted area at 8.5 million acres in 2009, the lowest since 1983. Relatively higher prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat in combination with higher input prices that affect cotton more than most other crops are the primary reasons for the lower area. However, production was expected to be the unchanged from 2008 as yields are expected to return to trend.

USDA’s next projections for 2009/10 will be published in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate on May 12, 2009.

Cotton: World Markets and Trade

Source: USDA Cotton Outlook Feb. 26 2009 http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2009 Speeches/Speeches/Cotton.pdf

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Working Statistics)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg Year Area Harvested

Beginning Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom. Cons.

Ending Stocks

Argentina

-10000100000 2008/09

Australia

25-25-2500000-1 2006/07

50-25-250000250 2007/08

125-25-2500050504 2008/09

Bangladesh

0-1000-1000-100000 2008/09

Bolivia

1-100-10-5-14000 2007/08

1-100-10-5-15010 2008/09

Brazil

100-1000-10000000 2008/09

China, Peoples Republic of

300-5000-5000500-70000 2008/09

Czech Republic

5000-50000 2008/09

El Salvador

0-150-150-15000 2008/09

Greece

25-250-2500000 2008/09

Hong Kong

-10-400-400-50000 2008/09

India

00000000-111 2007/08

700-2000-200-5000000 2008/09

Italy

-10-750-7510-75000 2008/09

Mexico

65-500-5000150-4 2008/09

Mozambique

50001001500 2007/08

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis

March 2009

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Working Statistics) (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)


Beginning Stocks


Ending Stocks

5000100105-28 2008/09

Pakistan

120100010030250000 2007/08

-305000-25-250-2001200 2008/09

Portugal

-10-400-400-50000 2008/09

South Africa, Republic of

5-250-250-10-100-6 2008/09

Spain

0-150-1500-1500 2008/09

Sudan

-1000000-1005 2008/09

Taiwan

-25-1000-1000-125000 2008/09

Tajikistan, Republic of

25000-250000 2008/09

Tanzania, United Republic of

-45-100-1000-5500 2008/09

Thailand

0-500-500-50000 2008/09

Turkey

25000-250000 2008/09

Turkmenistan

250002505000 2008/09

Ukraine

0-100-100-10000 2008/09

United States

-400-10545-150500-5000 2008/09

Uzbekistan, Republic of

250000-2500000 2008/09

Venezuela

500005000 2008/09


March 2009

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Working Statistics) (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)


Beginning Stocks


Ending Stocks

World

World

25-25-2500000-1 2006/07

17665-2590352361525-111 2007/08

836-1,49520-1,515-280-250-865176-29 2008/09


March 2009

Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 MT)

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08Feb

2008/09Mar

2008/09

Production none

6,597 China, Peoples Republic 6,183 7,729 8,056 7,947 7,795

4,137 India 4,148 4,746 5,356 5,008 5,008

5,062 United States 5,201 4,700 4,182 2,838 2,838

2,425 Pakistan 2,213 2,155 1,938 2,003 1,960

1,285 Brazil 1,023 1,524 1,602 1,263 1,263

1,132 Uzbekistan, Republic of 1,208 1,165 1,197 1,089 1,089

904 Turkey 773 827 675 501 501

4,898 Other 4,632 3,713 3,241 3,195 3,203

26,440 Total 25,382 26,560 26,247 23,843 23,655

USE Dom. Consumption none


3,222 India 3,636 3,941 3,984 3,745 3,701

2,286 Pakistan 2,504 2,722 2,722 2,504 2,504

1,546 Turkey 1,502 1,589 1,306 1,023 1,023

938 Brazil 969 996 1,002 958 936

1,457 United States 1,278 1,074 1,004 849 816

408 Bangladesh 479 540 599 621 599

468 Indonesia 474 474 484 435 435

457 Thailand 446 425 425 419 408

457 Mexico 457 457 435 403 392

4,035 Other 3,785 3,771 3,551 3,332 3,252

23,658 Total 25,328 26,875 26,725 24,522 24,192

Imports none


403 Bangladesh 482 540 610 621 599

382 Pakistan 352 502 904 599 544

743 Turkey 762 877 712 468 468

479 Indonesia 479 479 501 435 435

497 Thailand 412 415 420 425 414

394 Mexico 380 295 333 283 283

148 Vietnam 153 196 207 229 229

316 Russian Federation 310 305 261 207 207

292 Korea, Republic of 220 233 212 191 191

2,238 Other 1,937 1,999 1,663 1,515 1,439

7,283 Total 9,685 8,144 8,332 6,387 6,333

Exports none

3,143 United States 3,821 2,833 2,973 2,504 2,613

144 India 751 994 1,531 762 653

860 Uzbekistan, Republic of 1,045 980 958 708 653

339 Brazil 429 283 486 490 490

435 Australia 628 464 265 250 250

212 Burkina 305 294 169 174 174

255 Greece 294 272 229 142 142

82 Turkmenistan 120 152 174 109 114

136 Benin 103 109 109 93 93

136 Kazakhstan, Republic of 192 189 115 82 82

1,882 Other 2,019 1,507 1,364 1,074 1,062

7,623 Total 9,707 8,077 8,373 6,387 6,326

Ending Stocks none


1,908 India 1,756 1,669 1,608 2,206 2,359

1,196 United States 1,321 2,064 2,187 1,676 1,589

1,063 Brazil 787 1,177 1,361 1,247 1,268

1,077 Pakistan 1,069 953 1,002 986 920

283 Uzbekistan, Republic of 272 261 283 435 489

390 Turkey 376 425 424 326 332

3,240 Other 3,057 2,658 2,393 2,552 2,588

13,160 Total 13,545 13,678 13,613 13,437 13,619


March 2009

Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 Bales)

