detecting and documenting biodiversity dynamics in the face of global change
TRANSCRIPT
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Detecting and Documenting Biodiversity Dynamics in the Face
of Global Change
A. Townsend PetersonUniversity of Kansas
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Studying Drivers of Biodiversity Change• Many potential drivers: land use change, direct
exploitation, climate change, sea level change…
• Anticipate future change: requires present-day model, and future projections of drivers
• Document change to date: requires detailed before-and-after views of distributions, abundances, and/or conservation status
• We will explore both of these approaches…
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Point-based Distributional Data
• Definition: data records placing a particular species at a particular location at a particular point in time
• Primary data – this is the basis of all other distributional data
• Abundant – millions of specimens, probably billions of observations are ‘out there’
• Major initiatives – ORNIS, eBird, GBIF, etc.• Dimensionless – a point has no area; biodiversity
‘points’ have only a basement level of uncertainty• Useful at any resolution above the basement level
of uncertainty
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PROJECTIONS TO FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS…
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Ecological Niche Modeling
• Empirical, data-driven search for associations between occurrence and environment
• Significant predictive ability in hundreds of studies
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ADD EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE
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Sea Level Rise and Coastline Effects
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US Effects
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COMPLEMENT vs OVERLAP?
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MEASURING AVIFAUNAL TURNOVER IN RECENT HISTORICAL TIMES…
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Well-sampled Recent Grid Squares
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Species Gains
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Species Losses
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Overall Species Turnover
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Significant Drivers of Turnover
• Observed precipitation change – NO significant effect
• Observed temperature change – YES – strong significant effects
• Human impact on landscapes – NO significant effect
• BUT – results are coarse in nature …
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Misantla, Veracruz
Valley of Mexico
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Methods IIICheck coincidence between the two
sources
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Quiscalus palustris
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Sandhill CraneGrus canadensisPresent-day distribution
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"Oldmexicocity" by Juan Gómez de Trasmonte, 1628 (d. 17th century) - Mexico Maxico. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oldmexicocity.jpg#/media/File:Oldmexicocity.jpg
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Gran Canal outlet in Zumpango: «Cajas del desagüe del gran canal (1)» de Marrovi - Trabajo propio. Disponible bajo la licencia CC BY-SA 3.0 vía Wikimedia Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cajas_del_desag%C3%BCe_del_gran_canal_(1).JPG#/media/File:Cajas_del_desag%C3%BCe_del_gran_canal_(1).JPG
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Misantla, Veracruz
• 2012 thesis in the Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM
• Site well known and well characterized from early ornithological collections…
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Misantla 2001-2012
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Misantla 1850-present
"Battle of Veracruz" by Adolphe Jean-Baptiste Bayot - Originally published in The War Between the United States and Mexico, Illustrated, 1851. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Battle_of_Veracruz.jpg#/media/File:Battle_of_Veracruz.jpg
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Observed Change … Summary
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Can we do this in India?
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What’s Missing?
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BIODIVERSITY INFORMATICS: MAKING PRIMARY BIODIVERSITY DATA AVAILABLE
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Biodiversity Informatics Training Curriculum Courses
• Data Capture• Biodiversity Inventories• Data Cleaning• Data Publishing• Biodiversity Data Analysis• Species Descriptions• Using R• Using QGIS• Possibly modules on
Refine, EstimateS (under development)
• Public Health Applications
• Ecological Niche Modeling
• National Biodiversity Diagnoses
• Conservation Implementation
• Building Biodiversity Informatics Institutions
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Project Webpage
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Communications - Facebook
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Interchange – Scientific Journal
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BITC Version 1.1
• The curriculum is basically complete– 500+ videos make up the present curriculum
version, covering topics from data capture to building institutions
• The curriculum is available– online via the project webpage– in pdf format via Biodiversity Informatics (soon to
appear)– on USB keys and in DVD formats (by request)
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Summary• Biodiversity is highly dynamic, but the natural
dynamics are augmented by anthropogenic change in recent decades
• Studying biodiversity change is complex:– Future projections are hypothetical and hard to test– Assessments of change already realized are highly
dependent on before-and-after datasets• Creativity is key in making these studies possible• Access to abundant and comprehensive data is
crucial to any advances
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Links
• Town Peterson [email protected]
• BITC webpage http://biodiversity-informatics-training.org/ • Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/groups/BiodiversityInformatics/