detecting threats and warning leaders
TRANSCRIPT
What is the Goal?
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• To “sound an alarm, give notice and admonishing advice to policy-makers” (Gates)
• Especially:, Provide explicit
warnings on “known” issues of major concern
, Alert policy-makers to the potential and implications of emerging challenges and opportunities at the earliest possible juncture
Tunisian’s Suicide Will Go Viral!Igniting Instability Across Arab World!Egypt, Libya, Syria, Others Affected!
Global Impacts … IS, Migration Crisis, etc.!You Need to do Something!
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Enduring Challenges• A tough business, even under the best circumstances
– complex issues, set in the future, significant uncertainties, high stakes
• Defining the mission• 3-Bears expectations• Product/output• Success metrics• Finding the right place to
“plug in”• Maintaining the mindset• Training, time, resources• Not wanting to be wrong
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Temptation to Warn of Everything …
… Or Report Anything
The Ideal Analytic Output• Timely
– Detects the earliest signs – Responsive to policy-maker timelines
• Credible– Uncertainties, gaps, assumptions and confidence are transparent– Considers and examines plausible alternatives– Convincingly delivered (sound, concise, tailored)
• Actionable – Evaluates impact (the event) and implications (aftermath)– Addresses context, direction, speed, completeness– Anticipates (posits) next steps … and potential triggers?– Identifies potential points of leverage/influence– Assesses potential for additional warning
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In a Perfect World • Early, frequent, iterative
engagement with policy-makers • Focused on changing risk equation
(not a predictive call)• Generating timely, credible,
actionable insights• Enabling better decisions, broader
options, increased resiliency• Promoting strategic action (dynamic analytic support to):
– Shape outcomes to achieve objectives– Prepare better for outcomes that were not fully shaped– Mitigate impacts of outcomes that were not fully prepared for– Optimize the post-crisis environment
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Not So Easy to Get RightAssuming you see it coming …• The audience is pre-occupied … they might not be receptive
• They have biases too … and other sources of information
• You’re asking them to embrace a major discontinuity … potential changes that may never materialize … a very tough sell
• Your case likely rests more on rational possibilities than evidence
• You hope to leave them worried (thanks!) … they may just be complacent … or angry
• They expect you to get it “just right” … not too early or too late• Other experts disagree … they may try to
push you toward consensus• An ounce of prevention is hard to measure• Nobody, especially you, wants to be wrong• “Crying Sheep” (McCarthy)
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So … You Should• Engage as early and often as
you can • Avoid either/or calls• Be careful not to hype the
issue• Use any surrogate access• Work hard to build trust
, The “Powell Dictum” (what you know, don’t know, and think)
• Be persistent, tough-minded, creative, calculating … • Remember: fundamentals
and system
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It Helps to Have a System• Understanding and articulating
“normal”– Patterns, developments, conditions,
behaviors, actions, etc. that define the steady state
• Being able to recognize important deviations– Sources, metrics, analytic criteria,
etc. that help you detect significant change
• Knowing when (and when not) to warn– Reporting thresholds … how far
away from normal before you tell somebody
Normal
Elevated
SignificantConcern
Critical
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What Does Your Policy-Maker Need?• What would they most like to know if they could
know anything?• What is their definition (strategic vision) of
success? • What are the top several things they most want
to accomplish? … most need to avoid?• What are their biggest concerns/fears?
• What are the implications of not achieving their vision?• What needs to change in order for them to be successful?• What developments (successes and failures) over the recent past
are most instructive?• What must be done now/next (the priority first/next step)?• What one thing would they do if they could do anything?
Other Questions for You• What is the critical information
I must convey … in initial and subsequent interactions?
• What factors are causing me concern … how do I track and measure them?
• Who is my audience?
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• What are the principal obstacles to my effectively communicating this warning?
• What if I am not successful?• What opportunities/advantages do I have?• What is my most likely/effective means of conveyance?• What questions can I anticipate?• What are the main counter arguments?