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08Feb

2008/09Mar

2008/09

Production none

5,900 Brazil 4,700 7,000 7,360 5,800 5,800


19,000 India 19,050 21,800 24,600 23,000 23,000

11,138 Pakistan 10,165 9,900 8,900 9,200 9,000

4,150 Turkey 3,550 3,800 3,100 2,300 2,300

23,251 United States 23,890 21,588 19,207 13,036 13,036


22,498 Other 21,274 17,052 14,884 14,674 14,709

121,437 Total 116,579 121,990 120,551 109,510 108,645

USE Dom. Consumption none

1,875 Bangladesh 2,200 2,480 2,750 2,850 2,750

4,310 Brazil 4,452 4,573 4,600 4,400 4,300


14,800 India 16,700 18,100 18,300 17,200 17,000

2,150 Indonesia 2,175 2,175 2,225 2,000 2,000

2,100 Mexico 2,100 2,100 2,000 1,850 1,800

10,500 Pakistan 11,500 12,500 12,500 11,500 11,500

2,100 Thailand 2,050 1,950 1,950 1,925 1,875

7,100 Turkey 6,900 7,300 6,000 4,700 4,700

6,691 United States 5,871 4,935 4,609 3,900 3,750

18,533 Other 17,382 17,320 16,310 15,303 14,938

108,659 Total 116,330 123,433 122,744 112,628 111,113

Imports none

1,850 Bangladesh 2,214 2,480 2,800 2,850 2,750


2,200 Indonesia 2,200 2,200 2,300 2,000 2,000

1,343 Korea, Republic of 1,011 1,068 975 875 875

1,810 Mexico 1,744 1,353 1,530 1,300 1,300

1,756 Pakistan 1,615 2,305 4,150 2,750 2,500

1,450 Russian Federation 1,425 1,400 1,200 950 950

2,282 Thailand 1,892 1,905 1,928 1,950 1,900

3,414 Turkey 3,501 4,029 3,268 2,150 2,150

680 Vietnam 703 900 950 1,050 1,050

10,279 Other 8,895 9,179 7,637 6,960 6,610

33,449 Total 44,484 37,407 38,268 29,335 29,085

Exports none

1,998 Australia 2,884 2,129 1,219 1,150 1,150

625 Benin 475 500 500 425 425

1,557 Brazil 1,972 1,300 2,231 2,250 2,250

975 Burkina 1,400 1,350 775 800 800

1,170 Greece 1,350 1,250 1,050 650 650

660 India 3,450 4,565 7,030 3,500 3,000

625 Kazakhstan, Republic of 883 869 530 375 375

375 Turkmenistan 550 700 800 500 525

14,436 United States 17,549 13,010 13,653 11,500 12,000


8,643 Other 9,271 6,923 6,267 4,933 4,878

35,014 Total 44,584 37,096 38,455 29,333 29,053

Ending Stocks none

4,882 Brazil 3,616 5,408 6,251 5,726 5,826


8,764 India 8,064 7,664 7,384 10,134 10,834

4,945 Pakistan 4,912 4,375 4,600 4,530 4,225

1,790 Turkey 1,725 1,951 1,949 1,499 1,524

5,495 United States 6,069 9,479 10,044 7,700 7,300


14,882 Other 14,042 12,210 10,992 11,722 11,888

60,444 Total 62,212 62,821 62,522 61,713 62,549


March 2009

Table 04 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last yearMBalesPercent

Yield(Kilograms per hectare)

Mar 2006/07 MBales

Country / Region

Area(Million hectares)

Production(Million 480 lb. bales)

Change in Production

2006/07Prel.

2007/08 Feb FebPrel.

2007/08 MarPrel.

2007/08 Feb Mar Percent2008/09 Proj.2008/09 Proj. 2008/09 Proj.

2006/07

34.71World -9.88-11.91-0.79-0.87108.6533.09 31.06 31.03 765.00 793.00 768.00 762.00 121.99 120.55 109.51

5.15United States -32.13-6.170.000.0013.044.25 3.13 3.13 912.00 985.00 907.00 907.00 21.59 19.21 13.04

