detailed market analysis
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Excellent presentation with detailed statistics on Vancouver's housing market future.TRANSCRIPT
Housing Update and OutlookHousing Update and Outlook
Western Provinces
Robyn AdamacheSenior Market Analyst
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Today’s Talk
Demand Fundamentals
Resale Market Update & OutlookResale Market Update & Outlook
Housing Demand Fundamentals Stable
Mortgage rates favourable
Population based demand growing
J b Job picture to improve
Renovation spending strongRenovation spending strong
Mortgage Rates to Remain Favourable
10Per Cent
Posted 1 and 5 Year Mortgage Rates
8
10
5-year fixed
6
4 1-year fixed
2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Bank of Canada
Mortgage Rates: Now and Then
Posted 5 Year Mortgage Rates(1978 1983) (2005 2010)
20
Per Cent (1978-1983) vs (2005-2010)
10
15
5
10
0
19782005
19822009
19812008
19802007
19792006
19832010
Source: Bank of Canada
2005 2009200820072006 2010
Migration to Increase Next Year
Migration into Western ProvincesNotable Migration Facts
60000
Interprovincial
• Alberta highest between provinces• More people are leaving Manitoba
40000
More people are leaving Manitoba
International
• Majority is from other countries
20000
Majority is from other countries• BC highest among Western provinces
0
BC Alberta Sask Manitoba
2008 2009 2010F 2011F
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecasts
Unemployment Moves Lower
10
6
8
4
2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
BC Alberta
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculation
Unemployment Moves Lower
10
6
8
4
2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sask Manitoba
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Calculation
Job Growth Next Year
2 3%
2010F 2011F
2.1%2.0%
2.3%
1.9% 1.9%
1 6%
1.3%
1.6%
0.5%
BC Alberta Sask Man
Source: CMHC Forecasts
Economy Expands in Western Provinces
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
2%
4%
2%
4%
2%
4%
2%
4%
0%
2010 2011
0%
2010 2011
0%
2010 2011
0%
2010 2011
Source: CMHC Forecasts
Renovation Expenditures to Increase
Renovation ExpenditureMilli $
$8,000
pMillions $
$4,000
$6,000
$2,000
$0
BC Alberta Sask Manitoba
2009 2010f 2011f
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecasts
Housing Demand Steady
Stable demand fundamentals
Mortgage rates to remain favourable
Tourism Victoria
Population based demand growing
J b k i i i dJob markets improving as economies expand
Resale Market
BC Sales to Improve in 2011
BC Residential Sales 120,000
MLS® Sales
90,000
60,000
30,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F2011F 2009 2010
Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F2011F 2009 YTD
2010 YTD
Market Conditions Move in Tandem
100%MLS® Sales to New Listings Ratio
80% Sellers’ REBGV
60%
B l d40%
Buyers’
Balanced
FVREB
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
y
Most Lower Mainland Markets Balanced
Buyers’
Squamish
North VanWest Van
Buyers’BalancedSellers’
Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadow
Tri-cities
BurnabyESide
W Side
Richmond
New West
Delta LangleySurrey
Whit R k
Abbotsford
White Rock
Home Price Growth to Slow
$800,000MLS® Average Price (SA) (Greater Vancouver)
ForecastMar 10 $690K
Sept 10 $700,000
Feb 08 $620K
$690K$680K
$600,000
$620K
$500,000
Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11
Detached House Prices Grow Fastest
1.20Index of MLS® Average Price
1.10
Apartment Townhouse Detached
1.00
0.90
0.80
Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10
Victoria – Borderline Buyers’ Market
Victoria Real Estate
$500,000
$600,000
100%
120%
Victoria Real Estate
Seller’s
$300,000
$400,000
60%
80%
Balanced
$0
$100,000
$200,000
0%
20%
40%
Buyer’s$00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Northern Real Estate Balanced
$300 000100%
BC Northern Real Estate
$200,000
$300,000
80%
100%Seller’sSeller’s
$100,000
$200,000
40%
60%BalancedBalanced
$00%
20% Buyer’sBuyer’s
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Kelowna in Buyers’ Market Conditions
Okanagan Mainline Real Estate$500,000
80%
Okanagan Mainline Real Estate
Seller’s
$300,000
40%
60%
BalancedBalanced
$100 000
$100,000
0%
20%
Buyer’s-$100,0000%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Alberta Sales to Steady in 2011
BC Residential Sales 90,000
MLS® Sales
60 00060,000
30,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010
Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD
2010 YTD
Sellers’ Conditions in Fort McMurray
$500 000
$600,000
100%
120%
Fort McMurray Real Estate
Seller’s
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
60%
80%
100%
B l d
$100,000
$200,000
20%
40%
Buyer’s
Balanced
$00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Priceg g
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Edmonton Market Balanced
Edmonton Real Estate
$300,000
$400,000
100%
120%Edmonton Real Estate
Seller’s
$200,000
40%
60%
80%
Balanced
$0
$100,000
0%
20%
40%
Buyer’s
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Calgary Market Borderline Balanced
Calgary Real Estate
$400,000
$500,000
100%
120%
Calgary Real Estate
Seller’s
$200,000
$300,000
40%
60%
80%
Balanced
$0
$100,000
0%
20%
40%
Buyer’s
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Saskatchewan Sales Up Modestly in 2011
BC Residential Sales 15,000
MLS® Sales
12,000
6 000
9,000
3,000
6,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010
Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD
2010 YTD
Regina Market in Sellers’ Conditions
Regina Real Estate
$300,000
80%
100%
Regina Real Estate
Seller’s
$200,000
40%
60%
80%
Balanced
$0
$100,000
0%
20%
40%
Buyer’s
$00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Saskatoon Market Balanced
$300,000100%
Saskatoon Real Estate
Seller’s
$200,00060%
80%
Balanced
$100,000
20%
40%
Buyer’s
$00%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Priceg g
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Manitoba Sales Stable in 2011
BC Residential Sales 15,000
MLS® Sales
12,000
6 000
9,000
3,000
6,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010
Source: MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), CMHC Forecasts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 YTD
2010 YTD
Winnipeg Market Hot
Winnipeg Real Estate$300,000
80%
100%
Winnipeg Real Estate
Seller’s
$100 000
$200,000
40%
60%Balanced
$0
$100,000
0%
20%Buyer’s
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sales to New Listings Ratio Average Price
Source: Canadian Real Estate AssociationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
Wrap Up
Stable demand fundamentals bode well for western marketsStable demand fundamentals bode well for western markets
Alberta & some BC communities slower to recoverAlberta & some BC communities slower to recover
Modest price gains expected
Thank You!!
For More Information Contact:
Robyn AdamacheRobyn [email protected] Tel: 604-737-4144
Access Free Market Analysis Reports Online:http://www cmhc-schl gc ca/en/inpr/homain/index cfmhttp://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/inpr/homain/index.cfmIncluding: Rental Market Reports & Forecast Reports (Housing Market Outlook)