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Be Creative … and PersistentStructured Analytic Techniques:• Point-Counterpoint Workshops• Timeline-Indicator Assessments• Key Assumptions Checks• Drivers-Constraints
Analyses• Engaging Outside
Experts• Opportunity
Assessments
• Games• Scenarios• What-If
Exercises
Understand the Pitfalls• Consensus cultures (don’t rock the boat)• Functional specialization (experts rule)• Integration (old/new, regional/functional, etc.)• Imagination (that hasn’t happened before)• Mirror imaging (they’ll do what we would do)• Perception biases/pattern matching (seeing what we
expect to see)
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• Inappropriate analogies (true before, so true again)
• Depending too much on the information we have
• Ego (You can’t fool me)• Negativity bias … remembering
the bad more than the good• Holding on to entrenched beliefs
Deciding When to Warn?• Has/is the risk equation
changed/changing?• Likelihood and Impact?• Approaching a threshold?
• Do other analysts share my concern?• Is the policy community
aware?
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• How long has it been since we last engaged?• Are other narratives overly optimistic?• Has the risk narrative been fragmented?
Helping with Mitigation Options • Do we have the capacity to affect event
likelihood and/or impact? How?• Do we have the option of doing nothing? … or
of “getting out of the business” altogether?• How might we share or deflect the risk?
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• Do we have a warning system in place for this contingency?
• Do we have contingency plans?• Can we adapt? … or hedge
against it?
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Assessing Analytic Confidence
• Complexity• Information• Analytic Expertise• Plausible
Alternatives• Time
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A Useful Writing Style
•Chapeau paragraph provides “bottom line” assessments•Bulleted sub-
paragraphs provide supporting evidence and rationale•Examples at:
http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-nic-publications
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Graphic ShorthandIndicator Status
Normal Elevated Significant Concern Critical
C2 Garrison Status Two Strategic CPs Deployed
3-4 Strategic CPs Deployed
More Than 4 Strategic CPs
Deployed
Logistics Stocks in Depots Local Depots Out-Loaded
Regional Depots Out-Loaded
National Depots Out-Loaded
Combat Forces
Garrison Status 20-25% Out of Garrison
25-50% Out of Garrison
More than 50% Out of Garrison
Strategic Forces
Deterrent Status 25% in Ready Status
More than 25% in Ready Status
Fully Mobilized and Dispersed
Civil Defense Peacetime Status Reserve-Ready Status
Reserve Call-up Underway Full Mobilization
National Reserves
Peacetime Status Single Sector Mobilization
Multiple Sector Mobilization Full MobilizationIndicator
Status15 Aug
Status 15 Sep Direction
Elite Cohesion (Overall Assessment)
Additional attacks on senior leadership Key security elements unwilling to act Desertions/defections among leadership or rank and file
Redeployment to elite heartland Non-elite opposition to regime Evidence of palace coup/attempt (arrests, purges, etc.)
Military/ Security Service/Key Leader Loyalty (Overall Assessment)
Desertion/defections Recruitment (conscription numbers) Casualties Unwillingness to act Coup/attempt (arrests of officers)
Military/Security Service Effectiveness (Overall Assessment)
Declining effectiveness of key units Shortages (numbers, arms, equipment) Logistics shortfalls impacting operations Capacity to seize/hold territory Capacity to project forces anywhere Dependence on militias
Opposition Effectiveness (Overall Assessment)
Numbers (recruits, arms, operations, etc.) Reducing capabilities gap in relationship to regime forces
Clear structure/command and control Capacity to repel regime offensive operations Improved coordination Geographic scope of ops Intelligence capacity Capacity to establish safe-havens
Leadership’s Perspective/Outlook (Overall Assessment)
Public profile Visible signs of strain/isolation Family posture
Indicator Lists
Stoplight Charts
Direction:
Current Status
Velocity: HIGH
Dashboard Displays
MED LOW
Integrated Risk Plots
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Drivers-Constraints Assessments(Will Country “X” Attack Country “Y” by ZZ?)