29.55Total Foreign -5.66-5.74-0.90-0.8795.6128.84 27.93 27.90 740.00 765.00 752.00 746.00 100.40 101.34 96.47

none

Western Hemisphere

1.09 Brazil -21.20-1.560.000.005.801.08 0.89 0.89 1,393.0 1,488.0 1,427.0 1,427.0 7.00 7.36 5.80

0.12 Mexico -0.81-0.012.500.020.620.11 0.11 0.10 1,231.0 1,227.0 1,244.0 1,326.0 0.65 0.62 0.60

0.40 Argentina -7.54-0.050.000.000.650.31 0.30 0.30 435.00 494.00 472.00 472.00 0.80 0.70 0.65

0.13 Paraguay -25.00-0.030.000.000.080.06 0.06 0.06 279.00 363.00 272.00 272.00 0.16 0.10 0.08

0.09 Peru 0.000.000.000.000.300.09 0.09 0.09 726.00 726.00 726.00 726.00 0.30 0.30 0.30

0.05 Colombia 2.600.010.000.000.200.04 0.04 0.04 862.00 995.00 997.00 997.00 0.20 0.19 0.20

Africa

0.70 Burkina 25.930.180.000.000.850.40 0.44 0.44 404.00 367.00 421.00 421.00 1.30 0.68 0.85

0.46 Mali -22.22-0.100.000.000.350.28 0.19 0.19 375.00 345.00 401.00 401.00 0.79 0.45 0.35

0.21 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.230.20 0.19 0.19 317.00 245.00 258.00 258.00 0.31 0.23 0.23

0.20 Cameroon 19.050.040.000.000.250.14 0.16 0.16 397.00 327.00 340.00 340.00 0.37 0.21 0.25

0.23 Benin -8.00-0.040.000.000.460.23 0.21 0.21 448.00 465.00 489.00 489.00 0.48 0.50 0.46

0.25 Chad 5.260.010.000.000.200.18 0.18 0.18 174.00 230.00 242.00 242.00 0.20 0.19 0.20

0.07 Togo -27.27-0.030.000.000.080.07 0.07 0.07 268.00 368.00 249.00 249.00 0.08 0.11 0.08

0.04 Senegal 7.950.010.000.000.100.04 0.05 0.05 495.00 435.00 460.00 460.00 0.10 0.09 0.10

0.25 Egypt -52.50-0.530.000.000.480.24 0.13 0.13 863.00 907.00 796.00 796.00 0.98 1.00 0.48

0.35 Zimbabwe -3.16-0.020.000.000.460.38 0.38 0.38 311.00 272.00 264.00 264.00 0.50 0.48 0.46

0.38 Nigeria 4.440.020.000.000.470.40 0.40 0.40 229.00 248.00 259.00 259.00 0.40 0.45 0.47

Asia Oceania

6.00 China, Peoples -3.24-1.20-1.92-0.7035.806.20 6.00 6.00 1,288.0 1,299.0 1,325.0 1,299.0 35.50 37.00 36.50

9.17 India -6.50-1.600.000.0023.009.44 9.35 9.35 518.00 567.00 536.00 536.00 21.80 24.60 23.00

3.25 Pakistan 1.120.10-2.17-0.209.003.00 2.90 2.90 663.00 646.00 691.00 676.00 9.90 8.90 9.20

0.20 Kazakhstan, Republic -36.00-0.230.000.000.400.20 0.16 0.16 698.00 680.00 544.00 544.00 0.63 0.63 0.40

0.26 Tajikistan, Republic of -20.83-0.130.000.000.480.25 0.23 0.23 551.00 523.00 450.00 450.00 0.65 0.60 0.48

0.60 Turkmenistan 3.850.053.850.051.350.60 0.60 0.60 435.00 472.00 472.00 490.00 1.20 1.30 1.30

1.43 Uzbekistan, Republic -9.09-0.500.000.005.001.45 1.42 1.42 815.00 826.00 767.00 767.00 5.35 5.50 5.00

0.63 Turkey -25.81-0.800.000.002.300.52 0.38 0.38 1,313.0 1,298.0 1,318.0 1,318.0 3.80 3.10 2.30

0.14 Australia 125.810.783.700.051.400.07 0.16 0.16 2,041.0 2,077.0 1,837.0 1,859.0 1.35 0.62 1.35

0.21 Syria -17.39-0.200.000.000.950.20 0.17 0.17 1,038.0 1,252.0 1,217.0 1,217.0 1.02 1.15 0.95

0.30 Burma, Union of 0.000.000.000.000.270.30 0.30 0.30 196.00 196.00 196.00 196.00 0.27 0.27 0.27

Europe

0.33 Greece -16.98-0.230.000.001.100.32 0.25 0.25 924.00 916.00 958.00 958.00 1.40 1.33 1.10

2.03Others 11.310.31-2.59-0.083.012.05 2.14 2.11 316.00 287.00 315.00 311.00 2.94 2.71 3.09

Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation.