DRIVERS• “Y’s” Nuclear Progress• Other Actor Equivocation • “Y”s Level of Hostility• Failure of Diplomatic
Processes• “Y’s” Military Advances
----• “Y’s” Domestic Turmoil• “X’s” Leadership Crisis• Situational Specifics
CONSTRAINTS• Proxy Strategic Relations• Uncertainties WRT Mission
Effectiveness• Need to Exhaust Diplomatic
Options----
• “Y’s” Capacity/Options for Retaliation
• Impact on Commodity Prices• Impact on Regional Allies• International Reactions
Assessment: Constraints currently outweigh drivers, but risk increasing over time.Likelihood in next 6 months: 20-30 % (consensus); analytic range <10-to-50%
Specialized Warning Product “Index”Consider Including:
• Clear articulation of the risk/warning issue• Factors/rationale that are causing you concern … how you measure them• How the risk might “plausibly” materialize• Likelihood assessment (is the event becoming more or less likely, within specified
timeframe, with confidence statement)– Problematic, but important
• Potential impact should it materialize– Not strictly an analytical function
– Depends on threat/risk
and exposure/vulnerability
• Assumptions, uncertainties, alternatives• Things to watch for next; triggering events• Potential points of leverage /influence • Potential for additional warning
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And Still They Don’t Listen …
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… So Keep Your Sense of Humor
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Questions?
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Back-Ups
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Why Warning Matters• Turn on the news …• Systematically explore the
implications of multiple possible futures
• Build-in resiliency, flexibility and adaptability ahead of time
• Identify and deal more effectively and creatively with critical uncertainties
• Highlight important potential opportunities • “Test” the viability of key concepts, operating models,
processes, infrastructures, plans and the like against multiple potential futures
Elements of a Systematic Process• Continuous effort to identify existing
and anticipate emerging threats • Conscious prioritization and
evaluation (e.g. likelihood, impact, capacity to influence key factors, etc.)
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• Consistent monitoring of critical factors impacting the warning/risk/opportunity event
• Regular communication with leadership and other stakeholders
• Supporting evaluation of mitigation options?
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Common Causes of Surprise• Deliberate hostile actions • Complex systems that cannot or
will not adapt to change • Second-and-third-order
consequences of known trends and/or complex linkages
• Key actors or institutions behaving differently than in the past
• Sudden technological and/or operational changes
• Natural and human-induced disasters
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But We Can Improve the Odds• Conscious, deliberate, systematic efforts … not just
the by-product of daily activity• 3-dimensional capabilities– Rapid detection for rapid response– Persistent surveillance of known threats– Strategic reconnaissance of emerging issues
• Extensive collaboration and engagement … well beyond your team
• Energizing and focusing the entire enterprise• Specific training and tradecraft• Senior leader endorsement (partnership with analytic
organizations)
Dealing With Experts • What is your assessment of XX … in XX timeframe?• Why do you think that? (assumptions, evidence,
rationale, uncertainties)• How confident are you in your assessment?• Does anyone disagree with you? … Why?• How recent is your most critical information?• Has your assessment changed over time?• What is the latest big thing you have had
to factor in? • What would change your assessment?
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• What would you like to know that you don’t?• How are you most likely to be wrong?• What are the implications if you are wrong?• When was the last time you were wrong?
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Matching Methodologies to Problems• Where is the issue on the analytic continuum (known? …
knowable? … complex? … chaotic?)• What information would you like to have to address your
issue with high confidence? How does that compare with the information you have or are likely to get?
• Who is your primary intended consumer? What is his/her decision ‘space’ … time horizon … risk tolerance?
• How much time do you have?• How do you plan to deal
(explicitly) with uncertainty?• What is the best (or most likely)
method of conveyance?• What methodologies are most
appropriate to your issue?
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5 Useful Things to Have in Place• Structured analytic approaches tailored to
the problem• Comprehensive
information strategies • Communities of interest
effectively linking stakeholders
• Regular dialogue with customers
• Designated analytic leads
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Six Essential Warning Skills
• Capacity for strategic analysis
• Leadership, people, communications
• Understanding the analysis-policy nexus
• ‘Wisdom of the Ages’
• Full suite of analytic approaches
• Methodology-to-problem matching