March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2008/09

Area Harvested

ExportsLossUseTotal Supply

ImportsProductionBeginning Stocks

Country

85 0709801350 Afghanistan 15

1 035423471 Albania 0

0 020272070 Algeria 0

5 0510322 Angola 3

650 97751,579150779300 Argentina 35

0 012110 Armenia, Republic 0

1,400 -75501,9800580164 Australia 1,150

0 0405540150 Austria 2

110 06520909951 Azerbaijan, 50

0 0758975140 Bahrain 0

60 102,7503,3942,75058442 Bangladesh 0

0 030353050 Belarus 0

0 0508975140 Belgium-Luxembour 30

460 0105980138205 Benin 425

48 070113254020 Bolivia 5

5,800 -1504,30012,2261756,251885 Brazil 2,250

10 0607350132 Bulgaria 0

850 041,0520202440 Burkina 800

270 0180343073300 Burma, Union of 90

0 020262060 Cambodia 0

250 045315065160 Cameroon 200

0 0253220120 Canada 0

12 05160425 Central African 5

200 015263063180 Chad 150

0 0607860180 Chile 0

35,800 -2,50046,50062,8047,00020,0046,000 China, Peoples 100

197 54004942108743 Colombia 5

15 0303515530 Congo, Democratic 0

1 023111 Costa Rica 0

225 0503980173190 Cote d'Ivoire 200

0 034310 Croatia 0

4 045484044 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0

0 07510590150 Czech Republic 10

0 000000 Denmark 0


March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2008/09 (Continued)

Area Harvested



Country

3 0810524 Dominican Republic 0

9 0759165173 Ecuador 0

475 138001,586450661130 Egypt 250

1 0135169135331 El Salvador 0

0 015231580 Estonia 0

85 07510602160 Ethiopia 10

0 08010790170 France 10

0 0200288250380 Germany 50

23 015310815 Ghana 10

1,100 502251,51020390250 Greece 650

3 0125140120172 Guatemala 0

14 00180414 Guinea 15

5 01011517 Haiti 0

4 023291962 Honduras 0

0 01852891751140 Hong Kong 40

0 010121020 Hungary 0

23,000 017,00030,8344507,3849,350 India 3,000

30 502,0002,4192,0003899 Indonesia 20

450 0620855225180130 Iran 40

30 0100119701920 Iraq 0

0 011100 Ireland 0

50 04895347 Israel 55

0 0300365300650 Italy 20

0 0550638550880 Japan 0

400 05063650186160 Kazakhstan, 375

25 05580401537 Kenya 10

55 01501851003019 Korea, Democratic 0

1 08751,1148752381 Korea, Republic of 5

130 0517204233 Kyrgyzstan, 100

0 034310 Latvia 0

0 034310 Lebanon 0

0 013210 Lithuania 1

1 020252041 Macedonia, 0

60 0507101130 Madagascar 10

130 0522609670 Malawi 115


March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area Harvested



Country

0 0200229200290 Malaysia 0

350 0254670117190 Mali 325

0 0145179145340 Mauritius 0

615 251,8002,8471,300932101 Mexico 150

0 010141040 Moldova, Republic 0

1 0175211175351 Morocco 0

135 010193058168 Mozambique 120

0 010161060 Netherlands 1

10 0112024 Nicaragua 9

5 048035 Niger 1

470 034065950139395 Nigeria 175

9,000 2511,50016,1002,5004,6002,900 Pakistan 350

0 000000 Panama 0

75 03013455460 Paraguay 60

300 052591022538590 Peru 5

10 0607950194 Philippines 0

0 055615560 Poland 0

1 0200253175771 Portugal 2

0 015211560 Romania 1

0 09751,1479501970 Russian Federation 0

95 02012903445 Senegal 75

0 014181440 Serbia and 0

0 00232030 Singapore 20

0 000000 Slovakia 0

0 015211560 Slovenia 1

7 010113112 Somalia 0

40 0210300165959 South Africa, 0

85 050130103550 Spain 60

5 069135 Sri Lanka 0

190 08296010690 Sudan 170

0 000000 Sweden 0

0 025322570 Switzerland 0

950 07251,2440294170 Syria 250

0 08001,0157502650 Taiwan 0

475 0407370262230 Tajikistan, Republic 350


March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area Harvested



Country

570 01658550285510 Tanzania, United 250

15 251,8752,2311,9003168 Thailand 2

80 01512204270 Togo 75

10 08510885132 Tunisia 10

2,300 04,7006,3992,1501,949380 Turkey 175

1,350 04402,0090659600 Turkmenistan 525

100 020160060270 Uganda 75

0 0506450140 Ukraine 0

0 00171520 United Kingdom 15

13,036 353,75023,085510,0443,128 United States 12,000

0 023210 Uruguay 0

5,000 01,0506,29801,2981,420 Uzbekistan, 3,000

60 075105202510 Venezuela 0

28 01,0501,3161,05023813 Vietnam 0

65 025740940 Yemen 40

215 0803750160215 Zambia 125

460 15906310171380 Zimbabwe 325

World

108,645 -2,463111,113200,25229,08562,52231,026 World 29,053


March 2009

(1000 MT)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2008/09

Beginning Stocks

Ending Stocks


ImportsProductionCountry

0 301521193 Afghanistan 3

7 008902 Albania 2

4 004602 Algeria 2

1 101210 Angola 0

33 82169344142170 Argentina 165


0 250-1611431305126 Australia 186

9 0091203 Austria 3

0 11014462422 Azerbaijan, 20

16 00161903 Bahrain 3

599 0259973913127 Bangladesh 138

7 007801 Belarus 1


0 930213010030 Benin 35

5 101525109 Bolivia 8

38 490-339362,6621,2631,361 Brazil 1,268

11 00131623 Bulgaria 3

0 1740122918544 Burkina 54

0 20039755916 Burma, Union of 16

4 004601 Cambodia 1

0 44010695414 Cameroon 15

4 005703 Canada 2


0 3303574414 Chad 21

13 00131704 Chile 4

1,524 22-54410,12413,6747,7954,355 China, Peoples 4,072

46 11871084319 Colombia 18



0 44011874938 Cote d'Ivoire 32

1 001100 Croatia 0

9 00101011 Cuba 1

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


March 2009

(1000 MT)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2008/09 (Continued)

Beginning Stocks

Ending Stocks




14 00162024 Ecuador 3

98 543174345103144 Egypt 114

29 00293707 El Salvador 7

3 003502 Estonia 2

0 201623195 Ethiopia 5

20 20172304 France 4

54 110446308 Germany 8

0 203752 Ghana 1

4 142114932923985 Greece 127

26 00273014 Guatemala 3

0 300431 Guinea 1

1 002210 Haiti 0

4 005611 Honduras 1

38 904063025 Hong Kong 14

2 002300 Hungary 0

98 65303,7016,7135,0081,608 India 2,359

435 411435527785 Indonesia 76

49 901351869839 Iran 42

15 00222674 Iraq 4

0 000000 Ireland 0

1 120119117 Israel 7

65 406579014 Italy 10

120 00120139019 Japan 19

11 820111388740 Kazakhstan, 46

9 20121753 Kenya 3


191 10191243052 Korea, Republic of 51

0 220137289 Kyrgyzstan, 15

1 001100 Latvia 0

1 001100 Lebanon 0


4 004501 Macedonia, 1

0 201115132 Madagascar 2

0 2501492821 Malawi 23


March 2009

(1000 MT)


Beginning Stocks

Ending Stocks



44 00445006 Malaysia 6

0 71051027625 Mali 25

32 00323907 Mauritius 7

283 335392620134203 Mexico 190


38 00384608 Morocco 8

0 2602422913 Mozambique 14



0 001211 Niger 1

11 3807414310230 Nigeria 31

544 7652,5043,5051,9601,002 Pakistan 920

0 000000 Panama 0

1 1307291612 Paraguay 10

49 101141986584 Peru 83


12 00121301 Poland 1

38 004455017 Portugal 11

3 003501 Romania 1

207 00212250043 Russian Federation 37

0 160428217 Senegal 7

3 003401 Serbia and 1

4 400501 Singapore 1

0 000000 Slovakia 0

3 003501 Slovenia 1

1 002220 Somalia 0

36 004665921 South Africa, 20

2 1301128198 Spain 4


0 3702644123 Sudan 26

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 54015827120764 Syria 59

163 00174221058 Taiwan 47



March 2009

(1000 MT)


Beginning Stocks

Ending Stocks



0 5403618612462 Tanzania, United 96

414 05408486369 Thailand 72

0 160327179 Togo 7

19 20192423 Tunisia 3

468 3801,0231,393501424 Turkey 332

0 114096437294143 Turkmenistan 227

0 1604352213 Uganda 14

11 00111403 Ukraine 3


1 2,61388165,0262,8382,187 United States 1,589

0 000100 Uruguay 0

0 65302291,3711,089283 Uzbekistan, 489

4 001623135 Venezuela 7

229 00229287652 Vietnam 58

0 90516142 Yemen 2

0 27017824735 Zambia 37

0 7132013710037 Zimbabwe 44

World

6,333 6,326-53624,19243,60023,65513,613 World 13,619


March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2007/2008

Area Harvested



Country

85 0709801350 Afghanistan 15

1 035423471 Albania 0

0 020272070 Algeria 0

5 0510322 Angola 3

703 98251,627181743310 Argentina 14


620 -50501,79901,17965 Australia 1,219

0 045635490 Austria 3

175 065285110980 Azerbaijan, 121

0 0758975140 Bahrain 0

39 102,7503,3442,80050529 Bangladesh 0

0 030353050 Belarus 0


500 0106480148234 Benin 500

48 070115283920 Bolivia 5

7,360 -1504,60012,9321645,4081,077 Brazil 2,231

10 0607350132 Bulgaria 0

675 049810306400 Burkina 775

270 0180343073300 Burma, Union of 90

0 020262060 Cambodia 0

210 0453100100140 Cameroon 200

0 0506240220 Canada 0


190 015253063180 Chad 175

0 0607861170 Chile 0

37,000 -2,50051,50069,06611,53020,5366,200 China, Peoples 62

192 541050420410842 Colombia 2



225 0504480223200 Cote d'Ivoire 225

0 034220 Croatia 0

4 045494054 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 011100 Denmark 0


March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2007/2008 (Continued)

Area Harvested



Country


9 0759269143 Ecuador 0

1,000 139502,253450803240 Egypt 629

1 0145178143341 El Salvador 0

0 015241770 Estonia 1

85 07510602160 Ethiopia 10

0 0100131106250 France 14

0 0230323287360 Germany 55

23 0153801515 Ghana 15

1,325 503001,79020445315 Greece 1,050

3 0125142114252 Guatemala 0

14 00190514 Guinea 15

5 01011517 Haiti 0

4 023291962 Honduras 0

0 03005084001080 Hong Kong 94

0 01012840 Hungary 0

24,600 018,30032,7144507,6649,439 India 7,030

32 502,2252,6842,30035210 Indonesia 20

400 0620825250175120 Iran 25

30 0100119701920 Iraq 0

0 022200 Ireland 0

82 0412854113 Israel 90

0 0475563484790 Italy 23

0 0585673581920 Japan 0

625 05076636105200 Kazakhstan, 530

25 05580401537 Kenya 10


1 01,0001,2429752661 Korea, Republic of 4

150 0519704735 Kyrgyzstan, 150

0 034220 Latvia 0

0 034310 Lebanon 0


1 020242031 Macedonia, 0

60 0507101130 Madagascar 10

130 0521608670 Malawi 115


March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area Harvested



Country

0 0200231198330 Malaysia 2

450 0236400190284 Mali 500

0 0150184160240 Mauritius 0

620 252,0003,1771,5301,027110 Mexico 220


1 0175210180291 Morocco 0

115 010178063196 Mozambique 110



5 048035 Niger 1

450 035063970119395 Nigeria 150

8,900 2512,50017,4254,1504,3753,000 Pakistan 300

0 000000 Panama 0

100 030164105460 Paraguay 80

300 052591427034490 Peru 4


0 0707763140 Poland 1

1 0250329247811 Portugal 2

0 0202717100 Romania 1

0 01,2251,4221,2002220 Russian Federation 0

88 02012904144 Senegal 75

0 014181440 Serbia and 0

0 00232030 Singapore 20

0 000000 Slovakia 0

0 020272160 Slovenia 1

7 010113112 Somalia 0

46 023533017510910 South Africa, 0

185 090257135954 Spain 132


110 08274016460 Sudan 160

0 000000 Sweden 0


1,150 07251,4690319200 Syria 450

0 01,0251,2909643260 Taiwan 0



March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area Harvested



Country

310 01706050295450 Tanzania, United 150

15 251,9502,2951,9283528 Thailand 4

110 01515704765 Togo 100

10 09011390132 Tunisia 10

3,100 06,0008,3193,2681,951520 Turkey 370

1,300 04401,8990599600 Turkmenistan 800

60 020145085270 Uganda 65

0 0607457170 Ukraine 0


19,207 3924,60928,698129,4794,245 United States 13,653

0 023210 Uruguay 0

5,500 01,0006,69801,1981,450 Uzbekistan, 4,400

60 075100172310 Venezuela 0

26 09501,18895021213 Vietnam 0

65 025740940 Yemen 40

160 0803650205200 Zambia 125

475 15906760201380 Zimbabwe 400

World

120,551 -2,081122,744221,64038,26862,82133,088 World 38,455


March 2009

(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2007/2008

Area Harvested

ExportsEnding Stocks

LossUseImportsProductionBeginning Stocks

Country

19 30150311 Afghanistan 3

0 208720 Albania 0

0 204420 Algeria 0

1 001100 Angola 1

153 17021803916267 Argentina 3


135 126-1111025714 Australia 265

0 30101220 Austria 1

38 2201402417 Azerbaijan, 26

0 30161630 Bahrain 0

8 12725996101106 Bangladesh 0

0 107710 Belarus 0


109 300203251 Benin 109

10 9015684 Bolivia 1

1,602 1,361-331,002361,177234 Brazil 486

2 30131130 Bulgaria 0

147 440106787 Burkina 169

59 1603901665 Burma, Union of 20

0 104410 Cambodia 0

46 1401002230 Cameroon 44

0 3011950 Canada 0


41 140301439 Chad 38

0 40131340 Chile 0

8,056 4,355-54411,2132,5104,4711,350 China, Peoples 13

42 1918944249 Colombia 0



49 3801104944 Cote d'Ivoire 49

0 001000 Croatia 0

1 1010911 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


March 2009

(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2007/2008 (Continued)

Area Harvested



Country


2 40161531 Ecuador 0

218 14432079817552 Egypt 137

0 70323170 El Salvador 0

0 203420 Estonia 0

19 50160513 Ethiopia 2

0 40222350 France 3

0 80506280 Germany 12

5 203033 Ghana 3

288 85116549769 Greece 229

1 40272550 Guatemala 0

3 100013 Guinea 3

1 002102 Haiti 0

1 105410 Honduras 0

0 2506587240 Hong Kong 20

0 002210 Hungary 0

5,356 1,60803,984981,6692,055 India 1,531

7 8511484501772 Indonesia 4

87 390135543826 Iran 5

7 40221544 Iraq 0

0 000000 Ireland 0

18 701193 Israel 20

0 140103105170 Italy 5

0 190127126200 Japan 0

136 4001182344 Kazakhstan, 115

5 3012938 Kenya 2


0 520218212580 Korea, Republic of 1

33 9010108 Kyrgyzstan, 33

0 001000 Latvia 0

0 001100 Lebanon 0


0 104410 Macedonia, 0

13 2011027 Madagascar 2

28 210101915 Malawi 25


March 2009

(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area Harvested



Country

0 60444370 Malaysia 0

98 250504162 Mali 109

0 70333550 Mauritius 0

135 203543533322424 Mexico 48


0 80383960 Morocco 0

25 130201443 Mozambique 24



1 101011 Niger 0

98 30076152686 Nigeria 33

1,938 1,00252,722904953653 Pakistan 65

0 000000 Panama 0

22 120721213 Paraguay 17

65 840114597520 Peru 1


0 10151430 Poland 0

0 1705454180 Portugal 0

0 104420 Romania 0

0 430267261480 Russian Federation 0

19 7040910 Senegal 16

0 103310 Serbia and 0

0 100410 Singapore 4

0 000000 Slovakia 0

0 104510 Slovenia 0

2 002103 Somalia 0

10 2105138242 South Africa, 0

40 802031312 Spain 29


24 230203613 Sudan 35

0 000000 Sweden 0


250 64015806944 Syria 98

0 580223210710 Taiwan 0



March 2009

(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area Harvested



Country

67 6203706498 Tanzania, United 33

3 695425420772 Thailand 1

24 90301014 Togo 22

2 30202030 Tunisia 2

675 42401,306712425113 Turkey 81

283 1430960130131 Turkmenistan 174

13 130401959 Uganda 14

0 30131240 Ukraine 0


4,182 2,187851,00432,064924 United States 2,973

0 000000 Uruguay 0

1,197 28302180261316 Uzbekistan, 958

13 5016452 Venezuela 0

6 520207207463 Vietnam 0

14 205029 Yemen 9

35 3501704544 Zambia 27

103 3732004483 Zimbabwe 87

World

26,247 13,613-45326,7258,33213,6787,204 World 8,373


March 2009

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 09: World Cotton Supply and Distribution

Area Harvested

LossUseExportsTotal Supply


Country Mktg Year

World

World

63,908 61,02226,441113,40827,12022,38033,576 1977/78 308

59,496 63,22927,253112,26227,12925,63732,814 1978/79 -76

65,446 65,90430,662117,80830,50621,85632,219 1979/80 10

63,377 65,02126,265111,86227,25321,23232,369 1980/81 -33

68,839 63,30925,764115,14625,69820,60932,938 1981/82 239

66,332 66,96625,515118,23726,07125,83431,394 1982/83 302

66,277 68,68025,333118,79027,05925,45430,920 1983/84 496

88,706 70,81627,200140,61627,62924,28133,741 1984/85 474

80,142 75,33028,078151,24928,98142,12631,581 1985/86 252

70,359 82,09533,350151,04133,09347,58929,347 1986/87 179

81,446 84,14630,103147,39230,52935,41730,871 1987/88 534

84,220 85,23833,481150,41133,58232,60933,831 1988/89 642

79,716 86,90531,357143,46932,70331,05031,696 1989/90 234

87,149 85,52429,560142,70030,57824,97333,151 1990/91 170

95,295 86,19228,249151,76329,02227,44634,786 1991/92 368

82,348 86,33225,475146,35527,05336,95432,667 1992/93 63

77,720 85,55026,660140,15627,95134,48530,743 1993/94 143

86,345 84,61728,157144,43530,28727,80332,278 1994/95 -330

93,873 85,94027,361152,86126,99731,99135,947 1995/96 -544

90,115 87,93626,838158,79628,57740,10433,769 1996/97 -585

92,281 87,26726,722162,81625,92844,60733,800 1997/98 -581

86,096 84,76023,524159,98424,48049,40832,894 1998/99 -1,114

87,964 91,08227,170168,75427,97652,81432,356 1999/00 -602

89,099 92,15826,200166,43026,22751,10432,016 2000/01 -1,339

98,702 94,44229,149177,41729,30449,41133,728 2001/02 -706

90,977 98,39030,457175,69630,18754,53230,752 2002/03 -779

96,758 98,02333,198178,39834,01247,62832,310 2003/04 -884

121,437 108,65935,014202,94733,44948,06135,709 2004/05 -1,170

116,579 116,33044,584221,50744,48460,44434,737 2005/06 -1,619

121,990 123,43337,096221,60937,40762,21234,705 2006/07 -1,741

120,551 122,74438,455221,64038,26862,82133,088 2007/08 -2,081

108,645 111,11329,053200,25229,08562,52231,026 2008/09 -2,463


March 2009

Table 10: United States Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Yield Beginning Stocks

Production Imports Total Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending Stocks

Stock to Use %

United States

324,221-3057,7695,31116,9963413,7043,2585685,255 1972/73

283,808-1607,4726,12317,2434812,9744,2215834,844 1973/74

585,708-1125,8603,92615,3823411,5403,8084945,086 1974/75

353,681-1407,2503,31114,102928,3025,7085083,560 1975/76

262,928-866,6744,78414,3003810,5813,6815224,417 1976/77

455,34786,4835,48417,322514,3892,9285835,372 1977/78

323,958-2836,3526,18016,207410,8565,3474715,018 1978/79

193,000-1436,5069,22918,592514,6293,9586135,193 1979/80

232,668-3355,8915,92614,1502811,1223,0004535,348 1980/81

566,632-1235,2646,56718,3402615,6462,6686085,601 1981/82

747,937-425,5135,20718,6152011,9636,6326613,939 1982/83

222,7752385,9216,78615,720127,7717,9375692,973 1983/84

354,102-745,5386,21515,7812412,9822,7756734,200 1984/85

1129,348-1546,4131,96017,5673313,4324,1027064,140 1985/86

365,026-807,4526,68419,08239,7319,3486183,427 1986/87

415,771-1827,6176,58219,788214,7605,0267924,059 1987/88

517,0921657,7826,14821,187515,4115,7716944,835 1988/89

183,000-1638,7597,69419,290212,1967,0926883,860 1989/90

142,344-2858,6577,79318,509415,5053,0007114,748 1990/91

233,70489,6136,64619,9711317,6142,3447315,245 1991/92

304,662-19010,2505,20119,923116,2183,7047854,501 1992/93

203,530-810,4186,86220,802616,1344,6626795,173 1993/94

132,650-3811,1989,40223,2122019,6623,5307945,391 1994/95

142,6092710,6477,67520,95840817,9002,6506026,478 1995/96

223,971-811,1266,86521,95440318,9422,6097915,216 1996/97

213,8874111,3497,50022,7771318,7933,9717545,425 1997/98

273,939-39410,4014,29818,24443913,9183,8877014,324 1998/99

233,91514510,1946,75021,0049716,9683,9396805,433 1999/00

386,000-4838,8626,74021,1191617,1883,9157085,282 2000/01

407,4481807,69611,00026,3242120,3036,0007905,596 2001/02

285,3851667,27311,90024,7246717,2097,4487465,025 2002/03

173,4502116,26613,75823,6854518,2555,3858184,858 2003/04

265,4951086,69114,43626,7302923,2513,4509585,284 2004/05

266,069-765,87117,54929,4132823,8905,4959315,586 2005/06

539,4792524,93513,01027,6761921,5886,0699125,152 2006/07

5510,0443924,60913,65328,6981219,2079,4799854,245 2007/08

467,300353,75012,00023,085513,03610,0449073,128 2008/09


March 2009

Table 11: Foreign Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Yield Beginning Stocks

Production Imports Total Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending Stocks

Total Foreign

20,26619651,73022,50594,69727,34348,16319,19137128,285 1972/73

23,35022352,79620,09796,46626,69649,50420,26638528,001 1973/74

27,64422351,18120,36999,41723,79052,27723,35040028,421 1974/75

22,22028554,35022,65699,51126,19445,67327,64437826,310 1975/76

19,45222453,56419,81993,05924,89345,94622,22038326,116 1976/77

20,29030054,53920,95796,08627,11549,51919,45238228,204 1977/78

17,89820756,87721,07396,05527,12548,64020,29038127,796 1978/79

18,23215359,39821,43399,21630,50150,81717,89840927,026 1979/80

17,94130259,13020,33997,71227,22552,25518,23242127,021 1980/81

19,20236258,04519,19796,80625,67253,19317,94142427,337 1981/82

17,51734461,45320,30899,62226,05154,36919,20243127,455 1982/83

21,50625862,75918,547103,07027,04758,50617,51745627,947 1983/84

38,02454865,27820,985124,83527,60575,72421,50655829,541 1984/85

38,24140668,91726,118133,68228,94866,71038,02452927,441 1985/86

30,39125974,64326,666131,95933,09060,62838,24150925,920 1986/87

26,83871676,52923,521127,60430,52766,68630,39154226,812 1987/88

23,95847777,45627,333129,22433,57768,80926,83851728,996 1988/89

21,97339778,14623,663124,17932,70167,52023,95852827,836 1989/90

25,10245576,86721,767124,19130,57471,64421,97354928,403 1990/91

33,25036076,57921,603131,79229,00977,68125,10257329,541 1991/92

29,82325376,08220,274126,43227,05266,13033,25051128,166 1992/93

24,27315175,13219,798119,35427,94561,58629,82352425,570 1993/94

29,341-29273,41918,755121,22330,26766,68324,27354026,887 1994/95

37,495-57175,29319,686131,90326,58975,97329,34156129,469 1995/96

40,636-57776,81019,973136,84228,17471,17337,49554328,553 1996/97

45,521-62275,91819,222140,03925,91573,48840,63656428,375 1997/98

48,875-72074,35919,226141,74024,04172,17845,52155028,570 1998/99

47,189-74780,88820,420147,75027,87970,99648,87557426,923 1999/00

43,411-85683,29619,460145,31126,21171,91147,18958626,734 2000/01

47,084-88686,74618,149151,09329,28378,39943,41160728,132 2001/02

42,243-94591,11718,557150,97230,12073,76847,08462425,727 2002/03

44,611-1,09591,75719,440154,71333,96778,50342,24362327,452 2003/04

54,949-1,278101,96820,578176,21733,42098,18644,61170330,425 2004/05

56,143-1,543110,45927,035192,09444,45692,68954,94969229,151 2005/06

53,342-1,993118,49824,086193,93337,388100,40256,14374029,553 2006/07

52,478-2,473118,13524,802192,94238,256101,34453,34276528,843 2007/08

55,249-2,498107,36317,053177,16729,08095,60952,47874627,898 2008/09


March 2009

despite higher world demand, u.s. exports to decline in ... · pakistan 2007/08 0 0 0 250 30 100 0...

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